BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
I initially gathered these figures (based on opening lines) together midway through the 06-07 season, to test the veracity of the belief that said the time to fade teams off longish road trips (longish = 4 or more games in length, since that usually translates to at least a week's absence from ones own home court) was in their first game back home.
The clear message from these (fully updated) figures is - it isn't the 1st game back @home where you find a real advantage in fading a team, it's in their 2nd game back.
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The overall ATS figures for the last 21 seasons (excluding Covid venue-affected '20-21) are as follows -
For the 1st game off a 4+ game road trip -- 781-842-32 ....... -61
For the 2nd game off a 4+ game road trip - 723-869-23 ....... -146
The ATS win rate for the 1st game is 48.12% vs. 45.41% for the 2nd game.
Of course the above figures are a lot more involved than what the surface facts provide. Different scenarios & teams means its not always that clean cut to say *never* bet a team in the 2nd game. On this basis, I've broken down each set of stats into the deeper scenarios, for 2 groupings: Teams coming off 4 game road trips, and teams coming off 5+ game road trips...
Please note:
(1) Where 5+ days of rest breaks up a team's road trip all otherwise normally applicable games prior to that break have been excluded. Where 4+ days of rest breaks up a team's twin return games all otherwise normally applicable games after that break have been excluded.
(2) When a team off such a road trip played both 1st & 2nd games back at home against the same opponent, that team's results are excluded.
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The clear message from these (fully updated) figures is - it isn't the 1st game back @home where you find a real advantage in fading a team, it's in their 2nd game back.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall ATS figures for the last 21 seasons (excluding Covid venue-affected '20-21) are as follows -
For the 1st game off a 4+ game road trip -- 781-842-32 ....... -61
For the 2nd game off a 4+ game road trip - 723-869-23 ....... -146
The ATS win rate for the 1st game is 48.12% vs. 45.41% for the 2nd game.
Of course the above figures are a lot more involved than what the surface facts provide. Different scenarios & teams means its not always that clean cut to say *never* bet a team in the 2nd game. On this basis, I've broken down each set of stats into the deeper scenarios, for 2 groupings: Teams coming off 4 game road trips, and teams coming off 5+ game road trips...
Please note:
(1) Where 5+ days of rest breaks up a team's road trip all otherwise normally applicable games prior to that break have been excluded. Where 4+ days of rest breaks up a team's twin return games all otherwise normally applicable games after that break have been excluded.
(2) When a team off such a road trip played both 1st & 2nd games back at home against the same opponent, that team's results are excluded.
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