BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
I initially gathered these figures (based on opening lines) together midway through the 06-07 season, to test the veracity of the belief that said the time to fade teams off longish road trips (longish = 4 or more games in length, since that usually translates to at least a week's absence from ones own home court) was in their first game back home.
The clear message from these (fully updated) figures is - it isn't the 1st game back @home where you find a real advantage in fading a team, it's in their 2nd game back.
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The overall ATS figures fo r the last 19 seasons (sans Covid-19 venue-affected '20-21)are as follows -
For the 1st game off a 4+ game road trip -- 697-744-29 ....... -47
For the 2nd game off a 4+ game road trip - 636-780-23 ....... -144
The ATS win rate for the 1st game is 48.37% vs. 44.91% for the 2nd game.
Of course the above figures are a lot more involved than what the surface facts provide. Different scenarios & teams means its not always that clean cut to say *never* bet a team in the 2nd game. On this basis, I've broken down each set of stats into the deeper scenarios, for 2 groupings: Teams coming off 4 game road trips, and teams coming off 5+ game road trips...
Please note:
(1) Where the All-Star break broke up a team's road trip, or broke up a team's return game/games, they have been excluded.
(2) When a team off such a road trip played both 1st & 2nd games back at home against the same opponent, that team's results are excluded.
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Teams off 4 game road trips
1st Game Back - Eastern teams
Overall ...................................... 175-184-10
As the Fav ..................................... 112-120-5
As the Dog ..................................... 63-64-5
vs. Conference teams ............. 110-114-9
vs. non-Conference teams ...... 65-70-1
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ......................... 77-76-5
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ....................... 33-38-4
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ............... 35-44
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............. 30-26-1
1st Game Back - Western teams
Overall ...................................... 203-207-11
As the Fav ..................................... 149-140-9
As the Dog ..................................... 54-67-2
vs. Conference teams ................. 121-119-8
vs. non-Conference teams ....... 82-88-3
vs. Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 83-78-7
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........................ 38-41-1
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ................ 66-62-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .............. 16-26-1
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2nd game Back - Eastern teams
Home game ...................................... 95-128-5
Road game ........................................ 58-75-3
@Home as a Fav ................................... 59-77-3
@Home as a Dog ................................. 36-51-2
on the Road as a Fav ........................... 16-18-2
on the Road as a Dog ......................... 42-57-1
@Home vs. Conf teams ...................... 68-77-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............ 27-51-4
on the Road vs. Conf teams .............. 50-67-3
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ....... 8-8
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 40-48-1
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 28-29
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 19-29-2
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............ 8-22-2
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 15-17-2
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 35-50-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 1-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 7-7
2nd game Back - Western teams
Home game ..................................... 131-156-4
Road game ......................................... 59-59-1
@Home as a Fav .................................... 94-116-3
@Home as a Dog .................................. 37-40-1
on the Road as a Fav ............................ 16-11
on the Road as a Dog .......................... 43-48-1
@Home vs. Conf teams ....................... 83-103-4
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............. 48-53
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............... 37-51-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ..... 22-8
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 60-77-3
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 23-26-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 34-39
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ........ 14-14
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............... 10-10
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 27-41-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 6-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .. 16-7
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Teams off 5+ game road trips
1st Game Back - Eastern teams
Overall ...................................... 157-175-3
As the Fav ....................................... 99-121-3
As the Dog ..................................... 58-54
vs. Conference teams ................. 101-105-1
vs. non-Conference teams ....... 56-70-2
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ........................... 65-69-1
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ......................... 36-36
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ................. 34-52-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............... 22-18
1st Game Back - Western teams
Overall ...................................... 162-178-5
As the Fav ........................................ 107-129-3
As the Dog ...................................... 55-49-2
vs. Conference teams .................. 97-102-2
vs. non-Conference teams ........ 65-76-3
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............................ 61-68-1
vs. Conf teams as a Dog .......................... 36-34-1
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .................. 46-61-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ................ 19-15-1
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2nd game Back - Eastern teams
Home game ..................................... 110-101-5
Road game ....................................... 48-66-1
@Home as a Fav .................................. 72-71-3
@Home as a Dog ................................ 38-30-2
on the Road as a Fav .......................... 17-11-1
on the Road as a Dog ........................ 31-55
@Home vs. Conf teams ..................... 66-75-4
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ........... 44-26-1
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............. 41-60-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ...... 7-6
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav .................... 46-54-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog .................. 20-21-2
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 26-17-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 18-9
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 13-10-1
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 28-50
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 4-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 3-5
2nd game Back - Western teams
Home game ....................................... 94-134-2
Road game ......................................... 40-61-2
@Home as a Fav ..................................... 64-85-2
@Home as a Dog ................................... 30-49
on the Road as a Fav ............................. 14-16
on the Road as a Dog ........................... 26-45-2
@Home vs. Conf teams ....................... 62-87-2
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............. 32-47
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............... 33-54-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ........ 7-7-1
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 41-50-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 21-37
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 23-35
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............ 9-12
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 12-13
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 21-41-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 2-3
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 5-4-1
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The majority of teams do not win or lose both games ATS, rather they have a general tendency
to split results over the 2 games (splits incl. a push married w/either a win or loss)...
Off 4 game road trips (last 19 seasons, not incl. venue-affected '20-21)
Win both ......... 22.28%
Split results ..... 48.28%
Lose both ...... 29.44%
Off 5+ game road trips (last 19 seasons, not incl. venue-affected '20-21)
Win both ......... 22.62%
Split results ..... 46.61%
Lose both ...... 30.77%
The clear message from these (fully updated) figures is - it isn't the 1st game back @home where you find a real advantage in fading a team, it's in their 2nd game back.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall ATS figures fo r the last 19 seasons (sans Covid-19 venue-affected '20-21)are as follows -
For the 1st game off a 4+ game road trip -- 697-744-29 ....... -47
For the 2nd game off a 4+ game road trip - 636-780-23 ....... -144
The ATS win rate for the 1st game is 48.37% vs. 44.91% for the 2nd game.
Of course the above figures are a lot more involved than what the surface facts provide. Different scenarios & teams means its not always that clean cut to say *never* bet a team in the 2nd game. On this basis, I've broken down each set of stats into the deeper scenarios, for 2 groupings: Teams coming off 4 game road trips, and teams coming off 5+ game road trips...
Please note:
(1) Where the All-Star break broke up a team's road trip, or broke up a team's return game/games, they have been excluded.
(2) When a team off such a road trip played both 1st & 2nd games back at home against the same opponent, that team's results are excluded.
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Teams off 4 game road trips
1st Game Back - Eastern teams
Overall ...................................... 175-184-10
As the Fav ..................................... 112-120-5
As the Dog ..................................... 63-64-5
vs. Conference teams ............. 110-114-9
vs. non-Conference teams ...... 65-70-1
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ......................... 77-76-5
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ....................... 33-38-4
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ............... 35-44
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............. 30-26-1
1st Game Back - Western teams
Overall ...................................... 203-207-11
As the Fav ..................................... 149-140-9
As the Dog ..................................... 54-67-2
vs. Conference teams ................. 121-119-8
vs. non-Conference teams ....... 82-88-3
vs. Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 83-78-7
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........................ 38-41-1
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ................ 66-62-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .............. 16-26-1
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2nd game Back - Eastern teams
Home game ...................................... 95-128-5
Road game ........................................ 58-75-3
@Home as a Fav ................................... 59-77-3
@Home as a Dog ................................. 36-51-2
on the Road as a Fav ........................... 16-18-2
on the Road as a Dog ......................... 42-57-1
@Home vs. Conf teams ...................... 68-77-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............ 27-51-4
on the Road vs. Conf teams .............. 50-67-3
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ....... 8-8
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 40-48-1
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 28-29
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 19-29-2
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............ 8-22-2
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 15-17-2
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 35-50-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 1-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 7-7
2nd game Back - Western teams
Home game ..................................... 131-156-4
Road game ......................................... 59-59-1
@Home as a Fav .................................... 94-116-3
@Home as a Dog .................................. 37-40-1
on the Road as a Fav ............................ 16-11
on the Road as a Dog .......................... 43-48-1
@Home vs. Conf teams ....................... 83-103-4
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............. 48-53
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............... 37-51-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ..... 22-8
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 60-77-3
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 23-26-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 34-39
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ........ 14-14
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............... 10-10
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 27-41-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 6-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .. 16-7
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Teams off 5+ game road trips
1st Game Back - Eastern teams
Overall ...................................... 157-175-3
As the Fav ....................................... 99-121-3
As the Dog ..................................... 58-54
vs. Conference teams ................. 101-105-1
vs. non-Conference teams ....... 56-70-2
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ........................... 65-69-1
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ......................... 36-36
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ................. 34-52-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............... 22-18
1st Game Back - Western teams
Overall ...................................... 162-178-5
As the Fav ........................................ 107-129-3
As the Dog ...................................... 55-49-2
vs. Conference teams .................. 97-102-2
vs. non-Conference teams ........ 65-76-3
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............................ 61-68-1
vs. Conf teams as a Dog .......................... 36-34-1
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .................. 46-61-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ................ 19-15-1
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2nd game Back - Eastern teams
Home game ..................................... 110-101-5
Road game ....................................... 48-66-1
@Home as a Fav .................................. 72-71-3
@Home as a Dog ................................ 38-30-2
on the Road as a Fav .......................... 17-11-1
on the Road as a Dog ........................ 31-55
@Home vs. Conf teams ..................... 66-75-4
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ........... 44-26-1
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............. 41-60-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ...... 7-6
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav .................... 46-54-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog .................. 20-21-2
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 26-17-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 18-9
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 13-10-1
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 28-50
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 4-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 3-5
2nd game Back - Western teams
Home game ....................................... 94-134-2
Road game ......................................... 40-61-2
@Home as a Fav ..................................... 64-85-2
@Home as a Dog ................................... 30-49
on the Road as a Fav ............................. 14-16
on the Road as a Dog ........................... 26-45-2
@Home vs. Conf teams ....................... 62-87-2
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............. 32-47
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............... 33-54-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ........ 7-7-1
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 41-50-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 21-37
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 23-35
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............ 9-12
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 12-13
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 21-41-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 2-3
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 5-4-1
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The majority of teams do not win or lose both games ATS, rather they have a general tendency
to split results over the 2 games (splits incl. a push married w/either a win or loss)...
Off 4 game road trips (last 19 seasons, not incl. venue-affected '20-21)
Win both ......... 22.28%
Split results ..... 48.28%
Lose both ...... 29.44%
Off 5+ game road trips (last 19 seasons, not incl. venue-affected '20-21)
Win both ......... 22.62%
Split results ..... 46.61%
Lose both ...... 30.77%
