BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
I initially gathered these figures (based on opening lines) together midway through the 06-07 season, to test the veracity of the belief that said the time to fade teams off longish road trips (longish = 4 or more games in length, since that usually translates to at least a week's absence from ones own home court) was in their first game back home.
The clear message from these (fully updated) figures is - it isn't the 1st game back @home where you find a real advantage in fading a team, it's in their 2nd game back.
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The overall ATS figures for the last 18 seasons (sans Covid-19 venue-affected '20-21) are as follows -
For the 1st game off a 4+ game road trip -- 647-689-28 ....... -42
For the 2nd game off a 4+ game road trip - 594-720-22 ....... -126
The ATS win rate for the 1st game is 48.43% vs. 45.20% for the 2nd game.
Of course the above figures are a lot more involved than what the surface facts provide. Different scenarios & teams means its not always that clean cut to say *never* bet a team in the 2nd game. On this basis, I've broken down each set of stats into the deeper scenarios, for 2 groupings: Teams coming off 4 game road trips, and teams coming off 5+ game road trips...
Please note:
(1) Where the All-Star break broke up a team's road trip, or broke up a team's return game/games, they have been excluded.
(2) When a team off such a road trip played both 1st & 2nd games back at home against the same opponent, that team's results are excluded.
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Teams off 4 game road trips
1st Game Back - Eastern teams
Overall ...................................... 164-170-10
As the Fav ..................................... 106-111-5
As the Dog ..................................... 58-59-5
vs. Conference teams ............. 105-103-9
vs. non-Conference teams ...... 59-67-1
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ......................... 76-69-5
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ....................... 29-34-4
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ............... 30-42
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............. 29-25-1
1st Game Back - Western teams
Overall ...................................... 190-192-10
As the Fav ..................................... 142-131-8
As the Dog ..................................... 48-61-2
vs. Conference teams ................. 115-113-7
vs. non-Conference teams ....... 75-79-3
vs. Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 78-76-6
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........................ 37-37-1
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ................ 64-55-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .............. 11-24-1
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2nd game Back - Eastern teams
Home game ...................................... 84-118-4
Road game ........................................ 58-71-3
@Home as a Fav ................................... 52-70-2
@Home as a Dog ................................. 32-48-2
on the Road as a Fav ........................... 16-16-2
on the Road as a Dog ......................... 42-55-1
@Home vs. Conf teams ...................... 60-71-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............ 24-47-3
on the Road vs. Conf teams .............. 50-64-3
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ....... 8-7
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 35-45-1
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 25-26
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 17-25-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............ 7-22-2
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 15-15-2
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 35-49-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 1-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 7-6
2nd game Back - Western teams
Home game ..................................... 126-147-4
Road game ......................................... 53-53-1
@Home as a Fav .................................... 91-108-3
@Home as a Dog .................................. 35-39-1
on the Road as a Fav ............................ 13-9
on the Road as a Dog .......................... 40-44-1
@Home vs. Conf teams ....................... 78-100-4
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............. 48-47
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............... 34-45-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ..... 19-8
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 57-74-3
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 21-26-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 34-34
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ........ 14-13
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............... 9-8
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 25-37-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 4-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .. 15-7
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Teams off 5+ game road trips
1st Game Back - Eastern teams
Overall ...................................... 143-165-3
As the Fav ....................................... 88-113-3
As the Dog ..................................... 55-52
vs. Conference teams ................. 95-100-1
vs. non-Conference teams ....... 48-65-2
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ........................... 61-66-1
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ......................... 34-34
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ................. 27-47-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............... 21-18
1st Game Back - Western teams
Overall ...................................... 150-162-5
As the Fav ........................................ 100-118-3
As the Dog ...................................... 50-44-2
vs. Conference teams .................. 94-94-2
vs. non-Conference teams ........ 56-68-3
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............................ 59-61-1
vs. Conf teams as a Dog .......................... 35-33-1
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .................. 41-57-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ................ 15-11-1
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2nd game Back - Eastern teams
Home game ..................................... 100-93-5
Road game ....................................... 47-62-1
@Home as a Fav .................................. 65-67-3
@Home as a Dog ................................ 35-26-2
on the Road as a Fav .......................... 17-10-1
on the Road as a Dog ........................ 30-52
@Home vs. Conf teams ..................... 64-71-4
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ........... 36-22-1
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............. 41-56-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ...... 6-6
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav .................... 44-52-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog .................. 20-19-2
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 21-15-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 15-7
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 13-9-1
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 28-47
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 4-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 2-5
2nd game Back - Western teams
Home game ....................................... 85-119-2
Road game ......................................... 40-57-2
@Home as a Fav ..................................... 59-75-2
@Home as a Dog ................................... 26-44
on the Road as a Fav ............................. 14-14
on the Road as a Dog ........................... 26-43-2
@Home vs. Conf teams ....................... 57-79-2
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............. 28-40
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............... 33-51-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ........ 7-6-1
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 39-44-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 18-35
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 20-31
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............ 8-9
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 12-12
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 21-39-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 2-2
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 5-4-1
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The majority of teams do not win or lose both games ATS, rather they have a general tendency
to split results over the 2 games (splits incl. a push married w/either a win or loss)...
Off 4 game road trips (last 18 seasons, not incl. venue-affected '20-21)
Win both ......... 22.63%
Lose both ........ 29.49%
Split results ..... 47.88%
Off 5+ game road trips (last 18 seasons, not incl. venue-affected '20-21)
Win both ......... 22.71%
Lose both ........ 30.56%
Split results ..... 46.73%
The clear message from these (fully updated) figures is - it isn't the 1st game back @home where you find a real advantage in fading a team, it's in their 2nd game back.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall ATS figures for the last 18 seasons (sans Covid-19 venue-affected '20-21) are as follows -
For the 1st game off a 4+ game road trip -- 647-689-28 ....... -42
For the 2nd game off a 4+ game road trip - 594-720-22 ....... -126
The ATS win rate for the 1st game is 48.43% vs. 45.20% for the 2nd game.
Of course the above figures are a lot more involved than what the surface facts provide. Different scenarios & teams means its not always that clean cut to say *never* bet a team in the 2nd game. On this basis, I've broken down each set of stats into the deeper scenarios, for 2 groupings: Teams coming off 4 game road trips, and teams coming off 5+ game road trips...
Please note:
(1) Where the All-Star break broke up a team's road trip, or broke up a team's return game/games, they have been excluded.
(2) When a team off such a road trip played both 1st & 2nd games back at home against the same opponent, that team's results are excluded.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Teams off 4 game road trips
1st Game Back - Eastern teams
Overall ...................................... 164-170-10
As the Fav ..................................... 106-111-5
As the Dog ..................................... 58-59-5
vs. Conference teams ............. 105-103-9
vs. non-Conference teams ...... 59-67-1
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ......................... 76-69-5
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ....................... 29-34-4
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ............... 30-42
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............. 29-25-1
1st Game Back - Western teams
Overall ...................................... 190-192-10
As the Fav ..................................... 142-131-8
As the Dog ..................................... 48-61-2
vs. Conference teams ................. 115-113-7
vs. non-Conference teams ....... 75-79-3
vs. Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 78-76-6
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........................ 37-37-1
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ................ 64-55-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .............. 11-24-1
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2nd game Back - Eastern teams
Home game ...................................... 84-118-4
Road game ........................................ 58-71-3
@Home as a Fav ................................... 52-70-2
@Home as a Dog ................................. 32-48-2
on the Road as a Fav ........................... 16-16-2
on the Road as a Dog ......................... 42-55-1
@Home vs. Conf teams ...................... 60-71-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............ 24-47-3
on the Road vs. Conf teams .............. 50-64-3
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ....... 8-7
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 35-45-1
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 25-26
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 17-25-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............ 7-22-2
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 15-15-2
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 35-49-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 1-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 7-6
2nd game Back - Western teams
Home game ..................................... 126-147-4
Road game ......................................... 53-53-1
@Home as a Fav .................................... 91-108-3
@Home as a Dog .................................. 35-39-1
on the Road as a Fav ............................ 13-9
on the Road as a Dog .......................... 40-44-1
@Home vs. Conf teams ....................... 78-100-4
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............. 48-47
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............... 34-45-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ..... 19-8
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 57-74-3
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 21-26-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 34-34
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ........ 14-13
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............... 9-8
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 25-37-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 4-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .. 15-7
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Teams off 5+ game road trips
1st Game Back - Eastern teams
Overall ...................................... 143-165-3
As the Fav ....................................... 88-113-3
As the Dog ..................................... 55-52
vs. Conference teams ................. 95-100-1
vs. non-Conference teams ....... 48-65-2
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ........................... 61-66-1
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ......................... 34-34
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ................. 27-47-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............... 21-18
1st Game Back - Western teams
Overall ...................................... 150-162-5
As the Fav ........................................ 100-118-3
As the Dog ...................................... 50-44-2
vs. Conference teams .................. 94-94-2
vs. non-Conference teams ........ 56-68-3
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............................ 59-61-1
vs. Conf teams as a Dog .......................... 35-33-1
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .................. 41-57-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ................ 15-11-1
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2nd game Back - Eastern teams
Home game ..................................... 100-93-5
Road game ....................................... 47-62-1
@Home as a Fav .................................. 65-67-3
@Home as a Dog ................................ 35-26-2
on the Road as a Fav .......................... 17-10-1
on the Road as a Dog ........................ 30-52
@Home vs. Conf teams ..................... 64-71-4
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ........... 36-22-1
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............. 41-56-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ...... 6-6
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav .................... 44-52-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog .................. 20-19-2
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 21-15-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 15-7
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 13-9-1
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 28-47
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 4-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 2-5
2nd game Back - Western teams
Home game ....................................... 85-119-2
Road game ......................................... 40-57-2
@Home as a Fav ..................................... 59-75-2
@Home as a Dog ................................... 26-44
on the Road as a Fav ............................. 14-14
on the Road as a Dog ........................... 26-43-2
@Home vs. Conf teams ....................... 57-79-2
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............. 28-40
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............... 33-51-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ........ 7-6-1
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 39-44-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 18-35
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 20-31
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............ 8-9
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 12-12
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 21-39-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 2-2
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 5-4-1
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The majority of teams do not win or lose both games ATS, rather they have a general tendency
to split results over the 2 games (splits incl. a push married w/either a win or loss)...
Off 4 game road trips (last 18 seasons, not incl. venue-affected '20-21)
Win both ......... 22.63%
Lose both ........ 29.49%
Split results ..... 47.88%
Off 5+ game road trips (last 18 seasons, not incl. venue-affected '20-21)
Win both ......... 22.71%
Lose both ........ 30.56%
Split results ..... 46.73%
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