NBA 2018-19 Post-Road Trip ATS Results

[BetCrimes1984]

I initially gathered these figures (based on opening lines) together midway through the 06-07 season, to test the veracity of the belief that said the time to fade teams off longish road trips (longish = 4 or more games in length, since that usually translates to at least a week's absence from ones own home court) was in their first game back home.

The clear message from these (fully updated) figures is - it isn't the 1st game back @home where you find a real advantage in fading a team, it's in their 2nd game back.

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The overall ATS figures for the last 15 seasons are as follows -

For the 1st game off a 4+ game road trip -- 536-563-25 ....... -27

For the 2nd game off a 4+ game road trip - 480-601-22 ....... -121


The ATS win rate for the 1st game is 48.77% vs. 44.40% for the 2nd game.


Of course the above figures are a lot more involved than what the surface facts provide. Different scenarios & teams means its not always that clean cut to say *never* bet a team in the 2nd game. On this basis, I've broken down each set of stats into the deeper scenarios, for 2 groupings: Teams coming off 4 game road trips, and teams coming off 5+ game road trips...

Note: where the All-Star break broke up a teams road trip, or broke up a team's return game/games, they have been excluded.

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Teams off 4 game road trips


1st Game Back - Eastern teams

Overall ............................................ 136-141-8


As the Fav .............................................. 86-95-5
As the Dog ............................................ 50-46-3

vs. Conference teams ........................ 86-87-8
vs. non-Conference teams .............. 50-54


vs. Conf teams as a Fav .................................. 62-59-5
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................................ 24-28-3

vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........................ 24-36
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ...................... 26-18


1st Game Back - Western teams

Overall ............................................ 148-153-10


As the Fav ..................................... 109-103-8
As the Dog ..................................... 39-50-2

vs. Conference teams ................. 91-94-7
vs. non-Conference teams ....... 57-59-3


vs. Conf teams as a Fav ................................ 60-63-6
vs. Conf teams as a Dog .............................. 31-31-1

vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...................... 49-40-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ...................... 8-19-1

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2nd game Back - Eastern teams

Home game ................................... 64-95-4
Road game ..................................... 52-63-3


@Home as a Fav .......................... 40-55-2
@Home as a Dog ........................ 24-40-2

on the Road as a Fav .................. 15-14-2
on the Road as a Dog ................ 37-49-1


@Home vs. Conf teams ............................... 47-54-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ..................... 17-41-3

on the Road vs. Conf teams ...................... 45-58-3
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ............... 7-5


@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 28-33-1
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 19-21

@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 12-22-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ........... 5-19-2

on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............ 14-14-2
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog .......... 31-44-1

on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ..... 1-0
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Do ...... 6-5


2nd game Back - Western teams

Home game .................................. 91-118-4
Road game .................................... 49-41-1


@Home as a Fav ......................... 66-88-3
@Home as a Dog ....................... 25-30-1

on the Road as a Fav ................. 12-6
on the Road as a Dog ............... 37-35-1


@Home vs. Conf teams .............................. 57-85-4
@Home vs. non-Conf teams .................... 34-33

on the Road vs. Conf teams ...................... 33-35-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ............ 16-6


@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ...................... 40-63-3
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog .................... 17-22-1

@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ............ 26-25
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............ 8-8

on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ................ 9-6
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ............ 24-29-1

on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 3-0
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .. 13-6

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Teams off 5+ game road trips


1st Game Back - Eastern teams

Overall .......................................... 118-140-2


As the Fav ...................................... 70-100-2
As the Dog .................................... 48-40

vs. Conference teams ................ 79-86-1
vs. non-Conference teams ...... 39-54-1


vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............................... 50-61-1
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ............................. 29-25

vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 20-39-1
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ................... 19-15


1st Game Back - Western teams

Overall .......................................... 134-129-5


As the Fav ...................................... 88-96-3
As the Dog .................................... 46-33-2

vs. Conference teams ................ 83-72-2
vs. non-Conference teams ...... 51-57-3


vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............................... 51-47-1
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ............................. 32-25-1

vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 37-49-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ................... 14-8-1

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2nd game Back - Eastern teams

Home game .................................. 82-72-5
Road game .................................... 39-58-1


@Home as a Fav ......................... 52-53-3
@Home as a Dog ....................... 30-19-2

on the Road as a Fav ................. 14-9-1
on the Road as a Dog ............... 25-49


@Home vs. Conf teams .............................. 50-53-4
@Home vs. non-Conf teams .................... 32-19-1

on the Road vs. Conf teams ..................... 35-52-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams .............. 4-6


@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 33-41-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 17-12-2

@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 19-12-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 13-7

on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 12-8-1
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 23-44

on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 2-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 2-5


2nd game Back - Western teams

Home game .................................. 68-98-2
Road game .................................... 35-56-2


@Home as a Fav ......................... 50-65-2
@Home as a Dog ....................... 18-33

on the Road as a Fav ................. 12-14
on the Road as a Dog ............... 23-42-2


@Home vs. Conf teams .............................. 43-68-2
@Home vs. non-Conf teams .................... 25-30

on the Road vs. Conf teams ...................... 29-50-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ............... 6-6-1


@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ...................... 32-40-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog .................... 11-28

@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ............ 18-25
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............ 7-5

on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav .............. 11-12
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ............ 18-38-1

on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 1-2
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 5-4-1

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Looking at the combined numbers in these categories that stay true in nature, no matter coming off a 4 or 5+ game road trip...

West - 2nd game as a Dog vs. Conf. teams ................ 41-81-14
4-11 in '13-14
3-9-1 in '14-15
6-10 in '15-16
5-8 in '16-17
8-6 in '17-18

West - 2nd game @Home vs. Conf. teams ................. 99-150-6
7-12 in '13-14
6-8 in '14-15
8-7 in '15-16
10-6 in '16-17
7-10 in '17-18

East - 2nd game Away as a Dog vs. Conf. teams ....... 54-88-1
3-3 in '13-14
7-2 in '14-15
4-9 in '15-16
3-5-1 in '16-17
1-7 in '17-18

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[BetCrimes1984]

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The majority of teams do not win or lose both games ATS, rather they have a general tendency to split results over the 2 games (splits incl. a push result married w/either a win or loss)...

Off 4 game road trips (last 15 seasons)
Win both ......... 22.30%
Lose both ........ 30.40%
Split results ..... 47.30%

Off 5+ game road trips (last 15 seasons)
Win both ......... 22.24%
Lose both ........ 30.37%
Split results ..... 47.39%

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Naturally there are some teams that seem to be either especially true to such trends, or defy them in an outstanding manner (the figures below are the 4 & 5+ game trip stats combined)...


Teams recently in keeping with the trends

Teams with the best 1st game records over the last 7 seasons -

Oklahoma ............... 7-3
Milwaukee ............ 10-5
Brooklyn ................ 10-6

Notable mention: San Antonio has gone 4-2 ATS in this spot over the last 4 seasons.


Teams with the worst 2nd game records over the last 7 seasons -

Oklahoma ............... 2-7
Sacramento ........... 6-18
Phoenix ................... 6-16
LA Lakers ................ 7-12-1
Milwaukee ............. 5-10

Notable mention: Philadelphia has gone 5-8 ATS in this spot over the last 5 seasons.


Teams recently bucking the trends

Teams with the worst 1st game records over the last 7 seasons -

Miami ....................... 7-17
Charlotte ................. 7-15

Notable mention: Utah has gone 7-10 ATS in this spot over the last 5 seasons.


Teams with the best 2nd game records over the last 7 seasons -

Boston ..................... 9-2-2
Chicago ................... 9-4-1
Portland ................ 18-9
LA Clippers .......... 12-6-1

Notable mention: Golden State has gone 9-3 ATS in this spot over the last 4 seasons.

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These results will only be added collectively to the stats in the initial post at season's end.

Results based on opening lines (when thats a pick'em, the home team is made a -0.5 Fav).


October

CHA off a 5 game trip
26th - Home Fave vs. CHC - Won
27th - Road Dog vs. PHI - Won


November

POR off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fave vs. NOR - Won
3rd - Home Fave vs. LAL - Lost

UTH off a 4 game trip
2nd - Home Fave vs. MEM - Lost
3rd - Road Dog vs. DEN - Lost

WAS off a 5 game trip
2nd - Home Fave vs. OKC - Lost
4th - Home Fave vs. NYK - Won

SAC off a 4 game trip
7th - Home Dog vs. TOR - Lost
9th - Home Dog vs. MIN - Won

NOR off a 5 game trip
7th - Home Fave vs. CHC - Lost
10th - Home Fave vs. PHX - Won

TOR off a 4 game trip
10th - Home Fave vs. NYK - Won
12th - Home Fave vs. NOR - Lost

HOU off a 5 game trip
11th - Home Fave vs. IND - Won
13th - Road Dog vs. DEN - Won

MIN off a 6 game trip
12th - Home Fave vs. BRK - Won
14th - Home Fave vs. NOR - Won

BOS off a 5 game trip
14th - Home Fave vs. CHC - Won
16th - Home Fave vs. TOR - Won

BRK off a 4 game trip
14th - Home Dog vs. MIA - Lost
16th - Road Dog vs. WAS - Won

MIL off a 4 game trip
14th - Home Fave vs. MEM - Lost
16th - Home Fave vs. CHC - Won

ATL off a 4 game trip
19th - Home Dog vs. LAC - Lost
21st - Home Dog vs. TOR - Lost

UTH off a 5 game trip
21st - Home Fave vs. SAC - Lost
23rd - Road Dog vs. LAL - Lost

TOR off a 4 game trip
23rd - Home Fave vs. WAS - Won
25th - Home Fave vs. MIA - Lost

POR off a 6 game trip
25th - Home Fave vs. LAC - Lost
28th - Home Fave vs. ORL - Lost

PHX off a 4 game trip
27th - Home Dog vs. IND - Lost
28th - Road Dog vs. LAC - Lost

SAS off a 4 game trip
30th - Home Fave vs. HOU - Lost
2nd - Home Fave vs. POR - Won

 

[BetCrimes1984]

December

IND off a 4 game trip
4th - Home Fave vs. CHC - Lost
7th - Road Dog vs. ORL - Won

ORL off a 6 game trip
5th - Home Dog vs. DEN - Lost
7th - Home Fave vs. IND - Lost

CHC off a 4 game trip
7th - Home Dog vs. OKC - Lost
8th - Home Dog vs. BOS - Lost

LAC off a 4 game trip
8th - Home Fave vs. MIA - Lost
10th - Road Fave vs. PHX - Lost

GSW off a 5 game trip
10th - Home Fave vs. MIN - Lost
12th - Home Fave vs. TOR - Lost

DEN off a 5 game trip
10th - Home Fave vs. MEM - Won
14th - Home Dog vs. OKC - Won

WAS off a 4 game trip
12th - Home Dog vs. BOS - Lost
14th - Road Dog vs. BRK - Lost

SAC off a 4 game trip
12th - Home Dog vs. MIN - Won
14th - Home Dog vs. GSW - Won

MIN off a 4 game trip
17th - Home Fave vs. SAC - Won
19th - Home Fave vs. DET - Lost

TOR off a 4 game trip
19th - Home Fave vs. IND - Lost
21st - Home Fave vs. CLE - Won

MIA off a 6 game trip
20th - Home Dog vs. HOU - Won
22nd - Home Dog vs. MIL - Won

LAL off a 4 game trip
21st - Home Fave vs. NOR - Won
23rd - Home Fave vs. MEM - Lost

DAL off a 4 game trip
26th - Home Fave vs. NOR - Won
28th - Road Dog vs. NOR - Won

MEM off a 4 game trip
26th - Home Fave vs. CLE - Lost
29th - Home Dog vs. BOS - Lost

NOR off a 4 game trip
28th - Home Fave vs. DAL - Lost
29th - Home Dog vs. HOU - Lost

PHX off a 5 game trip
28th - Home Dog vs. OKC - Lost
29th - Home Dog vs. DEN - Won


January

DET off a 4 game trip
5th - Home Dog vs. UTH - Lost
7th - Home Dog vs. SA - Lost

PHI off a 5 game trip
5th - Home Fave vs. DAL - Push
8th - Home Fave vs. WAS - Won

DAL off a 4 game trip
7th - Home Fave vs. LAL - Lost
9th - Home Fave vs. PHX - Won

UTH off a 4 game trip
9th - Home Fave vs. ORL - Won
11th - Home Fave vs. LAL - Won

NYK off a 6 game trip
11th - Home Dog vs. IND - Lost
13th - Home Dog vs. PHI - Won

ORL off a 6 game trip
12th - Home Dog vs. BOS - Won
13th - Home Dog vs. HOU - Won

IND off a 5 game trip
15th - Home Fave vs. PHX - Won
17th - Home Fave vs. PHI - Lost

DET off a 4 game trip
16th - Home Fave vs. ORL - Won
18th - Home Fave vs. MIA - Won

CHA off a 6 game trip
17th - Home Fave vs. SAC - Won
19th - Home Fave vs. PHX - Won

CHC off a 5 game trip
19th - Home Dog vs. MIA - Lost
21st - Road Fave vs. CLE - Won

CLE off a 6 game trip
21st - Home Dog vs. CHC - Lost
23rd - Road Dog vs. BOS - Lost

PHX off a 4 game trip
22nd - Home Dog vs. MIN - Lost
24th - Home Dog vs. POR - Lost

NOR off a 5 game trip
23rd - Home Fave vs. DET - Lost
24th - Road Dog vs. OKC - Won

MIA off a 4 game trip
23rd - Home Fave vs. LAC - Lost
25th - Road Fave vs. CLE - Lost

LAC off a 4 game trip
27th - Home Fave vs. SAC - Won
28th - Home Fave vs. ATL - Lost

SAC off a 6 game trip
30th - Home Fave vs. ATL - Won
2nd - Home Dog vs. PHI - Won

GSW off a 5 game trip
31st - Home Fave vs. PHI - Lost
2nd - Home Fave vs. LAL - Won


February

IND off a 4 game trip
5th - Home Dog vs. LAL - Won
7th - Home Fave vs. LAC - Won

PHI off a 4 game trip
5th - Home Fave vs. TOR - Lost
8th - Home Fave vs. DEN - Won

MIL off a 5 game trip
6th - Home Fave vs. WAS - Won
8th - Road Fave vs. DAL - Won

ATL off a 5 game trip
7th - Home Dog vs. TOR - Lost
9th - Home Dog vs. CHA - Lost

HOU off a 4 game trip
9th - Home Fave vs. OKC - Lost
11th - Home Fave vs. DAL - Won

DEN off a 4 game trip
11th - Home Fave vs. MIA - Won
13th - Home Fave vs. SAC - Lost

LAC off a 5 game trip
13th - Home Fave vs. PHX - Won
No 2nd game.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

March

GSW off a 4 game trip
5th - Home Fave vs. BOS - Lost
8th - Home Fave vs. DEN - Won

NOR off a 4 game trip
6th - Home Dog vs. UTH - Lost
8th - Home Dog vs. TOR - Lost

POR off a 7 game trip
7th - Home Fave vs. OKC - Lost
9th - Home Fave vs. PHX - Lost

MIL off a 5 game trip
7th - Home Fave vs. IND - Won
9th - Home Fave vs. CHA - Won

OKC off a 4 game trip
13th - Home Fave vs. BRK - Won
14th - Road Dog vs. IND - Lost

BOS off a 4 game trip
14th - Home Fave vs. SAC - Lost
16th - Home Fave vs. ATL - Lost

SAC off a 4 game trip
17th - Home Fave vs. CHC - Won
19th - Home Fave vs. BRK - Lost

CHA off a 4 game trip
19th - Home Fave vs. PHI - Lost
21st - Home Fave vs. MIN - Won

GSW off a 4 game trip
21st - Home Fave vs. IND - Won
23rd - Home Fave vs. DAL - Lost

LAL off a 5 game trip
22nd - Home Dog vs. BRK - Lost
24th - Home Dog vs. SAC - Won

IND off a 4 game trip
24th - Home Dog vs. DEN - Won
27th - Road Dog vs. OKC - Lost

UTH off a 4 game trip
25th - Home Fave vs. PHX - Won
27th - Home Fave vs. LAL - Won

DEN off a 4 game trip
26th - Home Fave vs. DET - Lost
28th - Road Dog vs. HOU - Lost

MIA off a 4 game trip
26th - Home Fave vs. ORL - Lost
28th - Home Fave vs. DAL - Lost

DET off a 6 game trip
28th - Home Fave vs. ORL - Won
30th - Home Fave vs. POR - Won

LAC off a 4 game trip
30th - Home Fave vs. CLE - Won
31st - Home Fave vs. MEM - Won

BRK off a 7 game trip
30th - Home Fave vs. BOS - Won
1st - Home Dog vs. MIL - Lost


April

SAC off a 5 game trip
2nd - Home Dog vs. HOU - Lost
4th - Home Fave vs. CLE - Won

WAS off a 4 game trip
3rd - Home Fave vs. CHC - Lost
5th - Home Dog vs. SAS - Lost

POR off a 4 game trip
3rd - Home Fave vs. MEM - Won
5th - Road Dog vs. DEN - Lost

ORL off a 4 game trip
3rd - Home Fave vs. NYK - Won
5th - Home Fave vs. ATL - Won

CHA off a 4 game trip
5th - Home Dog vs. TOR - Won
7th - Road Dog vs. DET - Won

MEM off a 4 game trip
7th - Home Fave vs. DAL - Lost
9th - Road Dog vs. DET - Won

CLE off a 5 game trip
7th - Home Dog vs. SAS - Lost
9th - Home Dog vs. CHA - Lost

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Overall results for the 2018-19 season -

Teams playing 1st off 4 game trips ...... 21-28
Teams playing 2nd off 4 game trips .... 21-28

Teams playing 1st off 5+ game trips .... 15-17-1
Teams playing 2nd off 5+ game trips ... 22-10 (17-5 @home / 5-5 away)

Combined Results

Teams playing 1st off 4+ game trips .... 36-45-1
Teams playing 2nd off 4+ game trips ... 43-38
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[BetCrimes1984]

As usual, the schedule makers have seen fit to be cruel to a number of teams (bolded blue opponents also playing b2b)...


Playing their 1st & 2nd games back B2B off 1 day's rest since their trip's end

CHA off a 4 game trip
26th Oct. - Home vs. CHC - Won
27th Oct. - Away vs. PHI - Won

UTH off a 4 game trip
2nd Nov. - Home vs. MEM - Lost
3rd Nov. - Away vs. DEN - Lost

PHX off a 4 game trip
27th Nov. - Home vs. IND - Lost
28th Nov. - Away vs. LAC - Lost

NOR off a 4 game trip
28th Dec. - Home vs. DAL - Lost
29th Dec. - Home vs. HOU - Lost

PHX off a 5 game trip
28th Dec. - Home vs. OKC - Lost
29th Dec. - Home vs. DEN - Won

NOR off a 5 game trip
23rd Jan. - Home vs. DET - Lost
24th Jan. - Away vs. OKC - Won

LAC off a 4 game trip
27th Jan. - Home vs. SAC - Won
28th Jan. - Home vs. ATL - Lost

OKC off a 4 game trip
13th Mar. - Home vs. BRK - Won
14th Mar. - Away vs. IND - Lost

LAC off a 4 game trip
30th Mar. - Home vs. CLE - Won
31st Mar. - Home vs. MEM - Won


Playing their 1st & 2nd games back B2B off 2 days rest since their trip's end

CHC off a 4 game trip
7th Dec. - Home vs. OKC - Lost
8th Dec. - Home vs. BOS - Lost

ORL off a 6 game trip
12th Jan. - Home vs. BOS - Won
13th Jan. - Home vs. HOU - Won

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Overall results (last 22 seasons)

1st game in b2b off a 4+ game road trip..: 97-118-5 .... 44.09% win rate
2nd game in b2b off a 4+ game road trip: 91-124-5 .... 41.36% win rate

Either game off any rest vs. opponent NOT playing b2b: 128-176-7 ... 41.16% win rate
Either game off any rest vs. an opponent playing b2b:....... 60-66-3 ..... 46.51% win rate


1st Game Back

1 day of rest off road trip + opponent NOT playing b2b: 34-45-3
2+ days rest off road trip + opponent NOT playing b2b: 33-37-1
Overall: 67-82-4

1 day of rest off road trip + opponent playing b2b: _9-22-1
2+ days rest off road trip + opponent playing b2b: 21-14
Overall: 30-36-1


2nd Game Back

1 day of rest off road trip + opponent NOT playing b2b: 31-42-1
2+ days rest off road trip + opponent NOT playing b2b: 30-52-2
Overall: 61-94-3

1 day of rest off road trip + opponent playing b2b: 17-15-1
2+ days rest off road trip + opponent playing b2b: 13-15-1
Overall: 30-30-2


Result Sequences (do not include those involving Pushes)

Sequence ......... W-W ... W-L ... L-W ... L-L
1 day of rest ....... 22 ...... 20 ....... 25 ..... 36
2+ days rest ....... 27 ...... 25 ....... 12 ..... 43

Looking at these results within each rest grouping -

- Teams who have won their 1st game have pretty much been a 51-53% shot to win their 2nd game, no matter what the nature of their rest off their recent road trip.

- Teams who have lost their 1st game off short rest have lost their 2nd game at a 59.0% rate, but off longer rest have lost their subsequent 2nd game at a much more significant 78.2% rate.

It's definitely worth paying some attention to the result of the 1st game, when it comes to ascertaining what's worth betting for the 2nd game.

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