BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
I initially gathered these figures (based on opening lines) together midway through the 06-07 season, to test the veracity of the belief that said the time to fade teams off longish road trips (longish = 4 or more games in length, since that usually translates to at least a week's absence from ones own homecourt) was in their first game back home.
The clear message from these (fully updated) figures is - it isn't the 1st game back @home where you find a real advantage in fading a team, it's in their 2nd game back.
------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------
The overall ATS figures for the last 13 seasons are as follows -
For the 1st game off a 4+ game road trip - 446-486-24 .......... -40
For the 2nd game off a 4+ game road trip - 408-514-17 ........ -106
The ATS win rate for the 1st game is 47.85% vs. 44.25% for the 2nd game.
Of course the above figures are a lot more involved than what the surface facts provide. Different scenarios & teams means its not always that clean cut to say *never* bet a team in the 2nd game. On this basis, I've broken down each set of stats into the deeper scenarios, for 2 groupings: Teams coming off 4 game road trips, and teams coming off 5+ game road trips...
Note: where the All-Star break broke up a teams road trip, or broke up a team's return game/games, they have been excluded.
------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>-----------------
Teams off 4 game road trips
1st Game Back - Eastern teams
Overall ......................<wbr>.................. 115-123-7
As the Fav ..............................<wbr>...... 74-79-5
As the Dog ..............................<wbr>..... 41-44-2
vs. Conference teams .................... 74-76-7
vs. non-Conference teams .............. 41-47
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..............................<wbr>... 54-50-5
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ..............................<wbr>.. 20-26-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 20-<wbr>29
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .......................... 21-<wbr>18
1st Game Back - Western teams
Overall ......................<wbr>.................. 123-134-10
As the Fav ..............................<wbr>...... 90-96-8
As the Dog ..............................<wbr>..... 33-38-2
vs. Conference teams .................... 73-82-7
vs. non-Conference teams ............. 50-52-3
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..............................<wbr>... 48-58-6
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ..............................<wbr>.. 25-24-1
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 42-<wbr>38-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ........................... 8-<wbr>14-1
------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------
2nd game Back - Eastern teams
Home game ..............................<wbr>.... 54-81-4
Road game ..............................<wbr>..... 47-54-1
@Home as a Fav ........................... 32<wbr>-48-2
@Home as a Dog .......................... 22-33-2
on the Road as a Fav ..................... 13-11-1
on the Road as a Dog .................... 34-43
@Home vs. Conf teams .................. 40-46-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ........... 14-35-3
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............ 42-50-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ....... 5-4
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ...................... 23-28-1
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ..................... 17-18
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ................ 9-20-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............... 5-15-2
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............... 13-11-1
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog .............. 29-39
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ......... -----
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 5-4
2nd game Back - Western teams
Home game ..........................<wbr>........ 79-108-4
Road game ...............................<wbr>.... 38-33-1
@Home as a Fav ........................... 57-80-3
@Home as a Dog .......................... 22-<wbr>28-1
on the Road as a Fav ....................... 9-5
on the Road as a Dog .................... 29-28-1
@Home vs. Conf teams .................. 49-80-4
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ........... 30-28
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............ 23-28-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ...... 15-5
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 34-59-3
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog .................... 15-21-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ............... 23-21
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ................ 7-7
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ................. 6-5
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog .............. 17-23-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ......... 3-0
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ....... 12-5
------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------
Teams off 5+ game road trips
1st Game Back - Eastern teams
Overall ..............................<wbr>........... 91-123-2
As the Fav ..............................<wbr>...... 54-89-2
As the Dog ..............................<wbr>..... 37-34
vs. Conference teams .................... 65-76-1
vs. non-Conference teams ............. 26-47-1
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..............................<wbr>... 42-55-1
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ..............................<wbr>.. 23-21
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 12-<wbr>34-1
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......................... 14-13
1st Game Back - Western teams
Overall ......................<wbr>.................. 117-106-5
As the Fav ..............................<wbr>...... 77-81-3
As the Dog ..............................<wbr>..... 40-25-2
vs. Conference teams .................... 70-61-2
vs. non-Conference teams ............. 47-45-3
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..............................<wbr>... 42-43-1
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ..............................<wbr>.. 28-18-1
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 35-<wbr>38-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......................... 12-7-1
------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>-----------------
2nd game Back - Eastern teams
Home game ..............................<wbr>.... 66-58-3
Road game ..............................<wbr>..... 36-49-1
@Home as a Fav ........................... 40-44-2
@Home as a Dog .......................... 26-<wbr>14-1
on the Road as a Fav ..................... 13-7-1
on the Road as a Dog .................... 23-42
@Home vs. Conf teams .................. 41-44-3
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ........... 25-14
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............ 33-43-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ....... 3-6
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 26-35-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog .................... 15-9-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ............... 14-9
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .............. 11-5
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............... 12-6-1
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog .............. 21-37
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .......... 1-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 2-5
2nd game Back - Western teams
Home game .........................<wbr>........ 54-82-2
Road game ..............................<wbr>.... 34-49-1
@Home as a Fav .......................... 40-53-2
@Home as a Dog ......................... 14-<wbr>29
on the Road as a Fav .................... 12-12
on the Road as a Dog ................... 22-37-1
@Home vs. Conf teams ................. 33-58-2
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ........... 21-24
on the Road vs. Conf teams ........... 28-44-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ....... 6-5
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ...................... 26-34-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ....................... 7-24
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ............... 14-19
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ................ 7-5
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ................ 11-10
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ............... 17-34-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 1-2
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .......... 5-3
------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------
Looking at the combined numbers in these categories that stay consistent in nature,
no matter whether coming off a 4 or 5+ game road trip...
West - 2nd game as a Dog vs. Conf. teams ................ 28-67-1
4-11 in '13-14
3-9-1 <wbr>in '14-15
6-10 in '15-16
West - 2nd game @Home vs. Conf. teams ................. 82-134-6
7-12 in '13-14
6-8 <wbr>in '14-15
8-7 in '15-16
East - 2nd game @Home as a Fave vs. Conf. teams ... 49-63-3
2-4 in '13-14
4-5 in '14-15
8-0 in '15-16
East - 2nd game Away as a Dog vs. Conf. teams ........ 50-76
3-3 in '13-14
7-2 in '14-15
4-9 in '15-16
------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------
The clear message from these (fully updated) figures is - it isn't the 1st game back @home where you find a real advantage in fading a team, it's in their 2nd game back.
------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------
The overall ATS figures for the last 13 seasons are as follows -
For the 1st game off a 4+ game road trip - 446-486-24 .......... -40
For the 2nd game off a 4+ game road trip - 408-514-17 ........ -106
The ATS win rate for the 1st game is 47.85% vs. 44.25% for the 2nd game.
Of course the above figures are a lot more involved than what the surface facts provide. Different scenarios & teams means its not always that clean cut to say *never* bet a team in the 2nd game. On this basis, I've broken down each set of stats into the deeper scenarios, for 2 groupings: Teams coming off 4 game road trips, and teams coming off 5+ game road trips...
Note: where the All-Star break broke up a teams road trip, or broke up a team's return game/games, they have been excluded.
------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>-----------------
Teams off 4 game road trips
1st Game Back - Eastern teams
Overall ......................<wbr>.................. 115-123-7
As the Fav ..............................<wbr>...... 74-79-5
As the Dog ..............................<wbr>..... 41-44-2
vs. Conference teams .................... 74-76-7
vs. non-Conference teams .............. 41-47
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..............................<wbr>... 54-50-5
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ..............................<wbr>.. 20-26-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 20-<wbr>29
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .......................... 21-<wbr>18
1st Game Back - Western teams
Overall ......................<wbr>.................. 123-134-10
As the Fav ..............................<wbr>...... 90-96-8
As the Dog ..............................<wbr>..... 33-38-2
vs. Conference teams .................... 73-82-7
vs. non-Conference teams ............. 50-52-3
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..............................<wbr>... 48-58-6
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ..............................<wbr>.. 25-24-1
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 42-<wbr>38-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ........................... 8-<wbr>14-1
------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------
2nd game Back - Eastern teams
Home game ..............................<wbr>.... 54-81-4
Road game ..............................<wbr>..... 47-54-1
@Home as a Fav ........................... 32<wbr>-48-2
@Home as a Dog .......................... 22-33-2
on the Road as a Fav ..................... 13-11-1
on the Road as a Dog .................... 34-43
@Home vs. Conf teams .................. 40-46-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ........... 14-35-3
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............ 42-50-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ....... 5-4
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ...................... 23-28-1
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ..................... 17-18
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ................ 9-20-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............... 5-15-2
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............... 13-11-1
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog .............. 29-39
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ......... -----
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 5-4
2nd game Back - Western teams
Home game ..........................<wbr>........ 79-108-4
Road game ...............................<wbr>.... 38-33-1
@Home as a Fav ........................... 57-80-3
@Home as a Dog .......................... 22-<wbr>28-1
on the Road as a Fav ....................... 9-5
on the Road as a Dog .................... 29-28-1
@Home vs. Conf teams .................. 49-80-4
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ........... 30-28
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............ 23-28-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ...... 15-5
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 34-59-3
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog .................... 15-21-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ............... 23-21
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ................ 7-7
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ................. 6-5
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog .............. 17-23-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ......... 3-0
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ....... 12-5
------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------
Teams off 5+ game road trips
1st Game Back - Eastern teams
Overall ..............................<wbr>........... 91-123-2
As the Fav ..............................<wbr>...... 54-89-2
As the Dog ..............................<wbr>..... 37-34
vs. Conference teams .................... 65-76-1
vs. non-Conference teams ............. 26-47-1
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..............................<wbr>... 42-55-1
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ..............................<wbr>.. 23-21
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 12-<wbr>34-1
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......................... 14-13
1st Game Back - Western teams
Overall ......................<wbr>.................. 117-106-5
As the Fav ..............................<wbr>...... 77-81-3
As the Dog ..............................<wbr>..... 40-25-2
vs. Conference teams .................... 70-61-2
vs. non-Conference teams ............. 47-45-3
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..............................<wbr>... 42-43-1
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ..............................<wbr>.. 28-18-1
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 35-<wbr>38-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......................... 12-7-1
------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>-----------------
2nd game Back - Eastern teams
Home game ..............................<wbr>.... 66-58-3
Road game ..............................<wbr>..... 36-49-1
@Home as a Fav ........................... 40-44-2
@Home as a Dog .......................... 26-<wbr>14-1
on the Road as a Fav ..................... 13-7-1
on the Road as a Dog .................... 23-42
@Home vs. Conf teams .................. 41-44-3
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ........... 25-14
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............ 33-43-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ....... 3-6
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 26-35-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog .................... 15-9-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ............... 14-9
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .............. 11-5
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............... 12-6-1
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog .............. 21-37
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .......... 1-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 2-5
2nd game Back - Western teams
Home game .........................<wbr>........ 54-82-2
Road game ..............................<wbr>.... 34-49-1
@Home as a Fav .......................... 40-53-2
@Home as a Dog ......................... 14-<wbr>29
on the Road as a Fav .................... 12-12
on the Road as a Dog ................... 22-37-1
@Home vs. Conf teams ................. 33-58-2
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ........... 21-24
on the Road vs. Conf teams ........... 28-44-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ....... 6-5
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ...................... 26-34-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ....................... 7-24
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ............... 14-19
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ................ 7-5
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ................ 11-10
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ............... 17-34-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 1-2
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .......... 5-3
------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------
Looking at the combined numbers in these categories that stay consistent in nature,
no matter whether coming off a 4 or 5+ game road trip...
West - 2nd game as a Dog vs. Conf. teams ................ 28-67-1
4-11 in '13-14
3-9-1 <wbr>in '14-15
6-10 in '15-16
West - 2nd game @Home vs. Conf. teams ................. 82-134-6
7-12 in '13-14
6-8 <wbr>in '14-15
8-7 in '15-16
East - 2nd game @Home as a Fave vs. Conf. teams ... 49-63-3
2-4 in '13-14
4-5 in '14-15
8-0 in '15-16
East - 2nd game Away as a Dog vs. Conf. teams ........ 50-76
3-3 in '13-14
7-2 in '14-15
4-9 in '15-16
------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------