NBA 2014-15 Season Post-Road Trip ATS Results

[BetCrimes1984]

I initially gathered these figures (based on opening lines) together midway through the 06-07 season, to test the veracity of the belief that said the time to fade teams off longish road trips (longish = 4 or more games in length, since that usually translates to at least a week's absence from ones own homecourt) was in their first game back home.

The clear message from these (fully updated) figures is - it isn't the 1st game back @home where you find a real advantage in fading a team, it's in their 2nd game back.

------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------

The overall ATS figures for the last 11 seasons are as follows -

For the 1st game off a 4+ game road trip - 374-408-20 .......... -34

For the 2nd game off a 4+ game road trip - 334-440-15 ........ -106


The ATS win rate for the 1st game is 46.63% vs. 42.33% for the 2nd game.


Of course the above figures are a lot more involved than what the surface facts provide. Different scenarios & teams means its not always that clean cut to say *never* bet a team in the 2nd game. On this basis, I've broken down each set of stats into the deeper scenarios, for 2 groupings: Teams coming off 4 game road trips, and teams coming off 5+ game road trips...

Note: where the All-Star break broke up a teams road trip, or broke up a team's return game/games, they have been excluded.

------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------

Teams off 4 game road trips


1st Game Back - Eastern teams

Overall ..............................<wbr>........... 95-102-6


As the Fav ..............................<wbr>...... 62-63-4
As the Dog ..............................<wbr>..... 33-39-2

vs. Conference teams ..................... 60-63-6
vs. non-Conference teams ............... 35-39


vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..............................<wbr>... 45-39-4
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ..............................<wbr>.. 15-24-2

vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 17-24
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .......................... 18-15


1st Game Back - Western teams

Overall ..............................<wbr>........... 105-110-8


As the Fav ..............................<wbr>...... 78-82-7
As the Dog ..............................<wbr>..... 27-28-1

vs. Conference teams ..................... 64-67-5
vs. non-Conference teams ............... 41-43-3


vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..............................<wbr>... 43-51-5
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ..............................<wbr>.. 21-16

vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 35-31-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ........................... 6-12-1

------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------

2nd game Back - Eastern teams

Home game ..............................<wbr>.... 47-69-3
Road game ..............................<wbr>..... 38-42-1


@Home as a Fav ........................... 25-43-2
@Home as a Dog .......................... 22-26-1

on the Road as a Fav ..................... 12-7-1
on the Road as a Dog .................... 26-35


@Home vs. Conf teams .................. 35-40-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ........... 12-29-2

on the Road vs. Conf teams ............ 35-39-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ....... 3-3


@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 18-25-1
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog .................... 17-15

@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ................ 7-18-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............... 5-11-1

on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............... 12-7-1
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog .............. 23-32

on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ......... ----
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 3-3


2nd game Back - Western teams

Home game ..............................<wbr>... 65-94-4
Road game ..............................<wbr>.... 30-26-1


@Home as a Fav .......................... 45-71-3
@Home as a Dog ......................... 20-23-1

on the Road as a Fav ...................... 7-4
on the Road as a Dog ................... 23-22-1


@Home vs. Conf teams .................. 42-69-4
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............ 23-25

on the Road vs. Conf teams ............ 18-22-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ...... 12-4


@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 28-52-3
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog .................... 14-17-1

@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ............... 17-19
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ................ 6-6

on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ................. 4-4
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog .............. 14-18-1

on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 3-0
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .......... 9-4

------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------

Teams off 5+ game road trips


1st Game Back - Eastern teams

Overall ..............................<wbr>........... 76-106-1


As the Fav ..............................<wbr>...... 48-79-1
As the Dog ..............................<wbr>..... 28-27

vs. Conference teams ..................... 57-67
vs. non-Conference teams .............. 19-39-1


vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..............................<wbr>... 38-51
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ..............................<wbr>.. 19-16

vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 10-28-1
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ........................... 9-11


1st Game Back - Western teams

Overall ..............................<wbr>........... 98-90-5


As the Fav ..............................<wbr>...... 60-71-3
As the Dog ..............................<wbr>..... 38-19-2

vs. Conference teams .................... 59-53-2
vs. non-Conference teams .............. 39-37-3


vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..............................<wbr>... 31-39-1
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ..............................<wbr>.. 28-14-1

vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 29-32-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......................... 10-5-1

------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------

2nd game Back - Eastern teams

Home game ..............................<wbr>.... 56-55-3
Road game ..............................<wbr>..... 25-42


@Home as a Fav ........................... 32-42-2
@Home as a Dog .......................... 24-13-1

on the Road as a Fav ....................... 7-6
on the Road as a Dog .................... 18-36


@Home vs. Conf teams .................. 33-41-3
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............ 23-14

on the Road vs. Conf teams ............ 23-38
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ....... 2-4


@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 19-33-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog .................... 14-8-1

@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ............... 13-9
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .............. 10-5

on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ................. 7-5
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog .............. 16-33

on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .......... 0-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 2-3


2nd game Back - Western teams

Home game ..............................<wbr>... 45-72-2
Road game ..............................<wbr>.... 28-40-1


@Home as a Fav .......................... 33-48-2
@Home as a Dog ......................... 12-24

on the Road as a Fav ...................... 9-10
on the Road as a Dog ................... 19-30-1


@Home vs. Conf teams ................. 26-50-2
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ........... 19-22

on the Road vs. Conf teams ........... 22-37-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ....... 6-3


@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ...................... 21-30-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ....................... 5-20

@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ............... 12-18
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ................ 7-4

on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ................. 8-9
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ............... 14-28-1

on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 1-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .......... 5-2

------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------

Looking at the combined numbers in these categories that stay true in nature, no matter coming off a 4 or 5+ game road trip...

West - 1st game as a Dog vs. Conf. teams ..................... 49-30-1

West - 2nd game as a Dog vs. Conf. teams .................... 19-48-1

West - 2nd game @Home vs. Conf. teams ..................... 68-119-6


East - 2nd game @Home as a Fav vs. Conf. teams ......... 37-58-3

East - 2nd game on the Road as a Dog vs. Conf. teams ... 39-65

------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------

 

[BetCrimes1984]

The majority of teams do not win or lose both games ATS, rather they have a general tendency to split results over the 2 games (splits incl. a push result married w/either a win or loss)...

Off 4 game road trips (last 11 seasons)
Win both ......... 21.90%
Lose both ........ 30.48%
Split results ..... 47.62%

Off 5+ game road trips (last 11 seasons)
Win both ......... 22.49%
Lose both ........ 33.61%
Split results ..... 43.90%


While the above figures betray the fact that split results are most prevalent result combination when considering all results as a whole, how teams perform in their 1st game back is important to note: For the 5 seasons results I still have immediately to hand (due to the site crash I lost the rest, but it's still a sizable enough stat pool to provide a significant indicator)...

...Teams who won their 1st game back, have lost their 2nd game at a 53.84% ATS rate

...Teams who lost their 1st game back, have lost their 2nd game at a 62.12% ATS rate

The above tendencies clearly betray the fact that teams who lose their 1st game back play even more heavily into the notion of being faded in their 2nd game off these 4+ game road trips.

------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Tracking 2014-15's results

Naturally there are some teams that seem to be either especially true to such trends, or defy them in an outstanding manner (the below figures are the 4 & 5+ game stats combined)...


Teams in keeping with the trends

Teams with the best 1st game records over the last 11 seasons -

Denver ............ 19-6
Golden State .... 28-12-3
New York ......... 18-7-1
Memphis .......... 15-9-1

Denver has only lost at a 24.0% rate over the last 11 seasons.


Teams with the worst 2nd game records over the last 11 seasons -

Oklahoma .......... 6-19
Toronto ............. 9-17-1
Miami .............. 12-19

These 4 teams are a combined 27-55-1 ATS in their 2nd games back off 4+ game road trips
the last 11 seasons, a win rate of just 32.5%.


Teams bucking the trends

Teams with the worst 1st game records over the last 11 seasons -

Washington ........ 9-14
Boston.............. 10-17-2
Portland ........... 13-23-1

Portland went 2-4 ATS in this spot last season.


Team with the most noteworthy 2nd game record over the last 11 seasons -

Memphis .......... 14-11

Memphis did go 0-2 ATS in this spot in 2013-14.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
These results will only be added collectively to the stats in the initial post at season's end.

Results based on opening lines (when thats a pick'em, the home team is made a -0.5 Fav).

November

CLE off a 4 game trip
10th - Home Fav vs. NOR - Won
14th - Road Fav vs. BOS - Lost

SAC off a 4 game trip
15th - Home Dog vs. SAS - Won
18th - Home Fav vs. NOR - Lost

DET off a 4 game trip
17th - Home Fav vs. ORL - Lost
19th - Home Dog vs. PHX - Push

SAS off a 4 game trip
17th - Home Fav vs. PHI - Won
19th - Road Dog vs. CLE - Won

CHA off a 4 game trip
17th - Home Dog vs. DAL - Lost
19th - Road Dog vs. IND - Lost

UTH off a 5 game trip
18th - Home Fav vs. OKC - Won
21st - Road Dog vs. GS - Lost

PHI off a 4 game trip
19th - Home Fav vs. BOS - Lost
21st - Home Dog vs. PHX - Lost

NOR off a 4 game trip
25th - Home Fav vs. SAC - Lost
28th - Road Dog vs. ATL - Lost

PHX off a 6 game trip
26th - Home Fav vs. DEN - Won
28th - Road Dog vs. DEN - Lost

SAC off a 4 game trip
30th - Home Dog vs. MEM - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs. TOR - Lost

December

LAC off a 7 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs. MIN - Won
3rd - Home Fav vs. ORL - Won

CHC off a 7 game trip
2nd - Home Fav vs. DAL - Lost
3rd - Road Fav vs. CHA - Won

GS off a 5 game trip
2nd - Home Fav vs. ORL - Lost
4th - Home Fav vs. NOR - Won

DAL off a 4 game trip
5th - Home Fav vs. PHX - Lost
7th - Home Fav vs. MIL - Won

MEM off a 4 game trip
5th - Home Fav vs. SAS - Lost
7th - Home Fav vs. MIA - Won

SAS off a 4 game trip
6th - Home Fav vs. MIN - Won
9th - Road Fav vs. UTH - Lost

IND off a 4 game trip
8th - Home Fav vs. ATL - Lost
10th - Home Dog vs. LAC - Lost

ORL off a 6 game trip
10th - Home Dog vs. WAS - Won
12th - Road Dog vs. ATL - Won

MIA off a 5 game trip
14th - Home Dog vs. CHC - Lost
16th - Road Dog vs. BRK - Won

POR off a 5 game trip
15th - Home Fav vs. SAS - Won
17th - Home Fav vs. MIL - Lost

MIL off a 4 game trip
23rd - Home Fav vs. CHA - Lost
26th - Road Dog vs. ATL - Won

POR off a 4 game trip
26th - Home Fav vs. PHI - Won
28th - Home Fav vs. NYK - Won

UTH off a 5 game trip
27th - Home Fav vs. PHI - Won
29th - Road Dog vs. LAC - Won

January

MIN off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs. SAC - Lost
3rd - Home Dog vs. UTH - Lost

PHX off a 4 game trip
2nd - Home Fav vs. PHI - Won
4th - Home Fav vs. TOR - Won

PHI off a 7 game trip
5th - Home Dog vs. CLE - Won
7th - Home Dog vs. MIL - Lost

WAS off a 5 game trip
7th - Home Fav vs. NYK - Lost
9th - Home Fav vs. CHC - Won

SAC off a 4 game trip
7th - Home Dog vs. OKC - Won
9th - Home Fav vs. DEN - Lost

TOR off a 6 game trip
8th - Home Fav vs. CHA - Lost
10th - Home Fav vs. BOS - Won

IND off a 4 game trip
9th - Home Fav vs. BOS - Push
10th - Road Fav vs. PHI - Lost

PHX off a 4 game trip
13th - Home Fav vs. CLE - Won
16th - Home Fav vs. MIN - Lost

ATL off a 4 game trip
19th - Home Fav vs. DET - Won
21st - Home Fav vs. IND - Won

CLE off a 5 game trip
19th - Home Fav vs. CHC - Won
21st - Home Fav vs. UTH - Won

MIA off a 5 game trip
20th - Home Dog vs. OKC - Lost
21st - Road Dog vs. CHA - Won

NOR off a 5 game trip
21st - Home Fav vs. LAL - Won
23rd - Road Fav vs. MIN - Won

MIN off a 4 game trip
21st - Home Dog vs. DAL - Lost
23rd - Home Dog vs. NOR - Lost

LAL off a 4 game trip
25th - Home Dog vs. HOU - Lost
27th - Home Dog vs. WAS - Won

OKC off a 5 game trip
26th - Home Fav vs. MIN - Lost
28th - Road Fav vs. NYK - Lost

IND off a 5 game trip
27th - Home Dog vs. TOR - Lost
29th - Home Fav vs. NYK - Won

BOS off a 6 game trip
30th - Home Dog vs. HOU - Won
1st - Home Fav vs. MIA - Lost

WAS off a 4 game trip
31st - Home Fav vs. TOR - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs. CHA - Lost

February

SAC off a 4 game trip
3rd - Home Dog vs. GS - Lost
5th - Home Dog vs. DAL - Lost

MIA off a 4 game trip
9th - Home Fav vs. NYK - Won
11th - Road Dog vs. CLE - Lost

LAL off a 4 game trip
10th - Home Fav vs. DEN - Lost
11th - Road Dog vs. POR - Lost

CHC off a 6 game trip
10th - Home Fav vs. SAC - Won
12th - Home Dog vs. CLE - Won

LAC off a 8 game trip
11th - Home Fav vs. HOU - Won
2nd game nullified by AS break

TOR off a 6 game trip
27th - Home Dog vs. GS - Lost
28th - Road Fav vs. NYK - Lost

March

BRK off a 5 game trip
2nd - Home Dog vs. GS - Won
4th - Home Fav vs. CHA - Lost

CHA off a 4 game trip
3rd - Home Fav vs. LAL - Lost
4th - Road Dog vs. BRK - Won

GS off a 6 game trip
4th - Home Fav vs. MIL - Lost
6th - Home Fav vs. DAL - Won

SAS off a 6 game trip
4th - Home Fav vs. SAC - Won
6th - Home Fav vs. DEN - Lost

LAC off a 4 game trip
4th - Home Fav vs. POR - Lost
8th - Road Dog vs. GS - Won

MIL off a 4 game trip
7th - Home Fav vs. WAS - Won
9th - Home Fav vs. NOR - Lost

PHX off a 4 game trip
9th - Home Dog vs. GS - Lost
11th - Home Fav vs. MIN - Won

UTH off a 4 game trip
10th - Home Fav vs. NYK - Lost
12th - Home Fav vs. HOU - Won

MEM off a 4 game trip
14th - Home Fav vs. MIL - Won
16th - Home Fav vs. DEN - Lost

MIN off a 4 game trip
16th - Home Fav vs. BRK - Lost
18th - Road Dog vs. TOR - Won

SAC off a 7 game trip
16th - Home Dog vs. ATL - Lost
18th - Home Dog vs. LAC - Lost

DET off a 4 game trip
17th - Home Dog vs. MEM - Won
18th - Road Fav vs. PHI - Lost

HOU off a 4 game trip
17th - Home Fav vs. ORL - Won
19th - Home Fav vs. DEN - Won

NYK off a 5 game trip
17th - Home Dog vs. SAS - Won
19th - Road Dog vs. MIN - Lost

CLE off a 4 game trip
18th - Home Fav vs. BRK - Won
20th - Home Fav vs. IND - Lost

BRK off a 4 game trip
20th - Home Fav vs. MIL - Lost
21st - Road Dog vs. IND - Won

ATL off a 6 game trip
22nd - Home Fav vs. SAS - Lost
25th - Road Fav vs. ORL - Won

POR off a 5 game trip
24th - Home Dog vs. GS - Lost
25th - Road Dog vs. UTH - Won

CHA off a 5 game trip
25th - Home Fav vs. BRK - Lost
27th - Road Dog vs. WAS - Won

DEN off a 5 game trip
25th - Home Fav vs. PHI - Lost
27th - Home Fav vs. UTH - Won

WAS off a 4 game trip
25th - Home Fav vs. IND - Lost
27th - Home Fav vs. CHA - Lost

MIA off a 4 game trip
29th - Home Fav vs. DET - Won
31st - Home Dog vs. SAS - Lost

April

LAL off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs. NOR - Lost
3rd - Home Dog vs. POR - Lost

GS off a 4 game trip
2nd - Home Fav vs. PHX - Lost
4th - Road Fav vs. DAL - Won

SAC off a 4 game trip
3rd - Home Dog vs. NOR - Push
5th - Home Fav vs. UTH - Lost

MIN off a 4 game trip
13th - Home Dog vs. NOR - Lost
15th - Home Dog vs. OKC - Lost

PHX off a 4 game trip
14th - Home Dog vs. LAC - Lost
No 2nd game.

TOR off a 4 game trip
15th - Home Fav vs. CHA - Lost
No 2nd game.

------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>--
Overall results for the 2014-15 season -

Teams playing 1st off 4 game trips ...... 16-26-2
Teams playing 2nd off 4 game trips ..... 16-25-1

Teams playing 1st off 5+ game trips .... 15-16
Teams playing 2nd off 5+ game trips ... 18-12

Combined Results

Teams playing 1st off 4+ game trips .... 31-42-2
Teams playing 2nd off 4+ game trips ... 34-37-1
------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>--------------

 

[pip2]

Just thought I would add this in case anybody can make use of it, since I never would have thought to look into this if BC hadn't been posting these stickies: I ran a query on games that were as BC has defined: the second game after a road trip of 4 or more games. But I added some extra stipulations to this situation, such as don't count Friday games, February games, or games played after 75 games into the season. Also, only count games where, whenever it was the two teams played previously, the opponent won.

I thought the results were kind of promising: ATS: 48-100-4 (-3.41, 32.4%)

# of games...........ATS

<tbody>
[TD="align: center"]26[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]8-18-0 (-4.58, 30.8%)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]season = 2008[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]8-17-0 (-5.12, 32.0%)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]season = 2009[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]19[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]6-11-2 (-1.89, 35.3%)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]season = 2010[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]21[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]5-15-1 (-5.79, 25.0%)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]season = 2011[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]18[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]5-12-1 (-1.39, 29.4%)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]season = 2012[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]23[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]11-12-0 (2.04, 47.8%)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]season = 2013[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]21[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]13-8-0 ( (2.83, 61.9% )[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]season = 2014[/TD]

</tbody>

If this seems interesting, here is a preliminary list of games coming up fitting the above description:

11/19/2014	Hornets	Pacers	W
11/19/2014	Pistons	Suns	W
12/2/2014	Kings	Raptors	L
12/29/2014	Jazz	Clippers	W
1/03/2015	Timberwolves	Jazz	L
1/04/2015	Suns	Raptors	W
1/7/2015	Seventysixers	Bucks	L
1/21/2015	Cavaliers	Jazz	W
1/27/2015	Lakers	Wizards	W
1/29/2015	Pacers	Knicks	W
3/4/2015	Hornets	Nets	W
3/9/2015	Bucks	Pelicans	L
3/11/2015	Suns	Timberwolves	W
3/12/2015	Jazz	Rockets	W
3/18/2015	Timberwolves	Raptors	W
3/18/2015	Pistons	Seventysixers​	L
3/18/2915	Kings	Clippers	L
3/19/2015	Knicks	Timberwolves	L
Nets	Pacers	W
Trailblazers	Jazz	W
Heat	Spurs	L

<tbody>
[TD="align: center"] 3/21/2015 [/TD]

[TD="align: center"] 3/25/201 5 [/TD]

[TD="align: center"] 3/31/201 5 [/TD]

</tbody>

I am assuming the list will grow as more teams meet that criterion of losing to the opponent that they will then be facing next after returning from their (future) "BC" road trip...

 

[JBsNuggets]

So you're saying the system suggests a CLE fade tonight BC? I missed out on this last year and want to make sure I'm understanding everything. TIA

 

[pressitup]

One of the foundation threads here at CTG.
Thanks, BC

 

[BetCrimes1984]

So you're saying the system suggests a CLE fade tonight BC? I missed out on this last year and want to make sure I'm understanding everything. TIA

Sorry, only just got on the site the last 5 mins, and the game has already tipped off. Even so, my response covers my perspective on how to use this generally, so hindsight isn't an issue:

2 things then, as a result of that, specifically to the game you asked about.

(1) Generally speaking, I don't advocate basing a bet on this angle alone. As always, my pov is get everything lined up with the side you like itself, and then if your (positive) take on team A coincides with this post road trip spot angle feeds into your take against team B, then I'd think it should be viewed as a green light. That said, there are obviously some spots that are more emphatically indicated to fade teams in these 2nd games back than others (they can be found in the more broken down stats, like facing a conf team as a fav at home in a 2nd game back), so obv. should be weighted more heavily than other spots (which might need more ducks lined up in a row from other angles to make it worth considering a play).

(2) For this Cle/Bos game already on, there would've been 3 concerns for me for fading the Cavs tonight:

1 - Cle's specific spot shows a decent record (East off a 4 game trip, Away as a Fav: 12-7-1 ATS)
2 - Cle won their first game back, which generally begs a better 2nd game showing than if they'd lost or pushed their 1st game back, and
3 - Not speaking to this trend, but Cle is 3-3 SU and I can't imagine LBJ's ego will take his team being below .500 for much longer. Not the kind of scenario I'd want to be backing against the Cavs in (even though they can obv. win this game & still easily lose ATS). I imagine they go on some sort of SU run soon to whisk themselves permanently away from hovering around .500 - that of course doesn't guarantee any ATS results, but normally you can trust a SU winner covering the spread a decent amount fo the time when it's single digits in the NBA.

However, I do say all that not having capped any specifics of this game. I know little about Boston & I know the Cavs aren't yet gelling/running well (which begs the thought their lines are still inflated this early on into the season). I did read one interesting post at blankets extolling the virtues of the C's this season. And ftr - Boston is up 31-25 as I enter this post.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

One of the foundation threads here at CTG.
Thanks, BC

:cheers3:

 

[anoraxx]

BetCrimes, I think you missed Charlotte Hornets 4 game road trip between 9th and 15th November. They play today vs. Dal and you don't have the game listed.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

BetCrimes, I think you missed Charlotte Hornets 4 game road trip between 9th and 15th November. They play today vs. Dal and you don't have the game listed.

Thanks. Can't think how I missed any.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

2 1/2 months into the season, and there's a clear delineation about where teams are & aren't performing off these road trips. Combining the 1st & 2nd game numbers...

Teams off 4 game trips have gone 14-22-2 ATS over the 2 games (1st 8-10-1 & 2nd 6-12-1)
Teams off 5+ game trips have gone 15-9 ATS over the 2 games (1st 7-5 & 2nd 8-4)

Off the shorter trips, pretty much it's business as usual. Off the longer trips, the defying the historical norms I've recorded here. That seems counterintuitive when you'd expect teams off longer trips to pay a greater price, but it maybe the case the linesmakers are overcompensating for these longer trips re this spot, and not really weighing the inertia off the shorter trips as heavily.

 

[divol]

Eastern teams, playing second game on the road as favorites been doing really well the last season and a half:

9-4-0 (2.81, 69.2%)

avg line: -4.0

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[TH="align: center"]ATS:[/TH]

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[BetCrimes1984]

2 1/2 months into the season, and there's a clear delineation about where teams are & aren't performing off these road trips. Combining the 1st & 2nd game numbers...

Teams off 4 game trips have gone 14-22-2 ATS over the 2 games (1st 8-10-1 & 2nd 6-12-1)
Teams off 5+ game trips have gone 15-9 ATS over the 2 games (1st 7-5 & 2nd 8-4)

Off the shorter trips, pretty much it's business as usual. Off the longer trips, the defying the historical norms I've recorded here. That seems counterintuitive when you'd expect teams off longer trips to pay a greater price, but it maybe the case the linesmakers are overcompensating for these longer trips re this spot, and not really weighing the inertia off the shorter trips as heavily.

Since I made that post mid-Jan., the trends noted have continued unabated. Full numbers now read...

Teams off 4 game trips = 17-27-2 ATS over the 2 games (1st 9-13-1 & 2nd 8-14-1)
Teams off 5+ game trips = 22-14 ATS over the 2 games (1st 10-8 & 2nd 12-6)


Teams in their 2nd game off the longer trips remain the biggest trend busters of all.

 

[divol]

West - 1st game as a Dog vs. Conf. teams ..................... 49-30-1

Last 3.5 seasons, 11 - 17 - so the trend stopped working I assume:
http://sportsdatabase.com/nba/query...nd+o:conference=Western+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

 

[divol]

West - 2nd game @Home vs. Conf. teams ..................... 68-119-6

Here it works much much better if the team is a dog and not a favorite.
Favorites almost even (47%), while dogs only 35%.

 

[divol]

As for the two trends in the East - they don't work as well, but the opposite does nicely - HD and AF in second game with both teams from the East gives 60%+ success rate.


Teams playing the second game without rest on the road, are 11 - 21 (34%) - so good fade.
Also second game without rest is a great Under spot - especially if played at home.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

West - 1st game as a Dog vs. Conf. teams ..................... 49-30-1

Last 3.5 seasons, 11 - 17 - so the trend stopped working I assume:
http://sportsdatabase.com/nba/query...nd+o:conference=Western+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

It seems to have stopped working this season, given a 3-6 mark on your linked list up until the time it stops (based on opening lines Minny lost to Sac in Jan., meaning that mark is actually 2-7 re my records). Results on that list prior to this season sit at 8-12, a mark which, again, doesn't reflect opening line results, where significant line moves could mean 2 of those 12 losers were actually recorded as opening line winners (given the final results fell within a bucket of the closing line).

As some of my posts above already testify, this season seems to be one out of the box on certain fronts.

West - 2nd game @Home vs. Conf. teams ..................... 68-119-6

Here it works much much better if the team is a dog and not a favorite.
Favorites almost even (47%), while dogs only 35%.

off 4 game trips
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 28-52-3
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog .................... 14-17-1

off 5+ game trips
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ...................... 21-30-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ....................... 5-20

Here it works best (if you must bet against the trend) if the Dog is off a 4 game trip, and the Fav is off a 5+ game trip. But no matter where you look, it hasn't worked to any degree full stop, which is why I lumped them altogether.