NBA 2008-09, Week 8 thread...

[brewers7]

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 29-28, -$133
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 177-176-6
#1 picks: 25-24

Totals: 182-168-9
#1 picks: 22-25-2
=====================================

Day 50:

As the busy season is upon me at my place of business, my time will be limited...Almost considered not posting any more this year after a frustrating week and bad day yesterday as my bets went 0-2 despite going 7-2 with my Sides and 5-3-1 with totals...I liked the card a lot yesterday, but decided to stay away from game bets one more day and paid for it...I was really psyched and looking forward to this NBA season after not posting last year and having a solid year with minimal effort...If things don't change in the next few weeks, then I may have to accept the fact that this may be my first losing season ever in the NBA and I have been capping it since 1982-83...Only 2 units down, but it feels like I am 200 units down, quite frankly...Never had a start quite like this one...

I may be forced to cut back some write-ups due to time constraints, but we'll see...

I just checked my database and am a bit surprised that there has never been a C6 vs. a NC6 since the 1991-92 season...Knicks/Lakers match-up tonight has that...Here are examples similar:

NC vs. C8 happened twice and the NC6 covered both times as DOGs that lost by small margins...

C6 vs. NC7 happened twice and the NC7 covered both times, once as a FAV of 6.5 winning by 15 and the other as a small DOG that lost but covered...

C6 vs. NC8, same thing, NC8 a small DOG that lost but covered...

C6 vs. NC9, NC9 covered, a 7.5 DOG that won outright...

6-0 ATS for the team that was on the NC streak...

Fairly rare to have a Cover team vs. a Not Cover team with decent streaks be such a huge DOG...Biggest DOG I could find was a C6 vs. a NC5 and the C6 covered as 10.5 DOGs...

Using NC6 vs. C5 and C6 vs. NC5 was about a coin-flip with about a 16-game sample...

I like the Lakers here, at first blush, but giving that many points, man, I dunno, we'll see...Be back with picks in a bit...

No BETS yet...

GL... <!-- / message -->

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

 

[SportsNut]

Any info on teams playing 5 or longer road trips who have covered the 1st 4 ATS ?? I dont have data to back it up but know its something that is a rarity as well .

 

[brewers7]

Any info on teams playing 5 or longer road trips who have covered the 1st 4 ATS ?? I dont have data to back it up but know its something that is a rarity as well .

For the Knicks game that is tonight?...

ORL just covered that spot last night...So what are the odds that spot can cover 2 nights in a row?...

I don't have that info handy though, sorry...

I may have to do what BetCrimes does, and make a list for the offseason and complie ALL of those interesting spots...That is a good one to do, for sure...

 

[brewers7]

Sides:

#1 LAL -13.5
#2 Hou -3
#3 OKC +5
#4 Chi -2.5
#5 Memp +6.5
#6 Sac +12.5

Totals:

#1 Hou un 199
#2 Memp ov 193
#3 Chi un 188
#4 LAL ov 222.5
#5 OKC un 199
#6 Sac ov 199.5
<!-- / message -->

 

[brewers7]

BET:

Level 1 -- Los Angeles Lakers -13.5, laying $252.50 to win $250 -- Would be a Level 2 play, but I hate laying these kinds of spreads...Talked about this already as teams currently on long cover streaks have a GREAT dal of problems covering teams currently on long Not-Cover streaks and we have a C6 vs. NC6 tonight with the Lakers being in the NC6 spot...Also, the Knicks are ending a 5-game road-trip and have covered the first 4 games...Coming into this season, since 1991-92, that has happened 25 times and the road team is 8-17 ATS in their final Road game of the trip...Now, ORL had this same exact spot last night and Covered, so what are the odds that thi spot can Cover on consecutive nights?...A spot so rare to begin with?...I guess we'll see after tonight...Lake-Show over-"due" to hammer the hell out of someone anyway and if the Knicks don't hit treys tonight, they will get blown out of Staples because I don't see them getting squat in the paint with the giants the Lakers have under the basket...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...
<!-- / message --><!-- / message -->
<!-- / message -->

 

[brewers7]

BET:

Level 2 -- Los Angeles Lakers -11, 2H, laying $825 to win $750 -- Would be a Level 3 play, but because the Lakers are down 15 and the 2H lines takes this to a 4-point game loss for a cover instead of putting the "new" game line to a 1 or 2-point win for LAL, it is NOT as strong a play for me, but I just don't see the Lakers losing this game...51% shooting for NY and 36% for LAL meets the criteria (15% difference)...Had LAL been down 9, 10, 11 or 12 points, this would have been a Level 3 play...
<!-- / message -->

 

[brewers7]

I just bet these, so am posting in case lines move...Picks and updated records later...

BET:

Level 1 -- Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5, laying $250 to win $265 -- Minny has lost 10 in a row and CLE just had an 11-game winning streak end last time out at ATL...CLE has won 19 of their last 20...These 2 injuries to "Z" and Gibson are going to catch up with them...Look-ahead game potentially as Denver is next up...You generally see the effort-level rise for most NBA teams the longer a losing streak goes...Minny got thrashed at SAC last time out and I look for them to give CLE some fight tonight as Kevin McHale is still looking for his first win...No reason why the back-door shouldn't be open late in this one...

Level 1 -- Atlanta Hawks Pick (+149 -- MatchBook), laying $168 to win $250 -- Boston has tied the best start in NBA history and have won 15 in a row...Is Pierce 100%?...Atlanta must have something to prove here and would love to make a statement that what happened at Home last April in the playoffs was no fluke...The Hawks only lost to the Celtics by 1 at BOS early in the season when they were in a bad spot, in the back-end of a back-to-back and BOS was rested...Boston cannot win every game the rest of the way, so this is as good a spot as any to see them lose, as the Hawks are 9-1 at Home...They have established a dominant home-court advantage starting with that playoff series last April...BIG game for the Hawks and I'll take the team that has the motivational edge every time...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...

 

[brewers7]

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 1-1, -$30
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 29-29, -$135.50
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 178-181-6
#1 picks: 25-25

Totals: 184-172-9
#1 picks: 22-26-2
=====================================

Day 51:

Running late again and this may become a theme here...

Sides:

#1 Min +10
#2 Atl +4
#3 Phi -3.5
#4 GS +6.5
#5 Chi -3
#6 NO -2
#7 Utah -2.5
#8 Dal -2.5
#9 Was +9.5

Totals:

#1 GS ov 226.5
#2 NO un 185
#3 Dal un 198
#4 Atl un 187
#5 Chi un 195
#6 Was un 200
#7 Min un 187
#8 Utah un 199
#9 Phi un 193


BETS posted...

GL... <!-- / message -->

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

 

[brewers7]

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 1-1, -$30
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 29-31, -$553.50
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 184-184-6
#1 picks: 25-26

Totals: 192-173-9
#1 picks: 23-26-2
=====================================

Day 52:

Very strong chart plays for the Portland game on both the side and the total...PHOE had an Over 9 snapped last time out and PORT had a NC7 snapped last time out...Chart-plays in a slump the last 10 days...Quasi-chart plays doing very well, but I haven't bet enough of those lately...All picks 14-4 last nigth but managed to go 0-2 with bets...Same thing Monday as I went 12-5-1 with my picks and 0-2 with bets last night...Taking the night off unless I see a 2H play or unless I want to bet PORT because I think they win this...PHOE has won 11 straight and 15 of 16 h2h in this series so I know the motivational edhe goes to the Blazers...

Sides:

#1 Port -4.5
#2 SA -2.5

Totals:

#1 Port un 203
#2 SA ov 192

NO BETS...

GL... <!-- / message -->

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

<!-- / message -->

 

[SF_capper]

GL man. way to stay patient

 

[brewers7]

Thanx...Of course PORT covers (barely), but hopefully my "patience" will pay off tonight...

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 1-1, -$30
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 29-31, -$553.50
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 185-185-6
#1 picks: 26-26

Totals: 192-175-9
#1 picks: 23-27-2
=====================================

Day 53:

First Level 3 play of the year...I like this Knicks game Over, too, but do I really need to bet another game with a Level 3 game on the board?...I might play it, we'll see...I like my top 3 totals, but may pass...Maybe there will be a 2H play if a gift presents itself...

Sides:

#1 Den -1
#2 Sac +12.5
#3 Mia +7.5
#4 OKC +6
#5 Chi +12.5
#6 Was +1
#7 Det -3
#8 GS +10.5
#9 Memp -4
#10 Milw +4
#11 Dal -3.5
#12 LAC +2.5

Totals:

#1 Milw ov 215.5
#2 Sac un 203.5
#3 Memp un 182.5
#4 Den un 198.5
#5 Det un 191.5
#6 Chi un 196
#7 Mia un 203
#8 Was ov 193.5
#9 LAC un 207
#10 Dal un 199
#11 OKV un 199.5
#12 GS un 217

BET:

Level 3 -- Denver Nuggets -1, laying $1785 to win $1750 -- Won't be too many of these during the year, but a spot has finally reared its head for a Level 3 play...I have yet to find a factor to point to CLE here...Revenge spot for Denver...They have owned CLE for the most part since LeBron and Melo came into the league...The first time they played at CLE, the Nuggets had only had Chauncy Billips playing his 4th game with the Nuggets since the trade...Since Billups has been on board, the Nuggets have not lost 2 games in a row...Denver is off a loss here...CLE has been scorching hot, covering 11 of 12 and 15 of 17 and are the best ATS team in the league...You have to remember something about this recent cover streak, covering 12 of 13...Atlanta was the ONLY winning team they faced during the streak, and it was the first game of the streak and they beat them and covered against them at Home...ATL later beat them at ATL to end the streak...When CLE "steps up in class" and plays teams that are "elite" teamsor close to elite, they are 1-2 SU this season and 0-2 SU on the Road against REAL quality competition (won against DEN at Home and lost to New Orleans & Boston on the Road)...If you want to include "Tier 2" teams like ATL and Utah, well, it comes down to Home and Away...CLE is 3-0 at Home and 0-3 on the Road if you want to include these teams in the mix...Ilgauskas and Gibson injuries will matter against top-notch competition and we saw that at ATL 2 games ago...A quasi-chart play to fade CLE...A bit of a statement game for sure here for Denver on National TV...The motivational edge is clearly with the Nuggets, and since every factor that I have looked at points to Denver AND they have the motivational edge to boot, this becomes a Level 3 play as we have TONS of VALUE here due to Cleveland's incrediblt ATS run as we only need a Denver win here to win (unless they win by 1 and it's a push)...

Again, at Level 3, I am betting to win 10% of my Level 3 bankroll, 5% of my Level 2 bankrool and 2.5% of my Level 1 bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...
<!-- / message -->

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

 

[Marlo]

Wasn't surprised to see you playing this. Figured you would be all over.

 

[tuck321]

Actually makes a lot of sense to me. First game of a very tough 4 in 5. Great history. Referees not so good but the team has bounced back after losses extremely well. Serious injuries still weakening Cleveland. 10 game home winning streak on Friday. Guess I will be on this one with you. GL

 

[MeasyMoney]

gonna tail you heavy on this one. public will be all over james, i hate betting against him but i really believe this is a day he loses. im throwin 10 units. bol to the both of us! :cheers:

 

[nropp11]

nice.

 

[broadwayjoe]

neil, where the hell is your bowl thread?

 

[brewers7]

BET:

Level 1 -- Memphis Grizzlies -6, 2H, laying $262.50 to win $250 -- PC froze, so posting this late but 2H didn't start yet...CHAR shot 72% in the 1H to MEMP shooting 44%...The 2H line puts the "new" game line above the only "key" number in the NBA (7), so the "new" game line is MEMP +8 and I'll take this with the 1H shooting discrepancy...

GL...
<!-- / message -->

 

[brewers7]

I want to apologize to the board for that stone loser Friday night...I fell asleep abou 30 minutes before it started and slept through the entire game...Woke up and saw a voicemail waiting for me from a few teammates who obviously tailed me and they called after the 1Q had ended and razzed me pretty good for that sh*tty call, as well they should...I may be good fade material for a few weeks and I recommend watching me for now and laying off my picks until the corner is turned...

My modus operandi has always been that I will hit one hot streak during the season that will last 5 to 6 weeks (some years up to 9 or 10 weeks, if I am on)...So I would wait for me to have a hot week and then perhaps tail me after the corner is turned...I would tail the other good cappers on this board for now and lay off all my picks till further notice...Please keep money management in mind...I lost almost 7% of my bankroll last night with my 2 picks and have lost about 10% of my bankroll the last 2 weeks...Just a terrible stretch...No point in tailing me right now...

When things aren't working, adjustments need to be made on the fly...I am an eyelash away from changing to a grind-it-out style, betting every game on the NBA board with a completely different betting system...Completely different...But I am not sure I want to re-organize my bankroll to accomodate this just yet, and I also know that virtually nobody on forums would be interested in this style as most people are looking for 1 or 2 plays a day...But I may switch over if I continue to fail over the next month...I hate losing money, so it I continue to sputter with my bets, then I will switch over to a grind-it-out style with a unique betting style that most people won't agree with, but as I back-test the betting style, I think it'll work for me and my bankroll...Most people aren't going to want to deal with it and I don't blame them really...I just hate to lose...I despise losing...

Anyway, placed a bet which I recommened you lay off unless you see some other good cappers on this forum on it...If not, fade it or just watch for a week...Let me muddle through this cold spell for a while here...I will just feel better knowing people are NOT following my picks until I show signs that I can make winning bets again...My goal right now is simply to have a winning record at all 3 levels by year's end...

Will have picks and updated records later...

BET:

Level 2 -- Los Angeles Lakers -1.5, laying $787.50 to win $750 -- Still some -1's out there as I bet this...Lakers on a NC8 and ORL scorching hot and on a C6...Lakers are playing like crap while Orlando is playing great...I have already talked about the history of long NC streaks vs. long C streaks...The NC streak will covers in this particular spot over 70% of the time (and with NC8 or higher, it's more like over 80% of the time...I am a trend guy and have to play these odds...Plus, most of those teams that have the NC8 are teams with losing records...Here we have the Lakers, who are 21-4, a true rarity of a spot here...Lakers are 4-1 ATS on back-enders...However, going aginst is the fact that ORL is 4-0 ATS when they have rest and their opponents do not...Lakers off a loss are 1-2 ATS, but 1-0 ATS on the Road after a loss, when they have a lower number to deal with...Lakers haven't lost twice in a row all season...Doesn't mean they will win here, but I am playing the odds on that and the odds on the long NC streak team covering successfully vs. the long C streak team...

Again, at Level 2, I am betting to win 5% of my Level 2 bankrool and 2.5% of my Level 1 bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...
<!-- / message -->

 

[DuY!]

Glad we're on the same side

 

[brewers7]

updated records...

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -1020
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 1-1, -$540
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 29-32, -$1071
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 190-192-6
#1 picks: 26-27

Totals: 198-181-9
#1 picks: 23-28-2
=====================================

Day 54:

This betting system was designed to bet a Level 2 play almost every day, either my top total or top side...But I haven't done that due to a slow start...I may start doing that, at least with my #1 Side play, on a daily basis, just hoping for a short run, a little burst, even though my #1 Sides are 8-15 my last 23...Looking for that to reverse itself, at least, but the million-dollar question is when will that start to reverse itself to the mean?...

Again, I strongly recommend NOT following me until it is CLEAR that I have turned the corner...If you are losing too much tailing me (or anyone) then you are betting too much...I have lost about 10% of my bankroll the last 2 weeks and it has been a really, really bad run...You gotta leave yourself outs, got look at this as a grind...You need to be playing no more than 2.5 to 7.5% of your bankroll on ANY of my plays (or anyone elses)...And most plays should be 2 to 3% of your BR...

Sides:

#1 LAL -1.5
#2 Den +5.5
#3 Min +5.5
#4 NJ -5
#5 Utah -2.5
#6 LAC +6
#7 Tor +10
#8 Phi -10.5
#9 GS +6.5
#10 Sac +15.5

Totals:

#1 Utah un 201.5
#2 Den ov 222
#3 GS ov 207.5
#4 Phi un 200.5
#5 Tor un 185
#6 Min un 192
#7 NJ ov 195
#8 LAL ov 205.5
#9 Sac ov 196.5
#10 LAC un 192

Additional Bets:

Level 1 -- Denver Nuggets +5.5, laying $252.50 to win $250 -- I am hoping I was on this team one day too early, which has been the case way, way too much this season...DEN 4-2 ATS in back-enders and PHOE is 2-3 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not...DEN got thrashed last night at Home vs. CLE and I feel that they will come out tonight hungry to end a 2-game losing streak, their first since early NOV...Even if they do lose 3 in a row for the first time all season and even though they haven't won in PHOE since April of 2004, I strongly feel this game comes down to the final seconds and the Nuggets can squezze under that number if they don't win outright...PHOE a different team at Home than in recent seasons as they are just 4-9 ATS at Home...

Level 1 -- Denver/Phoenix over 57, 1Q, laying $275 to win $250 -- Don't know if I can do another Over 1Q, 1H and game after last SAT, even though these 2 teams have gone Over the 1Q, 1H and game total the last 6 h2h meetings...I'll choose the 1Q here as they have scored at least 60 in each of those last 6 meetings...Watching that PHOE/PORT game from THUR night, I don't see how these two won't score 250+, but I have learned over the years that watching games on TV can be dangerous at times, because you see that PHOE/PORT game and think there is no way PHOE could ever play another Under the rest of the season, but then next time out, they go and play an Under...For the record, PHOE has gone over 10 of their last 11 game totals...I'll stick with the 1Q total for this one...

Again, with Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of my Level 1 bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...
<!-- / message -->
================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================