NBA 2008-09, Week 7 thread...

brewers7

brewers7

Pretty much a regular
Random thoughts:

Since the berth of the Internet, the betting industry has really changed drastically in favor of the bettor...Although Vegas, to their credit, has made adjustments to many bettors being educated by sharing information on gambling forums like this one...

So bettors also need to make adjustments and go after lines where they still have a big advantage...Lines that Vegas really cannot do much about in some spots, and the best lines to attack are the 2H lines...

I have been "practicing" making 2nd half bets all season (and have made plenty of 2H bets over the years), but have only bet 3 (2 posted) and am 2-0 this season...The first 3 1/2 weeks, I was terrible with the 2H "practice" bets, losing almost all of the ones I considered making real bets on...But I have been scorching hot the last 2 weeks or so, winning almost all of them...I should be "actually" betting more of these...

What I look for with 2nd half bets

I like betting 2H Overs (after a low-scoring 1H) and 2H Favorites (the bigger the game FAV, the better, at Home, when they are down a bunch at the half)...

Let's start with the Overs...

My last 2H bet on Sunday is an example of the "perfect storm" or should I say, perfect situation to bet a 2H Over...

Criteria I look for:

1) Total number of points scored must be low...By low, I mean, did we have a game in the 60s or low 70s at the half?...

2) Did both teams shoot poorly in the 1H?...By poorly, I mean one team MUST be below 35% (hopefully around 30%) and the other team should be less than 40% (closer to 35% would be nice)...

If 1 & 2 equals true on both counts then look at the 2H line...

3) Use this formula: Take (the original Vegas game total line) minus (the Vegas 2H total line) minus (the total number of points scored in the 1st half) and if this number is 30 or more, then we may have a play...

4) You look at the pace of the game...Add up the total number of shots taken and the total number of free-throws taken...80 shots taken and 20 FTs taken, give or take, is a "fast" pace...

Now I haven't sat down and written out specific criteria for what is a "fast" pace and what is not for the 1H, but I kind of "know it when I see it" based on experience and looking at tons of boxscores...Maybe I should write down specific criteria...

If all 4 of the above criteria are met, then this is automatic bet on the 2H Over...

You can bet the 2H Over if all 4 criteria are not met, but you better have 3 of the 4 criteria met to be on the safe side, and the pace of the 1H is the most important criteria that MUST be met...

I have seen plenty of games where 1 through 3 are met, but not #4, and the 2H total stays Under...#4 is the clincher in the deal...But if you got #4 met with ease, then you can skimp a little bit on the other 3 criteria and have them off by a little and still make a bet on the Over...

So there is the criteria, now let's examine the criteria in action, by looking at why I bet the Milwaukee/L.A. Lakers game Over 103.5, 2H, this past Sunday...

Game total: 211
Lakers 43-31 at the half
1H shooting: Milw 14-45, 31.1%, LAL 15-41, 36.6%
Total 1H shots: 86
Total 1H Free-throws taken: 21
Total points: 74
2H total line: 103.5

Criteria 1: 74
Criteria 2: 31% & 37%
Criteria 3: 211 - 103.5 - 74 = 33.5
Criteria 4: 86 shots & 21 FTs taken

All criteria met...Take the Over 103.5...

2H results:

MILW 21-47, 44.7%
also 16-20 from the FT line

LAL 19-29, 65.5%
also 22-26 from the FT line

2H shooting combined, 40-76, 52.6%

123 points scored...

Why do I use this criteria for a 2H Over?...

2 main reasons...

1) It is very rare for 2 teams to finish an NBA game at the percentages these 2 teams had at the half (31% and 37%)...Very, very rare, and I have 17+ NBA seasons worth of games (boxscores) to prove it...So it is very reasonable to assume, based on a sample of over 20,000 games, that when NBA teams shoot at very low percentages in the 1st half (like the MILW/LAL game cited above) then those percentages are going up in the 2H...It's called "returning to the mean"...This is NBA basketball, it's just the nature of the game for this to happen with professional athletes...

2) Not many NBA games that stay 30 points under the Vegas total...Does it ever happen?...Yes, of course it does, several times a season (during the course of over 1000 games per season)...But when an NBA game does stay 30 or more points below the Vegas line, the PACE of the game is way, way slower than the pace was for this MILW/LAL game in the 1H...

Now to taking 2H Favorites...

I don't have set criteria for taking the FAVs in the 2H (although maybe I should draw up some "set" criteria like I did for the 2H Overs)...

But there are a few more favorable situations to consider with 2H FAVs than there is with 2H Overs...

What I look for is a big Home FAV (preferably a double-digit favorite) to be down big at the half (preferably by double digits)...

The 2H line means a LOT...

Let's look at a posted 2H bet that I won back on Day 19:

November 15 -- Utah at Cleveland

CLE 10.5 FAVs for the game, down 7 at the half...
The 2H line was CLE -9.5...

Let's look at the 1H numbers:

Utah 20-38 (52.6%) from the field...Cleveland 16-40 (40%) from the field...

What these numbers mean to me:

1) CLE only needs to win the game by 3 to cover the 2H spread (CLE originally 10.5 FAVs for the game)...So I just picked up 8 points on the original Vegas number, going from 10.5 FAVs to 2.5 FAVs for the game line...

2) Utah shot almost 13% better than CLE in the 1H, so I expect CLE to reverse that to the mean and get those numbers closer to even for the game...

Play on Cleveland -9.5, 2H line...

2H results:

Utah shot 13-34 (38.2%) in the 2H, putting Utah at 45.8% for the game
CLE shot 20-39 (51.3%) in the 2H, putting CLE at 45.6% for the game

CLE outscored Utah 59-40 in the 2H to win the game 105-93, easily covering the 2H line and even covering the game line...

So a good situation to bet big Home FAVs in the 2H is:

1) Bet a good team, preferably a top-flyte team
2) Bet on a double-digit Home FAV, preferably
3) When the FAV is being outshot by at least 10% from the field at the half (preferably more than 15% and closer to 20%)
4) Best time to bet is when the 2H line puts the FAV as a small favorite for the "new" game line at the start of the 2H (3-point FAVs or less on the "new" game line at the start of the 2H)

Also, if you have a medium-range Home FAV (6 to 9 points) and they are down BIG at the half, and the 2H line puts them in a spot where they are at least 7-point DOGs for the "new" game line at the half, then they are also a solid 2H play if they are being out-shot badly (percentage-wise) at the half...

Example:

GS at LAL last 3/23/08

Lakers 7-point FAVs at Home on the game line and down 23 at the half...
LAL -8 on the 2H line...

1H numbers:
GS shot 28-51 (54.9%) at the half
LAL shot 19-48 (39.6%) at the half

So we have:

1) 15% difference in FG% in favor of GS (meets criteria)
2) Lakers are +7 or greater on the "new game line" to start the 2H (meets criteria)...now +15 on the new game line starting the 2H (if they lose the game by 15, you push, if they lose by 14 or less or win, you win the 2H bet)...

Results:

LAL outscored GS 62-43 in the 2H to EASILY cover the 2H line (lost the game by 4)...
GS shot 10-38 (26.3%) for the 2H
LAL shot 20-47 (42.6%) for the 2H

Anyway, as far as 2H Unders and underdogs go, that'll have to wait for another day, but I don't play these 2 options much...


Look at Tuesday's action:

Det/Was -- Pistons have lost 3 of 4 and don't look good right now...DET Under 4 straight and 9 of 10...WAS had not covered 2 in a row all season until Week 6, where they Covered all 4 games in a 5-day span...Wiz had been 4-0-1 to the Under before going way Over their last game, a 4th game in 5 nights ("tired" legs = no defense)...

Tor/Cle -- Almost a "perfect storm" yet again...Cavs on a C8 and Toronto just missed coming in with a NC8, but barely covered last time out with a 1-point loss vs. PORT at Home as a small DOG...I have a NBA database that goes back to the 1991-92 season and there has never been a C8 vs. NC8 match-up...Never...However, just last season, we had a C8 vs. NC7 on 2/26/08 with PORT (NC7) at LAL (C8)...Lakers were 15.5 chalk and won by 13, so they didn't cover...

There are 7 examples that are similar to a C8 vs. a NC8...Here they are:

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 328pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=435 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 52pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2523" width=69><COL style="WIDTH: 15pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 731" width=20><COL style="WIDTH: 37pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1792" width=49><COL style="WIDTH: 22pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1060" width=29><COL style="WIDTH: 11pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 548" width=15><COL style="WIDTH: 23pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1097" width=30><COL style="WIDTH: 17pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 804" width=22><COL style="WIDTH: 62pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2998" width=82><COL style="WIDTH: 20pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 987" width=27><COL style="WIDTH: 26pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1280" width=35><COL style="WIDTH: 13pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 621" width=17><COL style="WIDTH: 14pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 694" width=19><COL style="WIDTH: 16pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 768" width=21><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 52pt; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" width=69 height=17>Team</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 15pt; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" width=20></TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 37pt; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" width=49>Date</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 22pt; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" width=29>Day</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 11pt; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" width=15></TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 23pt; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" width=30></TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 17pt; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" width=22></TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 62pt; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" width=82>Team</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 20pt; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" width=27></TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 26pt; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" width=35>Line</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 13pt; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" width=17></TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 14pt; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" width=19></TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 16pt; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" width=21></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" height=17>Houston</TD><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffcc">C8</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" x:num="34081">4/22/93</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">Th</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">H</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">FAV</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: silver; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">vs.</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">Minnesota</TD><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffcc">NC6</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" x:num>-14</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">W</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" x:num>2</TD><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99">NC</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl32 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 52pt; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" width=69 height=17>Houston</TD><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffcc">C8</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" x:num="36500">12/6/99</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">Mon</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">H</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">FAV</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: silver; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">vs.</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">Vancouver</TD><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffcc">NC6</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" x:num>-7</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">W</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" x:num>3</TD><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99">NC</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" height=17>LA Lakers</TD><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffcc">C8</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" x:num="39504">2/26/08</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">Tue</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">H</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">FAV</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: silver; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">vs.</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">Portland</TD><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffcc">NC7</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" x:num>-15.5</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">W</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" x:num>13</TD><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99">NC</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" height=17>Grizzlies</TD><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffcc">C6</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" x:num="39050">11/29/06</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">Wed</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">A</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">DOG</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: silver; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">vs.</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">LA Clippers</TD><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffcc">NC7</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" x:num>6.5</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">L</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" x:num>15</TD><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99">NC</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" height=17>Toronto</TD><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffcc">C6</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" x:num="37351">4/5/02</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">Fri</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">A</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">FAV</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: silver; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">vs.</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">Chicago</TD><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffcc">NC7</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" x:num>-4.5</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">W</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" x:num>2</TD><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99">NC</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl32 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 52pt; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" width=69 height=17>Phoenix</TD><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffcc">C6</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" x:num="33579">12/7/91</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">Sat</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">A</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">FAV</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: silver; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">vs.</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">Miami</TD><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffcc">NC8</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" x:num>-3.5</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">W</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" x:num>1</TD><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99">NC</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" height=17>Indiana</TD><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffcc">C6</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" x:num="38452">4/10/05</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">Sun</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">H</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">FAV</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: silver; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">vs.</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">New York</TD><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffcc">NC9</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" x:num>-7.5</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8">L</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #d4d0c8" x:num>1</TD><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99">NC</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

As you can see, the team on the long NC streak covered EVERY game...7-0 ATS...So you can see why I was rooting for the Raptors not to cover against PORT on Sunday as we would have had a NC8 vs. C8...

But, Toronto now becomes a chart-play for me (NC7 streak just ended, now the streak should reverse itself)...And CLE is going for a C9, which has only happened 39 times since the 1991-92 season...Obviously, strictly from a trendy point of view, I like the Raptors here, getting double-digits...

Utah/Min -- no line...Minny coming in with a NC7...Minny has beaten Utah 2 straight and 3 of 4 at Minny...Lean to the T'Wolves here...

Atl/Hou -- Rockets suddenly an Over team (5 straight Overs and 8 of 9) while ATL has become an Under team (3-0-2 to the Under last 5)...Home team has won 8 of 9 h2h, covering 7, but HOU won at ATL their last h2h meeting...HOU 3-2 to the Over in back-enders...

NY/Chi -- Knicks Under 4 straight and 5 of 6 now...CHI had been 4-0-1 to the Under in regulation until their last game against the Wiz that went way Over...This one smells like an Over to me, but we'll see...

SA/Dal -- no line...Revenge spot for the Spurs as they lost at Home by 17 to the Mavs in early NOV...SA looking like they are coming together with back-to-back impressive wins...Mavs have won 4 straight, but 3 of them at Home in more-or-less unimpressive fashion except for the win over the Suns...

Milw/Phoe -- Suns on a NC5 while the Bucks just keep covering almost every damn time out (15-6-1 ATS on the closing line)...9 of the last 10 Over h2h and Bucks have a revenge spot after losing to the Suns at Home a month ago...Suns also have gone Over 6 straight games...

Orl/Port -- Blazers first game Home after a road trip...Only ORL's 4th time having a back-ender, and they are 2-1 ATS so far...PORT 1-2 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not...PORT had been 7-0-1 to the under before going Over their last game, so a bit of a chart-play to the Over here...ORL 2-1 to the Over on back-enders this season...ORL a revenge spot for a home loss a month ago to PORT...

LAL/Sac -- no line although it looks like Kevin Martin won't play (listed as doubtful)...This series Over 8 of last 9 h2h...This is a home-and-home for LAL, but SAC has to play PHOE in between playing the Lakers twice...Lakers had been Over 6 straight, now Under 2 straight, so still a chart-play to the Under for them...Lakers have won and covered 4 straight at Arco Arena...
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Something to be noted in the Portland Orlando game would be that it is somewhat debatable which team is more set up for revenge. Since 2007 Orlando 3 to Portland 1. Portland one of the best 3 rebounding teams in the NBA at home against a very average rebounding Orlando with Howard off a 43 minute game. Think he could still handle it against most teams. Portland--? This is the team that the Lakers have lost 6 straight against in this building and they are very unhappy about their result at Boston who as it happens is one of the 3 other top rebounding teams in the NBA. Seeing all trends its hard for me to think this is actually a good spot for Orlando tonight. GL
 
Last edited:
tuck321 said:
Something to be noted in the Portland Orlando game would be that it is somewhat debatable which team is more set up for revenge. Since 2007 Orlando 3 to Portland 1. Portland one of the best 3 rebounding teams in the NBA at home against a very average rebounding Orlando with Howard off a 43 minute game. Think he could still handle it against most teams. Portland--? This is the team that the Lakers have lost 6 straight against in this building and they are very unhappy about their result at Boston who as it happens is one of the 3 other top rebounding teams in the NBA. Seeing all trends its hard for me to think this is actually a good spot for Orlando tonight. GL
Click to expand...

I just point out "revenge" spots for informational purposes and also as reminders to myself...

The more pertinent "stat" for that game probably is the one I heard from the Clippers color man last night during the telecast and that stat is that ORL has yet to beat a team with a winning record this year...16-5 and yet to beat a winning team?...Hard to believe...I just looked and he may be wrong because they beat Dallas, so unless Dallas had a losing record when they played ORL, which is certainly possible...
 
Balzers are too strong for Magic i think, unless they fall into "first game home after long trip" trap they should be fine...the key will be in the paint i believe if Howard grabs couple of fouls quickly Blazers will rule!
 
I need to place a bet now in case this line has topped out...

BET:

Level 1 -- Toronto Raptors +12, laying $275 to win $250 -- Do I dare put a tiny play on the moneyline too?...I guess I can't really with how Toronto has struggled at CLE historically and how well CLE has played all year and how terrible TOR has played recently...Looks like Toronto has NO CHANCE tonight and that is when I will jump just about every time on a 12-point DOG...Despite their recent horrible performance, Toonto has a talented squad...They should be playing the "David" role vs. Goliath tonight and have a "nothing to lose" mentality...For me, it's a big-time chart-play on Toronto and the Cavs are on a C8 and only 39 teams in the last 17+ seasons have reached a C9 or higher, so I'll play the odds here as I certainly have VALUE with this line, I don't care what anyone says, even if Cleveland beats them by 30 tonight, I'll take this spot every time...
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Didnt check the ORL stat as far as record vs team played but DAL surely was below 500. They are now 11-8 but 9-1 L10 .

Another comment on looking for 2nd H plays is how the score or lead was built ? For instince take the example you used to determine a 2nd Total and apply to it looking for a side to play . As in one team having a small lead and again dont have specific number in mind but whats small maybe 6 pts or less , now look at shots taken , 3 pts taken and FT taken and rebounding . The most glaring stat I look for is shooting pct . At times we have games with small leads and one team is shooting 50 something percent and the other is below 40% ...Then I look at the other stats and see are if there any edges or regression that could occur .

Basically if a team especially an underdog has a small lead based on a very high shooting percentage or even wide margin in shooting % vs the opponent look to fade them in the 2nd H. As you said look for that team to have a regression to the mean but also even the slightest improvement which again for teams below 40 or near 40% is very likely (especially at home) . Just simple math not even worrying much about anything then having the winning team miss 2 or 3 more shots then it made % wise in the 1st H and the losing team boost it % by making 2 or 3 shots in the 2nd H. Very easily you have an 8-12 pt swing and if we say 10 point swing then how many 2ndH's have 10 pt lines ? Not many ....

:shake:
 
Like Toronto as well . Series history has always shown competitive games ....

Game Results

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead colSpan=8>Recent Meetings</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2b width="12%">Date</TD><TD class=datahl2b width="27%">Home/Away</TD><TD class=datahl2b width="10%">Line</TD><TD class=datahl2b width="12%">O/U</TD><TD class=datahl2b width="8%">Mar</TD><TD class=datahl2b width="11%">Home FG</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Away FG</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Reb</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>03/21/08</TD><TD class=datacell>CLE 90 - TOR 83</TD><TD class=datacell>CLE -4.5</TD><TD class=datacell>U 191</TD><TD class=datacell>2.5 </TD><TD class=datacell>36/77</TD><TD class=datacell>34/86</TD><TD class=datacell>51-35</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>01/06/08</TD><TD class=datacell>TOR 90 - CLE 93</TD><TD class=datacell>CLE 4.0</TD><TD class=datacell>U 185</TD><TD class=datacell>7.0 </TD><TD class=datacell>35/71</TD><TD class=datacell>35/85</TD><TD class=datacell>33-52</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>11/30/07</TD><TD class=datacell>TOR 91 - CLE 82</TD><TD class=datacell>TOR -6.5</TD><TD class=datacell>U 189</TD><TD class=datacell>2.5 </TD><TD class=datacell>35/73</TD><TD class=datacell>30/77</TD><TD class=datacell>44-39</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>11/24/07</TD><TD class=datacell>CLE 111 - TOR 108</TD><TD class=datacell>TOR 4.5</TD><TD class=datacell>O 190.5</TD><TD class=datacell>1.5 </TD><TD class=datacell>43/83</TD><TD class=datacell>41/83</TD><TD class=datacell>47-28</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>03/03/07</TD><TD class=datacell>CLE 120 - TOR 97</TD><TD class=datacell>CLE -5.5</TD><TD class=datacell>O 189</TD><TD class=datacell>17.5 </TD><TD class=datacell>40/86</TD><TD class=datacell>36/93</TD><TD class=datacell>54-45</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>02/21/07</TD><TD class=datacell>TOR 85 - CLE 86</TD><TD class=datacell>CLE 4.0</TD><TD class=datacell>U 198</TD><TD class=datacell>5.0 </TD><TD class=datacell>33/78</TD><TD class=datacell>36/83</TD><TD class=datacell>42-47</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>12/06/06</TD><TD class=datacell>CLE 95 - TOR 91</TD><TD class=datacell>TOR 8.0</TD><TD class=datacell>U 195.5</TD><TD class=datacell>4.0 </TD><TD class=datacell>38/83</TD><TD class=datacell>39/85</TD><TD class=datacell>49-37</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>11/22/06</TD><TD class=datacell>TOR 95 - CLE 87</TD><TD class=datacell>TOR 2</TD><TD class=datacell>U 200</TD><TD class=datacell>10.0 </TD><TD class=datacell>32/70</TD><TD class=datacell>37/94</TD><TD class=datacell>41-46</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>03/08/06</TD><TD class=datacell>TOR 97 - CLE 98</TD><TD class=datacell>CLE 1.5</TD><TD class=datacell>U 199</TD><TD class=datacell>2.5 </TD><TD class=datacell>35/80</TD><TD class=datacell>36/79</TD><TD class=datacell>43-41</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>03/07/06</TD><TD class=datacell>CLE 106 - TOR 99</TD><TD class=datacell>CLE -5.5</TD><TD class=datacell>O 197.5</TD><TD class=datacell>1.5 </TD><TD class=datacell>38/78</TD><TD class=datacell>37/75</TD><TD class=datacell>42-36</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Made this game -10/-10.5 and wanted to see if it got steamed like the recent Cavs game have and it really hasnt seeing a 1 pt bump to 12 so that hopefully is a good sign as well . Also like CLE 1st game in 4 of 5 spot ...

GL:cheers:
 
Thanx guys and thank you Nut for the added insight...Always appreciated...

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 27-20, +$1512
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 149-150-5
#1 picks: 23-19

Totals: 157-140-6
#1 picks: 19-22-1
=====================================

Day 43:

Running very late suddenly...If I see a 2H bet I like, I'll post it...If I feel like betting something else, I will...A bit rushed right now...A lot of chart-plays tonight, though...

Sides:

#1 Tor +12
#2 Min +5
#3 SA -1.5
#4 Orl +5.5
#5 Det -5
#6 Atl +4
#7 Milw +6.5
#8 Sac +11.5
#9 NY +7.5

Totals:

#1 NY ov 216
#2 Milw ov 205.5
#3 Det un 193.5
#4 Tor un 196.5
#5 SA un 191
#6 Orl ov 187.5
#7 Sac un 212
#8 Atl ov 191
#9 Min un 197

BET already posted...

GL... <!-- / message -->

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================
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clover.gif
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Random thoughts:

Gotta give the Cavs some props...First team in NBA history to beat 9 straight opponents by 12 or more points...First team in NBA history to do so...The line was 12 (or 12.5) last night...So before the game last night against the Raptors, I had trends on my side, odds on my side, a chart-play on my side and NBA f*cking history on my side, yet CLE still won easily...It happens...Ends a nice 9-2 run I had my last 11 bets, but tomorrow is another day, it is onwards and hopefully upwards...

Since CLE plays again tonight at Philly, we will look at their current C9 cover streak...

According to my database that goes back to the 1991-92 season, CLE is the 119th team to get to C7...

Out of the previous 118 teams that got to a C7, 52 made it to a C8...
Out of the previous 52 teams that got to a C8, 23 made it to a C9...
Out of the previous 23 teams that got to a C9, 9 made it to a C10...
Out of the previous 9 teams that got to a C10, 4 made it to a C11...
Out of the previous 4 teams that got to a C11, 2 made it to a C12...
Out of the previous 2 teams that got to a C12, 1 made it to a C13...
And that team did not make it to a C14...

Cleveland now goes for a C10...

A home-and-Home with Philly, starting tonight at Philly...I personally don't believe Cleveland will cover both of these games...Home and Homes are tough to sweep, and the lines CLE will have to cover here will make it that much tougher...

But in all honesty, it's going to be hard to bet against CLE right now...I mean, their last 8 wins are all against sub .500 teams, but hey, they destroyed these teams...Destroyed them...

Anyway...

Ind/Tor -- Nobody from this pathetic Raptors team played big minutes last night...Raps are 3-0 ATS in back-enders this year...Indy 1-2 ATS when they have rest and their opponents do not...TOR Over 4 of their last 5 and Indy Over 5 of their last 6...

NY/NJ -- D'Antoni only played 7 last night and the starters all played heavy minutes...Knicks Under 5 straight and 6 of 7 now...Nets Under 3 straight and 4 of 5...Total at 217...Damn, I kinda want to play the Over, but 2-freaking-17...Dunno...

Cle/Phi -- no line as we wait for Elton Brand's status...I will pick Philly here but don't know if I have the balls to bet them and fade CLE yet again...But I wonder if this the classic "brewers7 was against Cleveland one game too early" spot and Philly is indeed the play...Chart-play to the Over here for CLE as they had an Under6 streak snapped with an Over last night...Philly 6-1-3 tothe Under though, their last 10 in regulation...All 3 games last season between these two team went Under...

Memp/OKC -- Tough call for me here...OKC at 2-20 and MEMP was one of their wins, so they have a team here they know they can beat, so I expect them to up for this one...Revenge spot for MEMP though, as they lost to OKC at Home 11 days ago...OKC had covered 5 straight and 7 of 8 before losing to GS last time out...These 2 teams went Over their first meeting and MEMP 5-1-1 to the Over thier last 7 while OKC 4-2 to the Over their last 6...

CHAR/NO -- At first blush, this line looks high to me...But the schedule-makers have given the Hornets a nice stretch here with lots o rest and very few games (just 2 games the last 12 days -- almost unheard of)...One thing about young teams and Larry Brown teams is that they will fight right to the end of the game...They won't quit...So are the Hornets really 12 points better now that CHAR is actually 5-4 SU their last 9 games?...Without Wallace, maybe...But I am a DOG player in the NBA and I'll never lay this many points with the Hornets against a scrappy Bobcats team, even without Gerald Wallace...CHAR Over 4 of their last 5 and NO 3-0-1 to the Over their last 4...

Atl/SA -- Big let-down spot here for the Spurs...They have been a cover machine, going 10-3 ATS their last 13...SA just 1-3 ATS in back-enders this season while ATL is 3-3 ATS in this spot...ATL 4-0-2 to the Under their last 6...

Min/Den -- Minny ends a NC7 with a Cover for their new coach (making that trend 3-1 ATS this season)...Now the T'Wolves have to deal with the Nuggets who have 3 days rest...3rd meeting between these 2 already...DEN won both, 1-1 ATS, not covering at Home...Chart-play for Minny here and they are getting double-digits...DEN 1-2 ATS when they rest and their opponent does not...

Milw/GS -- no line...Well, after the pace at PHOE last night and 235 points going up in that game, I would expect a 222 here from Vegas when the total comes out...GS Under their last 2...MILW Under 5 of 8 in back-enders this season...Warriors may need Jackson & Maggette to get this Over though...MILW 5-3 ATS in back-enders...

Phoe/LAL -- no line...Shaq played last night so one would think he will sit this one out tonight since he doesn't play back-to-backs...PHOE Over 7 straight now...Lakers Over 7 of 9...LAL 3-1 to the Under in back-enders while PHOE is 6-0 to the Over in back-enders...
<!-- / message -->
 
================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 27-21, +$1237
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 154-154-5
#1 picks: 23-20

Totals: 160-146-7
#1 picks: 19-23-1
=====================================

Day 44:

Totals ice, ice cold right now and Sides (14-4 with all picks before last night and 5-4 last night) hot...LAL 4-0 ATS in back-enders...Chart-play for Minny and the Minny Under (as DEN had an Over-7 snapped)...Chart-play also for the CLE Over as their Under-6 snapped...

Debating a play right now...Might be a 1Q Over, but I haven't decided...Nothing jumping off the page and I am turning gutless to against CLE again...I almost hope they cover because I will definitely fade them against Philly on the back-end of this home-and-home on FRI with Philly getting double-digits...

Sides:

#1 LAL -12.5
#2 NY +8
#3 Phi +6.5
#4 Tor -3
#5 Char +12.5
#6 Atl +6
#7 Min +12.5
#8 Memp -2
#9 Milw +1

Totals:

#1 NY ov 214
#2 Phi ov 186.5
#3 Milw ov 220
#4 Min un 207.5
#5 Atl un 189
#6 Char un 185.5
#7 Memp ov 201
#8 Tor ov 210
#9 LAL un 216

No BETs yet...

GL... <!-- / message -->

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================
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Really thinking this Lakers game will be a slaughter...2 bets for now...

BET:

Level 1 -- Minnesota Timberwolves +12.5, laying $250 to win $250 -- No Kenyon Martin and Melo will have limite minutes...Chart-play for Minny after covering last night to snap the NC7...Chart-play stronger when the team breaks the NC streak with a loss that covered, rather than a win that covered...New coach McHale looking for that first win, so this tream will be giving effort tonight...

Level 1 -- Minnesota/Denver Under 208.5, laying $252.50 to win $250 -- These 2 teams have net twice already and both stayed Under this number...The game at Denver was a 174 if I remember correctly...Again, no K'Mart and Melo may be limited...Minny 4-1 to the Under in back-enders this season...Again, a chart-play to the Under here as DEN went Under last time out after 7 straight Overs...I could be wrong, of course, but I really hope I don't get swept here with 2 chart-plays like this, not to mention the other factors in my favor, IMO...
 
================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 28-22, +$1234.50
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 158-158-6
#1 picks: 23-21

Totals: 164-151-7
#1 picks: 20-23-1
=====================================

Day 45:

Totals had their 4th straight losing night, but the #1 Total did win...Work getting busier, so time may be more limited, but I do want to make money at this as it is still a hobby for me after doing it full-time for a few years...I don't like the board at all tonight, but if you held a gun to my head, I would take the Port/Utah game Over as it a chart-play that way for PORT...WASH looks tempting as Boston has NO tomorrow...WAS swept BOS last year in the regular season I think (goign from memory on that one)...I may have to start posting before I get to work, because now that the busy season is about to hit, once I get here, time is becoming much more limited...

No bets unless a 2H play presents itself...And I am hoping this weekend presents some good opportunities...

Sides:

#1 Was +10
#2 Port +2.5
#3 Char +13

Totals:

#1 Port ov 194
#2 Was ov 196
#3 Char un 191

GL... <!-- / message -->

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================
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<!-- / message -->
 
================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 28-22, +$1234.50
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 159-160-6
#1 picks: 23-22

Totals: 166-152-7
#1 picks: 20-24-1
=====================================

Day 46:

Getting busier for me, but I will continue write-ups whenever I can...sy season is about to hit, once I get here, time is becoming much more limited...Like one play...hate to go against CLE, but...

Sides:

#1 Phi +10.5
#2 NO +6.5
#3 Min +8
#4 Det -6
#5 Memp +2
#6 LAC +8.5
#7 LAL -16.5
#8 Tor +2.5
#9 Atl +2.5
#10 Phoe -1.5
#11 GS +1.5

Totals:

#1 Phoe ov 209.5
#2 Memp ov 199.5
#3 Det ov 200#4 Tor ov 205
#5 Phi ov 189.5
#6 Atl ov 193
#7 NO un 189
#8 LAC un 189
#9 Min ov 192.5
#10 LAL un 215
#11 GS un 215

BET:

Level 1 -- Philadelphia 76ers +10, laying $250 to win $272.50 -- Hate to go against a C10, but the Cavs cannot cover forever...This is the back-end of a Home-and-Home and where is the motivation here for CLE compared to Philly?...CLE just beat them at Philly...The Sixers might think they "had them" last game, but the Cavs outscored them by 17 in the 3Q to pull away a bit...Philly still got back in it in the 4Q, making it a 2-possession game...The Sixers have been incredibly flaky, losing 5 straight Home games, but they have actually won their last 2 road games...Only 7 teams since 1991-92 have gone beyonf a C10, which doesn't really anything for this particular instance, but I like taking teams who lost the first of a home-and-home series, especially gettign double-digits...

GL... <!-- / message -->

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================
clover.gif
clover.gif
clover.gif
clover.gif
clover.gif
clover.gif
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Had to bet these now...Almost made them all Level 2 plays, but man, that would be a lot on the line for basically betting one total one way...Love these though...Line going up...

BET:

Level 1 -- Golden State/Denver over 58.5, 1Q, laying $275 to win $250
Level 1 -- Golden State/Denver over 116.5, 1H, laying $275 to win $250
Level 1 -- Golden State/Denver over 228.5, laying $267.50 to win $250 -- Hate to lay juice, but I like these plays...Don Nelson pretty much said last night that he is "opening up the offense more", as if it had to be opened much more than it was, but he said "he wants to create space for his players to make plays", so this tells me that since the GS season is in the sh*tter, he is going to let these guys "have fun" at least, on offense andto hell with the defense right now as the Warriors are already conceding that this is a re-building year and there will be no postseason...The pace against HOU last night was ridiculous (195 shots and 57 FTs -- INSANE)...And now we have Denver who has been putting up points with 8 Overs i their last 9 games...GS on a back-ender and remember that game where they were on a back-ender against the Knicks at MSG?...There was absolutely no defense played in that one...Might be the same here and I also think Denver will blow them out, so I may have a play there or just play the Denver team total Over, too...Over me, here, all day long, expect 240+...

GL... <!-- / message -->
 
do you happen to have the numbers of the home team ATS when both teams playing their 4/5? thanks in advanced if you can
 
SF_capper said:
do you happen to have the numbers of the home team ATS when both teams playing their 4/5? thanks in advanced if you can
Click to expand...

This year?...

Tonight is the first occurence...

Generally, the Away team covers this from memory, but I guess I should run the numbers to make sure...I just remember some seasons where the Away team covered this spot a lot...
 
BET:

Level 1 -- New York/Sacramento over 54.5, 1Q, laying $275 to win $250 -- I like this one, too...Putting my 1Q bet streak on the line today, apparently...I am considering the 1H and game lines, too, but do I want to be laying out 6 units on basically 2 totals?...Well, I like them both a lot...I looked at SAC last season vs. D'Antoni's PHOE team in the 1Q...The totals were 53, 85, 60 & 71 and the 85 was the only game SAC was on a back-ender...Yes, 85 in the 1Q, NOT 1H...SAC and NY have enough 1Q Overs this season to make this a play...

GL... <!-- / message -->

<!-- / message -->
 
================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 28-22, +$1234.50
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 163-167-6
#1 picks: 23-23

Totals: 169-159-8
#1 picks: 21-24-1
=====================================

Day 47:

Totals have had 5 losing days he last 6 and only winning day was a 2-1 day THUR...#1 Sides ice cold again, losing 4 straight...#1 plays last year about 7 weeks in were up 30 to 40 units (closer to 40), while this year, down about 4 or 5...Incredibly slow start and maybe it'll be "slow" all year for me, who knows...I may have to really pick my spots this season...I do know I need to make better betting decisions as it is against my nature to bet against a team on a long streak, I generally wait for the long streak to end and then fade them for a spell...But I went against CLE twice this week due to the situatonal spots and paid for it...1-3 week after a 9-2 stretch...Somehow, through all this, I am up on the year...I missed that Tor/NJ Over 2H last night as the criteria was just about met in every instance and the pace was fine in the 1H to get that 2H Over...

I like 7-to-10 plays tonight a lot (top 5 sides and top 5 totals), but man, I just cannot bet 10 games with as cold as I have been, although there is always a break-out day when I am this cold and I wonder if tonight is the break-out night or if tonight will be another bad one...

NJ is a simple "automatic" play on a team that shot less than 33% the game before (like SAC did the game before they beat LAL as 11.5 Dogs)...

Philly has the new coach angle (3-1 ATS this season)...

Cle has the 4 of 5 vs. another 4 of 5 and the Away team generally covers this, but CLE on this long Cover streak taking all the value away from this one...

Denver should just mangle GS tonight...

Since I am cold this week, I am only betting plays till further notice that jump off the page at me and the two I bet met that criteria...

I should be home in time tonight to be looking at 2H plays...

Sides:

#1 NJ +4.5
#2 Phi -5.5
#3 Orl +5.5
#4 Cle -4
#5 Den -15.5
#6 Hou -4
#7 Char +1
#8 OKC +12.5
#9 Ind +4.5
#10 Sac -1

Totals:

#1 Den ov 229.5
#2 Sac ov 218.5
#3 Cle un 187.5
#4 Phi ov 195.5
#5 Char un 184
#6 NJ ov 204.5
#7 Ind ov 205
#8 Orl un 200
#9 Hou un 191
#10 OKC ov 205

BETs already posted...Debating others...

GL... <!-- / message -->

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================
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clover.gif
clover.gif
clover.gif
clover.gif
clover.gif


 
brewers7 said:
Had to bet these now...Almost made them all Level 2 plays, but man, that would be a lot on the line for basically betting one total one way...Love these though...Line going up...

BET:

Level 1 -- Golden State/Denver over 58.5, 1Q, laying $275 to win $250
Level 1 -- Golden State/Denver over 116.5, 1H, laying $275 to win $250
Level 1 -- Golden State/Denver over 228.5, laying $267.50 to win $250 -- Hate to lay juice, but I like these plays...Don Nelson pretty much said last night that he is "opening up the offense more", as if it had to be opened much more than it was, but he said "he wants to create space for his players to make plays", so this tells me that since the GS season is in the sh*tter, he is going to let these guys "have fun" at least, on offense andto hell with the defense right now as the Warriors are already conceding that this is a re-building year and there will be no postseason...The pace against HOU last night was ridiculous (195 shots and 57 FTs -- INSANE)...And now we have Denver who has been putting up points with 8 Overs i their last 9 games...GS on a back-ender and remember that game where they were on a back-ender against the Knicks at MSG?...There was absolutely no defense played in that one...Might be the same here and I also think Denver will blow them out, so I may have a play there or just play the Denver team total Over, too...Over me, here, all day long, expect 240+...

GL... <!-- / message -->
Click to expand...


I tailed ya here...brutal to lose all 3 by a half a point...whats the odds of that??? Keep up the good work brewer really enjoy your threads:tiphat:
 
================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 29-26, +$417
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 167-173-6
#1 picks: 23-24

Totals: 174-164-8
#1 picks: 21-25-1
=====================================

Day 48:

"That's gambling"...

I want to thank everyone for the well-wishes after that first last night (losing 3 different totals bets on the same game by 1/2 a point each, 1Q, 1H and Game), something that will probably never happen to me again in this lifetime...

Surprisingly, it doesn't bother me as much as I thought it would...I had a long day at work, and fell asleep at half-time of the GS/Den game, so I missed the final dagger, a third half-point loss in the same game...The ironic thing was that I was on the Team totals page at Olympic about to make my first-ever Team total bet (Over on Denver, TT was 122.5), and at the last second, I chickened out and THAT would have been a half-point winner...Too funny...Funny faux pas, though, not funny haha, for sure...

But to think though, that if Stephen Jackson (a very good FT shooter) didn't miss that one FT in the 1Q, I would have won ALL 3 bets...Wow, good thing I have an iron-cast stomach...If I was still doing this "professionally" like I did for 3.5 years (where this was my only income -- and believe me, you'd BETTER have an iron-cast stomach when your bills depend on winning games like this), I'd undoubtedly be very, very p*ssed, but since betting games has been back to "hobby" status the last 2 seasons, I think that is why I am more or less just taking it in stride a bit because, yeah, it's a bit of a "bad beat" for sure, but I realize that hey, it's gambling and stuff like this happens a lot during the course of the season...The trick is to bounce back and hope these things even out over the course of the season...

In reality, I consider myself lucky to even be at EVEN on this horrible season right now, even after last night...Yes, last night is a 6-unit swing because of 1 missed FT, but even with that, even with my #1 sides and #1 totals BOTH being at sub .500 at the same time for the first time this season and even with some questionable betting decisions (to honestly criticize myself, going against on-going streaks, which I rarely do), I actually am still somehow at EVEN on the year...I am not even sure how when I look at my record...I really don't...#1 Sides have lost 5 straight now (2nd time in the last 17 days) and they are my pride and joy...Once, I went through an entire NBA regular season and did NOT lose 5 in a row on my #1 sides...Entire season...That would have been a huge winning bonanza if I would have martingaled those #1 sides...

I have often compared the start of this season to the start of the 2003-04 NBA season for me, the last time I did not explode right of the gate...And previous to 2003-04, all my seasons were like 2003-04, slow the first 6 weeks, then hot from mid-DEC through early March, give-or-take, with some exceptions...So I went back and examined my #1 sides and totals from 2003-04...

My NBA Sides were terrible until January 29th...Started 38-51-2...But on January 29, I had a streak of 10 wins in a row and I had my first-ever Level 3 play on FEB 5th, and that was my first-ever post on any Internet forum (the old wagerline forum)...Philly -3 over the Lakers...A great situational spot...I told everyone to jump on Philly...But it was my first post ever, so who would believe me, in retrospect?...Philly won by 23 and it was my 8th straight #1 sides winner...My #1 sides went 50-23 after that 38-51-2 start...My #1 totals started the year 49-32-1, before tanking when my Sides got hot...The following season, my #1 totals started the season 22-6 and 26-7 and remained hot through Week 16, before collapsing the final 8 weeks...

So with this bad start with BOTH the #1 sides & totals, I am more or less in uncharted waters...Started out scorching hot last year in both categories then leveled off...Same the year before that...Maybe this year I won't heat up...Could happen...

My records are updated above...I'll have picks posted before the Toronto game starts...My first-blush look at the board tells me I like nothing as nothing jumps out, so probably no bets, but I'll troll around hoping for a 2H bet...

I may greatly reduce the number of bets for a spell and start doing Level 2 bets, which means I'll be very selective...Haven't decided for sure...Even though this is a hobby for me now, I want to make some coin at this hobby, so I'll be making adjustments in an effort to do so...Because man, I hate to lose...

NO BETS...

GL... <!-- / message -->

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================
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I feel for ya brewers, it happened to me several times until i decided to buy half a point every time i bet a total, then if you loose you loose but you know you couldn't avoid that

best of luck next time and much respect for your work again:shake:
 
Tempted to bet Memphis, but will pass and look at 2H lines today...For tracking purposes:

Sides:

#1 Memp +1.5
#2 Min +15.5
#3 Tor +2
#4 OKC +16.5

Totals:

#1 Memp un 193.5
#2 Min ov 209.5
#3 OKC ov 196.5
#4 Tor un 194.5 <!-- / message -->
 
Thanx guys, but in all seriousness, tough losses happen during the course of the season and in this particular instance, for whatever reason, it didn't bother me that much and in fact, I forgot to tell this part of the story, but I was tired and going to bed at halftime of that GS/Den game, so I looked at the halftime and almost decided to chase those two 1/2 point losses with a Leval 1 play on the 2H line, which was 112.5...I considered it for about 30 seconds...Didn't do it because I already had the bet on the game line...had I bet the 2H Over 112.5, I would have lost by, yes, you guessed it, 1/2 a point as the 2H was 112...Wow...I should have bet it just to have something historic to look back on years from now, losing 4 totals in the same game by 1/2 a point (1Q, 1H, 2H, Game), but I guess 3 was enough...

I already bet two 1Q lines tonight...Am looking at some game-line possibilities...

BET:

Level 1 -- New York/Phoenix over 57.5, 1Q, laying $275 to win $250 -- Phoenix has gone Over 9 straight games and 7 of 9 in the 1Q...NY always comes out fast (scoring 43 themselves in a 64-point 1Q last tie out at SAC)...I expect a wild and crazy 1Q as PHOE getting J-Rich means they are looking to score more and work a faster pace, IMO, as they got rid of their best defender in Bell...I already know the pace will be there for an Over in the 1Q, just need the shots to fall...

Level 1 -- Orlando/Golden State over 56, 1Q, laying $275 to win $250 -- Same thing here...I already know the pace will be here for an Over in the 1Q, I just need shots to fall...I have been fairly selective with my 1Q Overs since Week 1, where i had a close-call winner, taking only the games where I know the pace is greatly in my favor...ORL should get sucked in to the GS pace and without Howard, I cannot see them playing too many half-court sets...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...
<!-- / message -->
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Love those 1st quarter plays. If the Magic can hit 61 against the Suns with Howard and Lopez out there trying to run they can surely go over 56 against the Warriors. Gortat should have two fouls in the first 4 minutes which will really open things up.

Will be joining ya for both of them. BOL tonight.
 
Brew I just wanted to give you kudos for your 2H overs/favorites strategy and the time you put into that thing. Very insightful and very helpful tips bro.
 
Thanx folks and BOL with all of your action...

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 29-26, +$417
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 170-174-6
#1 picks: 24-24

Totals: 177-165-8
#1 picks: 22-25-1
=====================================

Day 49:

I like several tonight...So tonight may be a gauge to see if I am still seeing it ok as I went 3-1 last night in both sides and totals and won both 31 plays...I have a lot of opinions, too, but time is short, so i really cannot share much...

Heat 0-4 ATS in back-enders and SAC has a new coach and that spot is 4-1 ATS this season...Utah has been slowing the pace down a lot lately and i epect the same tonight for an Under there...CHAR and the under look tempting, too...ORL line finally moving upwards which makes this a no-play for me but I would never bet ORL in this spot as it may win tonight, but this spot loses more than it wins over the long-haul...

Thinking of betting a few, but I may pass and then regret it later..

Sides:

#1 Sac -4
#2 Milw +3.5
#3 Char +8.5
#4 Den +1.5
#5 Utah +9.5
#6 GS +3.5
#7 NY +8.5
#8 Tor -4.5
#9 Ind +1

Totals:

#1 Utah un 191
#2 GS ov 221
#3 NY ov 225
#4 Char un 185
#5 Den un 209.5
#6 Tor ov 203
#7 Milw un 197
#8 Sac ov 200
#9 Ind ov 212

BETS posted...

GL... <!-- / message -->

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================
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