NBA 2008-09, Week 5 thread...

[brewers7]

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 16-14, +$90
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 96-104-4
#1 picks: 16-12

Totals: 110-92-2
#1 picks: 11-17
=====================================

Day 29:

Running late becoming a theme but I like one total for sure, maybe more, but had to bet this one before the line goes up any more...

Will post picks and a link to my databse for this season shortly...

BET:

Level 1 -- Golden State/Washington over 207.5, laying $260 to win $250 -- I blinked and it went from 207 to 207.5 after going down all day...Ticked off I missed the 207 by minutes, but another busy day...These 2 teams have flown Over 3 straight and 5 of 6 h2h...WAS has gone Over 2 straight now and are showing signs of Overs, so hopefully the new coach won't effect where these WAS totals have gone the last 2 times out...I doubt it...A new brand coach cannot do much in 2 days...All he can really do is let these guys go out and play, and they should get sucked into the GS pace...GS way under last time out, but Philly has a good defense and can cover the perimeter and not allow wiide open shots...GS has had one total below 200 this year (before the 170 last time out at Philly) and it was a 169 against MEMP at MEMP and the next time out GS put up a 212 total vs. Denver...I look for the Warriors to bounce back again from a horrid shooting performance and put up points tonight and the Wiz shouldn't have too much of a problem matching those points...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

 

[Trueblue]

wrong forum, but i agree with the play... GSW at home is nothing short of electric against bad defenses.

 

[brewers7]

Damn...

If a moderator can move this, I'd appreciate it...Thanx...
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Here is the link to my database for the 2008-09 season, first 4 weeks...

Database Link

Sides:

#1 OKC +10
#2 NJ +13.5
#3 Dal -8
#4 Was +2
#5 Cle -8

Totals:

#1 Was ov 207.5
#2 OKC un 201.5
#3 NJ ov 208.5
#4 Cle ov 212
#5 Dal un 200.5

Doubt if I'll bet anything else unless I see a 2H play that's worth it...OKC is a "chart-play", but I just cannot bet a 1-win team right now...Refuse to do it... <!-- / message -->

 

[Fondybadger]

Good luck

 

[O-State]

Waiting on a Level 3 Bet

 

[brewers7]

Waiting on a Level 3 Bet

They usually don't happen till January...Has to be a perfect spot...Level 2 bets will become more regular once I start winning consistently, if I start winning consistently...

 

[brewers7]

Feel like I am gaining some confidence here lately...Had I been hot, yesterday's play would have been a Level 2 play or I would have played the 1Q, 1H and Game total all Over at Level 1 and won all 3 of those...

Here is a link to my paper charts (updated daily) for the 1st 4 weeks:

Paper Charts

These charts have been my Bible for about 18 seasons...Basically, you have an 8-week snap-shot of the NBA (ATS-wise) on one piece of paper and another 8-week snap-shot (totals-wise) on another sheet of paper...Lot of info to access easily at a glance...On the Sides sheet, the red checkmark means that team is playing an opponent who is on the back-end of a back-to-back...A red "N" means both teams are on back-enders...The red numbers are the days rest for their opponents...It is very easy to see distinct patterns develop over the course of the season...Plus, you can see at a glance that the Houston Rockets are 4-0 ATS on the back-end of back-to-backs and you can see very quickly that Milwaukee is 2-0 ATS on their 4th game in 5 nights...A wealth of current info, all on a sheet of paper...A source of finding many winners for me for many years...

I also track the success (or lack thereof) of my picks and believe this is important because you can see for yourself that you do in fact have losing streaks during the course of the year and it's important to see those losing streaks so you don't get too over-confident and think about doing stuff like using a martingale betting system on your picks because you think it is "impossible" to lose more than 5 or 6 in a row...

Anyway...
<!-- / message -->

 

[brewers7]

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 17-14, +$340
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 99-106-4
#1 picks: 17-12

Totals: 114-93-2
#1 picks: 12-17
=====================================

Day 30:

I really thought I was going to be betting a lot more games this year, and maybe I will in the near future if I heat up, but I am quickly reverting back to last year here for a brief spell and taking it easy...Nothing jumping out at me tonight except for the Detroit Pistons, who I think will kill the Knicks tonight...In the past, I would never pass on a 13-game slate, but i did last year for the first time (basically due to time constraints) and although I really don't feel that rushed today, the only play I would even consider betting tonight is the Pistons, and man, I just hate laying 13 points in the NBA...But I think Detroit beats them by 20+...If I see a good 2H bet, I'll go for it...There are 11 games FRI and 11 games SAT and I hope to see some good situational spots on Saturday, so hopefully I'll have a few good plays...#1 totals now 11-5 after that 1-12 start...No surprise as I should be betting them blind as I am reverting back to the mean and making the steady climb back to .500 and hopefully beyond...

NO BETS:

Sides:

#1 Det -13
#2 Char +8
#3 Memp +9.5
#4 OKC +15.5
#5 LAC +4
#6 Phi -5
#7 Sac -3
#8 Bos -12
#9 Min +4
#10 Chi +7.5
#11 Mia +7.5
#12 Ind +8
#13 Atl -7

Totals:

#1 LAC un 197.5
#2 Memp un 193.5
#3 Phi un 190.5
#4 Mia un 192
#5 Ind un 193
#6 Sac ov 209.5
#7 OKC ov 199.5
#8 Atl ov 194
#9 Min ov 195.5
#10 Chi ov 190.5
#11 Det un 208.5
#12 Bos un 205
#13 Char ov 186

GL...

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

 

[SportsNut]

Great work and appreciate all the time and effort . In case I miss you tmrw then have Happy Thanksgiving .

On the hoops side of things real hard for me to get overly interested in this card also . I hate having a ton of games and worse a ton of games with injuries . Might just wait till later tonight to get involved. Hard to not like DET after they were embarrassed and NYK looks out of sorts at the moment continually playing undermanned. Their defense is real bad at times and the lack of sie can destroy them vs good teams with solid bigs . NY can score but the offense isnt polished . Which leads to droughts and poor shot selection . Further hurting them vs strong front lines but agree that laying -13 in the NBA is scary . Would like to see the ATS record of DD favs so far .

havent looked at much . Good Luck if you play...:cheers:

 

[brewers7]

Thanx NUT and Happy Thanksgiving to you and everyone here...

but agree that laying -13 in the NBA is scary.

I didn't see the ending at Detroit, but DET up 22 with about 2:25 left and it obviously came down to the last possession somehow for the cover, which is why I hate laying 13, although DET did cover...

Would like to see the ATS record of DD favs so far .

You asked for it, you got it...

Coming into Wednesday, there were 29 games with DD FAVs on the closing line and the DOGs are 15-14 ATS...

Interesting breakdown though, DOGs of 12 or more points are 10-3 ATS coming into WED, while the 10 to 11.5 range sees an 11-5 ATS mark for the FAVs...

 

[brewers7]

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 17-14, +$340
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 103-115-4
#1 picks: 18-12

Totals: 121-99-2
#1 picks: 12-18
=====================================

Day 31:

Happy Thanksgiving...

Was still may be on a bit of a "honeymoon phase" with their new coach, so I think they come out with a lot of energy again...ORL rose up yesterday without Nelson, but may feel the effects of him missing tonight...I like WAS here...I also like DEN under as they are 3-0 to the Under this season on the back-end of back-to-backs...It was mentioned during last night's game that George Karl spent 60% of practice last season working on offense and 40% of the practice time working on defense...This year, Karl is spending 70% of practice time working on defense and 30% on offense...Results have showed that effort as DEN is 9-6 to the Under in regulation time this season...

NO BETS:

Sides:

#1 Was +3
#2 Den -1

Totals:

#1 Den un 196
#2 Was ov 198

GL...

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

 

[OSO$]

hmmm surprised to see you on denver here as the hornets matchup well against this team and IMO they have them overmatched

 

[brewers7]

Well, "rumors" are flying around (ESPN, Page 2) that New Orleans is starting to tune out Byron Scott (same thing that happened in NJ when he was there), which "explains" why this team may be under-achieving...

Whether it's true or not, who the f*ck knows, could just be a sportswriter making a pretty big leap, but we'll see...Tonight is a decent test, because this is a good spot for the Hornets since Denver played last night...

 

[OSO$]

yeah definitely heard about the rumors, didn't know it was the team, only informed about cp3 and byron scott not on the same page. As far as tonight goes, really liking the hornets was just surprised to see you on denver. I was debatable on Magic/Wizards game but I can't ignore what has been said. Magic should win this game by 10 and would be interested if you're even considering a play in the NBA tonight. Either way, thanks again for the write-ups and happy Thanksgiving.

 

[JPicks]

Thanks for the daily thread brewers. Always appreciate seeing your thoughts. As far as the ESPN article I can't really shrug it off like most ESPN garbage. Think Bill Simmons has a pretty good take on the league typically. BOL this weekend and Happy Thanksgiving.

 

[brewers7]

Thanx folks...

Friday's action:

I am not going to take a chance on these lines moving against me, so 2 early bets for Friday (both played at MatchBook...

BETS:

Level 1 -- Golden State/Cleveland over 215, laying $255 to win $250 -- Not sure if this total will move upwards or downwards and I don't really care...CLE has gone Over 8 of the last 11 and the 3 Unders weren't under by much (last time out, the total was under by 1/2 a point vs. OKC, because it was a blow-out, really)...Their other 2 Unders were under by less than 7 points...The pace for GS games has been frenetic lately, as they have gone Over 7 of their last 8...If CLE can have a 220 vs. NY, then 220+ should not be an issue vs. GS...It's not hard to get sucked into the GS pace...Just look at the Boston game, where the vaunted BOS defense played a 230 last time out vs. the Warriors...

Level 1 -- Philadelphia 76ers +9, laying $262.50 to win $250 -- If I would guess, I'd say this may come down to 8.5, we'll see...When the Sixers went on their 2-month tear last season, going 21-7 from FEB 5 thru APR 4, they did have a win at BOS during that stretch as 9-point DOGs on 3/24/08, a 95-90 victory...The Sixers have been very inconsistent, to say the least, this season, but after bad losses to CHAR and ORL, I would hope this team will rise up here in this spot and give the Celtics a battle...Philly certainly does not have a single victory on the season worth bragging about, but as I have said, in the NBA, teams aren't as good or as bad as their last game (or 2)...Philly is looking to renew this rivalry, and tonight would be a good night to do just that and take this game down to the wire...This game should be an Under, too, but I think I'll pass on that one...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...

 

[O-State]

Baron Davis did not like Bryon Scott. Now he doesn't like Dunleavy

Said he would have a banner at UCLA if they had a coach.

 

[brewers7]

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 17-14, +$340
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 103-117-4
#1 picks: 18-13

Totals: 121-101-2
#1 picks: 12-19
=====================================

Day 32:

I have not done wll this year with a 2 or 3-game board thus far...I can remember many years where I had tons of success with a short board, but not this year...0-4 last night, but a bet was not even considered with those games...Only other game I am considering is Phi/Bos under, but will probably pass...Hoping for some good situational spots tomorrow...

Sides:

#1 Phi +9
#2 OKC +2
#3 Mia +8
#4 Char +7.5
#5 Tor -5.5
#6 Dal +11
#7 Port -5
#8 GS +11.5
#9 Sac +11
#10 Memp +9.5
#11 Det -9

Totals:

#1 GS ov 215
#2 Phi un 186.5
#3 Det un 190
#4 OKC ov 193.5
#5 Sac ov 210
#6 Tor un 201
#7 Memp ov 184.5
#8 Port un 187.5
#9 Dal ov 205
#10 Mia ov 200
#11 Char un 189.5

BETS (made at 11:30 last night and posted then):

Level 1 -- Golden State/Cleveland over 215, laying $255 to win $250 -- Not sure if this total will move upwards or downwards and I don't really care...CLE has gone Over 8 of the last 11 and the 3 Unders weren't under by much (last time out, the total was under by 1/2 a point vs. OKC, because it was a blow-out, really)...Their other 2 Unders were under by less than 7 points...The pace for GS games has been frenetic lately, as they have gone Over 7 of their last 8...If CLE can have a 220 vs. NY, then 220+ should not be an issue vs. GS...It's not hard to get sucked into the GS pace...Just look at the Boston game, where the vaunted BOS defense played a 230 last time out vs. the Warriors...

Level 1 -- Philadelphia 76ers +9, laying $262.50 to win $250 -- If I would guess, I'd say this may come down to 8.5, we'll see...When the Sixers went on their 2-month tear last season, going 21-7 from FEB 5 thru APR 4, they did have a win at BOS during that stretch as 9-point DOGs on 3/24/08, a 95-90 victory...The Sixers have been very inconsistent, to say the least, this season, but after bad losses to CHAR and ORL, I would hope this team will rise up here in this spot and give the Celtics a battle...Philly certainly does not have a single victory on the season worth bragging about, but as I have said, in the NBA, teams aren't as good or as bad as their last game (or 2)...Philly is looking to renew this rivalry, and tonight would be a good night to do just that and take this game down to the wire...This game should be an Under, too, but I think I'll pass on that one...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL... <!-- / message -->

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

 

[brewers7]

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 17-16, -$177.50
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 108-122-5
#1 picks: 18-14

Totals: 128-105-2
#1 picks: 12-20
=====================================

Day 33:

Only 8 points scored in the final 4:20 of the GS/Cle game last night...That killed the Over, as it missed (pushing for me by 6 points)...But still, it's my fault as I have had a lot of bad decisions...Not the Over on the game total, I'd play that every time as it looked fine with 4+ minutes to go...But I had capped the game as Over in the 1Q, Over in the 1H (both winners) and Under in the 4Q (another winner), but did not bet the 1Q or 1H Overs...2 years ago, for PHOE or GS totals, I often bet the 1Q, 1H and game total Over on the games i thought would fly Over...I haven't done that yet this year, even though I have been thinking about it constantly...Last night again, at the last second, I decided not to pull the trigger...Cost me 2 wins...I haven't lost a 1Q bet yet and in the games I bet the 1Q over, had I also bet the game and 1H over, I'd be 6-2 with those bets...Also, with game totals that I bet Over that I almost pulled the trigger on the 1Q and 1H Overs, I would have been 6-0 with those...An additional 12-2 to my record (and almost 10 units) would be helping me through this tough spell where I am 17-17 on the year (and down a little less than 3 units)...Still waiting to get over the hump...Hopefully it will happen this year, and IF it does happen at all, hopefully it'll be sooner rather than later...A bit frustrating right now, but this is only Day 33 of a 170-day regular season...If I do heat up, hopefully I'll be able to recognize when it's happening because you'll see a lot of Level 2 bets while I am riding the wave...

I passed on the SA/Hou Under...They have gone Under h2h 23 of their last 29 meetings...But I wonder about the pace of Rockets' games...Yes, they have been Under 6 of their 7 Home games (in regulation), but the pace last time out vs. Indy was quick...it's just that both teams shot very poorly, especially HOU, shooting 34% from the floor that game...Parker back for SA and Ginobili has been back and what if T-Mac does play?...

Season-high 5 plays tonight (4 of the bets at MatchBook)...

Sides:

#1 LAC -2
#2 Hou -3
#3 GS -2
#4 Ind +8
#5 NJ +8.5
#6 OKC +7.5
#7 Atl +1.5
#8 Den -4.5
#9 Cle -7
#10 Sac +4.5
#11 Char +8.5

Totals:

#1 GS ov 224.5
#2 Hou un 179.5
#3 Char iun 179.5
#4 Sac ov 207.5
#5 NJ ov 209
#6 Atl ov 200
#7 Ind un 202.5
#8 Den un 201
#9 OKC ov 198
#10 LAC ov 191
#11 Cle un 195

BETS:

Level 1 -- Golden State/New York over 224.5, laying $257.50 to win $250 (MatchBook) -- This line is still out there...This game has to be treated like a GS/PHOE game from the past 2 years...Ok, these two current teams don't have shooters as good as those teams had the past 2 seasons, but I am talking about pace of the game along with the amount of points scored...The last 6 games (and 7 of 8) between GS and the D'Antoni-run offense at PHOE all went Over the game and the 1Q totals...The last 6 game totals all were over 230...The pace will not be an issue here...We need these teams to hit close to 50% for the game and get to the FT line...GS and NY are 29th & 30th, respectively in points allowed (in a 30-team league) and GS is 24th and NY is 30th in FG% allowed...225 doesn't scare me one bit here...

Level 1 -- Golden State/New York over 57.5, 1Q, laying $275 to win $250 -- The last 6 games (and 7 of 8) between GS and the D'Antoni-run offense at PHOE all went Over the game and the 1Q totals...The last 6 1Q totals in those games all went Over 57.5, and 4 of those were over 70 in the 1Q...I am looking for 65 to 70 tonight in the 1Q...I am passing on the 1H bet (and may regret it), only because in those GS games against a D'Antoni-run PHOE offense, there were a lot of 2Q slow-downs, similar to last night when GS played at CLE...

Level 1 -- Golden State Warriors -2, laying $257.50 to win $250 -- Warriors playing their 4th game in 5 nights...GS wrapping up this 5-game road trip and are 0-4 thus far...They would like to go Home with a win under their belts...Knicks banged up and Marbury has got to be a bit of a distraction at this point...GS the better team...Knicks 3-6 SU their last 9 and those wins were against MEMP (4-12), OKC (1-16) & WAS (2-11)...I look for Stephen Jackson to bounce back big from his 2-for-11 last night and I look for the Warriors to finish this road trip strong...

Level 1 -- Los Angeles Clippers -2, laying $250 to win $262.50 -- A let-down spot here for Miami, pure and simple...The heat could not look any better on a nationally televised game last night, as they thrashed PHOE and Wade put up 43...Clips are bad, I know, but are 3-2 ATS their last 5 after their 1-9 ATS start...Third home game in a row and they have 2 days rest, catching the Heat in a let-down spot...If you like fading the public, I am quite sure they will be all over Miami tonight although I haven't even looked yet -- well, I don't need to look, I know who the squares will be on)...

Level 1 -- Houston Rockets -3, laying $272.50 to win $250 -- Yes, Parker is back and Ginobili has been back...Yes, HOU is 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS at Home...But Houston has a revenge spot here as they took SA too lightly 2 weeks ago...T-Mac may play (questionable) and if he does, that'll be a bonus and the line will probably go up...I like the Rockets regardless...They have had 2 days to stew over that loss to Indy where they totally blew the game in the 2H...Spurs on a back-ender...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL... <!-- / message -->

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

 

[brewers7]

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 17-16, -$177.50
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 115-126-5
#1 picks: 18-15

Totals: 133-110-2
#1 picks: 13-20
=====================================

Day 34:

I could rant all day about that Clippers loss yesterday...I'd be back in the black right now...2-unit swing...Murphy's Law there...Everything that could go wrong, did...The line moved 4.5 points 20 minutes after I bet it...Shouldn't have mattered...Clips up 8 with 1:20 left...How many teams win or lose by in an NBA game when down 8 with 1:20 left during the season?...LAC with a missed FT, Heat with a trey with 7 seconds left to cut it to 1...No problem, right?...Clips will get fouled, 1 FT gives me a push and 2 gives me a win...Nope, baron davis turns it over and MIA gets the ball abck and misses and there is no time left to foul, game over...Toughest loss in 2 years for me for a few reasons...But hey, I just hope it evens out over the course of the season...

A lot of customers in today, so I am running late and despite liking DET and the Under a lot, I didn't have time to bet them...I may bet Houston yet, but haven't decided...It's a classic fade the Home team playing their 4th game in 5 nights...

Sides:

#1 Det -4
#2 Hou +4
#3 Phi -6
#4 NJ +9
#5 Tor +12

Totals:

#1 Det un 186
#2 Tor ov 206
#3 Phi un 195
#4 Hou un 193
#5 NJ un 206.5

NO BETS...

GL... <!-- / message -->

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Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
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Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
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Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
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[brewers7]

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Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
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Bets record:
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Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 20-18, +$65
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Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
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Sides: 116-130-5
#1 picks: 18-16

Totals: 135-112-3
#1 picks: 14-20
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Day 35:

I blinked and the Mia/GS total went up 2 points to 215...I am betting the 1Q now and will wait and see if I am going to bet the game total now after it jumped up...I still may bet it over...

Sides:

#1 Mia -2
#2 Bos -8.5
#3 Char -3.5

Totals:

#1 Mia ov 215
#2 Bos un 189.5
#3 Char un 184.5

BET:

Level 1 -- Miami/Golden State over 53.5, 1Q, laying $275 to win $250 -- After Miami 1Q's were almost all Under to start the season, 7 of their last 8 games have gone Over in the 1Q...GS 5-2 to the Over at Home in the 1Q this season...GS went Over their last 4 straight 1Q's overall (all on the Road)...Teams just get sucked into the GS pace and the 1Q's are usually very frenetic...Still debating a bet on the game total Over, but I worry about a close game, and then Nellie goes to a zone in the 4Q and the game slows down...

GL... <!-- / message -->

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

 

[rob0317]

Nice hit tonight and thanks for all your insight....always love reading your thoughts

Thanks

 

[Retburj13]

nice job

i unabashedly tailed

 

[Mo]

nice hit i have the under for the game, which looks like a money burner but WOW this is a long thread

 

[brewers7]

nice hit i have the under for the game, which looks like a money burner but WOW this is a long thread

Weekly thread, so it'll get long...Sorry...But thanx guys and GL to everyone as the season progresses...