NBA 2008-09, Week 2 thread...

[brewers7]

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Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
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Bets record:
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Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 3-3, -$75
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Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
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Sides: 27-19-1
#1 picks: 5-2

Totals: 25-22
#1 picks: 1-6
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Day 8:

Random Thoughts:

Unders are 31-16 to this point, so the defenses are well ahead of the offenses to this point...Underdogs are 25-22, after starting 12-6...

Phoenix starts a 4 games in 5 nights stint (my favorite trend to track) tonight in New Jersey and the early surprise here is that with Coach D'Antoni out of town, the Suns have gone Over in all 3 games this years, while the Knicks only went Over in their opener with D'Antoni at the helm...Has Vegas over-adjusted these total lines thus far?...NJ has played 2 Unders in 2 games...These 2 teams have gone Under 5-of-6 and 7-of-9 overall h2h...But why does my gut tell me Over?...Well, I am not making it my #1 total so it actually has a chance to go Over, I guess...

I would jump all over Houston here in this spot except that the Celtics were 11-5 ATS coming off losses last year and 3-0 ATS after losses of 10 points or more in the regular season...The Celts did not lose a game by 20 or more points in the regular season (although they did in the playoffs and did not cover that one)...Celts coming off a bad loss at Indy, losing by 16 (Boston's largest losing margin was 18 last year pre-playoffs)...But I believe Houston has the better motivational spot here, which trumps the good spot for the Celtics...Boston ended the Rockets' shocking 22-game winning streak last year (2nd best in league history) with a 94-74 thrashing at Houston on March 18...No Yao Ming for that one, though...No Shane Battier this time, but Ron Artest is an equitable replacement...What was even more impressive about the Celtics' win last year was they had just beaten SA by a bucket the night before at SA, so they were on the back-end of a tought back-to-back and HOU had 1 day's rest for that one...Anyway, the Celts don't have Posey this year and that will make a difference, and it may show up tonight...Can't help but like the Under, but to me the side is the play here...And I think this game line may move to 4 by game time...

The Mavs were not good last year in back-enders, going 6-10-1 ATS, and the Spurs are 0-2 to start this young season...It looks like both of these teams are going to be 5-thru-8 seeds this year...5 of the last 7 h2h have gone Under...I give the nod to the Spurs here only because they are winless, but I'll be watching this one from the sidelines with my money firmly placed in my wallet as I am not touching this one with a bet...Oh, and I'll be watching this game during the commercials of the Bos/Hou game as that is the game I want to see...

Sides:

#1 Hou -2
#2 SA -3.5
#3 NJ +5.5

Totals

#1 Hou un 178
#2 NJ ov 204
#3 SA ov 189


NO BETS

I really want to bet the Rockets here, but I will probably take one more day off and try and line up a game or two on Wednesday since we have 13 games on the board...I more or less want to just enjoy watching that game...If the line remains at 2, maybe I'll grab it later, but I doubt it, I see it sliding upward...

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Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
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Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
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Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
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[O-State]

For some reason emotionally I think Houston has this game circled as their barometer of how they stack up with Ron Artest in town. Boston is going to get their first real test of being the "hunted," the champions coming to town.

IMO I think Houston on that 22 game streak shorthanded and unable to find bodies to score, they were exhausting themselves every night trying to keep that streak alive and we're so due when Boston came into town. The lack of playmaking ability was evident.

Posey, man that guy is a big time player saw NO @ PHX he was hitting threes left and right. Wondered why Ainge didn't let Eddie House walk instead. Now I think I'm seeing why. Celts think Tony Allen fills the void. Recall Okie State days, beastly defender. Rivers said Allen is a better scorer than Posey as well. If that void is replaced by Allen Celtics look good to get back to the Finals.
----Van Gundy made a good point in the Bulls-Celtics game. Ainge needs to be looking for some length to acquire. The bench of Davis and Powe is scrappy but lacking in length and P.J. Brown was enormous in the playoffs last year. Also noted in that game the addition of 7 footer Patrick O'Bryant, 12th overall pick and 2nd year player out of Bradley. Golden State must of given up on him early but obviously there is some skill there and Rivers really really thinks he can be something down the road.

--I thought on Houston. Battier will help them but I think they need to improve their bench because it doesn't stack up to the other teams in the West right now.

San Antonio looks good tonight. Not only is SA desperate but Dallas has looked horrid and IMO there is some transition in this early year with Carlisle in town. New coaches I think have been good to fade early in the season.

SA-Portland game I think Portland had an 8 point lead or so heading into the fourth and I thought that would be a great spot to grab SA 4th quarter line. You just knew with their experience and road battles and grit that game was going down to the last possession.

 

[Slug]

"Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]"

hahaha, thanks for the heads up.

serioulsy though, good stuff :cheers:

 

[Blue_Chip]

BOL this week brewers. Glad you are not on the Celtics tonight

 

[brewers7]

For some reason emotionally I think Houston has this game circled as their barometer of how they stack up with Ron Artest in town. Boston is going to get their first real test of being the "hunted," the champions coming to town.

IMO I think Houston on that 22 game streak shorthanded and unable to find bodies to score, they were exhausting themselves every night trying to keep that streak alive and we're so due when Boston came into town. The lack of playmaking ability was evident.

Posey, man that guy is a big time player saw NO @ PHX he was hitting threes left and right. Wondered why Ainge didn't let Eddie House walk instead. Now I think I'm seeing why. Celts think Tony Allen fills the void. Recall Okie State days, beastly defender. Rivers said Allen is a better scorer than Posey as well. If that void is replaced by Allen Celtics look good to get back to the Finals.
----Van Gundy made a good point in the Bulls-Celtics game. Ainge needs to be looking for some length to acquire. The bench of Davis and Powe is scrappy but lacking in length and P.J. Brown was enormous in the playoffs last year. Also noted in that game the addition of 7 footer Patrick O'Bryant, 12th overall pick and 2nd year player out of Bradley. Golden State must of given up on him early but obviously there is some skill there and Rivers really really thinks he can be something down the road.

--I thought on Houston. Battier will help them but I think they need to improve their bench because it doesn't stack up to the other teams in the West right now.

San Antonio looks good tonight. Not only is SA desperate but Dallas has looked horrid and IMO there is some transition in this early year with Carlisle in town. New coaches I think have been good to fade early in the season.

SA-Portland game I think Portland had an 8 point lead or so heading into the fourth and I thought that would be a great spot to grab SA 4th quarter line. You just knew with their experience and road battles and grit that game was going down to the last possession.

Very good insight here and I agree with all of it...GL...

BOL this week brewers. Glad you are not on the Celtics tonight .

It's either bet Houston or stay away, IMO...GL...

 

[SportsNut]

I think this is going to be an interesting NBA season . I just dont have much time these days to catch up on sports that are just starting new seasons so maybe I am stating the obvious to some degree. Bewteen the player movement and youth movement combined with age continuing to impact a certain core of players teams really look weak offensively compared to last year . I thought with some defections to the EAST bewteen players and coaches the NBA would be transformed into the West Coast offensive philosophy. I just see alot of teams who lack benches and I mean really lack a bench , teams starting young and /or raw players , and sort of what happened in MLB and the NFL this year where the elite teams and upper teams tended to take 1 ,2 sometimes even 3 steps backward with alot of teams doing the same or slightily improving . Causing a level out process which some call parity but I think its the wrong term because overall talent has diminished IMO .


My point is the unders are probably due more to unrealistic expectations my both the betting market and oddsmakers . Also injuries to very key players as well as suspensions whether short or long have played a role. Its kinda crazy is what I am getting at . Memphis has 3 rookies starting Arthur , Mayo , Gasol , Houston despite the fact they tried to get away from JVG ball with Adelman added the best defensive player in the NBA to go along with the human clog Yao Ming , OKC still has a weak roster IMO , ATL loses bench strength with CHildress gone , and add in the coaching changes implenting new systems and philosophies will I have hope it will change I think maybe we have to change our approach on some level. At least for now because it seems like more then just an offensive funk . Now look at AI having to fit into DET as another hurdle to overcome offensively.Without going through the entire NBA I think the jist of my point was made :shake:

 

[AtlHawks]

Nut, look again at my boyz.

Chill gone but... added Evans and Flip Murray. All our youngins are a year older:tiphat:

 

[SportsNut]

Nut, look again at my boyz.

Chill gone but... added Evans and Flip Murray. All our youngins are a year older:tiphat:

Wasnt dissing ur hawks just a commentary on how teams have changed . To me 1 Childress off the bench is worth more then two 30 year old vets who are just marginal role players . Flip Murray has this label of a decent scorer and shooter and the guy is 40% career from the floor if you exclude his best year of 44-45%.

Big picture ATL might be a better team but think losing Childress weakens their offense some ....Just a point how some mid level teams have taken a small step back IMO offensively...

:shake:

 

[brewers7]

My point is the unders are probably due more to unrealistic expectations my both the betting market and oddsmakers . Also injuries to very key players as well as suspensions whether short or long have played a role. Its kinda crazy is what I am getting at . Memphis has 3 rookies starting Arthur , Mayo , Gasol , Houston despite the fact they tried to get away from JVG ball with Adelman added the best defensive player in the NBA to go along with the human clog Yao Ming , OKC still has a weak roster IMO , ATL loses bench strength with CHildress gone , and add in the coaching changes implenting new systems and philosophies will I have hope it will change I think maybe we have to change our approach on some level. At least for now because it seems like more then just an offensive funk . Now look at AI having to fit into DET as another hurdle to overcome offensively.Without going through the entire NBA I think the jist of my point was made :shake:

Yeah, you nailed it here...

"unrealistic expectations" based on everything you said...

Now Vegas will adjust the lines downward, and they are big-time already, so now the key is recognizing the exact point that the tide will collectively turn offensively in the league this season and the Overs will start hitting regularly for a week or so...That is always the challenge for me...Getting in on the value before the public does and the lines start going back up again...

But yes, a LOT of Unders so far based on the very things you posted there...

 

[brewers7]

Random thoughts for Wednesday:

Glad I didn't bet anything as I was 0-3 with my Sides AND Totals last night and if you count the half-time play that I THOUGHT about and ALMOST bet (but didn't), then I was 0-7 on the night...A Mouse can do better...Hopefully I will do better tonight...

Unders now 33-17 on the season...Underdogs 27-23...

DET at TOR -- Looks like Iverson will play as there is no line out yet...He may make this team better later in the season, but right away??...Sheed didn't seem too ecstatic with the trade at first...So you ask how did Denver do when Iverson made his debut with the Nuggets?...Well it was on 12/22/06, and Iverson came off the bench and played 39+ minutes and shot well (9-for-15 from the floor for 22 points), but Denver lost at Home to SAC as 2.5 chalk 101-96...Now Denver was missing Camby due to a hand injury and Melo and JR Smith were suspended for that fracus at MSG with "toughie" Nate Robinson and others...I think Vegas will establish the Raptors as 4-point chalk here, maybe even 4.5 or 5...If it's less than 4, then I like Toronto a lot...DET 3-0 to the Over and TOR 3-0 to the Under in regulation time this season (Raps had an OT-aided Over) as 5 of the last 7 h2h have gone Under...

PHOE at IND -- Indy coming off a 16-point win over BOS, and they have 3 days rest here and the Suns are on a back-ender and are 0-1 SU and ATS in this spot this season...Did Indy play well or did BOS play bad in that loss?...BOS gave the credit to Indy, but BOS had 24 turnovers, shot 34.6% from the floor and 60% from the FT line...Not going to beat any NBA team with numbers like that...Indy went Over vs. DET and quite frankly, the BOS game was an Over pace (159 shots and 62 FTs attempted) but the shooting on both sides was horrid...PHOE, in essence, should have had 4 Overs in 4 games, but a 31-point 4Q last night as NJ scored a whopping 9 points in the 4Q provided for a miracle Under last night...Over looks good...Side is a stay-away for me as Indy is in a slight let-down spot and PHOE is coming off a 63.2% shooting night last night which is an automatic fade for me against that team the next time out...

PHI at MIA -- Do we really need to wait on Marion's status here before Vegas puts a line out?...No line yet...Philly has covered 5 straight vs. the Heat and 5 of the last 6 have gone Under h2h...Philly has ORL up next, so possible look-ahead, but I doubt it because after blowing a 23-point lead in ATL 4 days ago, Mo Cheeks won't let this team lose focus this time (I would hope)...Philly probably 2.5 or 3-point chalk here...

CHAR at NY -- Should I do it again?...Take NY Over?...Knicks have covered 3 of the last 4 in this series and 3 straight have gone Over...Got to believe Larry Brown will be pulling out every stop to get a win at MSG in his first game back since his coaching debacle there for a season...This total looks too juicy for me...Be hard for me not to take one more shot at a Knicks Over as Charlotte did get 35 FT attempts against DET last time out so if they accomplished that vs. DET, they should have no problem repeating that performance or getting more FTs against the Knicks porous defense...

BOS at OKC -- Thunder yet to have an Over in 3 games and I would expect the Celtics to tighten the screws on defense tonight after a high-scoring affair at HOU last night...I hate laying big Road chalk, but BOS proved last year that let-down spots don't happen with them as they beat HOU last year at HOU to snap their 22-game win streak, and they beat them by 20 after defeating SA at SA the night before by a bucket...They then went on to beat DAL at DAL 2 nights later...

ATL at NO -- No line as we wait for the status of Chandler and Peja for the Hornets...NO has won and covered the last 4 in this series with 2 Overs at NO and 2 Unders at ATL...Battle of unbeatens and that is no surprise for the Hornets but nobody expected ATL to be 2-0...ATL 2-0 to the Under and NO 3-0 to the Over thus far...

CHI at CLE -- 7.5 or 8 points looks like a lot here to me...Both teams 2-2 as they have gotten there different ways with CLE doing the LWLW thing and CHI going WLWL...So this means CLE wins this one, right?...If only it was this simple, but even if it was this simple, this doesn't account for the all-important point-spread and who will cover that...Both teams 3-1 ATS...The Bulls have won and covered 3 straight in this series...

SA at MIN -- Ok, SA has won 10 of 11 and are 7-3-1 ATS in those games h2h vs. Minny...But people are saying that the Spurs are suddenly washed up after starting this season 0-3 SU & ATS, especially after that Home debacle last night against the Mavs...Oh, and SA is a bad back-end of a back-to-back team, too...Thing is, as bad as they were the past few seasons in that spot, they were also THAT GOOD in the front-end of those bk-2-bk'ers...And didn't everyone just write off Dallas 24 hours ago after CLE destroyed them at DAL and then the Mavs were playing the Spurs on a back-ender and the Mavs had absolutely no chance to win that game?...What happened again?...Ahh, yes, that's right, the Mavs did destroy the Spurs last night at SA...That "sad-sack" DAL team beat Minny by 10 at Minny, and this Spurs' price is opening cheap, so get on board before it goes up to 4.5 or 5...As far as the total goes, 5 of the last 6 and 7 of the last 9 have gone Over h2h...

WAS at MILW -- No line as we wait to see if Michael Redd plays...I may be wrong stating that MILW is a "chameleon" team as perhaps they are trying to establish themselves as a half-court set team...3 straight Unders, and those Unders went Under the Vegas total by about 60 points...I'll be watching...

PORT at UTAH -- The Blazers beat this team 3 out of 4 times last year SU and all 3 of those games went Under, while the Utah win went Over...But without Deron Williams, the Jazz are 3-0 to the Under, averaging about 15 PPG Under the Vegas total...PORT has gone Over 2 straight...Not sure about the total, but I like the points, despite the Blazers being 0-2 SU and ATS on the Road so far...

MEMP at SAC -- Kings missing Miller and Garcia...MEMP establishing themselves early as a stone Under team...4-0 to the Under and they've been a league-best 110 points Under the Vegas total number this season in their games...SAC started that way before flying Over the last 2 games of their Road trip...Home opener for SAC, and they are historically MUCH better at ARCO...But MEMP has covered 4 straight and 6 of 7 h2h here...SAC looks like the pick at first blush...

DEN at GS -- No line...Looks like Billups won't play but McDyess might which is strange to me...Maggette is questionable for GS...I usually LOVE this match-up Over, but Vegas has so over-inflated these totals since the 06-07 season that 4 of the last 5 have gone Under h2h...I am super-curious to see where Vegas puts this total...

LAC at LAL -- I guess the Lakers fans and the theatre-like lighting at Staples for "Lakers" home games is a lot different than the Clippers fans and the "normal" arena lighting that they have at Staples because the line shift from their last meeting a week ago is BIG as the Lakers opened at 9 or 9.5 chalk a week ago and now they are at 15 point chalk tonight to open...I don't believe the different colors on the floor or the cheerleaders for these home games make a difference...This line is perception based, and apparently they haven't made it high enough as the public seems to be on the Lakers early here...The Lake-show have pummeled the Clips in 5 straight with winning margins of 38, 28, 37, 18 & 21 the last 5 games...I wasn't a math major in college, but I don't need a calculator to know that the average margin of victory for these games = A LOT...4 straight Unders here h2h, which makes sense because usually blowouts = Unders...
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[O-State]

Looking at that game last night the announcer at the end he thought coming in Houston was really good but not on Boston level yet. And really that's how it played out. Unfortunately I think any situational aspect of Houston at home was lost when Boston got beatdown by Indiana.

....Who of the big 3 of Houston do you take over the Boston big 3? I don't take any of them. All 3 Boston guys have carried a team in the past by themselves. McGrady is the only one for Houston. Artest is a 2nd or 3rd option on most teams and he is clearly not the scorer of these other players and really not the type of scorer that I think given Houston's situaton would of really really helped them even though he is a big addition.

The Boston Big 3 have more talent, heart, and mental intelligence and fortitude. McGrady might stack up physically but clearly he is soft as is Yao. I was just reminded how un agile Yao is the guy is cement and cannot take two steps to block a shot. Sometims I question how good he is clearly loses confidence easily and will NEVER have the fire or competitive mindset. Rebounding as about attacking the ball and you could see Boston dominate in stretches because there was no agility in the paint for Houston. I think Scola attacks the ball as does Landry but maybe not the athleticism there and you'd like someone who can be more of an intimidator by putting some shots back, be ultra physical, and cover ground because Yao doesn't. Hard to find all 3 things not sure Scola is an intimidator or Landry and I don't think either are as powerful as a guy like Boozer or Milsap which would really open Yao's eyes up playing with them. Landry does a good Big Baby imitiation off the bench though.

Battier might be the heart and sole of this Houston team. This is the guy. Yao doesn't have it, McGrady looks like he's high, Battier is sorely missed. He brings a different chemstry and mental approach to the team and Houston needed that 3 ball out of the corner last night Battier stretch the offense. Battier is the one guy with the heart and mental ability the Boston Big 3 have.

------I have serious doubts Tony Allen can fill James Posey's shoes now. He can do a good job but the gap is very wide. Last night McGrady pulled up several times right over top of Allen no contest. The guy is 6-4. James Posey is 6-8. The Lebron's, Kobe's, McGrady's, will have their way. Allen can move his feet extremely well but alot of guys at this level can do that. He also fouled McGrady on the 3 at the end reaching end which is something he has to do, gamble, if he wants to contest shots due to his height. Posey stayed down on these pumpfakers and all the great ones try to make you bite. Posey also has a much better body. He plays so wide and physical and can get his body into you which has such a great impact. Tony Allen doesn't present that. I'm learning in this league guys coming out of college that are athletic and can score are a dime a dozen. Most of them have skinny narrow bodies and don't play physical. They fail and ppl wonder why he was so talented.

---Boston got better each playoff series. They are better now then they were last year at this stage. Allen, Pierce, Garnett the chemistry is there the impact of playing together one full season is tremendous.

 

[SportsNut]

That is the trick Brewer . When do we find that saturation point . I kinda harped on it because 2008 seems to be a year of adjustment. We saw the huge home team trends in MLB, then in the NFL and think this under run is part of the NBA adjustment . I do think that we also have seen a TON of inflated lines in unfavorable situations. Like teams playing B2B vs rested teams or teams in a B2B with OT vs a rested team. Feel the oddsmakers have been real sharp in finding the pulse of the betting world and making adjustments to suck out the value of certain angles.

Pretty much have very similiar thoughts on the card today. As far as the NY-Char total I definetly agree that this is probably a spot where its worth trying the over again. As I have mentioned and the whole world knows Brown is trying to transform his team from lazy jumpshooters who settle for shots to aggressive ballers who attack the hoop . So far 3 games and 98 FT attempts. Think Felton is questionable but he hasnt played particularly well and Shannon Brown hasnt been half bad with Augustin possibly drawing the start. Charlotte undersized with Dudley at the 4 makes this a good paper matchup as NY also likes to play a real small lineup...so while they have not avg'd a ton of points , shot attempts and things of that nature Cle and DET are two solid defensive teams who had good rebounding edges leaving few second chance opps

GL:shake::cheers:

 

[Trueblue]

plethora of info, liked your stuff a lot from covers.. GL tonight.

 

[brewers7]

Thanx TrueBlue...

As I have mentioned and the whole world knows Brown is trying to transform his team from lazy jumpshooters who settle for shots to aggressive ballers who attack the hoop .

To back up this point, look at how many minutes Carroll is playing for the Bobcats...He is arguably their best pure shooter (ok, I know Richardson is deadly from the perimeter, but as a spot-up shooter, Carroll is at least equal if not better), and he played 13 minutes in their opener, went 0-for-2, and Brown hasn't even played him the last 2 games...Of course, all he does is shoot outside shots...I look for him to be released or traded and I believe a good team looking for an outside threat may grab him to solidify their bench...

 

[SportsNut]

Thanx TrueBlue...



To back up this point, look at how many minutes Carroll is playing for the Bobcats...He is arguably their best pure shooter (ok, I know Richardson is deadly from the perimeter, but as a spot-up shooter, Carroll is at least equal if not better), and he played 13 minutes in their opener, went 0-for-2, and Brown hasn't even played him the last 2 games...Of course, all he does is shoot outside shots...I look for him to be released or traded and I believe a good team looking for an outside threat may grab him to solidify their bench...

Not sure he is 100% healthy and Brown seems to making a point of not playing guys who arent 100% with May. He didnt shoot well in preseason either from what I recall which probably didnt help matters either . They do need some balance and you really cant ask guys like Morrison and Carroll to be much else . Did notice that as well .

Did some quick research before I hit submit and he is healthy . The other explanation I would have offered would be its either Adam Morrison or Matt Carroll and the team going with the younger player and the oe with more upside . Which seems to be the case . Brown says Carroll has done nothing wrong so looks like you are right his days are numbered .

If McDyess gets bought out possible he rejoins Charlotte and fills a HUGE need.

Also was interesting to read Jordan is the one got SHannon Brown in Charlotte from playing some pickup ball against him. Learn something new everyday ...

BOL:cheers:

 

[brewers7]

Not sure he is 100% healthy and Brown seems to making a point of not playing guys who arent 100% with May. He didnt shoot well in preseason either from what I recall which probably didnt help matters either . They do need some balance and you really cant ask guys like Morrison and Carroll to be much else . Did notice that as well .

Did some quick research before I hit submit and he is healthy . The other explanation I would have offered would be its either Adam Morrison or Matt Carroll and the team going with the younger player and the oe with more upside . Which seems to be the case . Brown says Carroll has done nothing wrong so looks like you are right his days are numbered .

If McDyess gets bought out possible he rejoins Charlotte and fills a HUGE need.

Also was interesting to read Jordan is the one got SHannon Brown in Charlotte from playing some pickup ball against him. Learn something new everyday ...

BOL:cheers:

Interesting stuff and great point about Morrison/Carroll...Thank you, sir, and BOL to you, too...

 

[brewers7]

=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
=======================================================================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
=======================================================================
Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 3-3, -$75
=======================================================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 27-22-1
#1 picks: 5-3

Totals: 25-25
#1 picks: 1-7
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Day 9:

Random Thoughts already posted...A lot of line-moves today...My #1 totals have been atrocious, losing 6 straight now and 7 of 8 to start the year, but I am hoping tonight will be the end of the bad streak as the non-stop Unders to this point of the season has provided some value in some of these totals that cannot be ignored...

Sides:

#1 GS -3.5
#2 Tor -3.5
#3 Chi +9
#4 Phi -3
#5 Port +6.5
#6 Sac -3
#7 LAC +13.5
#8 Phoe -3.5
#9 OKC +9
#10 Atl +8.5
#11 SA -5
#12 Char +5
#13 Was +1

Totals

#1 NY ov 206
#2 GS ov 206.5
#3 Tor un 181
#4 OKC un 183
#5 LAC un 195
#6 SA un 181
#7 Port un 188.5
#8 Sac un 193.5
#9 Phoe ov 204.5
#10 Phi un 190.5
#11 Atl ov 194.5
#12 Chi ov 186.5
#13 Was un 188.5

Bet:

Level 1 -- Charlotte/New York over 204.5, laying $275 to win $250 -- Line was at 203 last night and I almost bet it, but figured "how much can it really move in 8 hours?"...Well it was at 206 earlier...I waited and it is dropping again and you can get it at this total with positive juice at the moment at Pinny...I am taking one more shot here at a Knicks Over...NY is dead last in the league in FG%...Can only improve...This Unders domination with NBA totals will turnaround at some point...I am looking for a ton of FTs tonight from both teams which will hopefully get us more points...Pace should be ok tonight...I just cannot see a D'Antoni offense being stifled yet again, and even though Larry Brown loves defense, he's got some athletes with the Bobcats who probably arn't going to mind running up and down the floor in this one for long spurts...

Level 1 -- Denver/Golden State over 53, 1Q, laying $275 to win $250 -- I simply cannot help myself here...Golden State is a much different team at Home than on the Road...A lot more Overs at Home...That arena is electric when they play there, you can almost feel the energy, and the Warriors feed off that energy...I realize that the personnel is completely different with both teams now from a year ago and we have a trade and injuries here to factor in, and I realize that Denver is 6th in the league in defense in terms of FG% allowed, so I guess the Nuggets' players weren't just whistling Dixie in the preseason when they said they were focused on defense...But there was a good article on a blog that talked about Denver and their defense last years in terms of points allowed per possession and not points per game, and I believe DEN was 29th last year defensive in terms of PPG, but were somewhere around 9th to 14h in terms of allowing points per possession...Just one look at the insane totals these 2 have played the last 2 seasons lends one to believe that you have a bargain times two with tonight's line, but I'll take the 1Q Over because there is no doubt in my mind that the pace will be an Over pace in the 1Q for sure tonight...just need the shots to go in and some dunks and lay-ups in transition for both teams won't hurt, either...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...
<!-- / message -->
=======================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
=======================================================================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
=======================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot... Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
=======================================================================

<!-- / message -->
<!-- / message -->

 

[cisco]

On both tonight brewer.

GL-

 

[JPicks]

Well there it is. Been staring down that Nuggets total all day thinking I was going to hit the over but the 4th quarters of Warriors games are always a stick in the mud. Following suit on that 1Q play.

BOL and great thread.

 

[brewers7]

Ok, tough beat with the long drought during the last 6 minutes of the Knicks game last night, but that's the NBA, you expect tough losses and move on to the next day...

PHI at ORL -- 10 of the last 14 have gone Over h2h...Philly has been outscored in 3 of 4 quarters in both of their Road games, and outscored badly at that...ORL has won 5 of the last 6 SU (3-3 ATS) and 12 of the last 17 SU (7-9-1 ATS) h2h...Philly lost and did not cover their only back-ender this year and it was on the Road at Atlanta, blowing a 23-point lead...Philly had 26 turnovers last night, which may be close enough to a general rule I have where you take a good team off a 30+ turnover game the next time out...Philly Under is 4-1 this year and ORL is 3-1 to the Under...Philly's back-ender at ATL was an Under...

HOU at PORT -- Houston has won 5 straight and covered 3 straight h2h, and the Rockets have won 15 of 18 SU in this h2h match-up, but are just 10-8 ATS in those games...The Under is 7-2 and 10-4 over the last 9 & 14 games, althogh the previous 4 went Over...Portland's only back-ender this season was an Over and they have gone Over 3 straight...PORT much-improved at Home and they beat SA in their only Home game this season...

Teams with rest playing teams on back-enders are 6-10 ATS this season, but most of those ATS losses were by "bad" teams or teams with .500 or losing records so far this season...In fact, 9 of those 10 ATS losses were by .500 teams or worse, with the Lakers the only winning team Not to cover in that spot, but they had an over-inflated 8-point line to cover at DEN and they almost did cover it anyway, winning by 7...ORL is a .500 team and HOU is 3-1 with this situation tonight...

If you look at the Hou/Port total, currently at 184.5, if you go back over several seasons between these 2 teams h2h, you will see this:

23 of their last 30 games have had totals Under that 184.5...There were also two 186's and a 185...20 of the last 30 have gone Under the Vegas number h2h here...

Not much really sticking out here as far as a bet goes, so I may pass and look at the 13-game card for FRI... <!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->

 

[hoopsstar22]

brewers-

I continue to read everyday, so don't think your work is going unappreciated. As I said before, I know very little about the NBA, and professional sports in general, so this will act as my educational year for the NBA. Very little betting with maximum absorption.

Continue the good work.

 

[Marlo]

Brewer tough beat in that Knicks game last night. Good luck for the rest of the week, and if you do play something tonight.

I like hoop, read your thread everyday. Keep up the great work.

 

[HereWeGo]

Thanks for turning me onto that 1st quarter over in Oakland last night Brew, never in doubt.

 

[brewers7]

=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
=======================================================================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
=======================================================================
Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 4-4, -$100
=======================================================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 32-30-1
#1 picks: 6-3

Totals: 31-32
#1 picks: 1-8
=====================================

Day 10:

Random Thoughts already posted...I am passing today on bets...#1 Totals a debacle right now...I should stick with #1 sides till further notice...

Sides:

#1 Port +5
#2 Phi +5

Totals

#1 Port un 183.5
#2 Phi un 193.5

NO BETS

=======================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
=======================================================================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
=======================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot... Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
=======================================================================

<!-- / message --><!-- / message --><!-- / message -->

 

[brewers7]

RANDOM THOUGHTS on Friday's card:

NO at CHAR – These 2 teams have met 8 times and NO has won 6 of them SU and 7 of them ATS…Looks like a lot of points to me, but then again all 6 of the Hornets wins in this h2h series have been by at least 9 points…

<O</O
NY at WAS – All 3 games last year h2h went Over, but one was OT-aided…I may be stubborn here, but this game looks like an Over …Knicks have covered 4 of the last 5 h2h…WAS looking for their first win of the season…Knicks looked bad at Philly, their only Road game…Of course, WAS didn’t look good at all vs. NJ, their only home game…<O</O
<O</O

DET at NJ – Iverson’s debut with DET…DET 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS against NJ the last 12 h2h…4 Overs and a push the last 5 h2h…DET 4-0 to the Over this year while NJ is 3-0 to the Under, although their last game should have been an Over against PHOE…Possible look-ahead for DET as they have Boston next…<O</O
<O</O

IND at CLE – The Cavs have had a convenient schedule to this point as they have a day off after each game…They are 4-1 ATS…CLE is 10-1 SU and 8-1-2 ATS the last 11 vs. Indy h2h…These 2 have been streaky with their totals the last 20…6 Overs, then 6 Unders, a push and an Under, then 4 Overs and the last 2 have gone Under…<O</O
<O</O

TOR at ATL – The Hawks a surprising, if not shocking 3-0 record to start the season and they are 3-0 ATS and 3-0 to the Under…TOR has won and covered 4 of the last 5 vs. ATL, but lost their last game at ATL…TOR is 6-0 ATS the last six 1H lines vs. ATL…4 of the last 5 and 13 of the last 15 have gone Over h2h…<O</O
<O</O

MIA at SA – Lowest spread between these 2 at SA since 1996…24 of the last 30 h2h have gone Under including 3 straight and 16 of the last 18…SA has won 10 straight h2h at SA, going 8-2 ATS…SA 0-4 ATS on the season, while MIA is 0-2 SU & ATS this season on the Road…

<O</OPHOE at CHI – Suns should be 5-0 to the Over this season (ridiculously low 4Q at NJ got a miracle Under there)…Suns also 4-1 SU & ATS on the season…PHOE 8-2 SU & ATS the last 10 vs. CHI…4 of the last 6 Over h2h…I am not worried about the side here as the Over looks like the play as CHI has played mostly Under opponents so far and still have 2 Overs in 5 games…

<O</OOKC at UTA – Jazz swept OKC last year, although the Thunder covered 2 and have actually covered 8 of the last 11 h2h…All 4 games last year went Under h2h…OKC 4-0 to the Under this season and Utah 3-1 to the Under…No Deron Williams again (doubtful)…Utah 4-0 on the season and they have covered 3 in a row…

<O</OMIN at SAC – All 3 games went Over last year h2h…Early revenge spot for Minny, who won at home vs. Sac 9 days ago and it was an Under…Brad Miller is back for SAC…

<O</ODAL at DEN – Mavs have won 9 of 13 h2h but DEN has won 3 of last 4 h2h…11 of the last 16 h2h have gone Under, but 2 of 3 last year went Over…DAL has had 3 straight Unders, going Under the Vegas line by an average of 14 PPG…How do Billups and McDyess fit into the Denver equation?...Does Denver slow it down now?...Doubt it, but their defense could improve some more in terms of points allowed per possession…

<O</OMEMP at GS – Warriors a revenge spot here as they already lost to MEMP at MEMP 90-79 four days ago…The game was 31 points Under the Vegas number, but the pace was certainly quick, with 174 shots and 35 FTs…While MEMP shot ok at 46.2%, GS only shot 34.4%...Maggette is expected to miss and Harrington wants out of GS as he is demanding a trade and has been a problem all season, feuding with Nellie…He only played 16 minutes last game and only scored 3 points…He may not play Friday…MEMP had 4 straight Unders before going Over at SAC last time out (barely), but it took 106 points in the 2H to get Over the total…GS had won 7 straight h2h before the loss 4 days ago and 4 straight and 5 of the last 6 h2h have gone Under…

<O</OHOU at LAC – No line posted…Rockets have won 17 of 20 SU and are 13-7 ATS h2h vs. Clips…HOU 9-1 SU and ATS last 10 at LAC…Clippers 0-5 on the season SU & ATS, and are 4-1 to the Under (in regulation – 1 over was OT-aided)…Gotta think the Clips have the motivational edge here…They did last time out vs. the Lakers, but LAL wore them down and took over in the 4Q (Clips led at the half)…So is a 1H bet on the Clips applicable here?...Clips have covered 4 straight 1H lines, despite being 0-5 SU and ATS…HOU has the Lakers up next…<O</O

 

[brewers7]

=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
=======================================================================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
=======================================================================
Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 4-4, -$100
=======================================================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 33-31-1
#1 picks: 7-3

Totals: 32-33
#1 picks: 1-9
=====================================

Day 11:

Random Thoughts already posted...Overtime cost the Port Under yesterday, thank god there was no bet...NBA #1 Sides have always been my pride and joy and they have weathered this early storm and are 7-3 and obviously I should be betting those...#1 Totals have lost 8 straight and totals are either on ON or OFF and most years, #1 totals don't kick in until mid-December, although in recent years they have been fast out of the gate...Uh, NOT this year...I like my top 3 totals a lot tonight, but I simply cannot bet them due to the horrible start my totals have had...

Sides:

#1 LAC +6
#2 Tor +3
#3 Chi +4.5
#4 OKC +11
#5 Memp +7
#6 NJ +7.5
#7 Was -5.5
#8 Char +7.5
#9 SA -6
#10 Milw +13.5
#11 Sac -4
#12 Dal +1
#13 Ind +8.5

Totals

#1 Chi ov 204.5
#2 Was ov 210
#3 Memp ov 195
#4 Tor un 185.5
#5 OKC un 185.5
#6 Sac ov 199
#7 Dal ov 206
#8 Ind ov 193.5
#9 NJ ov 190
#10 Char un 186
#11 SA un 189.5
#12 LAC ov 181.5
#13 Milw un 183

Bets:

Level 1 -- Toronto Raptors +3, $275 to win $250 -- Taking the better team here...Atlanta is red-hot out of the gate...We all know it won't last...But admittedly, the hardest thing to do when you are looking at a hot team is trying to figure out WHEN they re going to lose...Generally I will let the hot streak end and then go against them, but ATL has only played 3 games, so it's not like they are 6-0 and counting, where I would definitely let the streak ride out and then go against them as soon s they lose...Raptors coming off their first loss of the season and I look for them to bounce back while I look for a slight let-down out of the Hawks, who played way above their heads, IMO, at New Orleans to beat the Hornets last time out...

Level 1 -- Los Angeles Clippers +6, laying $275 to win $250 -- This is a bit risky for me only because LAC is on a NC5 to start the season (and are 0-5 SU) and I generally let these streaks end before I bet them because sometimes these streaks will get up to as high as 8 to start the season ATS-wise...But I like Baron Davis...He didn't go to the Clips to lose...He wants to win, make no mistake about it...Sure, it's taking some time to have Camby and Davis fit in here, but the Clips have Covered 4 straight 1H lines before falling apart in the 2H all 4 of those games...It is just a matter of focus and playing 48 minutes and I am sure Coach Dunleavy hammered that home at practice yesterday...Getting 6 at Home against a team who played a tough OT loss last night is a bonus, IMO, as 3 Houston starters played heavy minutes in that tough loss...

=======================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
=======================================================================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
=======================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot... Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
=======================================================================

<!-- / message -->

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Good stuff I love those 2 picks, living in Canada and the Raps are always a solid team, especially when given points vs the hawks. The Raps are going to be the surprise team of the east IMO-

Did you give any thought to the Clippers 1st qtr- as they have been winning every single game this season after the first qtr? I also thought about the first half at +3--

I find that with a team from Houston, they will start slow and the Clippers have been in LA since Monday and had one game at home vs the Lakers so they have been there and are rested. I cannot see them coming out slow, especially since they have shown that they have been winning every single game at the end of the 1st qtr and also every halftime except for one game in which they trailed by 1 point at half?

Thoughts appreciated as i like both plays but was thinking of that Clips 1st qtr play or1st half play?

 

[brewers7]

I did mention in my random thoughts with the Rockets/Clips game that the Clippers have covered 4 straight 1H lines...

Yes, they also have covered 4 straight 1Q lines...

To be frank, I think all 3 plays are good ones, 1Q, 1H and Game...The only thing I worry about on the game line is a moose at the end if there is a foul-fest at the end and the Clips get the short-end of it...

The only reason I didn't bet the 1Q or 1H is that I am worried about Houston stepping out of the gate fast out of nowhere, and then losing steam themselves in the 2H after that tough game last night...I have seen many times that teams on a back-ender after a tough loss come out quick...But I have also seen instances where a team in the same spot got mauled in the 1Q and never catch up...

Thing is though, the good teams usually are the ones that start fast in this situational spot and the bad teams are the ones who usually flop right out of the gate in this spot...HOU is a good team, therefore I am passing on the 1Q and 1H line, even though they look solid to me for taking the Clips...

BOL to you, sir...

 

[brewers7]

=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
=======================================================================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
=======================================================================
Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 4-6, -$650
=======================================================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 41-36-1
#1 picks: 7-4

Totals: 40-38
#1 picks: 1-10
=====================================

Day 12:

I might be a good fade for the next 2 or 3 weeks...My pride-and-joy, my #1 sides are 7-4, so perhaps I should just be betting those...My #1 totals have now lost 9 straight, hich must be close a record for me...I have tracked these but don't know of the top of my head what my worst streak is for #1 totals...I know I lost 10 in a row on the #1 sides once in the last 17 years, and it was last year, when I had severely limited capping time...My best win streak was 11, in 1996-97, I believe...

I am not capping badly, as I have winning records for both sides and totals for ALL picks and went 8-5 in both categories last night, a card I liked...I told a friend yesterday afternoon that I should bet every side & total and I'd probably have a good day, and well, 16-10 is better than the 0-2...problem is it would be such a departure for me to bet every side and total on a 13-game board, that it would just feel too weird to do it, even though it may be a good idea when I see a board like yesterday...

Only real problem I am having right now is getting the winners to the top of the list (in the #1, 2 & 3 picks range, instead of 7, 8 or 9)...Yesterday a good example as I bet my top 2 sides and went 0-2, while going 8-3 with all the other sides...My #2 and #3 totals were easy winners, while my #1 was a stone loser, and I took the Over at the #1 pick even knowing that CHI was one of the top teams defensively in FG% allowed this season...Not making smart enough decisions with my bets and top totals...

My #1 sides have always been pretty solid historically...My #1 totals have been solid the last 4 years, but very flaky and bad at times in previous years...There is no way I will be having Level 2 or 3 bets any time soon until I get the picks at the top of the list and bets straightened out...But I may hover around 50% for a few weeks and may not get hot until around Week 6 if history is any indicator here...Time will tell...Be very careful when contemplating bets on my plays right now...I am only betting 2.5% of my bankroll right now and am in no danger whatsoever of losing that BR, but it's important to keep the bet level low until further notice...

Some quick MISC stuff:

ORL has covered 7 straight 1Q lines vs. WAS...
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
NJ has covered 8 straight 1H lines and 7 of 8 1Q lines vs. Indy and 17 of the last 20 Over the total h2h...NJ has covered 7 of last 9...
<o></o>
NO covered 6 straight and 10-of-13 vs. MIA and 6-of-last-7 have gone Over h2h...
<o></o>
PORT 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS last 10 vs. Minny…6 of last 7 Over after 8 unders h2h…PORT has covered 6 straight...


Sides:

#1 Phoe -5.5
#2 Chi +2
#3 NJ +8
#4 NO -11
#5 Orl -9.5
#6 Port -8

Totals

#1 Port ov 191
#2 Phoe ov 197.5
#3 NO un 191.5
#4 NJ ov 199
#5 Chi un 189
#6 Orl un 198.5

Bet:

Level 1 -- Phoenix Suns -5.5, laying $275 to win $250 -- The first game of the season with my favorite trend, the 4-games-in-5-days-trend, so this is an automatic play on the visiting team and since I am in no mood to overthink when I am struggling, i will just make the automatic play and bet it...I won't bet these blindly, as these 4-of-5's can be very streaky, too...SHAQ didn't play last night (rested for tonight) and the PHOE startrs did not play extended minutes...Still no Redd...Milwaukee may be at Home, but had to travel farther than PHOE and they may have exerted more energy keeping that Celtics game close last night than PHOE did getting hammered at CHI...I don't see MILW winning this game, so since PHOE has good FT shooters, even if the game is very close at the end, if MILW fouls them in the waning seconds, PHOE should get over that number by hitting their FTs, but in all honesty, I hope this is a double-digit win for the Suns and I don't have to sweat too much...

=======================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
=======================================================================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
=======================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
=======================================================================

 

[tuck321]

Really hope you win this. :tiphat:

 

[SF_capper]

Donb't quite understand. You play ON teams playing their 4th game in 5 nights? has this been profitable in the past?

 

[Dollaz]

Donb't quite understand. You play ON teams playing their 4th game in 5 nights? has this been profitable in the past?

Little confused about this as well. Thinking maybe it was the Bucks that were in that situation, but no.

 

[brewers7]

Donb't quite understand. You play ON teams playing their 4th game in 5 nights? has this been profitable in the past?

Play ON Away teams playing their 4th game in 5 nights or fade the Home team playing 4 in 5...

Not every situation, got to pick your spots...

It did hit around 70% for an entire season in the mid 90s and I was on most, and Vegas has made adjustments since then...Some years better than others, but I simply use it now to "flag" potential plays and if other stuff matches up with it (1-SHAQ resting last game, 2-Phoenix off a 17-point thrashing last night, 3-MILW travelling farther than PHOE to this game, 4-MILW kept it close with BOS for most of that game), then I'll make it play...

 

[brewers7]

=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
=======================================================================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
=======================================================================
Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 5-6, -$400
=======================================================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 43-39-2
#1 picks: 8-4

Totals: 43-41
#1 picks: 1-11
=====================================

Day 13:

I like my top 5 Sides tonight...I track how many times I win at least 4 of my top 5 NBA sides (because in my early days, I would play 5-team round-robins with my top 5 sides...I have yet to hit 4 out of 5...Was 3-1-1 one day...But for whatever reason, I like those the card today and my top 5, but the problem is I like them so much, it is difficult for me to differentiate one clear-cut pick above the other 4...So with the slow start, I will NOT bet any of them, instead of betting all 5...I may regret this decision...I'll know at night's end...

#1 totals now at 10 straight losses, which may be a personal high...Last night the PORT over missed by a point...I know I said I am not touching my totals with a bet until the tide turns, but it's going to be hard for me not to bet this GS/Sac Over in some fashion...I am "due" to win one right?...Well, before you employ a martingale strategy starting tonight on my #1 totals, I'll have to relay a true story to keep you from doing it...I have always been good at MLB totals...But about 5 or 6 years back, I lost my #1 MLB total on opening day, won it on Day 2, and then proceeded to lose 19 straight #1 totals in a row...19...I couldn't do that if I tried...Thank goodness that didn't happen earlier in my betting career because I may have lost everything, but in that instance, I actually did wait for the streak to end (and it helped to have the end of the NBA season and playoffs starting up and the NHL playoffs going to keep me away from betting at any point during THAT disaster...

Just a note on the ATL game...OKC (as Seattle) had won 8 straight vs. ATL and covered all 8 and covered all 8 1H lines until the Hawks beat them last January 25 at Seattle to end all 3 of those streaks...Even with h2h match-ups like this where rosters change yearly and arenas change, for whatever reason, when streaks like that end, they generally immediately reverse themselves the other way...

Also, if the Iverson trade had not happened, I would have been all over Detroit and they would have been a #1 side...It's that revenge spot again where Detroit is playing the team that eliminated them from the postseason last season (Boston) for the first time this season...That situational spot already 3-0 ATS this season (don't think I missed any)...But the Iverson trade throws a Mouse wrench into things a bit because now the Pistons are making adjustments after that trade which may slow them down a bit for this big game...

I should have a bet later...Unless I chicken out...

Sides:

#1 Atl -5
#2 Det -2
#3 Sac -4
#4 Hou +7.5
#5 Tor -3
#6 Den -8
#7 NY +4
#8 Dal -4

Totals

#1 Sac ov 215
#2 Det un 186.5
#3 NY ov 207
#4 Atl ov 183
#5 Tor un 183
#6 Hou un 187.5
#7 Den ov 199
#8 Dal un 185.5


=======================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
=======================================================================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
=======================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
=======================================================================

<!-- / message -->

 

[JPicks]

Nice work yesterday brewers. Like your first 5 as well, minus the Hawks.

 

[brewers7]

Thanx...

Bet:

This bet is currently plus-juice at Pinny...

Level 1 -- Golden State/Sacramento over 54, 1Q, laying $275 to win $250 -- The Kings have suddenly become a stone Over team the last 4 games and Golden State, well, it doesn't matter who is hurt, who got traded, they are going with their wild up-tempo style...The Warriors are just 1-2 to the over in the 1Q on the Road, but went Over at MEMP in the 1Q their last Road game (3 games ago) and have gone Over in the 1Q 3 straight games now and 4-of-6 this season...Only reason I am not betting the Over for the game is because if it is close, GS has a propensity to play low-scoring 4Q's on the Road, although SAC did not play a slow 4Q at Home their last time out...I already know the pace will be there for an Over in the 1Q, we just need the shots to fall...GS has averaged 24 shots and 6 FTs in the 1Q this year (26 shots and 4 FTs in the 1Q the last 3 games) and they played MEMP twice...SAC has averaged 23 shots and 5 FTs their 2 Home games in the 1Q and MEMP was one of those games...

 

[brewers7]

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Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
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Bets record:
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Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 6-6, -$150
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Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
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Sides: 47-43-2
#1 picks: 8-5

Totals: 45-47
#1 picks: 1-12
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Day 14:

So tempted to bet Memphis tonight as PHOE is playing their first home game after a 4-of-5 road trip and this young MEMP team is playing fairly well to this point with a 3-4 record SU and a 4-3 ATS record...Their 3 ATS losses were by extremely narrow margins, losing by 10 last night at Denver (getting 8.5), losing by 10 at CHI (getting 8) and losing by 5 at SAC (while getting 3), and SAC has blown out their other 2 home opponents...PHOE killed MEMP at home last year by 21 and they won both games at MEMP by 14...Different teams this year...

#1 totals for me almost laughable right now...I can shake my head at it without worrying about it only because I am not betting them...Helps to have 1Q and 1H bet options...I watch a lot of GS games and the color announcer made a great point a few games ago when he said this GS team is very young and will struggle shooting in opponents' arenas...Also being young, the energy of the Oracle Arena crowd helps them for their home games...This is why I took the Over in the 1Q at SAC yesterday...There is a website that has 1Q, 2Q, 3Q & 4Q breakdowns for shots and FTs made and taken per Quarter and I can see the pace of games and I track the results of ATS and Over/under in every quarter in my database, so I knew the GS/SAC over was pretty much a gimme and it would have been a Level 2 bet had I been handicapping better...They got 69 points in the 1Q for an easy win...

This is a new personal high losing streak for #1 totals...But I think it is a good thing, though...It shows the importance of tracking your own picks...People don't believe they can lose a lot of plays in a row...I have been tracking my plays for many, many years and it can be humbling to see all of the losing streaks over the years, but it is important to see those streaks to ward off any feelings of invincibility in regards to my top plays...When this #1 totals streak ends (if it ends) I should have an immediate win streak of 3 or 4 games (or hopefully more) afterwards...I am waiting for the streak to end before betting a total, although I could still bet a 1Q or 1H total if I see one...

I was 3-3 Week 1 and unless I see a 2H bet worthwhile, I'll be 3-3 for Week 2...Need to bet with MatchBook to eliminate this juice and hopefully and get on a winning streak...I like my Top 3 sides tonight, but I liked my Top 5 sides last night and went 2-3...I am exercising caution until I feel I am on the verge of breaking out...


Sides:

#1 Memp +11.5
#2 Tor +8.5
#3 Orl -7
#4 OKC +11
#5 NJ +9

Totals

#1 OKC ov 196.5
#2 NJ un 187.5
#3 Tor un 183
#4 Orl un 191.5
#5 Memp un 196.5

NO BETS

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Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
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Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
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Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
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