NBA 11/4 thru 11/10

ATLHawksBandwagon

ATLHawksBandwagon

Two-Shot Foul
Season:11-12 (-6.8u)

I'll be updating this first post to update my plays daily.

Atlanta Hawks/Boston Celtics Over 193 (2.2u to win 2)

I can't help myself from playing Hawks totals apparently. 2-2 on them so far, the Pistons loss was just a bad bet but that Suns loss the other day was a bit of a moose. When the Hawks score 105 and the Suns shoot 40%, it sucks. Anyway, for this game.

I've already decided to play unders when the Hawks are going up against a dominant PG like Billups or Kidd, that should be good. The Celtics obviously don't have that. They don't have much after the "Big 3." The Hawks on the other hand are one of the deepest teams in the East, maybe the NBA. So, basically, the only advantage the Hawks have in this game seems to be depth so their only chance is to run these old celtics off the court. I'm not saying they can do it, but they've gotta push the pace all game long. They'd get absolutely raped in a half court game. Unlike the Pho game, I'd expect them to maintain the fast pace even if their winning because the Celtics would make them pay for the slow pace, which the Suns couldn't do.

Should have a few more, took a couple days off the lick my wounds from this week.

Knicks/Magic Under 201.5 (2.2u to win 2)

NO Hornets +3.5 v San Antonio Spurs (2.2u to win 2)

Sacramento Kings +6 v Cleveland Cavaliers (2.2 to win 2)

BOL to everyone
 
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Reposting this because I'll be deleting the above post for my new plays throughout the week.

Atlanta Hawks/Detroit Pistons Over 191 (2.2u to win 2)

I was a game early betting on the Pistons new, faster paced offense as they went off for 119 against the Magic, despite shooting 44% from the field, and now they have Rip back. The Hawks total against the Mavs should have gone over 200 based on the pace of the game, but there were turnovers all over the place and the Hawks went the last six minutes of the first half without a FG, despite having plenty of chances. Zaza Pachulia is still out, so they'll once again go small with Horford at center. He and Acie Law got into foul trouble quickly, but the offense looked great with them in there.
Josh Smith and Josh Chilldress were a combined 6/22, which I don't expect to continue, since Childress is one of the most consistent players in the NBA. Smith was 0/4 from 3, and all the misses were atrocious, he's gotta stop shooting at some point ... the sooner the better.
The PG rotation was just as I thought it would be. Woodson has continued his tradition of allowing the worst PG to start the game, despite only playing that guy for 15 minutes or less. Last year it was inexplicably Royal Ivey starting and now Anthony Johnson. Acie Law should be in quickly though, so I'm not gonna let him turn me away from this bet. Lorenzen Wright shouldn't be able to go today, and I hope he doesn't because he adds nothing but defense.
I also would recommend the Hawks plus 8. It seems like the line is begging you to bet the Pistons in their home opener and in Rip's return, but as we know the Pistons hate covering at home, but I'm gonna stick with the over.

Phoenix Suns -8.5 v Cleveland Cavaliers (3.3u to win 3)
Phoenix Suns -5 1H v Cleveland Cavaliers (2.2u to win 2)

This is my biggest play of the year to date. The Cavs gave this line value by beating the Knicks, and the Suns lost their home opener to the Lakers. The Suns will be out for blood and they are the worst matchup in the league for the Cavs. Marion will defend Lebron as well as anyone, so long as Boobie doesn't go off again, the Cavs have noone else to look for that can score in bunches. This should be an MDF type play, I expect the Suns to win by 20.

Utah Jazz -1 v LA Lakers (2.2u to win 2)

Lakers are overvalued after beating the Suns. Boozer will kill them, Deron will kill them. I think Okur is going to be the difference because he has the ability to exploit Bynum and Kwame while those guys aren't consistent enough offensively to take advantge of their size difference against Okur.

Big night for me, BOL to everyone
 
Couldn't buy back on the Suns, I'm not gonna take the +7.5 ... I don't think the Cavs can hang with the pace of the Suns, with or without Amare
 
lmao the announcers said josh smith wants to be an outside shooter so bad

Dude there is a lot of defensive in this game down low.. ur over needs help.
 
Just got a text message from bar and he is worried about joe johnson taking rip to school
 
Go Hawks ... I really wish I could watch this, I just called Comcast, and they said it shouldn't be blacked out, haha. I'm getting every other game.
 
Thats really odd i wanna take the ml second half but ill just sit back and watch.

Good luck on ur plays, not sure whats up with the suns
 
For some reason lue is starting.. and he airballs his first shot by a mile
 
Awful night, but it was nice of the Suns to come through in the second half, only down 1.4u with Utah pending, might actually make some money today ... I love the NBA, haha.
 
Hawks/Nets Under 189 (1.1u to win 1)

Small play, but I think Kidd will kill the Hawks defensively, knocking Acie Law out early, so they'll be forced to play Anthony Johnson a little too much for my liking. He can't run the fast paced offense they want. Also, VC has been playing awful with his hurt hand and Kidd will be less likely to push the ball knowing the Hawks are more athletic and he's got a hurt thigh. I'm starting to realize that teams understand that, to win, the Hawks have to run teams off the floor. So, good teams will do anything to slow the pace and bad teams will be forced to play up to the Hawks pace.

Bulls -7 v Clippers (2.2u to win 2)

I knew I should have been fading the Bulls with Deng's head a mess, but I think they snap out of it tonight. When they're focused, they kill people. The Clippers won't be able to get anything consistent downlow, and if the perimeter guys are playing good defense, the flood gates could and should open. I would play this for more if this was last year, but with the psyche of this team so messed up, I'm going to be a little cautious. If they're anything close to focused, they should lay the wood by 20+. In Skiles I trust.

Kings/Sonics Over 207.5 (1.1u to win 1)

I'm playing this under the assumption that neither team has a player that knows how to play defense, maybe Mikki Moore, maybe. If I'm wrong let me know, haha.

Leans:
Minny, Tor, NO, SA, GSW ... there's a chance I play way too many games tonight.
 
GL tonight ATL - kind of disagree on the bulls, but thats exactly what the books what I guess with the slow start the bulls have had and the quick start by the cips. on the kings/sonics over. all those leans look solid as well.
 
Hawks/Suns Over 208 (2.2 to win 2)
Hawks +200 v Suns (1u to win 2)

The Hawks haven't been able to run like they've wanted to all season the last two games, this is lucky because their desired style of offense is not being reflected in this total. The pace was crazy against the Mavs, it was chaotic/fast paced (still went over), the score should have been higher but there was an insane amount of turnovers and missed layups. The pace slowed dramatically the last two games, but that can be attributed to the Hawks PGs going against two of the best/most physical PGs in the NBA in Chauncey Billups and Jason Kidd. Steve Nash's defense will be a breath of fresh air and the Hawks should run like they have been planning all year. So, basically, playing against the Pistons/Nets have undervalued the Hawks pace, especially against the Suns.

Also, the Hawks step up when they play the Suns. In the last two years, they've gone 1-3 against them, but they only lost by more than 10pts once. They lost by 18, 4, won by 9, lost by 9 (revenge game). Thats pretty impressive for one of the bottom three teams in the last 2 years against a top 3 team. Joe Johnson has gone off for 20+ every game, he averaged 30ppg against them last year. Coming off the B2B, I like the younger Hawks to have the advantage of the older Suns. Amare should also be playing, and he had 47 against the Hawks in their last meeting. In their meetings last year, the total was an average of 226. That's despite the Hawks being the lowest scoring team in the NBA, now, they look to be a faster paced team, so I can only assume the score is at least equally high tonight.

I'm also on the ML with the Hawks needing this win so badly, coming off two straight losses. I can also tell you that Phillips will be crazy, it was crazy on opening night. So long as the Hawks show promise for this year, there should actually be a home court advantage in Atlanta. I worry about it being Amare's first game back, but they almost won when he went off for almost 50, so I'm not as worried about that. Plus, I think Horford will do a much better job against him, and might actually be able to get him into a little foul trouble, something Zaza couldn't do. The bigger reason I like this bet is that the line movement is definitely pointing towards the Hawks winning this game, much like the Mavs. 75%ish of the public is on the Suns tonight, AND Amare has been upgraded to probable, yet the line hasn't budged.
 
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Just kidding about the place being crazy ... no ones there. Wow, I overestimated Atl's excitement about this team. The opener was a sellout and it was noticeably loud. I don't get it.
 
HAWKS WIN!!!! .... Still lose money though, that sucks. JJ show 13% from the field. Suns shot 41% despite Nash scoring 34pts. Ughhh. Gotta chase with something later.
 
ATLHawksBandwagon said:
Just kidding about the place being crazy ... no ones there. Wow, I overestimated Atl's excitement about this team. The opener was a sellout and it was noticeably loud. I don't get it.
Click to expand...

It's probably going to take a good start to get people believing, much less spending money on the team.
 
Yea definitely, I was just basing that on the first game. From all I've read on message boards, the place was nuts. And they beat the Mavs and the Suns were in town, so I figured that'd be enough to get people there. But I spoke too soon also, the place looked filled after the first qt.
 
The Hawks played another close one. They opened the season at home with a 101-94 win over Dallas, then lost two straight road games at Detroit and New Jersey by a total of six points.
"We should be 4-0," Smith said.


After Horford made a mistake at the defensive end, coach Mike Woodson called the first-round pick over for a quick lecture. "He's a rookie," one fan yelled. Then another, clearly a fan of the Georgia Bulldogs, chimed in, "Come on, he's from Florida."
 
Atlanta Hawks/Boston Celtics Over 193 (2.2u to win 2)

I can't help myself from playing Hawks totals apparently. 2-2 on them so far, the Pistons loss was just a bad bet but that Suns loss the other day was a bit of a moose. When the Hawks score 105 and the Suns shoot 40%, it sucks. Anyway, for this game.

I've already decided to play unders when the Hawks are going up against a dominant PG like Billups or Kidd, that should be good. The Celtics obviously don't have that. They don't have much after the "Big 3." The Hawks on the other hand are one of the deepest teams in the East, maybe the NBA. So, basically, the only advantage the Hawks have in this game seems to be depth so their only chance is to run these old celtics off the court. I'm not saying they can do it, but they've gotta push the pace all game long. They'd get absolutely raped in a half court game. Unlike the Pho game, I'd expect them to maintain the fast pace even if their winning because the Celtics would make them pay for the slow pace, which the Suns couldn't do.

Should have a few more, took a couple days off the lick my wounds from this week.
 
Adding,

Knicks/Magic Under 201.5 (2.2u to win 2)

NO Hornets +3.5 v San Antonio Spurs (2.2u to win 2)

Sacramento Kings +6 v Cleveland Cavaliers (2.2 to win 2)

BOL everyone
 
BOL with the plays tonight. Hope my hornets can get the W, never really fair well against the spurs so this is a good test for us. Lets cash the cavs
 
Already 3 fouls this quarter on the Celtics, I think things are gonna pick up. The refs weren't calling shit so they were abusing the Hawks on defense.
 
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