NBA 08-09 Season Post Road-Trip ATS Results

[BetCrimes1984]

I gathered these figures (based on opening lines) together midway through the 06-07 season to test the desirability of the belief for fading teams in their 1st game back at home off longish road trips (longish meaning 4 or more games in length, since that usually translates to at least a weeks absence from ones own homecourt).

The clear message from these (fully updated) figures is it isn't the 1st game back @home where you want to fade a team, it's in their 2nd game back.

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The overall ATS figures (for the last 5 seasons) are as follows

For the 1st game off a 4+ game road trip - 175-171-12 ....... +4

For the 2nd game off a 4+ game road trip - 144-200-9 ........ -56


The ATS win % for the 1st game is 50.5% vs 41.9% for the 2nd game.


Of course the above figures are a lot more involved than what the surface facts provide. Different scenarios & teams means its not always that clean cut to say *never* bet a team in the 2nd game. On this basis, I've broken down each set of stats into the deeper scenarios, for 2 groupings: Teams coming off 4 game road trips, and teams coming off 5+ game road trips...

Note: where the All-Star break broke up a teams road trip, or broke up a team's return game/games, they have been excluded.

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Teams off 4 game road trips


1st Game Back - Eastern teams

Overall ............................... 39-36-4


As the Fav .......................... 28-23-2
As the Dog .......................... 11-13-2

vs Conference teams ............ 26-19-4
vs non-Conference teams ...... 13-17


vs Conf teams as a Fav ................. 21-13-2
vs Conf teams as a Dog .................. 5-6-2

vs non-Conf teams as a Fav ............ 7-10
vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ........... 6-7


1st Game Back - Western teams

Overall ............................... 52-40-4


As the Fav .......................... 35-30-4
As the Dog .......................... 17-10

vs Conference teams ............ 35-21-2
vs non-Conference teams ...... 17-19-2


vs Conf teams as a Fav .................. 21-17-2
vs Conf teams as a Dog ................. 14-4

vs non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 14-13-2
vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ............ 3-6

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2nd game Back - Eastern teams

Home game ............................... 19-27-1
Road game ................................ 15-15-1


@Home as a Fav ......................... 12-18-1
@Home as a Dog ........................... 7-9

on the Road as a Fav ..................... 5-1-1
on the Road as a Dog ................... 10-14


@Home vs Conf teams ................. 13-16
@Home vs non-Conf teams ............. 6-11-1

on the Road vs Conf teams ........... 13-13-1
on the Road vs non-Conf teams ....... 2-2


@Home vs Conf teams as a Fav ................. 8-11
@Home vs Conf teams as a Dog ................ 5-5

@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Fav .......... 4-7-1
@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 2-4

on the Road vs Conf teams as a Fav .......... 5-1-1
on the Road vs Conf teams as a Dog ......... 8-12

on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Fav .... ----
on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ... 2-2


2nd game Back - Western teams

Home game ................................ 27-42-1
Road game ................................. 14-11-1


@Home as a Fav ......................... 20-33
@Home as a Dog .......................... 7-9-1

on the Road as a Fav .................... 4-2
on the Road as a Dog .................. 10-9-1


@Home vs Conf teams .................. 16-31-1
@Home vs non-Conf teams ............ 11-11

on the Road vs Conf teams ............ 8-11-1
on the Road vs non-Conf teams ...... 6-0


@Home vs Conf teams as a Fav ............... 11-25
@Home vs Conf teams as a Dog ................ 5-6-1

@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Fav .......... 9-8
@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 2-3

on the Road vs Conf teams as a Fav .......... 2-2
on the Road vs Conf teams as a Dog ......... 6-9-1

on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Fav .... 2-0
on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ... 4-0

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Teams off 5+ game road trips


1st Game Back - Eastern teams

Overall ............................... 39-53-1


As the Fav .......................... 24-41-1
As the Dog .......................... 15-12

vs Conference teams ............. 29-36
vs non-Conference teams ....... 10-17-1


vs Conf teams as a Fav ................... 19-28
vs Conf teams as a Dog .................. 10-8

vs non-Conf teams as a Fav .............. 5-13-1
vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ............. 5-4


1st Game Back - Western teams

Overall ............................... 45-42-3


As the Fav .......................... 27-32-2
As the Dog .......................... 18-10-1

vs Conference teams ............ 27-24-1
vs non-Conference teams ...... 18-18-2


vs Conf teams as a Fav ................... 12-17-1
vs Conf teams as a Dog .................. 15-7

vs non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 15-15-1
vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ............ 3-3-1

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2nd game Back - Eastern teams

Home game ................................ 24-30-3
Road game ................................. 13-23


@Home as a Fav .......................... 13-25-2
@Home as a Dog .......................... 11-5-1

on the Road as a Fav ...................... 3-5
on the Road as a Dog .................... 10-18


@Home vs Conf teams ................... 11-23-3
@Home vs non-Conf teams ............. 13-7

on the Road vs Conf teams ............. 12-20
on the Road vs non-Conf teams ........ 1-3


@Home vs Conf teams as a Fav ................. 6-21-2
@Home vs Conf teams as a Dog ................ 5-2-1

@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 7-4
@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Dog .......... 6-3

on the Road vs Conf teams as a Fav ........... 3-4
on the Road vs Conf teams as a Dog .......... 9-16

on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Fav ..... 0-1
on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 1-2


2nd game Back - Western teams

Home game ................................ 19-38-2
Road game ................................. 13-14


@Home as a Fav ......................... 15-25-2
@Home as a Dog .......................... 4-13

on the Road as a Fav ..................... 3-3
on the Road as a Dog ................... 10-11


@Home vs Conf teams .................. 11-26-2
@Home vs non-Conf teams .............. 8-12

on the Road vs Conf teams ............. 9-12
on the Road vs non-Conf teams ....... 4-2


@Home vs Conf teams as a Fav ................. 9-16-2
@Home vs Conf teams as a Dog ................ 2-10

@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 6-9
@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Dog .......... 2-3

on the Road vs Conf teams as a Fav ........... 2-3
on the Road vs Conf teams as a Dog .......... 7-9

on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Fav .... 1-0
on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ... 3-2



Looking at the combined numbers in these categories that stay true in nature, no matter coming off a 4 or 5+ game road trip...

West - 1st game back as a Dog vs Conf Teams: 29-11

West - 2nd game back on the Road vs non-Conf teams: 10-2

West - 2nd game back @Home vs Conf Teams: 27-57-3


East - 2nd game back @Home as a Fav vs Conf Teams: 14-32-2

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Naturally there are some teams that seem to be either especially true to such trends, or defy them in an outstanding manner (the below figures are the 4 & 5+ game stats combined)...


Teams in keeping with the trends

Teams with the best 1st game records over the last 5 seasons -

New York ......... 10-2
Golden State .... 14-5-1
Memphis ............ 9-2-1
Denver .............. 9-3

Yes, believe it or not, the New York Knicks are assassins @home first up after 4+ game road trips.


Teams with the worst 2nd game records over the last 5 seasons -

Toronto ............ 2-11-1
Oklahoma .......... 4-14
Utah ................ 4-12
Portland ........... 3-10
Miami ............... 3-9
Sacramento ...... 3-9
Orlando ............ 4-10

These 7 teams are a combined 23-75-1 ATS in their 2nd games back off 4+ game road trips the last 5 seasons, a covering rate of just 23.5%.


Teams bucking the trends

Teams with the worst 1st game records over the last 5 seasons -

Boston.............. 3-10-1
Portland ........... 3-9-1
Washington ...... 3-7

Anyone think Boston maintains it this season? they went 0-3 ATS in this spot during last season's championship run - some things never change.


Teams with the best 2nd game records over the last 5 seasons -

Charlotte ......... 6-3
Memphis .......... 7-4
Minnesota ........ 6-4

Just "bad" teams to make up this list - bad teams obviously getting inflated lines.

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[BetCrimes1984]

The majority of teams do not win or lose both games ATS: they split results over the 2 games (splits incl a push result married w/either a win or loss)...

Off 4 game road trips (last 5 seasons)
Win both ......... 25.28%
Lose both ........ 30.45%
Split results ..... 44.27%

Off 5+ game road trips (last 5 seasons)
Win both ......... 20.67%
Lose both ........ 34.63%
Split results ..... 44.70%

What this means relative to looking to fade teams in their 2nd game off road trips is, is if they lose their 1st game back ATS, then there is an inertia operating against that team's potential failure in their 2nd game, because -

Only 32.58% of teams off a 4-5+ game road trip lose both of their subsequent games ATS.

Conversely, a team winning its 1st game back off such road trips further emphasizes their likelihood of dropping their 2nd game, because -

Only 22.95% of teams off a 4-5+ game road trip win both of their subsequent games ATS.


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These results will only be added collectively to the stats in the initial post at season's end.

Results based on opening lines (when thats a pick'em, the home team is made a -0.5 Fav).


SAC off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MEM - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs MIN - Won

PHX off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MEM - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs HOU - Lost

MEM off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs NYK - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs MIL - Lost

HOU off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs NOR - Won
2nd - Road Fav vs OKA - Won

ATL off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs NJY - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs IND - Lost

UTH off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs PHX - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs MIL - Won

DET off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs CLE - Won
2nd - Road Dog vs BOS - Lost

POR off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs CHC - Won
2nd - Road Fav vs SAC - Won

MIL off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs CLE - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs CHC - Won

GDS off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs MIA - Won
2nd - Road Dog vs HOU - Lost

CHC off a 7 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs PHI - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs MIL - Lost

NJY off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs WAS - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs MIN - Won

MIA off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs OKA - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs CHA - Lost

OKA off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs GDS - Lost
2nd - Home Dog vs MEM - Lost

LAC off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs ORL - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs POR - Won

POR off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs ORL - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs UTH - Lost

ATL off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs CLE - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs CHA - Lost

IND off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs GDS - Lost
2nd - Home Dog vs LAC - Lost

ORL off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs SAS - Won
2nd - Home Dog vs LAK - Won

NYK off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MIL - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs BOS - Lost

LAC off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs TOR - Lost
2nd - Home Dog vs DAL - Lost

CLE off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs HOU - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs WAS - Lost

LAK off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs BOS - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs GDS - Won

UTH off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs DAL - Won
2nd - Road Dog vs HOU - Won

SAC off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs TOR - Lost
2nd - Home Dog vs BOS - Lost

GDS off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs BOS - Won
2nd - Road Dog vs LAK - Lost

HOU off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs UTH - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs WAS - Lost

CHC off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs ORL - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs CLE - Lost

TOR off a 6 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs DEN - Lost
2nd - Home Dog vs HOU - Won

BOS off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs WAS - Won
2nd - Road Fav vs NYK - Lost

DEN off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs NOR - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs IND - Won

PHI off a 6 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs HOU - Won
2nd - Road Dog vs MIL - Won

SAC off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs MIA - Won
2nd - Home Dog vs DAL - Won

NOR off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs LAC - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs NYK - Lost

HOU off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs NYK - Won
2nd - Home Dog vs LAK - Lost

DET off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs CHA - Lost
2nd - Road Fav vs IND - Lost

IND off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs DET - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs TOR - Won

NYK off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs WAS - Won
2nd - Road Dog vs WAS - Lost

CHA off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs POR - Won
2nd - Home Dog vs SAS - Won

POR off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MIL - Won
2nd - Home Dog vs CLE - Lost

MIA off a 7 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs BOS - Lost
2nd - Home Dog vs ORL - Won

ORL off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs BOS - Lost
2nd - Road Fav vs MIA - Lost

WAS off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs PHX - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs MIA - Lost

CLE off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs SAC - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs ORL - Lost

NJY off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs TOR - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs ATL - Lost

DAL off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs GDS - Won
2nd - Road Dog vs MIA - Won

PHX off a 6 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs SAS - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs CHC - Lost

SAC off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs CHC - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs OKA - Won

CHA off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs ATL - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs MIA - Won

LAK off a 6 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs OKA - Lost
2nd - Road Fav vs UTH - Lost

CHC off a 7 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs DET - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs MIA - Lost

LAC off a 7 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs NYK - Won
2nd Game nullified by AS break

BOS off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs IND - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs DET - Lost

ATL off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MIA - Won
2nd - Home Dog vs CLE - Won

PHI off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs ORL - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs NOR - Lost

CHA off a 6 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs CHC - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs ATL - Won

DET off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs DEN - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs GDS - Won

CLE off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MIL - Won
2nd - Road Dog vs BOS - Lost

PHX off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs DAL - Lost
2nd - Home Dog vs CLE - Lost

WAS off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs NOR - Lost
2nd - Home Dog vs ORL - Lost

GDS off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs NJY - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs DAL - Won

NOR off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs HOU - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs MIN - Lost

MEM off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs POR - Lost
2nd - Home Dog vs DEN - Won

DAL off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs DET - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs ATL - Lost

UTH off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs WAS - Lost
2nd - Road Fav vs OKA - Won

NYK off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs NJY - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs SAC - Lost

NJY off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MIA - Won
2nd - Home Dog vs CLE - Lost

SAC off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs PHI - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs MEM - Lost

MIA off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MEM - Won
2nd - Road Dog vs IND - Lost

WAS off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs CHC - Won
2nd - Home Dog vs CHA - Won

POR off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs PHI - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs PHX - Won

PHI off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MIN - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs CHA - Lost

GDS off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MEM - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs SAC - Lost

MIL off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs LAK - Won
2nd - Road Dog vs PHI - Lost

MEM off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs WAS - Won
2nd - Home Dog vs DAL - Won

LAC off a 6 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs NOR - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs DEN - Lost

LAK off a 7 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs HOU - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs LAC - Lost

POR off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs LAK - Won
2nd - Road Fav vs LAC - Won

PHX off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MEM - Push
2nd - Home Fav vs GDS - Lost

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Summary for the 08-09 season -

Teams playing 1st off 4 game trips ...... 20-27-1
Teams playing 2nd off 4 game trips ..... 16-32

Teams playing 1st off 5+ game trips .... 17-14
Teams playing 2nd off 5+ game trips ... 15-15

Overall

Teams playing 1st off 4+ game trips .... 37-41-1
Teams playing 2nd off 4+ game trips ... 31-47
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[JPicks]

Toronto playing the 2nd game @Home as a Conf Fav off of a 5+ game road trip after winning their 1st game off the trip is my dream spot. Love this thread.

 

[edou1x]

really interresting thread here. By the same way i think it would be interesting to make a similar study on teams off a road trip ( 4-5 games) and see how they do ATS in their first game at home after this trip whether they win or lose their last road game.

My assumption here: i think it could be an interesting spot. if you are a good team ( lakers) that has won its last game on the road and has to face an "inferior team"( timberwolves at +14) at home, i would love to take the big points, because it appears to my mind as a good letdown spot, especially if you come back home from a different conference ( fatigue factor, happy to find again bed, home , family and weak team to face up). on the other hand, i think good teams bounce back well after a long road trip if they lose their last game on the road, they should be eager to bounce back strong in front of their home crowd to "forget" last night upset on the road.

Do you think my creteria could make sense?

 

[BetCrimes1984]

edou1x - Favs in their first game back off 4-5+ game trips are 114-126-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. Even if they're off a loss that number betrays the fact it's unlikely they'll be much of anything above .500 ATS overall.

Plus I'm more inclined to think how a team has gone over the whole road trip is more important than just the last game - if a team has a 7 game road trip, and loses the last game after winning the first 6, does that loss really mean that much to them? if a team loses the first 6 games and then wins the last one are they then suddenly happy with their trip entering their next home game?

I think the figures in the first post of this thread betray enough spots worth betting into without having the need to break down anything further, but if you want to, be my guest.:cheers:

 

[powerade]

nice thread and thanks for the solid info........

one questions: do you have the records from year to year? for example what was the number last year alone? and previous years alone?
if you have this, great and thanks....if not oh well

good luck this year

 

[BetCrimes1984]

powerade, I only have the last 2 seasons individual stats (the previous 3 I collected all at once, and didn't individually differentiate).

For the 07-08 season -

Teams playing 1st off 4 game trips ...... 14-12-1
Teams playing 2nd off 4 game trips ....... 9-18

Teams playing 1st off 5+ game trips .... 16-24
Teams playing 2nd off 5+ game trips ... 13-25-1

Overall

Teams playing 1st off 4+ game trips .... 30-36-1
Teams playing 2nd off 4+ game trips ... 22-43-1

For the 06-07 season -

Teams playing 1st off 4 game trips ...... 11-16
Teams playing 2nd off 4 game trips ..... 12-15

Teams playing 1st off 5+ game trips .... 15-22-2
Teams playing 2nd off 5+ game trips ... 14-24

Overall

Teams playing 1st off 4+ game trips .... 26-38-2
Teams playing 2nd off 4+ game trips ... 26-39

 

[powerade]

thanks man.....looks solid....
i'm thinking of mainly just fading the home faves on game 2.
Seems to be the best thing to fade, under your projected fave/dogs there are a possible 41 plays as of right now...

good stuff.....

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Yeah - I pretty much made those projections off of last seasons rosters, so a few more of those projections probably deserve question marks besides them but on the whole I'll think they'll stick.

And the numbers certainly show home favs in game 2s against conference opponents are definitely in a sick puppy spot, but remember the percentages are low (32.58, pretty much 1 in 3) for teams losing both games ATS off such road trips, so if a home fav for game 2 lost their first one back, just a warning to tread more lightly in backing against them in that second game.

 

[powerade]

i got something i found interesting....

last season dogs with 3 days rest were 8-27-2

 

[BetCrimes1984]

When I have time I'll go over 05-06 & 06-07 regarding that same situation, powerade.

 

[JPicks]

BC do you have the data from the last two years (post #2) still available? Wanted to check out a thought. Don't need the ATS results or who they played even. Just looking for when each team went on a road trip of 4+ games w/out having to look at each teams schedule. If so could you either post them here or PM them to me?

 

[BetCrimes1984]

JP - I don't have the dates in any online form. Unless someone else has, you're left with having to look at each team's schedule.

 

[JPicks]

Thanks anyway. Might track a year back and see whether the results are worth continuing looking into. :shake:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Actionman, I don't concern myself with (1st or 2nd) half bets, so I don't have any such stats or opinion to put forward regarding the phenomenon you point out.

 

[Actionman]

BC,

Sorry to hear that, but thanks for your fast response. There seems to be little or no information available on the 1H, 2H or 1st five innings. Years ago a sportsbook manager put out a book on the 2H lines in the NFL. It isn't around any more. Because this is pretty much untapped territory anyone tracking this info is probably better off not exposing it in a book, etc. because these bets have much lower limits.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

SAC off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MEM - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs MIN - Won

PHX off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MEM - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs HOU - Lost

MEM off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs NYK - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs MIL - Lost

HOU off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs NOR - Won
2nd - Road Fav vs OKA - Won

ATL off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs NJY - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs IND - Lost

UTH off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs PHX - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs MIL - Won

I post all these nice stats about how teams struggle to repeat the same result over their 1st 2 games back, and this season starts out with 6 straight, lol.

So I note here that the longest sequence of consecutive repeat result sets, that have occurred since I've been individually tracking these results over a full season (starting 06-07), have been -

9 instances (5 x losts, 4 x wins)

8 instances (7 x losts, 1 x wins)

4 instances (twice: 4 x losts/2 x losts, 2 x wins)

 

[edou1x]

BC just a question: what do you advise to do if a game falls in two contrarian systems (B2B vs 2 days of rest and "post road trip ATS).
for example, if detroit has to play the cavs at home with 2 days of rest with the cavs in B2B and by the same time detroit came from a road trip and has already won or lost the first game ATS off the trip?
i ask this because detroit is at the moment 2,5 point fav vs CLE at home,but if it was the second game for detroit off a 4 or 5 game trip we would have been in big trouble.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

edou1x - personally, I'd weigh more heavily the post road trip stats.:shake:

 

[Mo]

WOW I just reread this thread for the 3rd time there is a TON of information here. NICE JOB BC

 

[GWarner27]

BC,

you continue to amaze me with this stuff. If only i was clever enough to realize when this was happening, but if i understand this it seems LA should be a good fade against GS...

 

[BetCrimes1984]

bukii, GW:cheers:

 

[scofield]

i got something i found interesting....

last season dogs with 3 days rest were 8-27-2

do you have numbers for dogs who were playing at home or on the road ??

i make it for this season until 31th december and it gives that :
6-11 overall

2-6 @ home
4-5 on the road

so it seems to be more interesting @ home...

nothing for the favs with 3 days rest : 12-14

 

[scofield]

i made statistics for the 2 last seasons and this one until 31 december.

and it gives :

2006/2007 : 20 - 16 - 0
2007/2008 : 12 - 27 - 2
2008/2009 (->31/12) : 6 - 11 - 0

overall : 38 - 54 - 2 (41,3%)

@ home : 15 - 24 - 0
on the road : 23 - 31 - 2

enjoy.

 

[FRENCHBERNiE]

Hi BC1984... your work is very important for the hole community, thanks...

My english is not perfect so i don't understand all the subtleties...
i have one question about that :

The majority of teams do not win or lose both games ATS: they split results over the 2 games (splits incl a push result married w/either a win or loss)...

Off 4 game road trips (last 5 seasons)
Win both ......... 25.28%
Lose both ........ 30.45%
Split results ..... 44.27%

Off 5+ game road trips (last 5 seasons)
Win both ......... 20.67%
Lose both ........ 34.63%
Split results ..... 44.70%

What this means relative to looking to fade teams in their 2nd game off road trips is, is if they lose their 1st game back ATS, then there is an inertia operating against that team's potential failure in their 2nd game, because -

Only 32.58% of teams off a 4-5+ game road trip lose both of their subsequent games ATS.

Conversely, a team winning its 1st game back off such road trips further emphasizes their likelihood of dropping their 2nd game, because -

Only 22.95% of teams off a 4-5+ game road trip win both of their subsequent games ATS.

If a team off a 4-5+ game road trip win its 1st game back ATS how many chances does it have to win its 2nd game ?

I'm very interested by teams that loose their 1st game back ATS after a 5 game road trip ==> will they win ? How many chances ?

The real question is : when you say 44% split results, which part is about teams that win 1st game ATS and which part is about teams that loose 1st game ATS.

Ciao, BC1984...

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Essentially you're asking me for the specific percentages of the split combinations (win->lose & lose->win) which I don't have. I've long since chucked away my initial stats gathered when I made this thread 3 seasons ago (I only need to have accurate win/win & lose/lose figures to be able to find out what the split % results are).

 

[FRENCHBERNiE]

Thank you, BC1984...
I think it would be interesting to make statistics about that... just think about that... the team loose (or win) its first game back home ATS... what will be the following result ???
If the proportion is 33.33/66.66 (or 66.66/33.33), it's easy money don't you think ???

Good Luck to you !!

 

[SF_capper]

Should Denver be included? 8 game road trip, although it was interrupted by ASB

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Nope. If their post AS break schedule had been 4 or more road games, then they would. Otherwise the break is considered to have destroyed the effects of having so many consecutive road games, essentially rendering the stretch of games 2 separate road trips.

 

[Sports Reporter]

:cheers: