NBA 08-09 Home Rest vs B2Bs Results

BetCrimes1984

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
While this is a limited stat pool (only 3 seasons worth), the following numbers are consistent enough to suggest they can be trusted since from a reality/logical point-of-view, they make sense to be what they are.

They concern Home teams on exactly 2 days rest facing a road team off a game the night before (therefore being in a B2B situation - it doesn't matter if the road team played at home or away that previous game).
The line taken for the game is relevant: its the opening line as presented by DonBest (since all the stats I sourced are based on that number).
_______________________________________

Home teams in this scenario (2 days rest vs B2B teams) who...

- weren't on a 4 or more game losing streak entering the contest

- weren't off a win their previous game, when their record off their prior 5 SU wins to that was 1-4 or 0-5 SU (in other words, bring into the contest an inability in recent times to register consecutive SU wins)

- were playing this game before April the 1st

...and opened from a pick'em to -7.5,went

in 07-08 .... SU 15-10 .... ATS 12-13
in 06-07 .... SU 25-5_ .... ATS 22-6-2
in 05-06 .... SU 24-4_ .... ATS 20-8

Overall .... SU 64-19 (77.1 winning %) .... ATS 54-27-2 (66.6 winning %)
_______________________________________

How does this make sense? home teams as "the better side" generally speaking - getting the 0.5 to -7.5 lines mentioned - being rested more than the normal amount (1 day), but not so rested as to have engendered rust creeping in (3+ days), facing a "worse" (Dog) opponent with no rest at all, is a scenario that makes sense to produce its share of Fav results.
The most noticable aspect from 07-08's results (being the first season I subjected to individual game tracking) was that just 1 team's results (Milwaukee at 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS) skewered the figures into looking bad overall. Without that team's pathetic play, 07-08's numbers would've looked a lot healthier (13-8 SU & 12-9 ATS)


The records for Home dogs & Favs w/lines larger than -7.5 here weren't good: The best I see these particular results offering is simply the message to keep away from such contests altogether (at least from my pov). Certainly there's nothing attractive about these home doggies/heavy Favs.


I'll track this season's Fav results in the 2nd post of this thread.
 
This tracking record only concerns itself with teams who opened from a pick'em to -7.5
Click to expand...

* - means lost Straight-Up as well as ATS
________________________________________
Home teams first, Road teams second

(-3.0) Atlanta vs Philadelphia - Won

(-5.0) New Jersey vs Golden State - Lost*

(pick) Milwaukee vs Toronto - Lost*

(-4.5) Orlando vs Philadelphia - Won

(-6.0) LA Clippers vs Sacramento - Lost*

(-4.0) Detroit vs Cleveland - Won

(-5.5) Miami vs Indiana - Won

(-4.0) Houston vs San Antonio - Won

(-1.0) LA Clippers vs Miami - Push

(-3.0) Houston vs Denver - Won

(-3.5) Orlando vs San Antonio - Won

(-2.0) New Orleans vs LA Lakers - Lost*

(-4.5) Utah vs Dallas - Won

(-1.0) Minnesota vs Milwaukee - Won

(-1.0) San Antonio vs LA Lakers - Push

(-5.5) Atlanta vs Toronto - Lost

(-1.0) Utah vs Cleveland - Lost*

(-7.5) Orlando vs Denver - Lost*

(-7.5) Utah vs Houston - Lost

(-6.0) New Orleans vs Dallas - Won

(-4.0) New York vs Charlotte - Lost*

(-6.5) Phoenix vs Philadelphia - Won

(-7.0) Portland vs Phoenix - Won

(-6.0) Portland vs Utah - Won

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 
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weren't off a win their previous game, when their record off their prior 5 SU wins to that was 1-4 or 0-5 SU (in other words, bring into the contest an inability in recent times to register consecutive SU wins)

What? Prefer some clarification here. So the home team I'm to bet on has to be off a loss and at best 1-4 SU off their previous 5 wins?
 
horses - The home team to consider betting on does not have to be off a loss. This stipulation only applies if they enter this Rest vs B2B situation off a win.

Now if they do enter such a situation off a win, then the stipulation applies to their recent SU winning results (going back 5 total instances): how have they done SU off their last 5 SU wins? if their record off their last 5 SU wins is 1-4 or 0-5 SU, then they are not qualifying under this trend.

For example, their record over recent games entering this situational spot might be...

WWLLLLWWWLLLW -> X

...so, off their previous 5 SU wins (the figures in red highlighting all games off those last 5 SU wins) this team is 3-2 SU. A team with such a record entering this spot (X) is obviously not excluded because of this stipulation.


But a team with the following record...

WLLWWLLWLLLWLW -> X

...would be a team eliminated because of this stipulation, since (as highlighted in red) their last 5 results off a SU win = 1-4 SU.


The point of this stipulation is to avoid teams with a somewhat lengthy recent tendency to fail off a SU win, when they come into this very spot off a SU win.
 
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BC, Appreciate the explanation. I gotcha now.

Also appreciate all the good work you put into these trends/systems.
 
BC, i think you have forgotten today's matchup between HOU and DEN. Hou had 2 days of rest and denver is in B2B. HOU opened as a 3 point fav.
 
Thanks, edou1x. I hadn't marked Den as a B2B game today (prob due to it being on a new sheet, and so was apart from yesterday's games), hence my overlooking it.
 
"- weren't off a win their previous game, when their record off their prior 5 SU wins to that was 1-4 or 0-5 SU (in other words, bring into the contest an inability in recent times to register consecutive SU wins)"

hello,

i'm a french man who came here because of an edou1x post with this address site on a french forum.
i read all your topics and i find it very interesting !

but this point, i think i didn't understood very well :
-it means that this team must have a loss just before if they have 1-4 SU or 0-5 S-U to be eligible ? so if the team has 2-3 SU, 3-2 SU, 4-1 SU or 5-0 S-U we don't care if their previous game is a loss or win ?


"WWLLLLWWWLLLW -> X"

before to select a team we must always look to their SU win ?

"in 07-08 .... SU 15-10
in 06-07 .... SU 25-5_
in 05-06 .... SU 24-4_ "

i don't understand these SU ? how do you calculate it ?


"(-???) Houston vs Milwaukee -"

milwaukee is a B2B team, ok but Houston is a 1 day rest team and not 2 days rest team because they will play on 29th Vs Washington and there is this match on the 31th ? so this match is not eligible ? exact ? or we can take the team with 1 or 2 days rest ?

thank you for your answers.
 
scofield - first, to avoid any confusion/clutter, you're right. Just looked at my sheets and because of a certain way I've done things I misread Houston as having 2 days rest.


secondly, regarding this stipulation you're having difficulty understanding.

The first thing to look at is to see if the Fav/home team we are concerned with here is off a win heading into this Rest/B2B contest. If they're not, then you can ignore this stipulation. But if they are off a win, then what you are looking for is how this team has performed off their last 5 individual wins. In the example I gave and you repasted...

"WWLLLLWWWLLLW -> X"

...I highlighted in red the results in this hypothetical sequence off that Fav/Home team's last 5 wins (which I've underlined here as well). So looking at this sequence, the team concerned has a win entering this Rest/B2B game (represented as X). Going back over that team's previous 5 wins (underlined W's) and then looking at their subsequent results in the games following those wins (highlighted in red) you can see this team has gone 3-2 SU, therefore would not be eliminated from this Rest/B2B spot.

The idea of this stipulation is to be aware of not backing teams who have been performing inconsistently in recent times (ie, not being able to back up a win with another win) when such a team enters this spot off a win.

These figures -

"in 07-08 .... SU 15-10
in 06-07 .... SU 25-5_
in 05-06 .... SU 24-4_ "

have nothing to do with what you're inquiring about, if it wasn't by now clear to you.
 
ok thank you for explanation.

but i observed last matchs this season, and 2 matchs are difficult to understand for me (sorry for my english and my difficulties to understand...) :

MIAMI (-5,5) - INDIANA : WIN

we have this sequence before :
LWLWWLWLWLWL (MONEY LINE) = SU (1-4)
LWLWWPLLWLWL (ATS) = SU (1-3-1)

last victory = L (is it important Win or Loss before the match ?)

2nd Match :

INDIANA ( -3,5) - New JERSEY :

LLWLLLWLLWLLLLLLWWLW (Money Line) = SU (1-4)
WLLWLLWLWLWWLW (ATS) = SU (1-4)

last victory = W

these 2 matchs are 1-4 SU but one of these match have a Loss before the match and the other has a win .

so your rules number 2 is not respected, so these 2 matchs are not eligibles for me , not ??


"in 07-08 .... SU 15-10 .... ATS 12-13
in 06-07 .... SU 25-5_ .... ATS 22-6-2
in 05-06 .... SU 24-4_ .... ATS 20-8"


for SU 15-10 (for example), i mean 15 is for team with positive SU (3-2 or 4-0 for example) and 10 for negative SU(2-3) ?

thank you.

ps : note that for the match CLIPPERS (-1) - MIAMI : PUSH the spread is +2 and not -1 on covers page probably because the line moved after you take this match. it means also that the bet is won .
 
Scofield -

Miami entered their game w/Indiana off a loss, so this stipulation didn't apply.

Indiana did enter their game w/New Jersey off a win & they were 1-4 SU off their previous 5 wins, but for some reason (I'm guessing Xmas activities at the time since it was Xmas eve for me that day) I didn't record their prior game vs Philly as a SU win (irking me on a number of levels). Which means you are totally correct that that game did not qualify for this spot, thanks for bringing it to my attention.
My apologies to anyone who used this thread as a cue for that game.

Also I should note you listed ATS figures with the 2 instances you highlighted. This stipulation has nothing to do w/how a team has done ATS. It's only concerned with how they've done recently SU off a SU win.


in 07-08 .... SU 15-10 .... ATS 12-13
in 06-07 .... SU 25-5_ .... ATS 22-6-2
in 05-06 .... SU 24-4_ .... ATS 20-8
Click to expand...

These are the results for how home favs have done vs B2B teams in this situational spot over the last 3 seasons. These figures have no bearing on anything to do with this season, nothing at all to do with any particular stipulation I've listed. They're just a record of previous seasons results.


And finally I have LA opening -1 for that game vs Miami. All the lines I list are based as close as I can to what they opened as. And while you note that LA would've been a winner for anyone taking the closing line, going on a closing line they wouldnt have qualified for this spot because they were a home dog at that stage, and this is only concerned with home favs.
 
ok i see now the difference between the match of MIAMI-INDIANA who is eligible with a 1-4 SU because the previous match of MIAMI is a loss and INDIANA-NEW JERSEY who is not eligible with the same SU (1-4) because previous match of indiana is a win. thanks a lot.

ok for the example of clippers and ok for the ATS which don't care.

"These are the results for how home favs have done vs B2B teams in this situational spot over the last 3 seasons. These figures have no bearing on anything to do with this season, nothing at all to do with any particular stipulation I've listed. They're just a record of previous seasons results."
"in 07-08 .... SU 15-10 .... ATS 12-13
in 06-07 .... SU 25-5_ .... ATS 22-6-2
in 05-06 .... SU 24-4_ .... ATS 20-8"

sorry, i understood that this is the results for the last 3 seasons. ok for ATS 12-13 , and ATS 22-6-2 and ATS 20-8 but i didn't understand what mean SU 15-10, SU 25-5 and SU 24-4 ? how do you calculate it ? can you make me an example ?

i note that the next match could be CHICAGO - SACRAMENTO (depends on the next results).
 
"in 07-08 .... SU 15-10 .... ATS 12-13
in 06-07 .... SU 25-5_ .... ATS 22-6-2
in 05-06 .... SU 24-4_ .... ATS 20-8"

sorry, i understood that this is the results for the last 3 seasons. ok for ATS 12-13 , and ATS 22-6-2 and ATS 20-8 but i didn't understand what mean SU 15-10, SU 25-5 and SU 24-4 ? how do you calculate it ? can you make me an example ?
Click to expand...

Scofield - It's simply recording how the Fav fared straight-up in the same games that produced the ATS figures. While this thread is interested in recording ATS results, I've simply also noted how the Fav fared SU as well.

In 07-08, the Fav went 12-13 ATS. In those 25 games in this spot that produced those ATS figures, they went 15-10 SU - so while they had a negative number overall for ATS production (solely due to Milwaukee's performances), they still won 60% of those matches SU.
 
"in 07-08 .... SU 15-10 .... ATS 12-13
in 06-07 .... SU 25-5_ .... ATS 22-6-2
in 05-06 .... SU 24-4_ .... ATS 20-8"

ok i think i understood very well. thank you !
so SU 15-10 means that the fav has 15 SU win and 10 SU loss for the 25 matchs in 07/08 while it's 12-13 ATS.
that's it ?
 
hello betcrimes,

there are 3 matchs for this system this night :

LA CLIPPERS (+4,5) . not eligible !
SAN ANTONIO (-2,5). Eligible

and GOLDEN (-5,5) . golden is 1-4 SU win and they have a win last match. so it's not eligible. that's right ?
 
i'm sorry but i don't think you can count SA-1 as a "push". Opening line at betcris was -1,5 and closing line was -3 so i don't know where you saw SA-1
 
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edou1x - as reported at Donbest. It's not unusual for the actual opening line to be unavailable to the general public through various books, it all depends on how far in advance the book concerned takes betting on a particular option (obviously the later they open things up, they're going to relate a line to where it currently sits, not as it was upon it's actual opening). I don't use betcris, I have no idea how far in advance they open up betting on a contest. But even if they do open very early as a norm, that doesn't mean they're not free to set their own line (ie, adding a hook).

I noted the -1 here in this thread well in advance of the game concerned.
 
BC - I have to agree here with edou1x. As far as I know, Pinnacle and The Greek are the first to publish overnight lines and both had -2 or -2.5. If there is some local bookie publishing -1, that can't count. The most important thing in my opinion in stats, in order to rely on them, is that they are correct. The lines published in LVSC are not matching many times the real lines in the world so you can't rely on them. There is no question that this one should be counted as a loss in order to keep the stats geniune.
Best of luck!
 
i wouldn't make him change the numbers because then you guys are doubting every line he's used.

...keep it going BC
 
divol - Donbest isn't representing the lines from local bookies. And as GW noted, if you want to me ignore Db's representation of that line, then all the others become in question as well, like the Clippers -1: that rapidly turned into various -(1, 2, 3) lines for Miami, I doubt anyone (even if they wanted to) had access to the Clips -1. but of course such a change would immediately nullify the Clips being represented here, because that change turned them into a Home Dog.
As this relates to using what's presented here for betting purposes, I'd always advise to be careful betting into a line that's moved significantly (anything above 1.5 pts, which obviously the Spurs line did. In their case if I'd had to prebet that game instead of having the live betting option I actually capitalised on, I'd have gone with the ml over the spread which is my attitude to very low spreads that have moved significantly against me, but still leave a decent enough ml).
 
hello BC1984,

for the match of dallas yesterday, i observ that the rules number 1 is not good because of 4 loosing streak before the match.
 
i think yo have forgotten again to include UTA-2,5 vs CLE to day since CLE is in B2B after the 106-105 win over GS, and Utah has had 2 days of rest after having played Houston on 01/21/2009
 
hello,

for the match NEW ORLEANS - CHICAGO. i observed that N Orleans had only 1 day rest and not 2.
ok for tonight with UTAH -2,5
 
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