NBA 08-09 230/100-100 Results

BetCrimes1984

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
Briefly, for those unfamiliar with this -

Early in the 05-06 season, I noticed that teams coming off being involved
in a game that totaled 230+ points, where both teams scored 100+ points individually, had a seeming predisposition to deliver Under results in their next game. That early season Under bias evened out more as the season went on, but there remained specific spots where Under results were delivered more readily (in some cases, emphatically).

The bottom line has been teams playing first following such a game deliver Under more readily than teams playing second. It makes sense this be so since playing second usually means at least 1 days extra rest over the team playing first.

What's below are those stats from last 2 seasons worth of tracking and the tracking of stats for this season.

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First, the exceptions. The following teams stats I have excluded from the overall records to date (or from the beginning of this current season - italics) and will exclude from this season (unless they demonstrate both in their general total results and through their early, if any, 230/100-100 results, that they have adopted a less frenetic style of play. This is something that may well happen with Phoenix, for example). They have shown a clear bias to buck this trend off such games, which will come as no suprise given their playing styles....

Phoenix
Memphis
Milwaukee
Golden State
Washington
Denver
Sacramento
LA Lakers
Utah
Minnesota
Orlando
Indiana
Toronto
New York
Oklahoma
LA Clippers

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All results based on opening lines & regulation scores.

Opponent Results* for 05-06/06-07/07-08


Playing First, @Home

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 9-12 ........... U/O 8-2 ...... vs Conference Opponents
U/O 8-4 ............. U/O 3-2 ...... vs non-Conference Opponents


Playing First, on the Road

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 11-7 ........... U/O 9-5 ...... vs Conference Opponents
U/O 8-5 ............. U/O 5-0 ...... vs non-Conference Opponents


Playing Second, @Home

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 13-12 ......... U/O 8-8 ...... vs Conference Opponents
U/O 7-4 ............. U/O 2-4 ...... vs non-Conference Opponents


Playing Second, on the Road

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 13-10 ......... U/O 6-3 ...... vs Conference Opponents
U/O 3-7 ............. U/O 4-2 ...... vs non-Conference Opponents

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Sequence Results* for 05-06/06-07/07-08

Off a Win, @Home

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 6-7 ............. U/O 6-2 ...... playing first
U/O 12-9 ........... U/O 3-5 ...... playing second


Off a Win, on the Road

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 9-4 ............. U/O 9-3 ...... playing first
U/O 11-8 ........... U/O 4-4 ...... playing second


Off a Loss, @Home

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 11-9 ........... U/O 5-3 ...... playing first
U/O 8-7 ............. U/O 7-6 ...... playing second


Off a Loss, on the Road

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 10-8 ........... U/O 5-2 ...... playing first
U/O 5-9 ............. U/O 6-1 ...... playing second

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Margin Results* for 05-06/06-07/07-08

Playing First ........... Playing Second
U/O 16-7 .............. U/O _9-10 ........ Off a 1-3 pt margin result
U/O 18-12 ............ U/O 19-11 ........ Off a 4-6 pt margin result
U/O 11-10 ............ U/O 12-17 ........ Off a 7-9 pt margin result
U/O 16-8 .............. U/O 16-12 ........ Off a 10+ pt margin result


*Pushes & Repeat match-up results (where the same 2 teams meet each other in their next game off such a result) are not recorded here.
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Results for this season

All results based on opening lines & regulation scores.

Opponent Results* for 08-09


Playing First, @Home

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 4-2 ............. U/O 1-0 ...... vs Conference Opponents
U/O 1-0 ............. U/O 3-2 ...... vs non-Conference Opponents


Playing First, on the Road

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 2-1 ............. U/O 2-0 ...... vs Conference Opponents
U/O 0-3 ............. U/O 2-0 ...... vs non-Conference Opponents


Playing Second, @Home

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 4-3 ............. U/O 1-0 ...... vs Conference Opponents
U/O 1-0 ............. U/O 1-0 ...... vs non-Conference Opponents


Playing Second, on the Road

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 2-1 ............. U/O 1-1 ...... vs Conference Opponents
U/O 2-2 ............. U/O 1-0 ...... vs non-Conference Opponents

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Sequence Results* for 08-09

Off a Win, @Home

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 4-1 ............. U/O 4-2 ...... playing first
U/O 3-3 ............. U/O --- ....... playing second


Off a Win, on the Road

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 2-3 ............. U/O 2-0 ...... playing first
U/O 3-2 ............. U/O 1-1 ...... playing second


Off a Loss, @Home

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 1-1 ............. U/O --- ....... playing first
U/O 2-0 ............. U/O 2-0 ...... playing second


Off a Loss, on the Road

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 0-1 ............. U/O 2-0 ...... playing first
U/O 1-1 ............. U/O 1-0 ...... playing second

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Margin Results* for 08-09

Playing First ........ Playing Second
U/O 3-2 ............. U/O 1-1 ........ off a 1-3 pt margin result
U/O 3-4 ............. U/O 5-1 ........ off a 4-6 pt margin result
U/O 2-1 ............. U/O 2-1 ........ off a 7-9 pt margin result
U/O 7-1 ............. U/O 5-4 ........ off a 10+ pt margin result


*Pushes & Repeat match-up results are not recorded here.
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08-09 Individual results tracking

All results based on opening lines & regulation scores

NYK 120-115 MIA
1st - NYK @ PHI --> Under
2nd - MIA @ CHA -> Under

MIN 125-129 SAS (2OT)
1st - SAS vs MIA -> Under
2nd - MIN @ SAC -> Over

SAC 121-109 MIN
1st - MIN @ POR --> Under
2nd - SAC vs GDS -> Under

MEM 103-132 NYK
1st - NYK vs OKA --> Over
2nd - MEM vs MIL -> Under (in regulation)

NYK 114-124 DAL (OT)
1st - DAL @ CHA --> Under
2nd - NYK @ BOS -> Over

TOR 127-129 NJY (OT)
1st - NJY vs LAC --> Over
2nd - TOR vs BOS -> Over

NYK 122-117 WAS
1st - WAS vs GDS -> Over
2nd - NYK vs CLE --> Over

BOS 119-111 GDS
1st - BOS vs PHI --> Under
2nd - GDS @ CLE -> Under

SAC 114-116 NJY (OT)
1st - SAC @ UTH -> Over
2nd - NJY @ UTH -> Under

NYK 138-125 GDS
1st - GDS vs MIA -> Over
2nd - NYK vs POR -> Under

GDS 129-130 MIA (OT)
1st - MIA @ UTH --> Under
2nd - GDS @ HOU -> Over

IND 118-117 LAK
1st - LAK @ PHI --> Over
2nd - IND @ BOS -> Over

HOU 131-112 GDS
1st - GDS @ SAS --> Over
2nd - HOU @ MEM -> Over

IND 117-122 BOS (OT)
1st - IND @ TOR ---> Under
2nd - BOS @ WAS -> Over

DAL 126-133 SAS (2 OT)
1st - SAS vs ATL --> Under
2nd - DAL vs CHA -> Under

PHX 125-110 MIL
1st - MIL @ GDS --> Over
2nd - PHX @ LAK -> Over

NJY 109-121 NYK
1st - NJY vs TOR -> Under
2nd - NYK @ SAC -> Under

POR 112-120 LAC (2 OT)
1st - LAC vs HOU --> Under
2nd - POR vs SAC -> Under

LAK 116-114 NYK
1st - NYK vs MIL -> Under
2nd - LAK @ MIA -> Under

IND 127-120 GDS
1st - IND vs LAC --> Under (in regulation)
2nd - GDS @ ATL -> Over

POR 124-119 PHX
1st - PHX vs DEN -> Under
2nd - POR @ DEN -> Under

BOS 126-108 CHC
1st - CHC vs UTH --> Over
2nd - BOS vs NYK -> Over

DET 114-120 UTH (2 OT)
1st - UTH @ CHC -> Over
2nd - DET @ ATL -> Under

ATL 129-117 CHC
1st - ATL vs DEN -> Under
2nd - CHC @ NJY -> Under

HOU 120-115 UTH (2 OT)
1st - HOU vs WAS -> Under
2nd - UTH vs PHI --> Over

LAK 130-113 GDS
1st - GDS vs TOR -> Over
2nd - LAK vs UTH -> Over

OKA 120-122 DEN
1st - DEN vs NOR --> Over
2nd - OKA vs NYK -> Under

IND 122-117 SAC
1st - SAC @ NJY -> Under
2nd - IND @ DEN -> Over

DEN 135-115 IND
1st - DEN vs MIA -> Over
2nd - IND @ PHX -> Push

UTH 119-114 GDS
1st - UTH vs NOR -> Over
2nd - GDS vs LAK -> Under

SAC 115-119 MIA (OT)
1st - SAC vs DAL -> Under
2nd - MIA @ LAK -> Over

LAK 121-119 IND
1st - IND @ GDS --> Over
2nd - LAK vs MIA -> Over

GDS 120-117 IND
1st - IND @ UTH --> Over
2nd - GDS vs SAC -> Under (in regulation)

UTH 120-113 IND
1st - IND vs DET --> Under (in regulation)
2nd - UTH @ OKA -> Over

SAC 107-139 ORL
1st - SAC @ GDS -> Under (in regulation)
2nd - ORL @ LAK -> Under

NYK 128-122 WAS
1st - WAS vs NYK -> Under

GDS 133-135 SAC (3 OT)
1st - SAC vs MIL --> Over
2nd - GDS vs ATL -> Over

DEN 119-113 PHX (OT)
1st - PHX vs MIN --> Under
2nd - DEN vs ORL -> Under

SAC 122-129 MIL
1st - MIL @ LAC --> Over
2nd - SAC @ DEN -> Under

GDS 119-114 ATL
1st - ATL vs TOR --> Under
2nd - GDS vs WAS -> Over

TOR 113-117 PHX
1st - TOR @ ATL --> Under
2nd - PHX @ BOS -> Under

GDS 121-122 OKA
1st - GDS vs CLE -> Under
2nd - OKA @ LAC -> Over

ORL 135-111 IND
1st - IND vs MIL --> Under
2nd - ORL vs CLE -> Under

MIN 119-132 LAK
1st - LAK @ MEM -> Over
2nd - MIN @ BOS -> Over

IND 113-122 NYK
1st - NYK vs LAK -> Over
2nd - IND vs MIN -> Over

POR 122-108 UTH
1st - POR @ NOR --> Under
2nd - UTH vs CHA -> Under

PHX 111-122 CHC
1st - PHX vs SAC -> Under
2nd - CHC @ HOU -> Over

SAC 122-118 OKA (OT)
1st - SAC @ PHX --> Under
2nd - OKA vs DEN -> Over

NYK 117-126 LAK
1st - LAK @ TOR --> Over
2nd - NYK vs CLE -> Over

MEM 105-126 LAC
1st - LAC @ ATL ---> Over
2nd - MEM vs TOR -> Under

MIL 121-126 DET (OT)
1st - DET vs PHX -> Over
2nd - MIL vs HOU -> Over

WAS 119-117 IND
1st - WAS @ ATL -> Under
2nd - IND vs CLE -> Under

MIL 124-112 HOU
1st - MIL vs IND ---> Over
2nd - HOU vs SAC -> Under

GDS 144-127 NYK
1st - NYK @ LAC --> Over
2nd - GDS vs POR -> Under

MIL 122-110 IND
1st - IND vs PHI --> Under
2nd - MIL @ DET -> Under

LAC 128-124 NYK (OT)
1st - NYK vs SAS -> Under (in regulation)
2nd - LAC @ PHX -> Over

PHX 140-100 LAC
1st - LAC vs PHX -> Over

GDS 121-129 LAK
1st - LAK vs NOR --> Under (in regulation)
2nd - GDS vs OKA -> Over

LAC 119-142 PHX
1st - PHX vs OKA -> Over
2nd - LAC @ POR -> Under

PHX 140-118 OKA
1st - OKA @ GDS --> Over
2nd - PHX vs BOS -> Over

GDS 133-120 OKA
1st - GDS vs LAC -> Under
2nd - OKA vs LAK -> Under

PHX 108-128 BOS
1st - BOS @ DEN -> Under
2nd - PHX vs CHA -> Under

MIL 120-117 DEN
1st - DEN vs BOS -> Under
2nd - MIL @ DAL -> Over

NYK 123-119 IND
1st - IND vs MEM -> Under
2nd - NYK vs ORL -> Over

LAK 132-106 PHX
1st - LAK @ DEN --> Under
2nd - PHX vs TOR -> Over

PHX 133-113 TOR
1st - PHX vs LAK --> Under
2nd - TOR @ DAL -> Under

MIA 120-115 NYK
1st - MIA vs CLE --> Over
2nd - NYK vs ATL -> Push

MIA 135-129 PHX
1st - MIA @ TOR --> Over
2nd - PHX @ HOU -> Over

MIL 127-120 GDS
1st - MIL vs NYK --> Over
2nd - GDS vs NJY -> Over

MIA 130-127 CHC (2 OT)
1st - CHC @ ORL --> Under
2nd - MIA vs BOS -> Over

MIL 112-120 NYK
1st - NYK @ DET --> Under (in regulation)
2nd - MIL vs NOR -> Under

PHX 117-122 DAL
1st - DAL @ POR --> Under
2nd - PHX vs CLE -> Over

PHX 111-119 CLE
1st - CLE @ SAC --> Over
2nd - PHX vs OKA -> Under

SAC 123-126 CLE (OT)
1st - CLE vs NYK --> Under
2nd - SAC @ WAS -> Push

MIA 140-129 UTH (3 OT)
1st - MIA @ PHI --> Under
2nd - UTH @ ORL -> Under

GDS 130-154 PHX
1st - GDS vs LAC -> Over
2nd - PHX vs PHI -> Over

CHC 127-121 BOS
1st - BOS vs MIA -> Over
2nd - CHC @ OKA -> Under

GDS 127-120 LAC
1st - LAC vs WAS -> Over
2nd - GDS @ LAK -> Under

LAC 123-108 WAS
1st - LAC @ DET ---> Over
2nd - WAS vs PHX -> Under

PHX 126-116 PHI
1st - PHI @ GDS ---> Over
2nd - PHX vs WAS -> Under

GDS 119-111 PHI
1st - GDS @ NOR -> Under
2nd - PHI @ SAC -> Over

PHX 118-115 DEN
1st - DEN @ NOR --> Under
2nd - PHX vs UTH -> Over

PHX 118-114 UTH
1st - PHX @ POR --> Over
2nd - UTH vs PHX -> Under

DAL 128-106 GDS
1st - DAL vs DEN --> Under
2nd - GDS @ DEN -> Over

NYK 135-140 LAC (OT)
1st - NYK vs NOR -> Under
2nd - LAC @ SAS -> Over

POR 129-109 PHX
1st - PHX @ UTH --> Under
2nd - POR vs MEM -> Under

IND 124-115 WAS
1st - IND vs CHC ---> Under
2nd - WAS @ MEM -> Over

TOR 134-129 CHC (OT)
1st - CHC @ IND --> Under
2nd - TOR @ ORL -> Under

SAC 126-118 PHX
1st - SAC vs NOR --> Over
2nd - PHX vs HOU -> Under

GDS 143-141 SAC (OT)
1st - SAC @ PHX --> Over
2nd - GDS vs NOR -> Under

IND 121-126 SAS
1st - SAS @ CLE -> Over
2nd - IND @ OKA -> Over

PHX 139-111 SAC
1st - PHX @ DAL --> Over
2nd - SAC @ GDS -> Under

DAL 140-116 PHX
1st - PHX @ NOR --> Under
2nd - DAL vs UTH -> Over

IND 130-101 TOR
1st - IND @ ATL ---> Over
2nd - TOR vs WAS -> Under

DEN 122-112 OKA
1st - DEN @ LAK --> Over
2nd - OKA vs CHA -> Under

DAL 130-101 UTH
1st - DAL vs NOR --> Under
2nd - UTH @ SAS -> Over

ATL 122-118 IND
1st - IND vs DET -> Push
2nd - ATL vs MIA -> Under

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BC, I was wondering if you have thought about creating a higher mark for your criteria for this thread, such as a 240/105/105 rule? With scoring going from 93.4 ppg (in '03-'04) to 99.9 last year I was curious if it has had any affect on the # of possible plays that show up.
 
I'll go through last years numbers later and see what a different slant provides, but the point of my extended exclusion list is certain teams are responsible for the bulk of that scoring increase. To change the criteria would start to eliminate teams like boston with its current defense from ever likely appearing. Better to eliminate teams than change up the threshold for appearing.
 
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BetCrimes1984 said:
I'll go through last years numbers later and see what a different slant provides, but the point of my extended exclusion list is certain teams are responsible for the bulk of that scoring increase. To change the criteria would start to eliminate teams like boston with its current defense from ever likely appearing. Better to eliminate teams than change up the threshold for appearing.
Click to expand...

I can agree with that. I certainly am not asking you to change your system. It was more or less asked because I assumed you already had the answer and your response honestly is the answer. No reason to look at last year's #'s. :shake:
 
Took me no time at all, JP. Didn't look for a diff. slant before looking at what last season specifically provided, which was the following -

off normal games, U/O 10-6 playing 1st vs U/O 10-10 playing 2nd

off OT games, U/O 8-2 playing 1st vs U/O 5-4 playing 2nd

Even with the increase in scoring when the target is always the teams playing 1st (due to the less rest w/which to recover aspect), pretty healthy numbers (U/O 18-8).
 
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Just a note about New York, given they're the first team to be playing 1st off a 230/100-100 result this season.

While since 05-06 New York has been pretty damn solid in producing Under results off 230/100-100 OT games (6-2 - 3-0 when playing 1st), they were 2-0 to Over last season (thou both times playing 2nd) when off a regulation 230/100-100 game after going 4-1 to Under off a regulation 230/100-100 game between the 05-06/06-07 seasons.

They're one team I have an eye on to possibly eliminate from recording results for. As it stands now, my attitude towards them is only to care to consider them via this trend when they're off an OT affair.
 
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just a question: "margin results " is the final margin between the total set by oddsmakers and the total scored or it is the margin between 230 pts scored and above?
 
edou1x - it refers to the margin result of the score from the 230 game itself, ie. New York's game was decided by 5 points (120-115), so New York is playing 1st off a 4-6 point margin game.
 
Rather spectacular 11-2 to Under start for the 230/100-100 games this season. Was someone saying something about changing up the criteria?
 
what are you speaking about? according to your post" 08-09 individual results tracking, the UNDER is 10-8 for teams playing first after a game of 230 and more points.
Where does your 11-2 come from???
Thanks.
 
11-2 comes from the games whose results I record (both 1st & 2nd games, the light & dark green results). Your mistake is to include teams who have been "banned" from having their results recorded (the reason for the red highlighted type).
 
You'd be right, but unfortunately ATL has had an avalanche of recent Under results and I've been expecting an Over correction to arrive for them. Obviously their last game could be seen to be a signal that correction is about to start, which means I'm of the view now is the time to forget about playing Unders in Hawks games for awhile.

And Chicago is playing 2nd on the road off a loss, which for the non OT game situations is 9-5 to Over going back to 05-06.

In short I'd be suprised if at least 1 of these 2 spots didn't produce an Over result.
 
I would say the Under in NJ looks best. Both teams only talked about their woeful defenses in the press after their last games. Bulls were lucky to score 117 in their last game, they just shot out of their minds, but didnt even take that many shots. Bulls team total under 102 looks good with Deng and Gooden out, but really depends on how well they shot the ball since they are a jump shooting team.
 
There were 43 x 230/100-100 games in the first 92 playing days of this season.

There has been 20 x 230/100-100 games in the last 20 playing days.
 
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