NBA 07-08 Post Road-Trip ATS Thread

BetCrimes1984

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
I gathered these figures (based on opening lines) together midway through the 06-07 season to test the belief of fading teams in their 1st game back at home off longish road trips (longish meaning 4 or more games in length, since that usually translates to at least a weeks absence from ones own homecourt).

The clear message from these (fully updated) figures is it isn't the 1st game back @home where you want to fade a team, it's in their 2nd game back.

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The overall ATS figures (for the last 4 seasons) are as follows

For the 1st game off a 4+ game road trip - 145-135-11 ...... +10

For the 2nd game off a 4+ game road trip - 122-157-8 ........ -35


The ATS winning % for the 1st game is 51.8% vs 43.9% for the 2nd game.


Of course the above figures are a lot more involved than what the surface facts provide. Different scenarios & teams means its not always that clean cut to say *never* bet a team in the 2nd game, *always* bet them the 1st game. On this basis, I've broken down each set of stats into the deeper scenarios, for 2 groupings: Teams coming off 4 game road trips, and teams coming off 5+ game road trips...

Note: where the All-Star break broke up a teams road trip, or broke up a team's return game/games, they have been excluded.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Teams off 4 game road trips


1st Game Back - Eastern teams

Overall ............................... 36-28-4


As the Fav .......................... 27-18-2
As the Dog .......................... 9-10-2

vs Conference teams ............ 23-18-4
vs non-Conference teams ...... 13-10


vs Conf teams as a Fav .................. 20-13-2
vs Conf teams as a Dog ................. 3-5-2

vs non-Conf teams as a Fav ............ 7-5
vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ........... 6-5


1st Game Back - Western teams

Overall ............................... 41-36-3


As the Fav .......................... 26-26-3
As the Dog .......................... 15-10

vs Conference teams ............ 29-19-2
vs non-Conference teams ...... 12-17-1


vs Conf teams as a Fav .................. 17-15-2
vs Conf teams as a Dog ................. 12-4

vs non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 9-11-1
vs non-Conf teams as a Dog .......... 3-6

----------------------------------------------------------------------

2nd game Back - Eastern teams

Home game ............................... 15-23-1
Road game ................................ 14-13-1


@Home as a Fav ......................... 10-15-1
@Home as a Dog ......................... 5-8

on the Road as a Fav ................... 5-1-1
on the Road as a Dog ................... 9-12


@Home vs Conf teams ................. 11-14
@Home vs non-Conf teams ............. 4-9-1

on the Road vs Conf teams ........... 12-11-1
on the Road vs non-Conf teams ....... 2-2


@Home vs Conf teams as a Fav ................. 7-10
@Home vs Conf teams as a Dog ................ 4-4

@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Fav .......... 3-5-1
@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 1-4

on the Road vs Conf teams as a Fav .......... 5-1-1
on the Road vs Conf teams as a Dog ......... 7-10

on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Fav .... ----
on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ... 2-2


2nd game Back - Western teams

Home game ................................ 24-32-1
Road game ................................. 13-9-1


@Home as a Fav ......................... 17-24
@Home as a Dog .......................... 7-8-1

on the Road as a Fav .................... 3-2
on the Road as a Dog .................. 10-7-1


@Home vs Conf teams .................. 14-23-1
@Home vs non-Conf teams ............ 10-9

on the Road vs Conf teams ............ 8-9-1
on the Road vs non-Conf teams ...... 5-0


@Home vs Conf teams as a Fav ................ 9-17
@Home vs Conf teams as a Dog ............... 5-6-1

@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Fav .......... 8-7
@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 2-2

on the Road vs Conf teams as a Fav .......... 2-2
on the Road vs Conf teams as a Dog ......... 6-7-1

on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Fav .... 1-0
on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ... 4-0

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Teams off 5+ game road trips


1st Game Back - Eastern teams

Overall ............................... 29-40-1


As the Fav .......................... 17-30-1
As the Dog .......................... 12-10

vs Conference teams ............. 21-25
vs non-Conference teams ........ 8-15-1


vs Conf teams as a Fav ................... 14-18
vs Conf teams as a Dog .................... 7-7

vs non-Conf teams as a Fav .............. 3-12-1
vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ............. 5-3


1st Game Back - Western teams

Overall ............................... 39-31-3


As the Fav .......................... 22-25-2
As the Dog .......................... 17-6-1

vs Conference teams ............ 22-17-1
vs non-Conference teams ...... 17-14-2


vs Conf teams as a Fav .................... 8-13-1
vs Conf teams as a Dog ................. 14-4

vs non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 14-12-1
vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ............ 3-2-1

----------------------------------------------------------------------

2nd game Back - Eastern teams

Home game ................................ 19-20-2
Road game ................................. 11-18


@Home as a Fav .......................... 10-16-1
@Home as a Dog ............................ 9-4-1

on the Road as a Fav ..................... 2-5
on the Road as a Dog ..................... 9-13


@Home vs Conf teams .................... 9-15-2
@Home vs non-Conf teams ............ 10-5

on the Road vs Conf teams ............. 10-16
on the Road vs non-Conf teams ........ 1-2


@Home vs Conf teams as a Fav ................. 4-13-1
@Home vs Conf teams as a Dog ................. 5-2-1

@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 6-3
@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Dog .......... 4-2

on the Road vs Conf teams as a Fav ........... 2-4
on the Road vs Conf teams as a Dog .......... 8-12

on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Fav ..... 0-1
on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 1-1


2nd game Back - Western teams

Home game ................................ 15-30-2
Road game ................................. 11-12


@Home as a Fav ......................... 12-22-2
@Home as a Dog ........................... 3-8

on the Road as a Fav ..................... 3-3
on the Road as a Dog ..................... 8-9


@Home vs Conf teams ................... 8-20-2
@Home vs non-Conf teams ............. 7-10

on the Road vs Conf teams ............. 7-10
on the Road vs non-Conf teams ....... 4-2


@Home vs Conf teams as a Fav ................. 6-14-2
@Home vs Conf teams as a Dog ................ 2-6

@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 6-8
@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Dog .......... 1-2

on the Road vs Conf teams as a Fav ........... 2-3
on the Road vs Conf teams as a Dog .......... 5-7

on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Fav .... 1-0
on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ... 3-2



Looking at the combined numbers in these categories that stay true in nature, no matter coming off a 4 or 5+ game road trip...

West - 1st game back as a Dog vs Conf Teams: 26-8

West - 2nd game back on the Road vs non-Conf teams: 9-2

West - 2nd game back @Home as a Fav vs Conf Teams: 15-31-2

East - 2nd game back @Home as a Fav vs Conf Teams: 11-23-1

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Naturally there are some teams that seem to be either especially true to such trends, or defy them in an outstanding manner (the below figures are the 4 & 5+ game stats combined)...


Teams in keeping with the trends

Teams with the best 1st game records over the last 4 seasons -

New York ........... 9-0
Golden State .... 12-2-1
Memphis ............ 9-2-1
Denver .............. 6-3
Sacramento ....... 6-3-1

Yes, believe it or not, the New York Knicks are assassins @home first up after a 4+ game road trips.


Teams with the worst 2nd game records over the last 4 seasons -

Toronto ............ 2-9-1
Seattle ............. 3-11
Miami ............... 2-7
Orlando ............ 3-9
Utah ................ 4-10
Sacramento ...... 3-7
Portland ........... 3-7
New Jersey ....... 4-8


Sacramento makes both lists, easily the best team to have followed these trends faithfully.



Teams bucking the trends

Teams with the worst 1st game records over the last 4 seasons -

Houston ........... 2-8
Portland ........... 2-7-1
Washington ...... 2-6
Boston............. 3-7-1


Anyone think Boston maintains it this season?


Teams with the best 2nd game records over the last 4 seasons -

Charlotte ......... 6-0
Minnesota ........ 6-3
Memphis .......... 7-4
Golden State .... 9-5-1


Another "bad" team with an undefeated record in their short history tops this list.

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The tracking of the 07-08 season's results

The majority of teams do not win or lose both games ATS: they split results over the 2 games...

Off 4 game road trips (last 4 seasons)

Win both ......... 26.53%
Lose both ........ 29.93%
Split results ..... 43.54%


Off 5+ game road trips (last 4 seasons)

Win both ......... 21.42%
Lose both ........ 33.57%
Split results ..... 45.00%


What this means relative to looking to fade teams in their 2nd game off road trips is, is if they have lost the 1st game ATS, then there is an inertia operating against that team's potential failure in the 2nd game, because

- only 31.70% of teams off a 4-5+ game road trip lose both their next games ATS.

Conversely, a team winning its first game off such road trips further emphasize their likelihood to drop that second game, because

- only 24.04% of teams off a 4-5+ game road trip win both their next games ATS.


----------------------------------------------------------------------
These results will only be added collectively to the stats in the initial post at season's end.

Results based on opening lines (when thats a pick'em, the home team is made a -0.5 Fav).


ORL off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs PHX - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs SEA - Won

DEN off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs CLE - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs POR - Won

PHX off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs NYK - Push
2nd - Home Fav vs CHC - Won

CLE off a 6 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs ORL - Lost
2nd - Home Dog vs UTH - Won

NYK off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs GDS - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs DET - Lost

DET off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs NYK - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs PHI - Lost

POR off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs NJY - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs SAC - Lost

SEA off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs NJY - Lost
2nd - Home Dog vs SAS - Lost

GDS off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs PHX - Won
2nd - Road Dog vs SAC - Won

NJY off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MEM - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs PHI - Lost

CHC off a 6 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs ATL - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs CHA - Won

WAS off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs TOR - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs CLE - Won

HOU off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MEM - Won
2nd - Road Fav vs NJY - Won

ORL off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs IND - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs ATL - Lost

PHX off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MIA - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs UTH - Lost

MIL off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs ORL - Won
2nd - Road Dog vs BOS - Lost

MIA off a 6 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs WAS - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs IND - Lost

SEA off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs NOR - Lost
2nd - Home Dog vs TOR - Won

SAC off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs DEN - Lost
2nd - Home Dog vs BOS - Lost

LAK off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs PHX - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs UTH - Won

UTH off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs DAL - Won
2nd - Road Dog vs LAK - Lost

GDS off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MIN - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs DEN - Lost

HOU off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs TOR - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs GDS - Lost

BOS off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs HOU - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs MEM - Lost

TOR off a 7 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs DET - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs CLE - Lost

PHI off a 6 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MIL - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs TOR - Lost

DET off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs TOR - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs SAC - Lost

MIA off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs CHC - Lost
2nd - Home Dog vs POR - Lost

IND off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs GDS - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs SAC - Lost

CHC off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs GDS - Lost
2nd - Home Dog vs DET - Won

GDS off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MIN - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs NJY - Lost

SEA off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs HOU - Won
2nd - Home Dog vs ATL - Lost

POR off a 7 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs HOU - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs ATL - Lost


PHX off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs ATL - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs SAS - Lost

IND off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs DET - Won
2nd - Home Dog vs HOU - Won

NJY off a 6 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MIL - Won
2nd - Road Fav vs MIA - Won

ATL off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs NJY - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs PHI - Push

NYK off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs LAC - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs IND - Lost

DAL off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MIL - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs MEM - Lost

CHA off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs NJY - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs DET - Lost

CHC off a 6 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs NOR - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs MIA - Won

LAC off a 7 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs WAS - Lost
2nd Game nullified by AS break

BOS off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs CLE - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs CHA - Lost

ATL off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs SAC - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs NYK - Lost

SAC off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MIA - Won
2nd - Home Dog vs LAK - Lost

DET off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs SEA - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs BOS - Lost

GDS off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs TOR - Won
2nd - Road Dog vs PHX - Lost

NJY off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs CLE - Won
2nd - Home Dog vs UTH - Won

SEA off a 7 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MIN - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs DEN - Lost

POR off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MIN - Won
2nd - Home Dog vs PHX - Lost

UTH off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs TOR - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs LAK - Lost

LAC off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs GDS - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs POR - Won

TOR off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MIA - Won
2nd - Road Dog vs CLE - Lost

LAK off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs SEA - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs GDS - Lost

CHA off a 6 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MIA - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs UTH - Lost

BOS off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs PHI - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs PHX - Won

DEN off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs DAL - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs GDS - Won

PHX off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs DEN - Won
2nd - Road Dog vs DEN - Lost

CHA off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs TOR - Lost
2nd - Home Dog vs CLE - Lost

MIA off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs NOR - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs WAS - Won

WAS off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MIL - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs MIA - Lost

NOR off a 6 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs NYK - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs GDS - Won

NYK off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs ORL - Won
2nd - Road Dog vs DET - Won

GDS off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs SAC - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs DEN - Lost

HOU off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs SEA - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs PHX - Won

DEN off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs HOU - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs MEM - Lost

----------------------------------------------------------------------
For this season -

Teams playing 1st off 4 game trips .... 14-12-1
Teams playing 2nd off 4 game trips ..... 9-18

Teams playing 1st off 5+ game trips .... 16-24
Teams playing 2nd off 5+ game trips ... 13-25-1

Overall

Teams playing 1st off 4+ game trips .... 30-36-1
Teams playing 2nd off 4+ game trips ... 22-43-1


No excuses for anybody to have gone broke fading teams in either instance.

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betcrimes,

from my numbers Phoenix Opened as a -1.5 fav in that Orlando game yesterday
 
trainwreck, every number I use is sourced from wagerline's line moves...

<TABLE class=data id=tblLineMoves cellSpacing=0><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD height=4>Date/Time</TD><TD height=4>Odds (Line) </TD><TD height=4>Over/Under (Total) </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=datacell>11/10/07 10:21 AM ET (Open)</TD><TD class=datacell>+0.0</TD><TD class=datacell>207.0u</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=datacell>11/10/07 10:56 AM ET</TD><TD class=datacell>+0.0</TD><TD class=datacell>207.5u</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=datacell>11/10/07 12:51 PM ET</TD><TD class=datacell>+0.0</TD><TD class=datacell>208.5u</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=datacell>11/10/07 01:21 PM ET</TD><TD class=datacell>+1.0</TD><TD class=datacell>208.5u</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=datacell>11/10/07 06:46 PM ET</TD><TD class=datacell>+1.5</TD><TD class=datacell>208.5u</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

In my language, thats a pick'em, which, related above, I "turn into" the home team laying -0.5. I have to have a Fav & a Dog, and I think thats a reasonable adjustment.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
trainwreck, every number I use is sourced from wagerline's line moves...

<table class="data" id="tblLineMoves" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="datahead"><td height="4">Date/Time</td><td height="4">Odds (Line) </td><td height="4">Over/Under (Total) </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td class="datacell">11/10/07 10:21 AM ET (Open)</td><td class="datacell">+0.0</td><td class="datacell">207.0u</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td class="datacell">11/10/07 10:56 AM ET</td><td class="datacell">+0.0</td><td class="datacell">207.5u</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td class="datacell">11/10/07 12:51 PM ET</td><td class="datacell">+0.0</td><td class="datacell">208.5u</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td class="datacell">11/10/07 01:21 PM ET</td><td class="datacell">+1.0</td><td class="datacell">208.5u</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td class="datacell">11/10/07 06:46 PM ET</td><td class="datacell">+1.5</td><td class="datacell">208.5u</td></tr></tbody></table>

In my language, thats a pick'em, which, related above, I "turn into" the home team laying -0.5. I have to have a Fav & a Dog, and I think thats a reasonable adjustment.
Click to expand...


okay , sorry
 
I do this to often, but not to speak for BC but there isn't much advantage to this spot:

Easter Conference team, 1st game home off a 5+ road trip:

vs Conf teams as a Fav ................... 14-18


 
Quick question:
You have Portland as a play since Denver is playing their second game off thier road trip. However, Portland played last night. A back to back game for them. Does this factor in at all when selecting these games.

Thanks for the insight..
 
Clyde - I did not single out the opposition team being on B2Bs vs the team off the road trip, so the stats as presented incl. all aspects of rest (or lack of it) for the opposing team. Denver is in a *double whammy spot* in the sense not only are they in the 2nd game/fade spot, but the fact they won their first game puts them in the *only 24% of teams win both games ATS* spot. I will add because Por is playing their first road game off a long and successful homestand, as a young gelling team still, I do see your point and would think this is somewhat of a "minefield" situation for taking either team. BOl w/whatever you decide.

ps - my delayed response is because I was sleeping at the time you posed your question.
 
Pretty amazing streak of losing or winning both ats. You know where Miami fits on first games? Guessing middle of the road since they were not on best or worst list. Really tempted to fade the Heat Thursday. You gotta figure the the Jizz are due for a win having gone 1-9 SU. I'd love to hear your thoughts / plans on the game.
 
smo1a - I agree. Most unusual to see such an unbroken run of results, and not a split in sight.

As far as Miami goes, I'm not impressed with them as a team, but I do see an increased effort on their part lately. I'm not inclined to back against that with a team like the Wiz at present.
 
Gotta try some MILK tomorrow, ride the wave.
If MILK covers tomorrow then Indy on Saturday also...

Betcrimes have you just been blindly playing the second games the same way the first go. Holy Moly.
 
Hawks - I haven't played a spread based on this thread at all this season as of yet. But I def. hear your sentiment.

The problem is, of course, Murphy's Law. The moment anyone feels comfortable blindly betting the 1st game result for the 2nd game - in spite of the percentages listed regarding splits - will be the moment the split results return to the scene.
9 "straight reds" have hit, that "black" is looming. Obviously Boston could tear MIL a new one, the question is do they want to.
 
Little late to notice this obviously after so many in a row.
Terrible "spot" for MILK tomorrow...
 
How about some SEA tomorrow???

West - 1st game back as a Dog vs Conf Teams: 26-8
1st Game Back - Western teams
Overall ............................... 39-31-3
vs Conf teams as a Dog ................. 14-4


Worth a shot???
 
While I rarely advocate making a play based on 1 angle alone, Hawks, lets say theres no way I'd back against Seattle given those numbers.
 
for what its worth, i really like seattle in this spot over NO. Trends for western conf dog in first game against conf opp is pretty strong. my local closed phones at 7pm, so i cant play it, but I think it's got great potential. After NO's last game and the Mavs game, i see no reason to back them on the road.
 
can you find if there's any trend for teams on their last game of a road trip? I'd imagine it would be a flat spot looking ahead to coming home. could be wrong though. you got any numbers this? Thanks BC
 
hey BC , by any chance do you have the ATS numbers and results from these post road trip situations based on rest. Like how teams fare with 1 day rest back from 5 day trip and how they fare with 2 days rest , and 3 + days rest....etc...

I try to look for nice spots to fade certain teams when returning home but prefer only 1 day rest. So I was wondering if that extra day off actually had any situational edge to it.


Note to SFcapper: I read an article recently somewhere where it was really a myth that teams were Flat on the last game of a road trip. It was like 50-50 ATS over a decade or something...
 
When Portland is listed as a 2 point favorite at home first game back after the 5 plus road trip should you consider them the favorite or with their record and the tiny spread have they been slipped into the dog classification?
 
Adhering strictly to the line, I'm recording them as a Fav, tuck. But I understand your point regarding their recent home ATS run, which clashes with how Favs generally perform off 5+ trips in their spot.
 
Hawks, Port has some home ATS streak going on at the moment. I'm not inclined to bet against it, but this spot - as previous stats testify here - makes it difficult to bet it. So, in short, this is a game I'm glad I have the option of passing on.
 
thanks, powerade. Just went & saw the thread, and I accept he's telling the truth about having done his own work to drum up the stats (not that I'd have a problem with someone relating my tracked stats from here as long as they acknowledged "authorship").
 
Teams playing 1st, off all trips: 18-25-1

Teams playing 2nd, off all trips: 14-28-1

to the end of Feb 29th
 
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