BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Due to circumstances, I went hunting for some stats from a set of records that I have that only go back 2 seasons. While this is a limited stat pool, the following numbers are consistent enough to suggest they can be trusted since from a reality/logical point-of-view, they make sense to be what they are.
They concern Home teams on exactly 2 days rest facing a road team off a game the night before (a B2B - it doesn't matter if the road team played at home or away that previous game).
The line taken for the game is relevant: its the opening line as presented by DonBest (since all the stats I sourced are based on that number).
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Home teams in this scenario (2 days rest vs B2B teams) who...
- weren't on a 4 or more game losing streak entering the contest
- werent off a win their previous game, when their record off their prior 5 SU wins to that was 1-4 or 0-5 SU
- were playing this game before April the 1st
...and opened from a pick'em to -7.5, went
in 06-07 .... SU 25-5 .... ATS 22-6-2
in 05-06 .... SU 24-4 .... ATS 20-8
Overall .... SU 49-9 (84.4 winning %) .... ATS 42-14-2 (72.4 winning %)
...and opened -8.0 or higher, went
in 06-07 .... SU 13-1 .... ATS 4-9-1
in 05-06 .... SU 11-2 .... ATS 4-9
Overall .... SU 24-3 (88.8 winning %) .... ATS 8-18-1 (29.6 winning %)
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So, if you faded the Home favs with -8.0 or higher opening lines, and took the Home favs with pick'em to -7.5 opening lines, you would have gone
60-22-3 ATS over the last 2 NBA seasons thru to the end of March (that's only a 74.12 winning %).
How does this make sense? home teams as "the better side" generally speaking - getting the lines mentioned - being rested more than the normal amount (1 day), but not so rested as to have engendered rust creeping in (3+ days), facing a "worse" (Dog) opponent with no rest at all, is a scenario that makes sense to produce its share of Fav results. The only suprise is to the extent related. But who is going to argue, as long as they continue to hold? As for why the larger Favs, the key is those larger lines, since their SU winning percentage is even greater than the other Fav grouping. A majority of those ATS failures involved lines 10.0+ that were otherwise SU wins. The clear dividing line between the sets of results was -7.5/-8.0.
The record for Home dogs here wasn't good: 8-18 SU & 10-16 ATS.
Hard to fade that since some of those road winners were actually prohibitive Favs. The best I see this set of results offering is simply the message to keep away from such contests altogether (at least from my pov). Certainly there's nothing attractive about these home doggies - it would seem, in reality, the "better" road team having played more recently allows it to jump on the home team.
I'll track this season's Fav results in the 2nd post of this thread.
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They concern Home teams on exactly 2 days rest facing a road team off a game the night before (a B2B - it doesn't matter if the road team played at home or away that previous game).
The line taken for the game is relevant: its the opening line as presented by DonBest (since all the stats I sourced are based on that number).
_______________________________________
Home teams in this scenario (2 days rest vs B2B teams) who...
- weren't on a 4 or more game losing streak entering the contest
- werent off a win their previous game, when their record off their prior 5 SU wins to that was 1-4 or 0-5 SU
- were playing this game before April the 1st
...and opened from a pick'em to -7.5, went
in 06-07 .... SU 25-5 .... ATS 22-6-2
in 05-06 .... SU 24-4 .... ATS 20-8
Overall .... SU 49-9 (84.4 winning %) .... ATS 42-14-2 (72.4 winning %)
...and opened -8.0 or higher, went
in 06-07 .... SU 13-1 .... ATS 4-9-1
in 05-06 .... SU 11-2 .... ATS 4-9
Overall .... SU 24-3 (88.8 winning %) .... ATS 8-18-1 (29.6 winning %)
_______________________________________
So, if you faded the Home favs with -8.0 or higher opening lines, and took the Home favs with pick'em to -7.5 opening lines, you would have gone
60-22-3 ATS over the last 2 NBA seasons thru to the end of March (that's only a 74.12 winning %).
How does this make sense? home teams as "the better side" generally speaking - getting the lines mentioned - being rested more than the normal amount (1 day), but not so rested as to have engendered rust creeping in (3+ days), facing a "worse" (Dog) opponent with no rest at all, is a scenario that makes sense to produce its share of Fav results. The only suprise is to the extent related. But who is going to argue, as long as they continue to hold? As for why the larger Favs, the key is those larger lines, since their SU winning percentage is even greater than the other Fav grouping. A majority of those ATS failures involved lines 10.0+ that were otherwise SU wins. The clear dividing line between the sets of results was -7.5/-8.0.
The record for Home dogs here wasn't good: 8-18 SU & 10-16 ATS.
Hard to fade that since some of those road winners were actually prohibitive Favs. The best I see this set of results offering is simply the message to keep away from such contests altogether (at least from my pov). Certainly there's nothing attractive about these home doggies - it would seem, in reality, the "better" road team having played more recently allows it to jump on the home team.
I'll track this season's Fav results in the 2nd post of this thread.
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Last edited:
illow:
