NBA 07-08 230/100-100 Thread

BetCrimes1984

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
Briefly, for those unfamiliar with this -

Early in the 05-06 season, I noticed that teams coming off being involved
in a game that totaled 230+ points, where both teams scored 100+ points individually, had a seeming predisposition to deliver Under results in their next game. That early season Under bias evened out more as the season went on, but there remained specific spots where Under results were delivered more readily (in some cases, emphatically).

The bottom line has been teams playing first following such a game deliver Under more readily than teams playing second. It makes sense this be so since playing second usually means at least 1 days extra rest over the team playing first.

What's below are those stats from last 2 seasons worth of tracking and the tracking of stats for this season.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

First, the exceptions. The following teams stats I have excluded from the overall records to date (or from the beginning of this current season - italics) and will exclude from this season. They have shown a clear bias to buck this trend off such games, which will come as no suprise given their playing styles....

Phoenix
Memphis
Milwaukee
Golden State
Washington
Denver
Sacramento
LA Lakers
Utah
Minnesota
Orlando
Indiana
Toronto

----------------------------------------------------------------------
All results based on opening lines & regulation scores.

Opponent Results for 05-06/06-07


Playing First, @Home

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 7-10 ........... U/O 8-2 ...... vs Conference Opponents
U/O 5-3 ............. U/O 2-2 ...... vs non-Conference Opponents


Playing First, on the Road

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 8-6 ............. U/O 7-3 ...... vs Conference Opponents
U/O 6-3 ............. U/O --- ....... vs non-Conference Opponents


Playing Second, @Home

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 6-9 ............. U/O 7-6 ...... vs Conference Opponents
U/O 6-4 ............. U/O 1-3 ...... vs non-Conference Opponents


Playing Second, on the Road

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 11-7 ........... U/O 4-2 ...... vs Conference Opponents
U/O 3-3 ............. U/O 3-2 ...... vs non-Conference Opponents

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Sequence Results for 05-06/06-07

Off a Win, @Home

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 5-5 ............. U/O 6-1 ...... playing first
U/O 7-8 ............. U/O 2-4 ...... playing second


Off a Win, on the Road

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 6-3 ............. U/O 4-3 ...... playing first
U/O 9-5 ............. U/O 3-4 ...... playing second


Off a Loss, @Home

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 7-8 ............. U/O 4-3 ...... playing first
U/O 5-5 ............. U/O 6-5 ...... playing second


Off a Loss, on the Road

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 8-6 ............. U/O 3-0 ...... playing first
U/O 5-5 ............. U/O 4-0 ...... playing second

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Margin Results for 05-06/06-07

Playing First ........... Playing Second
U/O 12-4 .............. U/O 7-6 ........ Off a 1-3 pt margin result
U/O 12-10 ............ U/O 15-8 ...... Off a 4-6 pt margin result
U/O 7-8 ................ U/O 8-13 ...... Off a 7-9 pt margin result
U/O 11-7 .............. U/O 12-9 ...... Off a 10+ pt margin result


*Pushes & Repeat match-up results (where the same 2 teams meet each other in their next game off such a result) are not recorded here.
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Results for the current season

All results based on opening lines & regulation scores.

Opponent Results for 07-08


Playing First, @Home

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 2-2 ............. U/O --- ....... vs Conference Opponents
U/O 3-1 ............. U/O 1-0 ...... vs non-Conference Opponents


Playing First, on the Road

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 3-1 ............. U/O 2-2 ...... vs Conference Opponents
U/O 2-2 ............. U/O 5-0 ...... vs non-Conference Opponents


Playing Second, @Home

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 7-3 ............. U/O 1-2 ...... vs Conference Opponents
U/O 1-0 ............. U/O 1-1 ...... vs non-Conference Opponents


Playing Second, on the Road

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 2-3 ............. U/O 2-1 ...... vs Conference Opponents
U/O 0-4 ............. U/O 1-0 ...... vs non-Conference Opponents

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Sequence Results for 07-08

Off a Win, @Home

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 1-2 ............. U/O 0-1 ...... playing first
U/O 5-1 ............. U/O 1-1 ...... playing second


Off a Win, on the Road

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 3-1 ............. U/O 5-0 ...... playing first
U/O 2-3 ............. U/O 1-0 ...... playing second


Off a Loss, @Home

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 4-1 ............. U/O 1-0 ...... playing first
U/O 3-2 ............. U/O 1-1 ...... playing second


Off a Loss, on the Road

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 2-2 ............. U/O 2-2 ...... playing first
U/O 0-4 ............. U/O 2-1 ...... playing second

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Margin Results for 07-08

Playing First ........ Playing Second
U/O 4-3 .............. U/O 2-4 ........ off a 1-3 pt margin result
U/O 6-2 .............. U/O 4-3 ........ off a 4-6 pt margin result
U/O 4-2 .............. U/O 4-4 ........ off a 7-9 pt margin result
U/O 4-1 .............. U/O 5-3 ........ off a 10+ pt margin result


*Pushes & Repeat match-up results are not recorded here.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 
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All results based on opening lines & regulation scores

UTH 133-110 GDS
1st - UTH @ LAK --> Over
2nd - GDS vs CLE -> Over

MEM 111-121 IND
1st - IND vs LAC --> Under
2nd - MEM @ SEA -> Under

NYK 119-112 DEN
1st - DEN @ BOS -> Over
2nd - NYK vs ORL -> Over

GDS 115-120 DAL
1st - DAL @ POR --> Under
2nd - GDS vs DET -> Over

CLE 116-117 ORL (OT)
1st - CLE vs UTH -> Under
2nd - ORL @ NJY -> Under

ATL 123-126 SEA (2OT)
1st - SEA @ CHA -> Under
2nd - ATL @ MIL -> Over

MEM 118-120 NOR (OT)
1st - NOR @ MIN --> Under
2nd - MEM @ DAL -> Over

SAC 123-118 NYK (2 OT)
1st - NYK @ DEN --> Under
2nd - SAC vs DET -> Over

MEM 125-108 SEA
1st - MEM vs TOR -> Under
2nd - SEA vs NJY -> Under

IND 114-134 LAK
1st - LAK @ MIL --> Over
2nd - IND @ NOR -> Over

SAS 128-110 ORL
1st - ORL vs CHA --> Over
2nd - SAS vs MEM -> Under

PHX 127-111 SAC
1st - PHX vs LAC --> Under
2nd - SAC @ POR -> Under

WAS 115-123 GDS
1st - GDS @ PHI ---> Under
2nd - WAS @ MEM -> Over

MEM 124-118 WAS
1st - WAS @ DAL -> Over
2nd - MEM @ NJY -> Over

GDS 129-114 PHX
1st - PHX vs HOU -> Under
2nd - GDS @ SAC -> Under

DEN 123-107 LAC
1st - LAC vs IND --> Under
2nd - DEN vs MIA -> Over

GDS 117-123 ORL (OT)
1st - GDS vs MIL -> Under
2nd - ORL vs IND -> Over

IND 117-121 PHX
1st - PHX @ TOR -> Over
2nd - IND @ ORL -> Over

TOR 123-136 PHX
1st - PHX @ WAS -> Over
2nd - TOR @ BOS -> Over

DAL 109-122 DEN
1st - DAL vs UTH --> Over
2nd - DEN vs SAC -> Under

NOR 118-116 MEM (OT)
1st - MEM @ ATL --> Under
2nd - NOR vs SEA -> Under

GDS 120-113 MIA
1st - MIA @ LAC --> Over
2nd - GDS @ LAK -> Over

DAL 125-117 UTH
1st - DAL @ NYK --> Under
2nd - UTH vs POR -> Under

POR 117-113 MIL (OT)
1st - MIL @ SAC --> Under
2nd - POR @ UTH -> Under

LAK 123-113 GDS
1st - GDS vs SAS -> Under
2nd - LAK vs SAS -> Over

PHX 113-117 MIA
1st - PHX vs UTH --> Under
2nd - MIA vs WAS -> Under

ORL 119-123 MEM
1st - MEM vs GDS -> Over
2nd - ORL @ DAL --> Over

MEM 117-125 GDS
1st - MEM vs SAS -> Under
2nd - GDS @ MIN --> Under

MIN 131-118 IND
1st - IND vs WAS -> Under
2nd - MIN @ NOR -> Over

SEA 123-115 TOR
1st - TOR @ PHX --> Over
2nd - SEA @ POR -> Under

LAK 122-115 PHX
1st - PHX @ LAC --> Under
2nd - LAK vs UTH -> Over

DEN 125-105 MIL
1st - MIL @ CHC --> Over
2nd - DEN @ GDS -> Over

MIA 114-121 ORL (OT)
1st - ORL vs CHA --> Push
2nd - MIA @ WAS -> Under

GDS 120-124 DEN
1st - DEN vs GDS -> Under

LAK 123-109 UTH
1st - UTH vs BOS -> Over
2nd - LAK vs BOS -> Over

PHX 113-118 NOR
1st - PHX vs DEN -> Over
2nd - NOR vs LAK -> Under

PHX 137-115 DEN
1st - PHX vs IND --> Under (in regulation)
2nd - DEN vs ORL -> Under


GDS 130-121 SAS (OT)
1st - GDS @ POR --> Under
2nd - SAS vs DET -> Under

PHX 129-122 IND (OT)
1st - PHX @ UTH -> Under
2nd - IND @ SAC -> Over

PHX 122-114 MIL
1st - MIL @ UTH --> Under
2nd - PHX @ LAC -> Under

UTH 119-115 ORL
1st - UTH vs MIL --> Under
2nd - ORL vs CHC -> Under

CHA 119-116 DEN
1st - DEN @ ATL --> Under
2nd - CHA vs ORL -> Under

SAC 122-120 DAL
1st - SAC @ TOR -> Over
2nd - DAL vs SEA -> Over

SEA 121-123 LAK (OT)
1st - SEA @ NOR -> Over
2nd - LAK vs PHX -> Under

MEM 124-132 CLE (OT)
1st - CLE @ SAS --> Under
2nd - MEM vs SEA -> Over

IND 125-117 GDS
1st - GDS @ CHC -> Over
2nd - IND vs SAC -> Over

CHC 111-119 GDS
1st - CHC vs DET -> Under
2nd - GDS vs MIN -> Over

GDS 121-119 NJY
1st - NJY @ DEN --> Under
2nd - GDS vs NYK -> Under

UTH 127-113 SAC
1st - UTH @ HOU -> Under
2nd - SAC @ SEA -> Under

MEM 125-120 LAC (OT)
1st - MEM vs DAL -> Under
2nd - LAC vs CHA -> Over

IND 115-121 ORL
1st - ORL vs DAL -> Under
2nd - IND vs SAS -> Over

PHX 130-132 NOR (OT)
1st - PHX vs SEA --> Under
2nd - NOR vs MEM -> Over

DEN 115-118 UTH (OT)
1st - UTH @ SAC --> Over
2nd - DEN vs WAS -> Over

ORL 113-117 LAK
1st - LAK @ MIA --> Under
2nd - ORL vs CLE -> Over

GDS 120-117 WAS
1st - GDS vs PHX --> Over
2nd - WAS @ LAC -> Under

GDS 120-118 PHX
1st - PHX vs DAL --> Under
2nd - GDS @ UTH -> Over

DEN 124-118 BOS
1st - BOS @ GDS -> Over
2nd - DEN @ CHC -> Over

TOR 127-110 ORL
1st - ORL vs PHI --> Over
2nd - TOR @ NYK -> Over

GDS 119-117 BOS
1st - GDS vs ATL -> Over
2nd - BOS @ PHX -> Under

PHX 124-130 LAK
1st - PHX vs BOS -> Under
2nd - LAK vs LAC -> Under

CHA 115-116 SAC (OT)
1st - CHA @ WAS -> Over
2nd - SAC @ ORL -> Under

CHC 135-121 DEN
1st - DEN @ MIL --> Over
2nd - CHC @ HOU -> Over


MEM 113-127 PHX
1st - PHX @ NOR --> Over
2nd - MEM @ HOU -> Over

ATL 123-117 SAC
1st - ATL vs NYK -> Under
2nd - SAC @ DAL -> Over

TOR 111-122 IND
1st - TOR @ CHA -> Over
2nd - IND vs MIL -> Over

POR 119-111 LAK
1st - LAK vs DAL --> Under (in regulation)
2nd - POR @ GDS -> Over

PHX 114-119 PHI
1st - PHI @ LAC --> Under
2nd - PHX @ POR -> Under

IND 128-106 MIL
1st - MIL vs SEA -> Over
2nd - IND @ HOU -> Over

ATL 118-135 GDS
1st - GDS @ CHA -> Over
2nd - ATL @ NOR -> Over

DEN 126-113 PHX
1st - PHX vs UTH -> Over
2nd - DEN vs SAN -> Over

PHX 118-126 UTH
1st - UTH vs DEN -> Over
2nd - PHX vs SAN -> Under

NYK 114-120 POR (OT)
1st - POR @ CLE --> Under
2nd - NYK @ DAL -> Under

UTH 132-105 DEN
1st - DEN @ SAS --> Over
2nd - UTH @ CHC -> Under

ORL 123-112 ATL
1st - ATL vs HOU -> Under
2nd - ORL vs LAC -> Under

PHX 132-111 MEM
1st - MEM @ DEN -> Under
2nd - PHX vs GDS -> Over

PHX 123-115 GDS
1st - PHX vs SAC --> Under
2nd - GDS vs MEM -> Under

DEN 137-105 TOR
1st - DEN vs SEA -> Over
2nd - TOR @ SAC -> Under

SEA 116-121 MIN
1st - MIN @ POR --> Over
2nd - SEA @ DEN -> Over

ORL 122-111 IND
1st - IND vs NYK -> Under
2nd - ORL vs CLE -> Under

NJY 117-115 UTH
1st - UTH vs TOR -> Under
2nd - NJY @ CHC -> Over

DEN 168-116 SEA
1st - DEN @ DET --> Over
2nd - SEA vs PHX -> Under

DET 136-120 DEN
1st - DEN @ PHI --> Over
2nd - DET @ CLE -> Under

NJY 125-117 ATL
1st - NJY vs DEN --> Over
2nd - ATL vs ORL -> Under

IND 124-113 MIN
1st - MIN vs NYK -> Over
2nd - IND @ CHC -> Under

LAK 130-105 SEA
1st - SEA @ UTH --> Under
2nd - LAK vs GDS -> Under (in regulation)

NJY 114-125 DEN
1st - NJY @ PHI --> Under
2nd - DEN @ TOR -> Under

PHX 122-113 HOU
1st - PHX @ DET --> Under (in regulation)
2nd - HOU vs SAC -> Over

GDS 119-123 LAK (OT)
1st - LAK vs CHA --> Under
2nd - GDS vs POR -> Under

UTH 128-106 CHA
1st - CHA @ LAK --> Under
2nd - UTH vs LAC -> Over

NJY 124-117 IND
1st - IND vs NJY --> Over

IND 123-115 NJY
1st - NJY vs PHX -> Under
2nd - IND vs MIA -> Under

DEN 119-112 GDS
1st - GDS vs DAL -> Over
2nd - DEN @ PHX -> Over

LAK 126-120 WAS (OT)
1st - WAS @ UTH -> Over
2nd - LAK vs POR -> Under

PHX 132-117 DEN
1st - DEN vs PHX --> Over

MIL 119-115 NYK (OT)
1st - MIL @ WAS --> Over
2nd - NYK @ MEM -> Over

DEN 126-120 PHX
1st - PHX vs MIN --> Under
2nd - DEN vs SAC -> Under

CHA 114-118 CLE
1st - CLE vs CHC --> Over
2nd - CHA @ TOR -> Over

ATL 127-120 TOR (OT)
1st - TOR vs CHA -> Over
2nd - ATL vs PHI --> Over

MEM 130-114 NYK
1st - MEM @ GDS -> Under
2nd - NYK @ NOR -> Over

DEN 115-118 SAC
1st - SAC vs LAK -> Under
2nd - DEN @ SEA -> Over

SEA 151-147 DEN (2 OT)
1st - SEA @ DAL --> Under
2nd - DEN @ LAC -> Over

CHA 121-119 MIN
1st - CHA @ NYK --> Over
2nd - MIN vs NOR -> Over

MEM 113-127 PHX
1st - PHX @ SAS --> Under
2nd - MEM @ MIA -> Under

GDS 140-132 SAC
1st - GDS vs DEN --> Under
2nd - SAC vs POR -> Under

GDS 122-116 LAC
1st - GDS @ PHX -> Over
2nd - LAC @ NOR -> Over

PHX 122-116 GDS
1st - PHX vs POR --> Under
2nd - GDS vs SEA -> Over

MIL 135-151 CHC
1st - MIL vs MIN --> Under (in regulation)
2nd - CHC vs TOR -> Under
 
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All Teams playing off a 230/100-100 OT game are 14-4-1 to Under this season.

Indiana plays Sacramento on Saturday off a 230/100-100 OT result.
 
:cheers: Excellent research as usual BC. I put a little on this under, neither team plays much in the way of defense, but both are more than capable of having off nights.

BC Do you yourself play these trends as well, or just keep record of them?
 
lifesallover - I've played a few 1st games off OTs (which havent yet lost this season), but I really haven't bet a lot of NBA full stop so far (as compared to previous years) for various reasons. I've been picking it up in the new yar, thou.
 
wow, that is some in depth stuff. I have been wasting my time betting. It's like watching a porn movie, and realizing you havent been doing a thing to your own girl based on what's on-screen.

my head hurts from reading.....good stuff
 
Arbusto - for me its all about finding a stat window into consistently predictable situations, and working fom there:shake:
 
wjeremy97 said:
is the sonics under a play tonight?
Click to expand...

Yes. I'm just about to make to thread addressing that play and one for the charlotte game.:cheers:

----------------------------------------------------------------------

edit: scrub that Charlotte game, found too many things (since) I don't like.
 
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number2 - my concern there is a pretty simple one: the Warriors have played 17 straight games of 200+ point totals, which is easily their longest run without a sub-200 total since Baron joined the team. Combine that fact with NYK & GS being 4-1 to Under their last 5 meetings, and I'm personally looking to bet Under or nothing.
 
3 teams qualify for Fri : Phoenix, Utah and Denver in that order of start times. Does start time matter or just days ? (Make sense?)
Example Phoe palys at 9, Utah at 10 and Den at 10:30 est, does this make Phoe the play or all 3 for game #1?
 
doogie - all three of those teams I dont keep records for, they're all on the banned list. So this thread's official tracking stats indicate nothing for those games.

Only Nawlins qualifies from those 2 games results..
 
Yes I understand but the record for 1st game off an OT is great thus far.
I may have to make a small play on both game ones. Any opinion??
 
Phoenix has a decent under record (5-0) at home off a 250+ point game since Joe Johnson left the team (= last 3 seasons). On that basis, I'd go for under there before under between Utah & Sactoe.
 
Phoenix and Boston both coming off of monster over games.. Total doesnt seem too high here and has already fallen .5 points in most places. 217.5 thoughts?
 
BetCrimes1984, do you have any comments with these picks:
Sac/Charl-over204
Phil/Orl-over203
Den/Chi-under208
Bost/Pho-under216
 
Slim, out of those 4 games, my biggest "lean" would def. be under in Phoenix. I'll qualify that by saying I've been expecting a decent run of Over results for sometime now (a run that would significantly close up the lead under has had (30+) games, re; the trend thread), and since it's obviously well underway since the AS break, you've got to be careful imo betting a lot of unders, at least until this Over deluge has obviously ended.
 
BetCrimes1984, thanks for your respond. You have done great works for the forum. I have read alot of your football works from Covers. Keep it up and accept my personal thank you for your time and support.
 
Thanks, slim, and it's no problem. Decided on a small bet on the Under in PHX myself, looking good at this point but you can never rule out OT bullshit.
 
BetCrimes1984, Thank you for your earlier input. Before received your respond, I have already put in 10 units for each of below games. After received your respond, I put in additional 40 units under (Pho).

Sac/Charl-over204 (win)
Phil/Orl-over203 (win)
Den/Chi-under208 (lost)
Bost/Pho-under216 (win)

Thanks again and will write more to you soon. Good night.
 
Guys, if you have time, look up MATRIXX from Covers. I have tailed his plays for the last 3 weeks and profit $36K. Hope for more winning... Good luck to all..
 
Bet Correct me if Im wrong, but last night we had

Denver 121
Chicago 135

Kings 116
Bobcats 115


So today we have Wiz/Bobcats U, and Denver/Bucks U?
 
Marlo - Denver is [now] a "banned" team, so there's no advocation for a play on their under via this trend. However Charlotte's under will get serious consideration from me.
 
BC

Got killed on unders in the last 2 days, figured things would even themselves out from the beginning of AFTER the ASB.....but looks like they are evening themselves out for the season....

We had many close games last night Det 227, ATL 227..might look at the unders in both of these games anyway

Will be playing Charl U, staying away from Denver
 
Chicago and the Under is the question. With new team and all, got a strong feeling that bookies/ bettors might give the result against Denver too big of a credit and set too high of a total against Houston tonight. Anything higher than 190 will be an Under bet and if by any chance, it will hit the 200 points total, than it will be a strong bet probably.
 
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