Navy vs. Army NCAAF Week 15 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Navy Midshipmen vs. Army Black Knights
Saturday, December 12, 2020 at 3 p.m. ET (CBS) at Michie Stadium in West Point, New York
For the first time since World War II, the Army-Navy game will be played at an academy service’s location.
The reasoning is COVID-related: attendance regulations in the state of this game’s conventional location, which is Pennsylvania, would have kept Brigade of Midshipmen and Corps of Cadets from attending the contest.
Navy’s Quarterback Situation: Last Year
In Navy’s triple option attack, the quarterback plays an important role.
Before the snap, Navy’s quarterback has to understand the defense’s formation and call any necessary audibles. After the snap, he has to read defenders and decide whether to keep the ball or hand it off.
Last year, Malcolm Perry was clearly the guy at quarterback. The Navy star enjoyed a historically strong year, producing more rushing yards than any other quarterback in NCAA history.
While Perry ran for over 2,000 yards, he also passed for more yards than a Midshipmen quarterback had done since 2016.
For the above reasons, the Midshipmen owned the nation’s 11th-highest scoring offense as measured by points per game.
Navy’s Quarterback Situation: This year
Perry has left Navy and decided to transition to the NFL where he is listed as a running back for the Miami Dolphins.
It’s true that the Midshipmen are passing for more yards this year. But this uptick in yardage is merely a product of the circumstance that Navy is falling behind in games more often and more drastically.
This year, Navy ranks 118th in scoring offense while averaging 18.4 points per game. So its offense ranks 107 spots below last year’s version in points per game as this year's offense scores 18.1 fewer points per game.
Losing Perry is key not only because of the unique productivity that he displayed, but because Navy cannot find anyone who it is satisfied with to occupy the position.
Tyger Goslin and Dalen Morris had seen the most action at quarterback. Morris is an ok passer, but is not a threat running the ball. He’s averaging .7 YPC.
Goslin does both — run and pass. But he is extremely inefficient when doing both. He completes 42 percent of his passes while averaging fewer than two YPC.
Navy wanted to give first-year player Xavier Arline a try at quarterback last week. Strictly a running option, he failed to help the Midshipmen exceed six points.
In the past two weeks, the Midshipmen have scored a combined total of 13 points. Six came against Tulsa’s high-ranked defense. Only seven came against a Memphis defense that ranks 82nd in allowing 32 points per game.
For comparison’s sake, Army ranks 20th nationally in conceding 18.7 points per game.
At 7-2, this is not an Army squad that resembles in quality the AAC bottom-feeders which Navy has beaten for its only three wins of the season.
Army Defense vs. Triple Option
Army’s defense — it’s whole team really — benefitted from playing Georgia Southern last week. Like Navy, Georgia Southern runs a triple-option offense.
Georgia Southern posed stronger challenges than Navy will. For starters, Georgia Southern trotted out a veteran, proven quarterback, a guy who has spent four years establishing himself for Georgia Southern.
The Black Knights displayed tremendous grit, coming back from a 21-7 deficit that they created due to fixable turnovers to beat a Georgia Southern bowl team.
These turnovers are avoidable. Plus, Navy arguably has less to offer in terms of the speed and skill of its players.
Two Black Knight defenders help make their defense solid. They will also be decisive against Navy’s option attack.
One defender is Nolan Cockrill. Cockrill is the nose tackle that a defensive line wants when defending the triple option.
Linebacker Jon Rhattigan is another key defender. He is one of 18 semifinalists for the Bednarik Award, which is given annually to the nation’s top defensive player.
Rhattigan and Cockrill both display a necessary blend of athleticism and physicality. Cockrill has been praised by PFF’s grading for the degree to which he wins battles at the line of scrimmage. Rhattigan has received even more praise due to his development.
Army Offense vs. Navy Defense
Like Navy, Army possesses a bruiser who it can rely on in short-yardage and goal-line situations.
For Army, this man is Sandon McCoy who has accumulated 10 rushing touchdowns this season. Like fellow ball-carrier Jakobi Buchanan, he will ably use his advanced physicality to drive defenders forward.
With two bruisers, Army will sustain drives and thrive near the end-zone against a Midshipmen defense that lacks the proven experience at the nose tackle position that Army’s defense enjoys.
In addition to winning in the trenches, the Black Knights benefit from able quarterback play. Army has quarterbacks who it can rely on to run the offense and to run efficiently with drastically greater YPC averages than Navy’s quarterbacks.
The Verdict
The total always appears low for this contest because this game always stays ‘under.’ The under hasn’t been in danger since 2010, when both teams were within a touchdown of bringing the game over.
So let’s expect the typical under. We should also expect Army to cover with its competent and more reliable quarterback play and with the edge that its front seven enjoys thanks to key players at nose tackle and linebacker, respectively.
Best Bet: Black Knights -7 at -108 with Heritage & Under 38 at -119 with Bookmaker
Navy Midshipmen vs. Army Black Knights
Saturday, December 12, 2020 at 3 p.m. ET (CBS) at Michie Stadium in West Point, New York
For the first time since World War II, the Army-Navy game will be played at an academy service’s location.
The reasoning is COVID-related: attendance regulations in the state of this game’s conventional location, which is Pennsylvania, would have kept Brigade of Midshipmen and Corps of Cadets from attending the contest.
Navy’s Quarterback Situation: Last Year
In Navy’s triple option attack, the quarterback plays an important role.
Before the snap, Navy’s quarterback has to understand the defense’s formation and call any necessary audibles. After the snap, he has to read defenders and decide whether to keep the ball or hand it off.
Last year, Malcolm Perry was clearly the guy at quarterback. The Navy star enjoyed a historically strong year, producing more rushing yards than any other quarterback in NCAA history.
While Perry ran for over 2,000 yards, he also passed for more yards than a Midshipmen quarterback had done since 2016.
For the above reasons, the Midshipmen owned the nation’s 11th-highest scoring offense as measured by points per game.
Navy’s Quarterback Situation: This year
Perry has left Navy and decided to transition to the NFL where he is listed as a running back for the Miami Dolphins.
It’s true that the Midshipmen are passing for more yards this year. But this uptick in yardage is merely a product of the circumstance that Navy is falling behind in games more often and more drastically.
This year, Navy ranks 118th in scoring offense while averaging 18.4 points per game. So its offense ranks 107 spots below last year’s version in points per game as this year's offense scores 18.1 fewer points per game.
Losing Perry is key not only because of the unique productivity that he displayed, but because Navy cannot find anyone who it is satisfied with to occupy the position.
Tyger Goslin and Dalen Morris had seen the most action at quarterback. Morris is an ok passer, but is not a threat running the ball. He’s averaging .7 YPC.
Goslin does both — run and pass. But he is extremely inefficient when doing both. He completes 42 percent of his passes while averaging fewer than two YPC.
Navy wanted to give first-year player Xavier Arline a try at quarterback last week. Strictly a running option, he failed to help the Midshipmen exceed six points.
In the past two weeks, the Midshipmen have scored a combined total of 13 points. Six came against Tulsa’s high-ranked defense. Only seven came against a Memphis defense that ranks 82nd in allowing 32 points per game.
For comparison’s sake, Army ranks 20th nationally in conceding 18.7 points per game.
At 7-2, this is not an Army squad that resembles in quality the AAC bottom-feeders which Navy has beaten for its only three wins of the season.
Army Defense vs. Triple Option
Army’s defense — it’s whole team really — benefitted from playing Georgia Southern last week. Like Navy, Georgia Southern runs a triple-option offense.
Georgia Southern posed stronger challenges than Navy will. For starters, Georgia Southern trotted out a veteran, proven quarterback, a guy who has spent four years establishing himself for Georgia Southern.
The Black Knights displayed tremendous grit, coming back from a 21-7 deficit that they created due to fixable turnovers to beat a Georgia Southern bowl team.
These turnovers are avoidable. Plus, Navy arguably has less to offer in terms of the speed and skill of its players.
Two Black Knight defenders help make their defense solid. They will also be decisive against Navy’s option attack.
One defender is Nolan Cockrill. Cockrill is the nose tackle that a defensive line wants when defending the triple option.
Linebacker Jon Rhattigan is another key defender. He is one of 18 semifinalists for the Bednarik Award, which is given annually to the nation’s top defensive player.
Rhattigan and Cockrill both display a necessary blend of athleticism and physicality. Cockrill has been praised by PFF’s grading for the degree to which he wins battles at the line of scrimmage. Rhattigan has received even more praise due to his development.
Army Offense vs. Navy Defense
Like Navy, Army possesses a bruiser who it can rely on in short-yardage and goal-line situations.
For Army, this man is Sandon McCoy who has accumulated 10 rushing touchdowns this season. Like fellow ball-carrier Jakobi Buchanan, he will ably use his advanced physicality to drive defenders forward.
With two bruisers, Army will sustain drives and thrive near the end-zone against a Midshipmen defense that lacks the proven experience at the nose tackle position that Army’s defense enjoys.
In addition to winning in the trenches, the Black Knights benefit from able quarterback play. Army has quarterbacks who it can rely on to run the offense and to run efficiently with drastically greater YPC averages than Navy’s quarterbacks.
The Verdict
The total always appears low for this contest because this game always stays ‘under.’ The under hasn’t been in danger since 2010, when both teams were within a touchdown of bringing the game over.
So let’s expect the typical under. We should also expect Army to cover with its competent and more reliable quarterback play and with the edge that its front seven enjoys thanks to key players at nose tackle and linebacker, respectively.
Best Bet: Black Knights -7 at -108 with Heritage & Under 38 at -119 with Bookmaker
