Navy / NIU...

[vanzack]

My initial lean here is Navy....

Any thoughts?

Dobbs is starting at QB (from what I gather Kaipo is def out). He played well in the 3 games he has been in.....

Just see Navy as a more tested team with a weeks worth of extra rest playing an NIU team that has just a week to prepare for that funky offense. The one thing that worried me was Navy having Army on deck, but I looked back and they have won the game before the army game the last 4 years - so Im hoping they arent looking ahead.

Thoughts appreciated....

 

[3rd & Long]

Navy is already slotted into their bowl game, so this game means nothing to them.

I just can't get the vision of how shitty they played against Temple out of my head either. Took NIU -3.

 

[scraps@midnight]

on navy myself. don't see the look ahead as a factor either. initial concern was the disparity in motivators on paper but navy seems to have the discipline historically to always bring it and fight hard to the end. only hesitation is a very inexperienced qb coming into one of the biggest games at this homefield. the fact that they have to sell ticks for a dollar suggests that niu may not have the greatest fan support! i do love dobbs's athletic ability and he seems to be a strong leader. fairly large play for me...nice to see you lean that way vanzack

 

[vanzack]

Navy is already slotted into their bowl game, so this game means nothing to them.

I just can't get the vision of how shitty they played against Temple out of my head either. Took NIU -3.

But if you look back to last year, you will see the same exact situation against the same exact team.

Navy was 6-4 last year, slotted for their bowl game, and played NIU and beat them.

Year before, they were 7-3 with Army on deck and slotted for their bowl, and they won their game easily.

Dont know if any of this matters, but I do think Navy will give a full effort tonight.

:cheers:

 

[vanzack]

Crowd support at Thxgvg week is sometimes horrible. Kids go home early and these games are half full.

 

[scraps@midnight]

one question i do have i...i see lvsc open at 5 and quick drop to 3. was the move related to dobbs starting or early action on navy? any thoughts?

 

[vanzack]

one question i do have i...i see lvsc open at 5 and quick drop to 3. was the move related to dobbs starting or early action on navy? any thoughts?

I am a very numbers oriented person - and I dont subscribe to any "conspiracy" theories with lines / books / public / sharp etc..... I always assume the line moves on 1. money, or 2. information that will eventually mean money.

And I also know that a 2k bet when a line first comes out will move it a point. So to give you an idea, if the line opens at 5 for a game like this (smaller in total action) and they get 10K total on one side (not really that much), the line will go to -3 in a hurry. Its not like an opening number on USC vs OKL.

But to answer your question, I really dont know if it was the QB news or money, my guess was money, and that it will keep going down from here.

 

[RJ Esq]

But if you look back to last year, you will see the same exact situation against the same exact team.

Navy was 6-4 last year, slotted for their bowl game, and played NIU and beat them.

Year before, they were 7-3 with Army on deck and slotted for their bowl, and they won their game easily.

Dont know if any of this matters, but I do think Navy will give a full effort tonight.

:cheers:

Military academies always give full effort for all 60 minutes. One of the things you can count on.

I lean to Navy too Van, but won't be on it.

 

[scraps@midnight]

thanks vanzack. appreciate the insight. some see these moves more relevant than others. i tend to consider them in the bigger picture but still see myself as a novice (3 years).

 

[Blue_Chip]

Lean Navy

Dobbs is obviously the wild card. I think he could be better than Kaipo. Navy will run. Navy's defensive weakness is defending the pass, but No Illy can't exposure that weakness.

 

[nawlins51]

Military academies always give full effort for all 60 minutes. One of the things you can count on.

I lean to Navy too Van, but won't be on it.

I agree with that.Its Navy or nothing. I got Navy-1 for the game. Just debating on playing it even though it shows some good value.

 

[SportsNut]

Looking at Navy as well . Agree with Nawlins in that I made this game a PKem .


Preparing for the Navy offense is always a headache and NIU just has not had much free time. Tis will be Game #4 since Nov 5th and Navy only playing its 3rd time since Nov 1st . With the Army game still 10-11 days after this. Which may also lead to NIU defense tiring in the 2nd H at some point having to be on the field for so many plays.

I understand this is a big game for NIU for postseason purposes but I just dont see how they get into a BOWL . Would Ind State , EMU and Kent State and Miami Ohio at home are almost gimme wins . Then Toledo who has been terribly inconsistent and not all that good and BGreen who also has been inconsistent .

The fact NIU was competitive with Navy last year in the midst of a horrible season leads me to believe they wont take this team lightily . I also think one would have to agree that Navy doesnt quit looking at the last 2 4th Q comebacks .

Dobbs on the road is interesting especially with him throwing the ball.

Just doesnt see much of an edge for NIU here and the line seems off .....:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

The point about the Temple game is well taken . Dont we have to award Navy some sort of pass though for playing so poorly but winning anyway ?? I also the fact that HC coach said after the game I thought about going for 2 but elected to kick the XP and go to OT . The reasoning was the key as he said I know we had them reeling . I like to see a HC who actually has a clue about what is taking place beyond the X and O's . So that impressed me to hear him say that . That tells me he understands the flow of the game and understands the importance of momentum...

 

[SportsNut]

Navy has also won alot of games they shouldnt have statiscally speaking like Air Force and Temple even mix in @ WF and vs Rutgers into that arguement . However they still found ways to win which is good to know when your ctaching points .

Navy's schedule is also so much tougher . SMU and Temple are probably the easiest games on the board . Temple is as good or better then probably about 5 or so of NIU's opponents. Navy's losses were Pitt , ND , @ Ball State and @ Duke .

One could argue that Navy played much better @ Ball State then NIU did with fairly comparable spreads as well. Only further showing that at best these teams are equal but chances are Navy spread wise ranks a tad stronger .

Navy also has not been anything but small dogs in most of those games ...

 

[TopDaddy]

But if you look back to last year, you will see the same exact situation against the same exact team.

Navy was 6-4 last year, slotted for their bowl game, and played NIU and beat them.

Year before, they were 7-3 with Army on deck and slotted for their bowl, and they won their game easily.

Dont know if any of this matters, but I do think Navy will give a full effort tonight.

:cheers:

These two examples are a bit different from tonight's game, in my humble opinion.

In '06, Navy went up against a 3-8 Army team as a 19 point favorite after already accepting a bowl bid. They beat Army by 12.
In "07, Navy played a 2-8 No. Illy team that had just come off a game where they played out of their minds to beat Kent State. Navy was a 16' point favorite and won the game by 11.

These were two horrible teams that faced a seemingly uninspired Navy squad right after a bowl acceptance.

Tonight, a Navy team comes in that isn't as good as the past two squads that have played in this position, and they play a much better team in Northern Illinois, who is 6-5, but they've won every game they are supposed to win (5-1 SU when favored, and they had no business being favored against CMU. I realize that they are not great ATS, but all they basically have to do is win this game, and statistics are on the side of a W ATS as well)

I know that Navy typically plays inspired all game, most every game, but they've just not done good enough in this position in past years for me to play them. GL Vanzack

 

[vanzack]

How bad was that coaching job by Kill of NIU?

Down 16-0, he gets the ball late in the 3rd, runs 9.5 mins off of the clock, calls all 3 timeouts, has 12 players on the field for 1 play, and gets no points. Never snaps the ball early, almost appears to be running the clock.

Also, that was the quietest crowd at any event since the archery competition at the olympics.

 

[nawlins51]

Navy hit for us Vanzack. NIU is lucky Navy didn't drop 30 on that ass with a shutout.Congrats if you played it.

 

[scraps@midnight]

the navy cats where rockin'. only about a handfull grabbed those dollar ticks i guess. even me being on navy, it was painful to watch niu coaching...agreed!

 

[3rd & Long]

How bad was that coaching job by Kill of NIU?

Down 16-0, he gets the ball late in the 3rd, runs 9.5 mins off of the clock, calls all 3 timeouts, has 12 players on the field for 1 play, and gets no points. Never snaps the ball early, almost appears to be running the clock.

Also, that was the quietest crowd at any event since the archery competition at the olympics.

Expected a better effort from a team that came back from the dead to lose in OT a few weeks ago.

Nice hit, I juiced out tonight.

 

[TopDaddy]

Yeah, I was way wrong about how that one was to play out. Horrible coaching and execution by the players.