Finding Winners by Finding Losers in Nations League Play
The Nations League kicks off on Thursday afternoon with Germany versus France. But why sweat out a hard game like that one when three really bad teams offer more betting value?
A new national-league competition begins this Thursday when Germany faces defending World Cup champion France. This tournament hasn’t been advertised nearly as well as the World Cup, but chalk that up to bad marketing and not to the level of quality to be seen on the pitch. This tournament is important because two teams can earn a ticket to the EURO cup in 2020.
Here are the groups:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The official result of the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NationsLeague?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#NationsLeague</a> draw!
<a href="https://t.co/H1fPteK7M1">pic.twitter.com/H1fPteK7M1</a></p>— UEFA Nations League (@UEFAEURO) <a href="
">January 24, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Norway vs Cyprus
(Thursday, 1:45 ET)
I’m looking to fade Cyprus and bet on Norway at the Asian handicap (-1, 1.5). Norway is 9-0 in its last nine matches against Cyprus, winning eight of those matches by at least two goals. Norway has shown good form not just against punching bags like Cyprus, but against higher-qualty competition, as well. It has won all four of its friendlies in 2018, including a 4-1 victory against World Cup participant Australia and victories against World Cup participants Iceland and Panama. Norway will get to face Cyprus at home, where it has won four in a row. Cyprus, on the other hand, is a regular disaster, scoring only two goals in its last seven road matches. It has lost four of its last five matches (the one non-loss was a 0-0 draw), with its most recent match being a pathetic 3-0 loss against Jordan.
Cyrprus lacks the quality that Norway’s squad has, which boasts experience in top leagues such as the Bundesliga and Premiere League—i’m talking about guys like Josh King, who plasy for AFC Bournemouth and Mats Daehli, who played in the Bundesliga last season for Freiburg.
Gibraltar vs Macedonia
(Thursday, 1:45 ET)
Gibraltar is the next punching bag that I want to fade. But you’ll want to take Macedonia at the handicap because of the price. You can get Macedonia -3 at +200, while more modest alternatives exist for the more conservative bettors. Macedonia will be interested in winning by so many goals for the sake of upping its overall goal differential in the group and Macedonia is more than capable of winning by more than three goals. Gibraltar consists of semi-professional soccer players who pursue other professions besides soccer. The results speak for themselves: nine straight losses, 43 goals allowed—an average of more than four goals allowed per game.
Macedonia, meanwhile, has suffered one defeat in its past nine games, a tough one against perennial superpower Spain. It has the ability to compete with the best football clubs in the world, whereas Gibraltar, which last played in 2017, lost 4-0 to Greece, 6-0 at home to Estonia, etc.
Kazakhstan vs Georgia
(Thursday, 9 ET)
I see nice value with Kazakhstan, but be sure to bet this one before the early morning start time. Kazakhstan is undervalued by oddsmakers because of how tough it is at home, where its climate and geographic isolation make it difficult for even Poland and Romania, which competed at the Euro Cup in 2016, but only managed a draw there. Georgia has anyhow shown poor form on the road. It hasn’t experienced an away victory in its last six tries, but has, for example, lost at Jordan and, in its most recent match, at Luxembourg. Kazakhstan has shown much stronger form overall. Its last match, in May, was a 3-0 home victory against Azerbaijan. Kazakhstan has won two of its last three matches with both wins coming at home.
The Nations League kicks off on Thursday afternoon with Germany versus France. But why sweat out a hard game like that one when three really bad teams offer more betting value?
A new national-league competition begins this Thursday when Germany faces defending World Cup champion France. This tournament hasn’t been advertised nearly as well as the World Cup, but chalk that up to bad marketing and not to the level of quality to be seen on the pitch. This tournament is important because two teams can earn a ticket to the EURO cup in 2020.
Here are the groups:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The official result of the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NationsLeague?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#NationsLeague</a> draw!
<a href="https://t.co/H1fPteK7M1">pic.twitter.com/H1fPteK7M1</a></p>— UEFA Nations League (@UEFAEURO) <a href="
">January 24, 2018</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Norway vs Cyprus
(Thursday, 1:45 ET)
I’m looking to fade Cyprus and bet on Norway at the Asian handicap (-1, 1.5). Norway is 9-0 in its last nine matches against Cyprus, winning eight of those matches by at least two goals. Norway has shown good form not just against punching bags like Cyprus, but against higher-qualty competition, as well. It has won all four of its friendlies in 2018, including a 4-1 victory against World Cup participant Australia and victories against World Cup participants Iceland and Panama. Norway will get to face Cyprus at home, where it has won four in a row. Cyprus, on the other hand, is a regular disaster, scoring only two goals in its last seven road matches. It has lost four of its last five matches (the one non-loss was a 0-0 draw), with its most recent match being a pathetic 3-0 loss against Jordan.
Cyrprus lacks the quality that Norway’s squad has, which boasts experience in top leagues such as the Bundesliga and Premiere League—i’m talking about guys like Josh King, who plasy for AFC Bournemouth and Mats Daehli, who played in the Bundesliga last season for Freiburg.
Gibraltar vs Macedonia
(Thursday, 1:45 ET)
Gibraltar is the next punching bag that I want to fade. But you’ll want to take Macedonia at the handicap because of the price. You can get Macedonia -3 at +200, while more modest alternatives exist for the more conservative bettors. Macedonia will be interested in winning by so many goals for the sake of upping its overall goal differential in the group and Macedonia is more than capable of winning by more than three goals. Gibraltar consists of semi-professional soccer players who pursue other professions besides soccer. The results speak for themselves: nine straight losses, 43 goals allowed—an average of more than four goals allowed per game.
Macedonia, meanwhile, has suffered one defeat in its past nine games, a tough one against perennial superpower Spain. It has the ability to compete with the best football clubs in the world, whereas Gibraltar, which last played in 2017, lost 4-0 to Greece, 6-0 at home to Estonia, etc.
Kazakhstan vs Georgia
(Thursday, 9 ET)
I see nice value with Kazakhstan, but be sure to bet this one before the early morning start time. Kazakhstan is undervalued by oddsmakers because of how tough it is at home, where its climate and geographic isolation make it difficult for even Poland and Romania, which competed at the Euro Cup in 2016, but only managed a draw there. Georgia has anyhow shown poor form on the road. It hasn’t experienced an away victory in its last six tries, but has, for example, lost at Jordan and, in its most recent match, at Luxembourg. Kazakhstan has shown much stronger form overall. Its last match, in May, was a 3-0 home victory against Azerbaijan. Kazakhstan has won two of its last three matches with both wins coming at home.
