Nationals vs. Phillies: MLB Best Bets
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 7:05 p.m. ET in Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
Patrick Corbin’s Lucky Start
On the surface, Washington starter Patrick Corbin seems to have pitched well in his last start, which came against Philadelphia.
A dive into the metrics shows, however, that he over-performed both his FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) and xFIP (like FIP, but adjusts for league-average ratio between fly balls and home runs).
This is one way of saying that the fact that he yielded an ERA of only 3.00 in his last contest against the Phillies was a statistical piece of fortune.
In that contest, his FIP was 5.31 and his xFIP was 5.09.
Corbin’s Regression
In just about every statistical category — ERA, FIP, xFIP, and so on — Corbin has regressed in relation to last season.
One thing to note is in tandem. On the one side, he’s failing to miss as many bats. He’s striking out fewer hitters per nine innings and generating a 3.4 percent lower rate of swinging strikes.
On the other side, in addition to yielding more contact, he’s yielding hard contact at a 11.3-percent higher rate.
It’s difficult to point to any one pitch as the culprit because each one is generating whiffs at a lower rate than it was last year. His change-up and curveball have each lost over 50 percent of its whiff rate, although he’s rarely focused on either pitch.
The problem is with Corbin and not with any one pitch, which is why we are seeing a bevy of other problems crop up across the board.
All of his pitches, except for his anyhow super slow curveball, have regressed in velocity from last year. Most are showing less movement. They are landing in the more middle spots of the strike zone with great frequency.
Also, his average spin rate is down significantly — 116 RPM — from last year. This may be the largest reason for his lessened strikeout ability — his pitches are a lot less deceptive regarding their movement.
I speculate that the root cause of Corbin’s struggles could be mechanical. His average horizontal release points this year resemble those of 2012 and 2016. Both were very bad seasons for him.
Corbin vs. Philly Batters
In addition to benefitting from luck in his last outing and regressing relative to last year, Corbin has a very negative history in Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Ballpark.
In four career starts in Philly, Corbin yields a 6.17 ERA.
Considering active Philly batters, look for Jean Segura and the streaking Rhys Hoskins to do well. Both hit over .270 and slug over .600 in their respective careers against Corbin.
It’s hard to draw conclusions from Bryce Harper’s numbers against Corbin because his performance level varies so drastically from year to year. He’s faced Corbin plenty of times in down years.
This year, Harper is dominant and especially so against lefties. He’s hitting .345 and slugging .759 against them.
Aaron Nola
Philadelphia starter Aaron Nola (3-0, 3.00 ERA) had an absolute down year in 2019 and the Nationals, multiple times, absolutely benefitted from his regression.
This year, though, Nola is performing very well and is, in some respects such as xFIP, better than he ever was.
He’s striking out more batters per nine innings than ever before. A big reason for his 12 strikeouts per nine innings is his change-up, which is whiffing batters at a 6.42 percent higher rate than last year.
Nola is also throwing this pitch with much greater frequency. While it’s typically a weapon reserved for opposite-handed batters, Nola relies on it when facing both lefties and righties.
His change-up has strong and pure arm-side movement. He locates it superbly, rarely touching the middle parts of the plate with it.
Instead, over 60 percent of its strikes land in the bottom row of the strike zone. Given this fact, batters often struggle to realize whether the pitch will end up in the strike zone or not.
Nola’s famous curveball is also back to being an amazing pitch. Whereas his change-up is yielding a .180 BA, his curveball with its distinct delivery is yielding a .152.
In addition to his fastball, which yields a .107 BA, Nola therefore has three superb pitches that he can rely on.
Nola vs Nationals Batters
Look for the strongly improved Nola to continue dominating at home where opponents are hitting .148 and slugging .273 in 26.1 innings this season.
Two hitters who he’ll thrive against include Adam Eaton and Trea Turner. In over 25 tries each, both hit under .200 against Nola.
The Verdict
Wheres Corbin has regressed this season, Nola has strongly improved.
Measured by recent performance averages, the same distinction can be applied to both lineups. Philadelphia’s includes a bevy of righties plus Harper who will challenge Corbin.
In contrast, Nola does not share Corbin’s historic struggles in Philadelphia and will cruise against Washington’s mostly slacking lineup.
Philadelphia’s bullpen is a catastrophe which you’ll want to avoid by placing a first-five wager on the Phillies.
Best Bet: Phillies First-Five ML
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 7:05 p.m. ET in Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
Patrick Corbin’s Lucky Start
On the surface, Washington starter Patrick Corbin seems to have pitched well in his last start, which came against Philadelphia.
A dive into the metrics shows, however, that he over-performed both his FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) and xFIP (like FIP, but adjusts for league-average ratio between fly balls and home runs).
This is one way of saying that the fact that he yielded an ERA of only 3.00 in his last contest against the Phillies was a statistical piece of fortune.
In that contest, his FIP was 5.31 and his xFIP was 5.09.
Corbin’s Regression
In just about every statistical category — ERA, FIP, xFIP, and so on — Corbin has regressed in relation to last season.
One thing to note is in tandem. On the one side, he’s failing to miss as many bats. He’s striking out fewer hitters per nine innings and generating a 3.4 percent lower rate of swinging strikes.
On the other side, in addition to yielding more contact, he’s yielding hard contact at a 11.3-percent higher rate.
It’s difficult to point to any one pitch as the culprit because each one is generating whiffs at a lower rate than it was last year. His change-up and curveball have each lost over 50 percent of its whiff rate, although he’s rarely focused on either pitch.
The problem is with Corbin and not with any one pitch, which is why we are seeing a bevy of other problems crop up across the board.
All of his pitches, except for his anyhow super slow curveball, have regressed in velocity from last year. Most are showing less movement. They are landing in the more middle spots of the strike zone with great frequency.
Also, his average spin rate is down significantly — 116 RPM — from last year. This may be the largest reason for his lessened strikeout ability — his pitches are a lot less deceptive regarding their movement.
I speculate that the root cause of Corbin’s struggles could be mechanical. His average horizontal release points this year resemble those of 2012 and 2016. Both were very bad seasons for him.
Corbin vs. Philly Batters
In addition to benefitting from luck in his last outing and regressing relative to last year, Corbin has a very negative history in Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Ballpark.
In four career starts in Philly, Corbin yields a 6.17 ERA.
Considering active Philly batters, look for Jean Segura and the streaking Rhys Hoskins to do well. Both hit over .270 and slug over .600 in their respective careers against Corbin.
It’s hard to draw conclusions from Bryce Harper’s numbers against Corbin because his performance level varies so drastically from year to year. He’s faced Corbin plenty of times in down years.
This year, Harper is dominant and especially so against lefties. He’s hitting .345 and slugging .759 against them.
Aaron Nola
Philadelphia starter Aaron Nola (3-0, 3.00 ERA) had an absolute down year in 2019 and the Nationals, multiple times, absolutely benefitted from his regression.
This year, though, Nola is performing very well and is, in some respects such as xFIP, better than he ever was.
He’s striking out more batters per nine innings than ever before. A big reason for his 12 strikeouts per nine innings is his change-up, which is whiffing batters at a 6.42 percent higher rate than last year.
Nola is also throwing this pitch with much greater frequency. While it’s typically a weapon reserved for opposite-handed batters, Nola relies on it when facing both lefties and righties.
His change-up has strong and pure arm-side movement. He locates it superbly, rarely touching the middle parts of the plate with it.
Instead, over 60 percent of its strikes land in the bottom row of the strike zone. Given this fact, batters often struggle to realize whether the pitch will end up in the strike zone or not.
Nola’s famous curveball is also back to being an amazing pitch. Whereas his change-up is yielding a .180 BA, his curveball with its distinct delivery is yielding a .152.
In addition to his fastball, which yields a .107 BA, Nola therefore has three superb pitches that he can rely on.
Nola vs Nationals Batters
Look for the strongly improved Nola to continue dominating at home where opponents are hitting .148 and slugging .273 in 26.1 innings this season.
Two hitters who he’ll thrive against include Adam Eaton and Trea Turner. In over 25 tries each, both hit under .200 against Nola.
The Verdict
Wheres Corbin has regressed this season, Nola has strongly improved.
Measured by recent performance averages, the same distinction can be applied to both lineups. Philadelphia’s includes a bevy of righties plus Harper who will challenge Corbin.
In contrast, Nola does not share Corbin’s historic struggles in Philadelphia and will cruise against Washington’s mostly slacking lineup.
Philadelphia’s bullpen is a catastrophe which you’ll want to avoid by placing a first-five wager on the Phillies.
Best Bet: Phillies First-Five ML
