Mets vs Nationals: Baseball Bet
New York Mets vs Washington Nationals
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
Steven Matz: False Impressions
Steven Matz (0-1, 3.18 ERA) will make his third start of the season for the Mets.
So far, some buzz is surrounding Matz. Besides his low ERA, he is drawing positive attention for his uptick in velocity.
Matz is primarily a sinker-throwing pitcher. Last year, his sinker averaged 93.61 mph. This year, it's averaging 95.06 mph.
While the positive attention is statistically supported, it is not statistically merited. ERA and velocity can be superficial statistics and they certainly seem to be in Matz’s case.
An emphasis on his ERA would cause one to overlook his 5.54 FIP and 4.00 xFIP, both of which are equal to or worse than his career averages.
FIP measures a pitcher’s individual performance, his performance independently of fielding. xFIP additionally adjusts for the league average home run rate.
Problems With Matz
His velocity may indicate his physical health. But higher velocity becomes problematic if it hinders good location.
Last year, 5.85 percent of his sinkers landed in the most middle spot on the strike zone.
This year, that percentage is up to 7.44.
It is easier for hitters to locate and make better contact with a pitch when it lands directly down the middle. Then, higher velocity is not what Matz wants because it allows for the batter to send his pitch with greater force in the opposite direction.
So far, Matz has allowed three home runs after two games. He is easily allowing more home runs than he ever has before.
Matz vs Nationals Batters
National batters match up well with Matz as a left-handed pitcher.
In 42 at-bats thus far this season, the Nats have accumulated the second-best BA against southpaws, .405.
Washington owns a collection of redoubtable righties who have seen Matz plenty and have amassed strong success against him.
Trea Turner, Starlin Castro, and Adam Eaton are each hitting over .300 against Matz.
Also look out for for Josh Harrison and Victor Robles who, in over five at-bats each, are hitting over .330 and slugging over .800 when Matz is the pitcher.
Who Will Start For Washington?
Right now, Washington’s starting pitcher is not officially announced.
But, since Stephen Strasburg is still recovering and rebuilding his fitness, it should be logically easy to surmise who his team’s next starter will be.
Erik Fedde was Washington’s last starting pitcher to take the mound. After Fedde’s previous start, Patrick Corbin pitched. So I think that Corbin will pitch for Washington on Tuesday.
Corbin vs Mets Batters
So far, the Mets are hitting .233 against left-handed pitchers.
Their history against Corbin does not offer any more promise.
In 133 at-bats, active New York batters are hitting .130 and slugging .322 against Corbin.
Jeff McNeil, for example, is 1-for-9 (.111) in his career facing Corbin while Robinson Cano is 2-for-11 (.182).
Why Is Corbin So Difficult To Hit?
Corbin, who allowed one run in 6.1 innings in his first start, is having his third strong season in a row.
One blatant fact is that Corbin is generating more strikeouts per nine innings.
He is striking out more batters because he is placing more emphasis on his slider with two strikes in the count.
It is wise for him to throw this pitch more often. Last year, opponents hit .160 against it.
His slider enjoys minimal vertical movement, which makes it more difficult to track.
It complements his fastball well by introducing a change of pace that batters have trouble adjusting to — his slider is 10 mph slower than his fastball, which is a unique velocity differential.
The Verdict
When odds come out, be sure to invest in Washington in some fashion.
My top bets are in this order, from favorite to least favorite: Nationals first-five money-line, Nationals first-five run-line, Nationals full-game money-line, Nationals full-game run-line.
If my favorite bet is chalked at -150 or higher, then I will select my next-favorite bet. Be sure to check out what low-juice sportsbooks like 5Dimes are offering.
With the third-best bullpen in baseball based on ERA, it’s quite reasonable to take the Nats on the full-game. But I prefer to focus on the match-up between the starting pitchers.
Best Bet: Nationals First-Five ML (Odds TBA)
New York Mets vs Washington Nationals
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
Steven Matz: False Impressions
Steven Matz (0-1, 3.18 ERA) will make his third start of the season for the Mets.
So far, some buzz is surrounding Matz. Besides his low ERA, he is drawing positive attention for his uptick in velocity.
Matz is primarily a sinker-throwing pitcher. Last year, his sinker averaged 93.61 mph. This year, it's averaging 95.06 mph.
While the positive attention is statistically supported, it is not statistically merited. ERA and velocity can be superficial statistics and they certainly seem to be in Matz’s case.
An emphasis on his ERA would cause one to overlook his 5.54 FIP and 4.00 xFIP, both of which are equal to or worse than his career averages.
FIP measures a pitcher’s individual performance, his performance independently of fielding. xFIP additionally adjusts for the league average home run rate.
Problems With Matz
His velocity may indicate his physical health. But higher velocity becomes problematic if it hinders good location.
Last year, 5.85 percent of his sinkers landed in the most middle spot on the strike zone.
This year, that percentage is up to 7.44.
It is easier for hitters to locate and make better contact with a pitch when it lands directly down the middle. Then, higher velocity is not what Matz wants because it allows for the batter to send his pitch with greater force in the opposite direction.
So far, Matz has allowed three home runs after two games. He is easily allowing more home runs than he ever has before.
Matz vs Nationals Batters
National batters match up well with Matz as a left-handed pitcher.
In 42 at-bats thus far this season, the Nats have accumulated the second-best BA against southpaws, .405.
Washington owns a collection of redoubtable righties who have seen Matz plenty and have amassed strong success against him.
Trea Turner, Starlin Castro, and Adam Eaton are each hitting over .300 against Matz.
Also look out for for Josh Harrison and Victor Robles who, in over five at-bats each, are hitting over .330 and slugging over .800 when Matz is the pitcher.
Who Will Start For Washington?
Right now, Washington’s starting pitcher is not officially announced.
But, since Stephen Strasburg is still recovering and rebuilding his fitness, it should be logically easy to surmise who his team’s next starter will be.
Erik Fedde was Washington’s last starting pitcher to take the mound. After Fedde’s previous start, Patrick Corbin pitched. So I think that Corbin will pitch for Washington on Tuesday.
Corbin vs Mets Batters
So far, the Mets are hitting .233 against left-handed pitchers.
Their history against Corbin does not offer any more promise.
In 133 at-bats, active New York batters are hitting .130 and slugging .322 against Corbin.
Jeff McNeil, for example, is 1-for-9 (.111) in his career facing Corbin while Robinson Cano is 2-for-11 (.182).
Why Is Corbin So Difficult To Hit?
Corbin, who allowed one run in 6.1 innings in his first start, is having his third strong season in a row.
One blatant fact is that Corbin is generating more strikeouts per nine innings.
He is striking out more batters because he is placing more emphasis on his slider with two strikes in the count.
It is wise for him to throw this pitch more often. Last year, opponents hit .160 against it.
His slider enjoys minimal vertical movement, which makes it more difficult to track.
It complements his fastball well by introducing a change of pace that batters have trouble adjusting to — his slider is 10 mph slower than his fastball, which is a unique velocity differential.
The Verdict
When odds come out, be sure to invest in Washington in some fashion.
My top bets are in this order, from favorite to least favorite: Nationals first-five money-line, Nationals first-five run-line, Nationals full-game money-line, Nationals full-game run-line.
If my favorite bet is chalked at -150 or higher, then I will select my next-favorite bet. Be sure to check out what low-juice sportsbooks like 5Dimes are offering.
With the third-best bullpen in baseball based on ERA, it’s quite reasonable to take the Nats on the full-game. But I prefer to focus on the match-up between the starting pitchers.
Best Bet: Nationals First-Five ML (Odds TBA)
