Forecasting Sunshine for Pitchers in Nats-Giants Finale
The Nats and Giants will try to conclude a three-game series Sunday afternoon despite the possibility of rain and thunder. The Nats are heavy chalk with their ace on the mound, but bettors should play the total.
San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals
MLB Pick: 1H Under
Max Scherzer (10-1, 1.95 ERA) is an auto-bet for Washington. Despite being heavy chalk, his team is yielding +7.3 units in his starts. In six home starts this season, he has yet to allow over two runs despite averaging over seven innings pitched.
The key for Scherzer has been to make his fastball more effective. It’s his favorite pitch and he throws it with 50% frequency. He’s reduced opposing slugging against it from .445 last season to .243 this season. His success derives mainly from his improved location. He leaves his fastball with two percent less frequency over the heart of the plate, but instead does a better job elevating it. Scherzer’s fastball possesses the 25th highest spin rate compared to over 550 other pitches. High spin rate gives his fastball the appearance of rising action so that batters are more likely to swing under it. So they're deceived by its location, which is more precise this year, in addition to being overwhelmed by its average 94 mph velocity.
Scherzer possesses two high-quality secondary pitches to prevent hitters from sitting on his fastball. Like against his fastball, they’re batting under .171 against his change-up and slider. His fastball is his most frequent pitch with two strikes, but he also utilizes his change-up in this scenario with over 20% frequency. The 10 mph disparity between these two pitches creates a significant velocity differential that keeps batters off-balance—if they expect a fastball, they’ll get frozen by his change-up and if they expect the latter, they’ll get overwhelmed by his fastball. He trusts his slider in all scenarios, which has always been an effective whiff pitch for him, even though it doesn’t have nearly as much horizontal movement as his versatile change-up. He locates it with nearly 50% frequency in the lowest-right square of the strike zone.
In 116 career at-bats, San Fran batters haven’t been able to figure out Scherzer. Their career BA is .190, with only three of their batters hitting above .200, against Scherzer. Their three leading hitters—minus the injured Brandon Belt— are a combined 4-for-21 against him.
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Derek Holland (3-6, 4.91 ERA) counters for the Giants. Holland relies on a variety of pitches—he throws all five with over 10 percent frequency. This variety allows him to focus on certain pitches depending on who he’s facing. For example, he pitched very well against Arizona even though the Diamondbacks have solid numbers against southpaw pitchers. He did this by throwing his fastball with 41% frequency, which was smart, because Zona ranks below-average in slugging against the fastball thrown by lefties.
The Nats’ numbers against lefties are vastly inflated by facing different guys making their first career start. Against San Diego’s Robbie Erlin, they produced six runs in four innings and they slammed Tampa Bay’s Jonny Venters for five runs in 0.1 innings. Despite this help, the Nats rank 20th in slugging against lefties. Discounting Venters alone, the Nats rank 24th in slugging against lefties. Against Holland’s three favorite pitches, the fastball, sinker, and curveball, the Nats rank 22nd in slugging when they’re thrown by lefties. So Holland, who’s an experienced starter unlike Erlin and Venters, will find the right mixture of pitches which will work against the Nats.
Washington is yielding -7.8 units against lefties. Their lineup is still dealing with important injuries, such as to Daniel Murphy. Even superstar Bryce Harper is only batting .208 against lefties. The „under“ has hit in 63% of their games against southpaws.
The Nats and Giants will try to conclude a three-game series Sunday afternoon despite the possibility of rain and thunder. The Nats are heavy chalk with their ace on the mound, but bettors should play the total.
San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals
MLB Pick: 1H Under
Max Scherzer (10-1, 1.95 ERA) is an auto-bet for Washington. Despite being heavy chalk, his team is yielding +7.3 units in his starts. In six home starts this season, he has yet to allow over two runs despite averaging over seven innings pitched.
The key for Scherzer has been to make his fastball more effective. It’s his favorite pitch and he throws it with 50% frequency. He’s reduced opposing slugging against it from .445 last season to .243 this season. His success derives mainly from his improved location. He leaves his fastball with two percent less frequency over the heart of the plate, but instead does a better job elevating it. Scherzer’s fastball possesses the 25th highest spin rate compared to over 550 other pitches. High spin rate gives his fastball the appearance of rising action so that batters are more likely to swing under it. So they're deceived by its location, which is more precise this year, in addition to being overwhelmed by its average 94 mph velocity.
Scherzer possesses two high-quality secondary pitches to prevent hitters from sitting on his fastball. Like against his fastball, they’re batting under .171 against his change-up and slider. His fastball is his most frequent pitch with two strikes, but he also utilizes his change-up in this scenario with over 20% frequency. The 10 mph disparity between these two pitches creates a significant velocity differential that keeps batters off-balance—if they expect a fastball, they’ll get frozen by his change-up and if they expect the latter, they’ll get overwhelmed by his fastball. He trusts his slider in all scenarios, which has always been an effective whiff pitch for him, even though it doesn’t have nearly as much horizontal movement as his versatile change-up. He locates it with nearly 50% frequency in the lowest-right square of the strike zone.
In 116 career at-bats, San Fran batters haven’t been able to figure out Scherzer. Their career BA is .190, with only three of their batters hitting above .200, against Scherzer. Their three leading hitters—minus the injured Brandon Belt— are a combined 4-for-21 against him.
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Derek Holland (3-6, 4.91 ERA) counters for the Giants. Holland relies on a variety of pitches—he throws all five with over 10 percent frequency. This variety allows him to focus on certain pitches depending on who he’s facing. For example, he pitched very well against Arizona even though the Diamondbacks have solid numbers against southpaw pitchers. He did this by throwing his fastball with 41% frequency, which was smart, because Zona ranks below-average in slugging against the fastball thrown by lefties.
The Nats’ numbers against lefties are vastly inflated by facing different guys making their first career start. Against San Diego’s Robbie Erlin, they produced six runs in four innings and they slammed Tampa Bay’s Jonny Venters for five runs in 0.1 innings. Despite this help, the Nats rank 20th in slugging against lefties. Discounting Venters alone, the Nats rank 24th in slugging against lefties. Against Holland’s three favorite pitches, the fastball, sinker, and curveball, the Nats rank 22nd in slugging when they’re thrown by lefties. So Holland, who’s an experienced starter unlike Erlin and Venters, will find the right mixture of pitches which will work against the Nats.
Washington is yielding -7.8 units against lefties. Their lineup is still dealing with important injuries, such as to Daniel Murphy. Even superstar Bryce Harper is only batting .208 against lefties. The „under“ has hit in 63% of their games against southpaws.
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