Nationals vs Braves: MLB Best Bets
Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves
Wednesday, August 19, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET in Truist Park in Cumberland, Georgia
A Professional Pitcher?
Kyle Wright (0-3, 7.20 ERA) makes his fifth start of the season for Atlanta.
In several respects, Wright is struggling to find a secure professional footing.
Even things that he did well in the minors — like throwing strikes — have become sources of struggle for him in the majors.
Throwing strikes is, in my mind, one of the most important factors for predicting a young pitcher’s success.
Every pitcher who makes it professionally has good enough stuff. The key for a pitcher is control.
Whereas Wright allowed 2.80 walks per nine innings in his last Triple A season, he is currently allowing a very ridiculous 9.60 walks per nine innings.
This statistic means that, on average, his opponent gets at least one baserunner per inning without having to make contact with a pitch.
Only 35.8 percent of his pitches find the strike zone. He isn’t going to save himself by reliably forcing batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone.
Lack Of Control
I have two theories that could explain Wright’s lack one control.
My first theory has to do with mechanics.
The vertical and horizontal release points of his pitches vary strongly from game to game.
Such inconsistency could indicate a discomfort with his delivery. He may still be looking for a repeatable delivery.
As for my second theory, pitch percentages indicate that he is very strongly emphasizing the borders of the strike zone.
In other words, Wright is a plate nibbler.
He lacks the confidence to throw too close to the middle of the strike zone. So he tries to throw pitches that just barely land for strikes and repeatedly fails to satisfy this difficult ambition.
This lack of confidence in throwing strikes could reflect his lack of confidence in his stuff.
Opponents are, in particular, tattooing his fastball, which is his second-favorite pitch by frequency.
They are batting .368 against it while slugging .526.
Wright vs Nationals Batters
When betting the „over,“ I normally like to rely on match-up statistics in favor of both lineups.
But these become irrelevant with a vastly unproven, struggling pitcher like Wright on the mound.
For example, the Rays rank towards the bottom in hitting the fastball and slider (Wright’s favorite pitches) from righties.
But, they generated five runs in 2.2 innings against Wright, who also walked them three times.
One Washington hitter to look out for is Victor Robles, who is 2-for-3 with a double in his career against Wright.
Erick Fedde’s Deflated ERA
Currently, Erick Fedde (4-2, 2.55 ERA) seems to be pitching well for the Nationals.
But a deeper statistical dive tells a different story.
His FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) is 5.57 while his xFIP (like FIP, but adjusts for league average home run rate) is nearly the same.
He has been statistically fortunate to yield a BABIP (batting average of balls in play) of only .250 despite allowing hard contact on close to every other pitch.
Moreover, he is stranding baserunners at an 86.8 percent rate, which is unsustainably high.
Trend
While, at some point, the rate at which he’s stranding baserunners will sink, it does not follow that this stranded rate will sink tonight.
One reason why I do think that Braves batters will score a lot of runs tonight is the following trend:
In four of the last five starts immediately following one in which Fedde allowed zero runs over multiple innings, Fedde yielded an FIP over 5.00.
Fedde rarely performs well in consecutive long outings.
Fedde vs Atlanta Batters
This trend is unsurprising given the fact that Fedde has only one trusted pitch. Ideally, a starter has at least three positive pitches.
But Fedde relies on his sinker with over 60 percent frequency. Its movement is decent. Its location appears okay when one overlooks its very high ball rate. But this pitch is largely all he has to offer.
I expect Atlanta to thrive tonight because it ranks sixth in slugging .559 against Fedde’s favorite pitch, the sinker, from righties.
Fedde doesn’t utilize the sorts of change-of-pace pitches (like a curveball or change-up) that one typically employs in order to tame opposite-handed batters.
So I expect opposite-handed batters to thrive against Fedde and Atlanta has plenty of good ones.
Look out for star Freddie Freeman, who is slugging .547 against righties and slugging .500 at home.
The Verdict
Tonight's contest features a pair of uninspiring pitchers, one who can’t throw a strike and the other who throws strikes, but which remain mostly subpar sinkers.
While Wright’s professional foothold is tenuous if at all existent, Fedde is likely to struggle tonight given, for starters, his match-up disadvantage.
I will bet on the first-five over in order to focus on both starting pitchers.
Best Bet: First-Five Over (Odds TBA)
Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves
Wednesday, August 19, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET in Truist Park in Cumberland, Georgia
A Professional Pitcher?
Kyle Wright (0-3, 7.20 ERA) makes his fifth start of the season for Atlanta.
In several respects, Wright is struggling to find a secure professional footing.
Even things that he did well in the minors — like throwing strikes — have become sources of struggle for him in the majors.
Throwing strikes is, in my mind, one of the most important factors for predicting a young pitcher’s success.
Every pitcher who makes it professionally has good enough stuff. The key for a pitcher is control.
Whereas Wright allowed 2.80 walks per nine innings in his last Triple A season, he is currently allowing a very ridiculous 9.60 walks per nine innings.
This statistic means that, on average, his opponent gets at least one baserunner per inning without having to make contact with a pitch.
Only 35.8 percent of his pitches find the strike zone. He isn’t going to save himself by reliably forcing batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone.
Lack Of Control
I have two theories that could explain Wright’s lack one control.
My first theory has to do with mechanics.
The vertical and horizontal release points of his pitches vary strongly from game to game.
Such inconsistency could indicate a discomfort with his delivery. He may still be looking for a repeatable delivery.
As for my second theory, pitch percentages indicate that he is very strongly emphasizing the borders of the strike zone.
In other words, Wright is a plate nibbler.
He lacks the confidence to throw too close to the middle of the strike zone. So he tries to throw pitches that just barely land for strikes and repeatedly fails to satisfy this difficult ambition.
This lack of confidence in throwing strikes could reflect his lack of confidence in his stuff.
Opponents are, in particular, tattooing his fastball, which is his second-favorite pitch by frequency.
They are batting .368 against it while slugging .526.
Wright vs Nationals Batters
When betting the „over,“ I normally like to rely on match-up statistics in favor of both lineups.
But these become irrelevant with a vastly unproven, struggling pitcher like Wright on the mound.
For example, the Rays rank towards the bottom in hitting the fastball and slider (Wright’s favorite pitches) from righties.
But, they generated five runs in 2.2 innings against Wright, who also walked them three times.
One Washington hitter to look out for is Victor Robles, who is 2-for-3 with a double in his career against Wright.
Erick Fedde’s Deflated ERA
Currently, Erick Fedde (4-2, 2.55 ERA) seems to be pitching well for the Nationals.
But a deeper statistical dive tells a different story.
His FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) is 5.57 while his xFIP (like FIP, but adjusts for league average home run rate) is nearly the same.
He has been statistically fortunate to yield a BABIP (batting average of balls in play) of only .250 despite allowing hard contact on close to every other pitch.
Moreover, he is stranding baserunners at an 86.8 percent rate, which is unsustainably high.
Trend
While, at some point, the rate at which he’s stranding baserunners will sink, it does not follow that this stranded rate will sink tonight.
One reason why I do think that Braves batters will score a lot of runs tonight is the following trend:
In four of the last five starts immediately following one in which Fedde allowed zero runs over multiple innings, Fedde yielded an FIP over 5.00.
Fedde rarely performs well in consecutive long outings.
Fedde vs Atlanta Batters
This trend is unsurprising given the fact that Fedde has only one trusted pitch. Ideally, a starter has at least three positive pitches.
But Fedde relies on his sinker with over 60 percent frequency. Its movement is decent. Its location appears okay when one overlooks its very high ball rate. But this pitch is largely all he has to offer.
I expect Atlanta to thrive tonight because it ranks sixth in slugging .559 against Fedde’s favorite pitch, the sinker, from righties.
Fedde doesn’t utilize the sorts of change-of-pace pitches (like a curveball or change-up) that one typically employs in order to tame opposite-handed batters.
So I expect opposite-handed batters to thrive against Fedde and Atlanta has plenty of good ones.
Look out for star Freddie Freeman, who is slugging .547 against righties and slugging .500 at home.
The Verdict
Tonight's contest features a pair of uninspiring pitchers, one who can’t throw a strike and the other who throws strikes, but which remain mostly subpar sinkers.
While Wright’s professional foothold is tenuous if at all existent, Fedde is likely to struggle tonight given, for starters, his match-up disadvantage.
I will bet on the first-five over in order to focus on both starting pitchers.
Best Bet: First-Five Over (Odds TBA)
