MLB Parlay Picks of the Day
Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Wednesday, April 14, 2021 at 1:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Worried About Adam Wainwright?
Cardinal starter Adam Wainwright admittedly has awful numbers against active Washington batters.
But you’ll have to dig deep into his past in order to locate the source of those bad numbers.
His last bad game against Washington took place back in 2017. Also, that game took place in Washington.
Waino is much better at home, where he last held the Nats to zero earned runs over seven innings in 2019.
In Waino’s last start, he allowed one run over five innings against Milwaukee.
But that result doesn’t matter so much as does his ability to regain the high spin rate of his pitches.
His curveball, for example, improved from 2654 RPM in his season opener to 2813 RPM against Milwaukee.
So Wainwright has regained his form and promises to keep his good form against a National lineup that ranks 19th in slugging from righties against his three favorite pitches, the sinker, curveball and cutter.
Joe Ross vs. Cardinal Batters
Cardinal batters have improved massively against the sinker thrown by righties.
In 2020, they ranked 26th in slugging .395 against this pitch from righties.
Currently, after seeing 281 sinkers so far from righties, they rank fifth in slugging .576 against this pitch from righties.
Their success against the sinker is crucial to note since it’s Joe Ross’s favorite pitch to throw.
St. Louis’ success against Ross will help the team secure a lead through five innings.
Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox
Wednesday, April 14, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Zach Plesac
One may fairly speculate whether Cleveland starting pitcher Zach Plesac owes his success thus far to the fact that his first two starts came against the lowly Detroit Tigers.
But we won’t learn too much about him tonight because he benefits from another favorable match-up tonight.
Plesac loves to throw his fastball, which got hit hard last year, but has been difficult for batters to hit this year.
One new aspect of his fastball is its improved horizontal movement. More movement has led to fewer hits allowed.
He matches up well with a White Sox lineup that is very righty-heavy. In 21 at-bats, righties have only two hits against Plesac so far.
Plesac also matches up well with the White Sox because they rank 27th in slugging .286 against his favorite pitch, the fastball from righties.
Carlos Rodon
White Sox starter Carlos Rodon is somebody I circled as being undervalued by MLB oddsmakers heading into this season.
Oddsmakers do not account for the considerable transformation that he’s undergone that is manifest in the strong improvement in fastball velocity.
His fastball is his favorite pitch. After this pitch averaged 92.8 MPH last year, it is averaging 95.4 MPH this year.
In general, his stuff looks so much better. So I expect him to build off of his solid first outing, especially against a Cleveland lineup that already only hits .209 and slugs .313 against him.
Rodon will duel with Plesac and help keep the first five innings low-scoring.
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Wednesday, April 14, 2021 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Jon Gray
Rockie starter Jon Gray does not look like the guy who will turn around Colorado’s brutal road trip.
In four road games so far, the Rockies are 0-4 with losses by one, two, four, and seven runs.
Look to fade Gray when he enters Dodger Stadium where he is 1-5 with a 6.84 ERA in his career.
His tough times in Dodger Stadium contribute to the fantastic numbers that Dodger batters enjoy against him.
In 120 at-bats, they hit .308 and slug .500 against him.
Look out for Corey Seager, for example, who’s 9-for-24 (.375) with three doubles and a homer against Gray.
Dustin May
Dodger starter Dustin May throws three pitches with over 20 percent frequency: a sinker, a four-seam fastball, and a cutter.
Rockie batters rank fourth-to-last in hitting .202 against these pitches from righties. They rank 20th in slugging .379 against them.
Colorado also has to try to hit these pitches away from their super hitter-friendly ballpark.
The cushion that Dodger batters can afford May will allow for a blowout Dodger win at home.
Parlay Verdict
An improved Wainwright will out-pitch Joe Ross, Plesac and Rodon will be locked into a pitcher’s duel, and Jon Gray will struggle again in Dodger Stadium while Dustin May secures a strong Dodger lead.
For the above reasons, parlay the Cardinals first-half ML, the Indians/White Sox first-half under, and the Dodgers run-line.
Best Bet: Parlay Cardinals First-Half ML, Indians/White Sox First-Half Under, Dodgers RL (Odds TBA)
Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Wednesday, April 14, 2021 at 1:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Worried About Adam Wainwright?
Cardinal starter Adam Wainwright admittedly has awful numbers against active Washington batters.
But you’ll have to dig deep into his past in order to locate the source of those bad numbers.
His last bad game against Washington took place back in 2017. Also, that game took place in Washington.
Waino is much better at home, where he last held the Nats to zero earned runs over seven innings in 2019.
In Waino’s last start, he allowed one run over five innings against Milwaukee.
But that result doesn’t matter so much as does his ability to regain the high spin rate of his pitches.
His curveball, for example, improved from 2654 RPM in his season opener to 2813 RPM against Milwaukee.
So Wainwright has regained his form and promises to keep his good form against a National lineup that ranks 19th in slugging from righties against his three favorite pitches, the sinker, curveball and cutter.
Joe Ross vs. Cardinal Batters
Cardinal batters have improved massively against the sinker thrown by righties.
In 2020, they ranked 26th in slugging .395 against this pitch from righties.
Currently, after seeing 281 sinkers so far from righties, they rank fifth in slugging .576 against this pitch from righties.
Their success against the sinker is crucial to note since it’s Joe Ross’s favorite pitch to throw.
St. Louis’ success against Ross will help the team secure a lead through five innings.
Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox
Wednesday, April 14, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Zach Plesac
One may fairly speculate whether Cleveland starting pitcher Zach Plesac owes his success thus far to the fact that his first two starts came against the lowly Detroit Tigers.
But we won’t learn too much about him tonight because he benefits from another favorable match-up tonight.
Plesac loves to throw his fastball, which got hit hard last year, but has been difficult for batters to hit this year.
One new aspect of his fastball is its improved horizontal movement. More movement has led to fewer hits allowed.
He matches up well with a White Sox lineup that is very righty-heavy. In 21 at-bats, righties have only two hits against Plesac so far.
Plesac also matches up well with the White Sox because they rank 27th in slugging .286 against his favorite pitch, the fastball from righties.
Carlos Rodon
White Sox starter Carlos Rodon is somebody I circled as being undervalued by MLB oddsmakers heading into this season.
Oddsmakers do not account for the considerable transformation that he’s undergone that is manifest in the strong improvement in fastball velocity.
His fastball is his favorite pitch. After this pitch averaged 92.8 MPH last year, it is averaging 95.4 MPH this year.
In general, his stuff looks so much better. So I expect him to build off of his solid first outing, especially against a Cleveland lineup that already only hits .209 and slugs .313 against him.
Rodon will duel with Plesac and help keep the first five innings low-scoring.
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Wednesday, April 14, 2021 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Jon Gray
Rockie starter Jon Gray does not look like the guy who will turn around Colorado’s brutal road trip.
In four road games so far, the Rockies are 0-4 with losses by one, two, four, and seven runs.
Look to fade Gray when he enters Dodger Stadium where he is 1-5 with a 6.84 ERA in his career.
His tough times in Dodger Stadium contribute to the fantastic numbers that Dodger batters enjoy against him.
In 120 at-bats, they hit .308 and slug .500 against him.
Look out for Corey Seager, for example, who’s 9-for-24 (.375) with three doubles and a homer against Gray.
Dustin May
Dodger starter Dustin May throws three pitches with over 20 percent frequency: a sinker, a four-seam fastball, and a cutter.
Rockie batters rank fourth-to-last in hitting .202 against these pitches from righties. They rank 20th in slugging .379 against them.
Colorado also has to try to hit these pitches away from their super hitter-friendly ballpark.
The cushion that Dodger batters can afford May will allow for a blowout Dodger win at home.
Parlay Verdict
An improved Wainwright will out-pitch Joe Ross, Plesac and Rodon will be locked into a pitcher’s duel, and Jon Gray will struggle again in Dodger Stadium while Dustin May secures a strong Dodger lead.
For the above reasons, parlay the Cardinals first-half ML, the Indians/White Sox first-half under, and the Dodgers run-line.
Best Bet: Parlay Cardinals First-Half ML, Indians/White Sox First-Half Under, Dodgers RL (Odds TBA)
