MLB Parlay Picks of the Day
Washington Nationals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Wednesday, April 28, 2021 at 7:07 p.m. ET at TD Ballpark in Dunedin, Florida
Steven Matz
Based purely on ERA, Blue Jay starter Steven Matz seems to be performing well.
But a deeper look shows this surface-level statistic to be deceptive.
Matz, a left-hander, has only faced one team that ranks in the upper half in slugging rate against left-handed pitchers.
Against that team, the Angels, he yielded 5.43 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding), which means that he performed poorly as an individual.
I like the Nationals tonight because they will be the second team that Matz will have faced this year that ranks highly against left-handed pitchers. Right now, the Nats own the eighth-highest slugging rate against them.
National batters are already comfortable with the types of pitches that Matz likes to throw. They rank eighth in slugging .481 against the sinker and change-up from lefties. These two pitches are Matz’s favorite ones to throw by far.
Because Matz used to pitch in the NL East as a member of the Mets, Washington hitters are also extra familiar with him.
In a combined total of 151 at-bats, they are hitting .272 and slugging .497 against him.
Look out, for example, for Josh Harrison, who’s 6-for-14 (.429) with a triple and two homers in his career against Matz.
Erick Fedde
National starter Erick Fedde will remain underrated because his catastrophic season-opening performance is still affecting his ERA, which remains very high.
But Fedde has calmed down. He’s allowing fewer runs, improving his strikeout-to-walk ratio, and limiting opposing hard contact.
I like him against Blue Jay batters because Toronto ranks 25th in slugging against the sinker and cutter from righties. These are Fedde’s two favorite pitches by far.
Fedde’s effort tonight will help make the Nats a live dog.
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Wednesday, April 28, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston
Zack Greinke
Astro starter Zack Greinke has been a model of consistency.
In every start except for one exception, he has allowed two runs or fewer while going at least six innings.
For this bet, we’ll only be concerned with how he performs through five innings.
His numbers against Mariner batters justify strong hope in Greinke tonight.
He has seen a lot of Mariner batters and has consistently accumulated success against them.
In a combined total of 87 at-bats, they are slugging .287 against Greinke. They have zero home runs against him and only four extra-base hits in total, all of which were doubles.
Justin Dunn
Mariner starter Justin Dunn has been undervalued. He is accumulating the highest total of units among Mariner starting pitchers.
The fact that Dunn is underrated helps explain why the total is so high for this game, despite the fact that Greinke is pitching.
Like any pitcher who makes it professionally, Dunn has good stuff. His average fastball velocity has improved by 2.2 mph this year and he can put batters away with his heavy-spin breaking pitches.
But now he is also showing greater control. In his past two games, he has lowered his walk rate dramatically.
With the type of stuff that he throws — primarily a fastball whose location he likes to mix and a curveball that he likes to throw low — he matches up well against Houston batters.
Astro batters will struggle tonight because they rank 23rd in slugging against Dunn’s two favorite pitches from righties.
Dunn will help secure a low-scoring first five innings in this game.
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
Tuesday, April 27, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
White Sox Offense vs. Casey Mize
To begin the season, the White Sox struggled massively against right-handed pitching.
But they have improved dramatically in this respect. So their season-long numbers against right-handed pitchers are still deflated and distorted by these early-season struggles.
Their recent hitting numbers, though, promise a strong performance tonight, especially because of who they’re facing.
They face Tiger starter Casey Mize, whose favorite pitches are not working for him, and who is struggling in general to limit opposing run totals.
Mize has allowed a combined total of 11 earned runs in his past two starts. In those two starts, he also allowed a combined total of five home runs.
This last statistic is promising news for White Sox slugger Yermin Mercedes, who has at least one hit in nine of his last 10 games.
Mercedes and his teammates will thrive tonight since, in the past week, they rank third in slugging .519 against Mize’s pitches from righties.
They are anyhow normally reliable in a game following a loss.
Carlos Rodon
Whereas Mize is struggling to find his professional footing, White Sox starter Carlos Rodon is having his career-best year.
In three starts, Rodon has allowed a combined total of one earned run.
He is thriving with increased pitch velocity and demonstrated comfort executing all three of his pitches.
Rodon will thrive tonight against a meager Tiger lineup that, by far, ranks last in slugging .259 against lefties.
Chicago’s massive edge in starting pitching will secure it a victory by multiple runs.
Parlay Verdict
Fedde will outduel Matz since the former matches up well wtih Toronto while the latter faces a National lineup that hits lefties in general, his pitches, and him specifically well.
Greinke will continue his historical dominance against Mariner batters, although Seattle’s starter will continue to prove the MLB Odds wrong for undervaluing him.
Rodon and Chicago’s strongly improved lineup will enjoy a clear edge and bounce back from yesterday’s loss to lowly Detroit.
For the above reasons, parlay the Nationals first-half ML, the Mariners/Astros first-half under, and the White Sox run-line.
Best Bet: Parlay Nationals first-half ML at +130, Mariners/Astros first-half under 4.5 at -115, White Sox RL at -110 at +721 odds with Bovada
Washington Nationals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Wednesday, April 28, 2021 at 7:07 p.m. ET at TD Ballpark in Dunedin, Florida
Steven Matz
Based purely on ERA, Blue Jay starter Steven Matz seems to be performing well.
But a deeper look shows this surface-level statistic to be deceptive.
Matz, a left-hander, has only faced one team that ranks in the upper half in slugging rate against left-handed pitchers.
Against that team, the Angels, he yielded 5.43 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding), which means that he performed poorly as an individual.
I like the Nationals tonight because they will be the second team that Matz will have faced this year that ranks highly against left-handed pitchers. Right now, the Nats own the eighth-highest slugging rate against them.
National batters are already comfortable with the types of pitches that Matz likes to throw. They rank eighth in slugging .481 against the sinker and change-up from lefties. These two pitches are Matz’s favorite ones to throw by far.
Because Matz used to pitch in the NL East as a member of the Mets, Washington hitters are also extra familiar with him.
In a combined total of 151 at-bats, they are hitting .272 and slugging .497 against him.
Look out, for example, for Josh Harrison, who’s 6-for-14 (.429) with a triple and two homers in his career against Matz.
Erick Fedde
National starter Erick Fedde will remain underrated because his catastrophic season-opening performance is still affecting his ERA, which remains very high.
But Fedde has calmed down. He’s allowing fewer runs, improving his strikeout-to-walk ratio, and limiting opposing hard contact.
I like him against Blue Jay batters because Toronto ranks 25th in slugging against the sinker and cutter from righties. These are Fedde’s two favorite pitches by far.
Fedde’s effort tonight will help make the Nats a live dog.
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Wednesday, April 28, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston
Zack Greinke
Astro starter Zack Greinke has been a model of consistency.
In every start except for one exception, he has allowed two runs or fewer while going at least six innings.
For this bet, we’ll only be concerned with how he performs through five innings.
His numbers against Mariner batters justify strong hope in Greinke tonight.
He has seen a lot of Mariner batters and has consistently accumulated success against them.
In a combined total of 87 at-bats, they are slugging .287 against Greinke. They have zero home runs against him and only four extra-base hits in total, all of which were doubles.
Justin Dunn
Mariner starter Justin Dunn has been undervalued. He is accumulating the highest total of units among Mariner starting pitchers.
The fact that Dunn is underrated helps explain why the total is so high for this game, despite the fact that Greinke is pitching.
Like any pitcher who makes it professionally, Dunn has good stuff. His average fastball velocity has improved by 2.2 mph this year and he can put batters away with his heavy-spin breaking pitches.
But now he is also showing greater control. In his past two games, he has lowered his walk rate dramatically.
With the type of stuff that he throws — primarily a fastball whose location he likes to mix and a curveball that he likes to throw low — he matches up well against Houston batters.
Astro batters will struggle tonight because they rank 23rd in slugging against Dunn’s two favorite pitches from righties.
Dunn will help secure a low-scoring first five innings in this game.
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
Tuesday, April 27, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
White Sox Offense vs. Casey Mize
To begin the season, the White Sox struggled massively against right-handed pitching.
But they have improved dramatically in this respect. So their season-long numbers against right-handed pitchers are still deflated and distorted by these early-season struggles.
Their recent hitting numbers, though, promise a strong performance tonight, especially because of who they’re facing.
They face Tiger starter Casey Mize, whose favorite pitches are not working for him, and who is struggling in general to limit opposing run totals.
Mize has allowed a combined total of 11 earned runs in his past two starts. In those two starts, he also allowed a combined total of five home runs.
This last statistic is promising news for White Sox slugger Yermin Mercedes, who has at least one hit in nine of his last 10 games.
Mercedes and his teammates will thrive tonight since, in the past week, they rank third in slugging .519 against Mize’s pitches from righties.
They are anyhow normally reliable in a game following a loss.
Carlos Rodon
Whereas Mize is struggling to find his professional footing, White Sox starter Carlos Rodon is having his career-best year.
In three starts, Rodon has allowed a combined total of one earned run.
He is thriving with increased pitch velocity and demonstrated comfort executing all three of his pitches.
Rodon will thrive tonight against a meager Tiger lineup that, by far, ranks last in slugging .259 against lefties.
Chicago’s massive edge in starting pitching will secure it a victory by multiple runs.
Parlay Verdict
Fedde will outduel Matz since the former matches up well wtih Toronto while the latter faces a National lineup that hits lefties in general, his pitches, and him specifically well.
Greinke will continue his historical dominance against Mariner batters, although Seattle’s starter will continue to prove the MLB Odds wrong for undervaluing him.
Rodon and Chicago’s strongly improved lineup will enjoy a clear edge and bounce back from yesterday’s loss to lowly Detroit.
For the above reasons, parlay the Nationals first-half ML, the Mariners/Astros first-half under, and the White Sox run-line.
Best Bet: Parlay Nationals first-half ML at +130, Mariners/Astros first-half under 4.5 at -115, White Sox RL at -110 at +721 odds with Bovada
