National Championship Discussion : #1 Alabama vs #11 Ohio State

I didn't have a lot of feelings on the OSU - Clemson game.

But the one thing I said was just because OSU didn't look good or play good vs NW didn't mean that they would do the same vs Clemson and it was actually an opportunity to buy low on OSU and sell high on Clemson (off avenging only loss of season vs ND in ACC Champ game).

Now, the way Ohio State looked tonight...it's going to be very difficult for them to duplicate that performance. Now is not the time to be buying Ohio State if you are a buy low type guy.

And Alabama, we all watched the game, we all know what Alabama is capable of...that game felt like kinda a ho-hum performance, they let up way early and now they are the ones you can actually buy low and they are probably feeling like "hey man, we got to put something better out there in the championship game".

Me making those things up doesn't actually handicap the Xs and Os and strengths and weaknesses, but when so often those types of fundamentals don't translate to actually winning bets, sometimes I feel like betting on perception of things works out just as well.
 
I've come to be pretty good betting live. Maybe no Hunt yet but making money. Seems the Oddsmakers throw out some stinkers a few times a game if you can discipline yourself to wait. So think that is what I'll do.

Don't trust the Bama D at all - still remember the Ole Miss game. One big thing is Fields health. Sure thought he had broken rib(s) but I guess not. I see a shootout.
 
s--k said:
I didn't have a lot of feelings on the OSU - Clemson game.

But the one thing I said was just because OSU didn't look good or play good vs NW didn't mean that they would do the same vs Clemson and it was actually an opportunity to buy low on OSU and sell high on Clemson (off avenging only loss of season vs ND in ACC Champ game).

Now, the way Ohio State looked tonight...it's going to be very difficult for them to duplicate that performance. Now is not the time to be buying Ohio State if you are a buy low type guy.

And Alabama, we all watched the game, we all know what Alabama is capable of...that game felt like kinda a ho-hum performance, they let up way early and now they are the ones you can actually buy low and they are probably feeling like "hey man, we got to put something better out there in the championship game".

Me making those things up doesn't actually handicap the Xs and Os and strengths and weaknesses, but when so often those types of fundamentals don't translate to actually winning bets, sometimes I feel like betting on perception of things works out just as well.
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half the time it works every time!!!

I didn’t like the NW reasoning. So many reasons I wouldn’t take anything away from a prior game like that, especially in division.
 
drawing conclusions from one game to the next is flawed. I do it sometimes, but you always have to throw a caveat in there, it can be used as part of reasoning, but it might also mean nothing.

A 3 win Miss State team beat Tulsa who Cincy barely beat so Georgia was going to win big vs Cincy.

It is never that easy.

Picking games is hard...reasons we make up can make it seem easier and we gravitate to that. Other times it is as simple as hearing one team has a long time respected defensive coordinator retiring and poof, there is the reason to bet a team.

I think the thing that gets some people in trouble, is how emphatic they are in their opinion of what is going to happen. Anything can happen...Alabama almost lost the first H today! It makes us feel good to have something confident and assertive to say, but the opposite can happen as well. It's nice to acknowledge that.

Ohio State can beat Alabama. Alabama can also win by 30. Anything can happen in these games, that is why there are upsets.
 
I rarely pretend to think I actually know what a outcome gonna be! Best I can hope for is a fairly reasonable guess that happens a little more often than it doesn’t. That why i scratch my head so often when hearing so many ppl sound so incredibly sure of a play. Dunno if that just their way of justifying the bet or what? The rare times im super confident tend to be the times im the most wrong, lol.
 
haven't watched bama extensively but I think ohio state has the better/stronger run offensive line game. My perception is this bama oline is great pass protection but not the maulers of ealrier teams. If ohio state can win both trenches . like they did tonight, that's a starting place.
 
lvmike32 said:
I've come to be pretty good betting live. Maybe no Hunt yet but making money. Seems the Oddsmakers throw out some stinkers a few times a game if you can discipline yourself to wait. So think that is what I'll do.

Don't trust the Bama D at all - still remember the Ole Miss game. One big thing is Fields health. Sure thought he had broken rib(s) but I guess not. I see a shootout.
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Bamas D has come miles from that game. Ohio St caught a number of breaks v Clemson. They certainly outplayed them, but so much went their way as well as all the revenge stuff. Alabama is too well coached. Give me Bama -7 all damn day yo... mac muthafuckin dre! (hoping someone gets this reference).
 
skanless13 said:
Bamas D has come miles from that game. Ohio St caught a number of breaks v Clemson. They certainly outplayed them, but so much went their way as well as all the revenge stuff. Alabama is too well coached. Give me Bama -7 all damn day yo... mac muthafuckin dre! (hoping someone gets this reference).
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I certainly wouldn't bet against Bama with only 7. But I still think OSU will move the ball on them really well and the game will be competitive. The announcers said it on the telecast, seems OSU is always most dangerous when they are not expected to win. But as I said, I'm becoming a big believer in just betting live and not getting cornered in by a pregame bet.
 
skanless13 said:
Bamas D has come miles from that game. Ohio St caught a number of breaks v Clemson. They certainly outplayed them, but so much went their way as well as all the revenge stuff. Alabama is too well coached. Give me Bama -7 all damn day yo... mac muthafuckin dre! (hoping someone gets this reference).
Click to expand...


you are obviously a bama homer so your view is quite a bit different than mine. but i didnt see osu catching any breaks last night... maybe a free 15 yards for an blantant targeting call, but it also lost them a down and clearly hampered fields accuracy as he showed he was able to toss more than 1 incompletion after the hit.. if anything i thought clemson caught a little luck just to get points on the board. so i would love to hear your opinion on that subject. also i find it amuzing that vegas opened the mythical clemson/ bama line at bama -4 before oho state dog walked Sunshine and crew. so wouldnt that make this line a tad overinflated?? public all of a sudden the right side this week?? asking for a friend

:badass:
 
Traderjoe123 said:
was it the 6 touchdowns on the 77% that made him a fraud?
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He is a one read QB that just happened to have receivers open all game. I still have yet to see him make one anticipatory throw. I give him credit for hitting his wide open receivers but he will get exposed as he did against both Northwestern and Indiana if his receivers don’t have 5 yards on the defender.
 
the sec is hot garbage this year... itll be interestingto see bama face a front 4 like ohio state. true game line on a neutral should be bama -3 or -4. public has inflated this line
 
brewers888 said:
He is a one read QB that just happened to have receivers open all game. I still have yet to see him make one anticipatory throw. I give him credit for hitting his wide open receivers but he will get exposed as he did against both Northwestern and Indiana if his receivers don’t have 5 yards on the defender.
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ill just assume you listen to too many talking heads... thats laughable. you should go watch more games than northwestern
 
Traderjoe123 said:
the sec is hot garbage this year... itll be interestingto see bama face a front 4 like ohio state. true game line on a neutral should be bama -3 or -4. public has inflated this line
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The SEC may not be strong this year but what exactly is the Big Ten.
 
Traderjoe123 said:
ill just assume you listen to too many talking heads... thats laughable. you should go watch more games than northwestern
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I don’t listen to any analysts. I have watched Fields play a ton and I see the same things every time. He takes advantage of having superior athletes who are constantly wide open and can’t read a defense to save his life.

Haskins who we all know sucks actually had better college stats. I commend him for hitting his open guys last night but he will be exposed big time when he actually has to make throws into tight windows. Alabama has been awful defensively all year so they may not expose this fraud but the flop will be big once he is in the NFL and actually has to make plays on his own.
 
brewers888 said:
I don’t listen to any analysts. I have watched Fields play a ton and I see the same things every time. He takes advantage of having superior athletes who are constantly wide open and can’t read a defense to save his life.

Haskins who we all know sucks actually had better college stats. I commend him for hitting his open guys last night but he will be exposed big time when he actually has to make throws into tight windows. Alabama has been awful defensively all year so they may not expose this fraud but the flop will be big once he is in the NFL and actually has to make plays on his own.
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haskins was great at dump off crossing routes that went for 80 yards and benefited greatly from and his largest issue as a pro is his immaturity and his practice habits. im not sure how the J Fields i see runs through all of his progressions and actually it tends to get him in trouble because he almost refuses to take off and run at times. he also fits balls into rediculous windows. i would love to sit down with you and show you some tape. but my best explanation is his TD to Farrel last night with the linebacker draped all over him. im not sure how more covered a guy could get.

i think Fields real issue against northwestern wasnt his accuracy it was his trust in not having Olave AND missing reps because of Covid the disease that doesnt exist in the SEC..... So ill guess that you think Trever Lawrence is a fraud also?? i mean you would have to since they are the top 2 qbs in the country
 
Traderjoe123 said:
the sec is hot garbage this year... itll be interestingto see bama face a front 4 like ohio state. true game line on a neutral should be bama -3 or -4. public has inflated this line
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You talking about Bama Offensive Line?
More than capable, trust that.
7’ seems right.
Good Luck. Your squad will need it.
Im an LSU fan so you won’t get Bama fan shit from me. I am pretty sure while Bama D isn’t what it was in the past, it’ll be considerably better than what your Buckeyes faced last night
 
I like Ohio State as a big dog.....they usually do pretty well. Do some research and take a look at how they have done...... while I look in my fat wallet.
 
Traderjoe123 said:
you are obviously a bama homer so your view is quite a bit different than mine. but i didnt see osu catching any breaks last night... maybe a free 15 yards for an blantant targeting call, but it also lost them a down and clearly hampered fields accuracy as he showed he was able to toss more than 1 incompletion after the hit.. if anything i thought clemson caught a little luck just to get points on the board. so i would love to hear your opinion on that subject. also i find it amuzing that vegas opened the mythical clemson/ bama line at bama -4 before oho state dog walked Sunshine and crew. so wouldnt that make this line a tad overinflated?? public all of a sudden the right side this week?? asking for a friend

:badass:
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I was referring to the losses on D... the targetting call, the other 1st half targetting penalty from the game prior, whatever Ettiene was dealing with, etc, etc.

Btw, bama now -8.5.
 
lvmike32 said:
I certainly wouldn't bet against Bama with only 7. But I still think OSU will move the ball on them really well and the game will be competitive. The announcers said it on the telecast, seems OSU is always most dangerous when they are not expected to win. But as I said, I'm becoming a big believer in just betting live and not getting cornered in by a pregame bet.
Click to expand...
Ohio State will definitely be able to move the ball and likely score at least 24. Bama will score at least 34.
 
Traderjoe123 said:
you are obviously a bama homer so your view is quite a bit different than mine. but i didnt see osu catching any breaks last night... maybe a free 15 yards for an blantant targeting call, but it also lost them a down and clearly hampered fields accuracy as he showed he was able to toss more than 1 incompletion after the hit.. if anything i thought clemson caught a little luck just to get points on the board. so i would love to hear your opinion on that subject. also i find it amuzing that vegas opened the mythical clemson/ bama line at bama -4 before oho state dog walked Sunshine and crew. so wouldnt that make this line a tad overinflated?? public all of a sudden the right side this week?? asking for a friend

:badass:
Click to expand...
And since you're so confident, let me know if you'd like to make a straight up bet on the winner of the game. I've got the Tide.
 
I have leans towards bama but my biggest concern at this point is that they let Notre dame hang around. As much as I still know Ohio state has weaknesses, in my mind they are much better than Notre dame.

If I can get bama -7 I probably will but Ohio state + 8 or more I can’t stop thinking bama could win but not cover like Notre Dame.

no matter what I don’t think anyone should bet this game either way til later because of Covid. GL
 
I am however with skanless and I will take bama straight up for $500 of that if anyone is interested. GL
 
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