NASCAR Cup Series at Dover: Saturday Top Bet Edition
NASCAR Cup Series: Drydene 311
Saturday, August 22, 2020 at 4 p.m. ET (NBCSN) at Dover International Speedway in Dover, Delaware
Race Info
This weekend, we get the benefit of another NASCAR doubleheader. The race on Saturday and the race on Sunday both take place at Dover International Speedway.
NASCAR Cup Series’ Drydene 311 is so called because, in completing 311 laps, drivers will accumulate 311 miles.
There are three Stages. Stage 1 ends at Lap 70, Stage 2 at Lap 185, and Stage 3 at Lap 311.
Track Info
Partly because of Dover International Speedway’s length — one mile — it has been coined as „The Monster Mile.“
In recent years, drivers have expressed safety-related concerns.
Between the speeds that cars possibly reach and the narrowness of the track in certain critical areas, it seems relatively likely that a driver crashes hard into a wall especially while trying to make a pass.
My point that passing is hard at Dover seems to be substantiated statistically in that drivers’ average start position coincides comparably often with their average finish position.
For example, four of the top seven drivers in recent history at Dover have an average finishing position that is within .63 places of their average starting spot.
Given this detail, I think that starting lineup will be relatively important to know before betting.
While this detail should not change who we bet on, it possibly should motivate us to increase or decrease the size of our wager on our driver of choice.
The norm since COVID-19 has been for starting position to be determined based on owner points and random draw. But this norm has been discarded.
Rule Changes: Staring Lineup and Choose Rule
Starting lineup is no longer determined by random draw. Instead, starting position is much more performance-based.
In the calculation, owner points will be weighted at 35%, finishing position in the last race at 50%, and fastest lap at 15%.
This new rule change, especially for Dover, makes it harder to want to invest in long-shot betting options.
However, this rule change should help my favorite driver for Saturday’s race, Martin Truex Jr.
Truex Jr. ranks second in owner points and finished third in NASCAR’s last race.
NASCAR’s second rule change is the addition of the choose rule. We last saw this rule in effect at the All-Star Race.
The choose rue is important for when there is a caution.
In this situation, the driver may choose in which lane he restarts. He’ll decide between restarting in his preferred lane or restarting with stronger track position.
False Friend
One driver who you may be invested in to win or to thrive in the match-ups posted by oddsmakers in Chase Elliott.
Given his history at Dover, Elliott will be one of the more heavily favored options.
However, Elliott just won his last race and he tends to struggle in the race immediately following a race which he had won.
After winning at Charlotte, he finished 22nd at Bristol.
He won the All-Star Race. But in the following race, he didn’t make the top 10.
My Guy
I want to invest in Martin Truex Jr. for two reasons: form and track history.
Truex Jr. has been incredibly consistent from race to race.
In all five races since Texas on July 19, he has finished in third place.
He stands out as a betting option for Saturday because he tends to thrive at Dover.
Out of every driver, Truex Jr. owns the best average finishing position — 5.6 -- in the past 10 races at Dover.
The Verdict
It may be tempting to bet on Chase Elliott because his victory last week remains fresh in our minds. But he tends to disappoint in the race following a win.
Truex Jr. shows solid form as he has earned five top-three finishes in a row. Given his superior history at Dover, he will be our top betting option.
Look out for Bovada to release its NASCAR betting odds early. In match-ups, look to favor Truex Jr. over Elliott if that bet is available. Also take Truex Jr. to win.
Best Bet: Martin Truex Jr. To Win (Odds TBA)
NASCAR Cup Series: Drydene 311
Saturday, August 22, 2020 at 4 p.m. ET (NBCSN) at Dover International Speedway in Dover, Delaware
Race Info
This weekend, we get the benefit of another NASCAR doubleheader. The race on Saturday and the race on Sunday both take place at Dover International Speedway.
NASCAR Cup Series’ Drydene 311 is so called because, in completing 311 laps, drivers will accumulate 311 miles.
There are three Stages. Stage 1 ends at Lap 70, Stage 2 at Lap 185, and Stage 3 at Lap 311.
Track Info
Partly because of Dover International Speedway’s length — one mile — it has been coined as „The Monster Mile.“
In recent years, drivers have expressed safety-related concerns.
Between the speeds that cars possibly reach and the narrowness of the track in certain critical areas, it seems relatively likely that a driver crashes hard into a wall especially while trying to make a pass.
My point that passing is hard at Dover seems to be substantiated statistically in that drivers’ average start position coincides comparably often with their average finish position.
For example, four of the top seven drivers in recent history at Dover have an average finishing position that is within .63 places of their average starting spot.
Given this detail, I think that starting lineup will be relatively important to know before betting.
While this detail should not change who we bet on, it possibly should motivate us to increase or decrease the size of our wager on our driver of choice.
The norm since COVID-19 has been for starting position to be determined based on owner points and random draw. But this norm has been discarded.
Rule Changes: Staring Lineup and Choose Rule
Starting lineup is no longer determined by random draw. Instead, starting position is much more performance-based.
In the calculation, owner points will be weighted at 35%, finishing position in the last race at 50%, and fastest lap at 15%.
This new rule change, especially for Dover, makes it harder to want to invest in long-shot betting options.
However, this rule change should help my favorite driver for Saturday’s race, Martin Truex Jr.
Truex Jr. ranks second in owner points and finished third in NASCAR’s last race.
NASCAR’s second rule change is the addition of the choose rule. We last saw this rule in effect at the All-Star Race.
The choose rue is important for when there is a caution.
In this situation, the driver may choose in which lane he restarts. He’ll decide between restarting in his preferred lane or restarting with stronger track position.
False Friend
One driver who you may be invested in to win or to thrive in the match-ups posted by oddsmakers in Chase Elliott.
Given his history at Dover, Elliott will be one of the more heavily favored options.
However, Elliott just won his last race and he tends to struggle in the race immediately following a race which he had won.
After winning at Charlotte, he finished 22nd at Bristol.
He won the All-Star Race. But in the following race, he didn’t make the top 10.
My Guy
I want to invest in Martin Truex Jr. for two reasons: form and track history.
Truex Jr. has been incredibly consistent from race to race.
In all five races since Texas on July 19, he has finished in third place.
He stands out as a betting option for Saturday because he tends to thrive at Dover.
Out of every driver, Truex Jr. owns the best average finishing position — 5.6 -- in the past 10 races at Dover.
The Verdict
It may be tempting to bet on Chase Elliott because his victory last week remains fresh in our minds. But he tends to disappoint in the race following a win.
Truex Jr. shows solid form as he has earned five top-three finishes in a row. Given his superior history at Dover, he will be our top betting option.
Look out for Bovada to release its NASCAR betting odds early. In match-ups, look to favor Truex Jr. over Elliott if that bet is available. Also take Truex Jr. to win.
Best Bet: Martin Truex Jr. To Win (Odds TBA)
