NASCAR at Daytona (Coke Zero Sugar 400) Preview Article

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NASCAR Cup Series at Daytona Top Bet



NASCAR Cup Series: Coke Zero Sugar 400
Saturday, August 29, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC) at Daytona International Speedway



Race Info

Saturday’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 is so-called because, in completing 160 laps on Daytona International Speedway’s 2.5-mile track, drivers will have accumulated 400 miles.

There are three Stages: Stage 1 concludes at Lap 50, Stage 2 at Lap 100, and Stage 3 at Lap 160.

Regular Season Finale

NASCAR's Coke Zero Sugar 400 on Saturday will be the final regular season race before the playoffs begin.

So expect the most intense race of the season because multiple drivers have entered into a do-or-die situation.

To explain, 16 different drivers qualify for NASCAR’s playoffs.

A driver automatically qualifies when he wins a race — as long as more than 16 different drivers do not win.

If fewer than 16 different drivers win, then point standings determine which drivers occupy the remaining playoff spots.

Heading into Saturday’s drama, 13 drivers have qualified for the playoffs. Clint Bowyer is probably safe right now in 14th place.

But some other drivers are right on the edge of qualification. These include Jimmie Johnson, William Byron, and Matt DiBenedetto.

This race will be intense from the beginning because the first two Stages as well offer opportunities for points.

For my NASCAR wagers, I have been continually handicapping NASCAR without being scared off by any driver who had already qualified for the playoffs.

I don’t regret this strategy and I will stick to it for Saturday’s event.

However, if you are looking for somewhat of a long-shot wager, I recommend Jimmie Johnson. At BetOnline, you can grab him at +500 to finish in the top three.

Johnson presents an enticing wager opportunity because he absolutely needs to race well on Saturday, arguably more so than any of the drivers who already qualified.

He already has a strong history at Daytona’s International Speedway where he’s achieved as many wins (three) as any other active NASCAR driver — Denny Hamlin is the other driver with three wins at Daytona International Speedway.

His history at Daytona is stronger based on average finishing position and based on career accolades than that of his nearest, do-or-die competitors.

Ruling Out Candidates

In terms of picking a realistic winner for Saturday, Denny Hamlin seems to be the obvious choice given the fact that he is enjoying red-hot driving form right now.

Hamlin is probably Saturday's most favored driver also because he won the last race on Daytona’s International Speedway (— the last race at Daytona was on its road course, which is different).

But I want to stay away from Hamlin on Saturday because it’s extremely hard to win back-to-back at Daytona. (Jimmie Johnson, in 2013, is the most recent driver to do achieve this feat.)

Hamlin has flopped both times when trying to win back-to-back on this track. He finished 17th and then, in 2019, 26th in his last two attempts.

I also want to stay away from Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch. The former has finished outside of the top 10 in seven of his last eight attempts at Daytona International Speedway, the latter in six of his last seven at this track.

Be sure to stay far away from Brad Keselowski given his awful average finishing position (18.02) here. He has seven straight finishes outside the top 10 at Daytona International Speedway.

Ryan Blaney is another stay-away given his poor driver form overall. He has failed to finish top-10 in four consecutive attempts.

My Favorite Driver

I want to go against the seemingly obvious and instead invest in Joey Logano.

Logano has had bad luck with accidents in his last two tries at Daytona’s International Speedway. But bad luck can’t last forever.

While it has inflated his average finishing position here, when he actually finishes a race at Daytona, he becomes a superb candidate to win.

Measured by average finishing position, Logano is right behind Hamlin, who surely won’t win back-to-back, Harvick, whose success at Daytona stems primarily from earlier portions of his career, and Clint Bowyer, who’s showing poor driving form.

Besides those three drivers, nobody can compete with Logano in this statistical respect especially when you account for his number of wins plus top-five finishes (seven).

Moreover, Logano has shown consistently solid driving form overall with six straight top-nine finishes.

The Verdict

I want to take advantage of sportsbooks offering a top-three finish betting option because a buffer — meaning that my driver doesn’t have to win for my bet to cash — gives me a feeling of comfort.

Given his strong history at Daytona and his strong form overall, take advantage of the attractive betting odds available even for a top-three finish from Logano.

Best Bet: Joey Logano Top 3 Finish at +250 with BetOnline
 
This track also provides some unique winners that a lot of the other tracks don't have. You can get some real longshots home. Add that there are alot of guys that have to win to qualify for the playoffs and you could have a wild finish.

I jumped on DiBenedetto at +535 for a top 5. He's like +3200 to win.
 
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