Nadal vs Djokovic (Indian Wells ATP Final)

[claycourtlesson]

Wanted to take Nadal today, but that goddamn -255 on 5 Dimes is way too rough.

Has anyone seen a gameline on this match?

It's best of 3 this year now on ATP Masters Series Finals.....

A best of 5 today (like all ATP Masters Finals should be) would greatly favor Rafa, but best of 3 gets a lot dicier with that kind of chalk.

I know today's match will be played on a hard court, but I do remember well last year when these 2 played on the red clay in Paris......Nadal was so clearly superior it was a joke......Nadal controlled every single point.

 

[Satyr]

Yes but Djokovic is a very talented player himself, after all he reached the final, didn't he?

I will back him with 2 units due to value. :shake:

 

[claycourtlesson]

Satyr-

Oh yes, for sure, young Novak is the real deal. He's probably, even right now at only 19, a bona fide top 10 player....he's that good.

You're definitely getting value today by backing Djokovic, no question about it. Now does young Novak have what it takes to take down Rafa in a Master's Final??? That is the tough one.

Djokovic has this huge edge today.....he's a big dog, and no one expects him to win. All the expectation is on Rafael Nadal.

But, Nadal has earned this type of respect. Djokovic hasn't yet demonstrated the composure during the big points that Nadal has demonstrated over the past 3 seasons. And if Djokovic gets down a break early, I could see him mentally falling apart for a time.....at least enough to let the match get out of control. If Nadal gets down a break early on, he won't flinch.....he's that mentally tough.

 

[Satyr]

I very much agree, but all that is already reflected on the line. That's why Nadal is 1.41 fav and you have Djokovic at 3.20.

I'm gonna roll with Novak here. I put 2 units on him to win, and added 0.3 units on 3:2 exact result, 0.3 on over 39 games, 0.3 on 3:1 Djokovic and as a partial cover 0.4 on Nadal 3:1. Just in case.

I might lose all of this and wouldn't mind, I'm rolling with the value here, as I really feel we're getting one.


:shake: GL tonight.

 

[claycourtlesson]

Satyr-

What book are you using?

This year all ATP Masters Finals are best of 3.....new ATP rules to keep players from bailing out of tourneys.

If your book has a game total of 39, you ought to pound the crap out of the uNDER and hope it flies under the radar and gets lost in the shuffle today.

This one today is best of 3.

 

[Satyr]

wait, I'm reading something now, says the final is played best of 3 sets, not best of 5.

 

[Satyr]

Sorry didn't see your post. Pinny has it at 39.5, under is 1.79 but it says there (next to it):

Sun 3/18 Djokovic v Nadal. Total Games(Comp. Match. 5 Sets)
Maximum Wager: 536.54 EUR
12:05 PM 119 Over 39.5 Total Games 2.110 Risk To Win
120 Under 39.5 Total Games 1.794 Risk To Win


Meaning they will probably void the thing if I pound the under...

 

[Satyr]

my local book (www.lutrija.hr/kladionica, press ctrl + f and type "Nadal", it should lead you to the bet(s)), has the total at 40!

Also thinking it's a best of 5. I'm going to run over there and try to put 10/10 on the under, hopefully they didn't cancel it yet.

Let you know what happened.

 

[claycourtlesson]

Yeah, they will catch it and void it at Pinny.

I remember back in 2003 in Monte Carlo Final (Coria vs Ferrero). The match was supposed to be best of 5, but because of a bunch of rain that day, it got moved to best of 3. I found out and went full blast on the u37.5, and it got graded a win when JCF won 6-2 6-2. I caught lightning in a bottle that day.

Yeah, this today is best of 3, and it sucks. All ATP Masters Finals should be best of 5.

 

[claycourtlesson]

I hope you can put one over on your local, man. Pinny is too sharp to not catch that one.

5 Dimes can't figure out today whether it's best of 3 or best of 5, and that's why they can't get their goddamn props up.

 

[claycourtlesson]

Yeah, that 40 total won't last. Unbelievable.

 

[Satyr]

mate, a lot of confusion here. I put 10/10 on under 40 games (40 exactly is a loss, since there's a draw option), but I'm not sure really...various sources say different things...


This link:

http://www.atptennis.com/en/media/n...ndian Wells/ATP Indian Wells Sunday Final.pdf

says it's a best of 3 final, but guys at menstennisforums say (some of them, while others claim otherwise) that IW kept it's best of 5 for 2007.

One member from menstennisforums however, WROTE TO THE tournament organization and they told him it's best of 3. hm...

 

[claycourtlesson]

IT IS BEST OF 3!!!!!!!!!!!!!! End of story.

Since it's best of 3, Satyr, there's no way you can land on the 40 as far as the total.....no way. Highest you could possibly get is 7-6 6-7 7-6, or 39.

There are tiebreaks in ATP Masters Finals, so there is no way the deciding set could go on and on and on. It will end at 7-6, tops.

If your local grades your total, an uNDER40 is a winner so long as no one quits and match doesn't go to a finish.

The highest total you could possibly get is 39, so no worries.

Cheers

 

[claycourtlesson]

4 nil Novak serving in set one, down 2 breaks.

This, for now, is a thorough and comprehensive beat-down. Nadal is putting on a clinic that is "Federer-esque."

Well, after this beat-down, it will be once again totally evident that the 2 best players in the world, by a country mile, are Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal.

Another thing.....the futures for Nadal for R Garros, W-don, and US Open are about to lose a lot of value.

4-1 Nadal in set one, serving.

What Nadal is doing today is awe-inspiring.

 

[claycourtlesson]

Young Novak did a nice job of getting his game together and fighting the good fight.

In set 2, he really did make a good go of it.

6-2 7-5 Rafael Nadal.

 

[rod_steel]

This year all ATP Masters Finals are best of 3.....new ATP rules to keep players from bailing out of tourneys.

All Masters are best of 3 in 2007 except Miami "the 5th grand slam" which is best of 5

Personally I think the decision to go to a best of 3 is a fucking joke. Some of the most memorable tennis over the past couple of years have come from the best of 5 format in the Masters (2005 Miami, 2005 Rome & 2006 Rome). I don't know whose decision it was but I bet you that wanker Mr Disney had a say in it.

 

[Satyr]

claycourt, I knew my position with under 40 if it's a best of 3 match, don't worry I've been playing tennis since I was a 7 year old kid, won a few regional tournaments and watched tennis ever since the times of Connors, Courier, Sampras, Edberg, Becker, Muster, Ivanisevic (my countryman) Larsson (one of my fav players ever), so don't worry. .

I was worried if they turned up and played a best of 5 after all, since there were contradicting sources. I went on and played 10 units at the local book but so far they're not paying me out, I went there and they said I should come back a bit later, even though my bet says it's won (in their computer) the result "hasn't settled in yet" so they told me I come back later today or tomorrow.

I'll let you know what happened.

:shake:

 

[gpcyan3]

Hey whats up everyone, I've been on a month break from tennis lately, and I have to say Nadal did put on a show today. Novak didnt even drop a set getting to the final and Nadal just took his game to another level.

About the 3 set finals...
This is new news to me as well. I had no idea that they were changing the format, and frankly I don't like the change. What's not to enjoy about possibly 2 extra sets of tennis between the 2 best players at the tourney? Oh well, maybe they will try it out this year and realize the fans want and deserve the extra sets...

btw good to see you over here at CTG, CCL

- looking forward to a great tennis season and I'll be back in the swing of things withing the next week or so to add my input to the forum.

Cheers