My take on Melo's return

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Billivy

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I was saying to Killa last week that the total was going to be a little inflated upon Melo's return...I believe it has been, this years trend points over, the numbers however don't support it. This isn't a numbers play though...I was hoping for a game like this, a game where the total was expected to climb and climb and climb....b/c with the scorers there are on the court, i'm gonna need every bit of it. I figure Denver is in slight dissaray tonight offensivly. I expect players to be a little less decisive when setting the offense, passing off, and taking the shot. Nobody knows exactly how this offense is going to work yet with gametime pressure, and nobody wants to be the player that gets caught as the scapegoat for a poor offensive showing. I expect the mutual respect melo and iverson have for eachother to be enough of a distraction to the total to keep this in the 110s-120s range tonight. Added value for what just might be a romp by halftime. I'm taking a shot with this under

under 231.5 (550 to win 500)
 
i was suprised to see 10.5 as the line.. melos got to be a little rusty
 
any word if gasol will be playing? i heard he's been listed day-to-day. i'd definitely hit the under if he's out.
 
Ivy vs. BAR, THE REMATCH

LMAO

If this game was in Memphis, OVER this number would be one of my biggest plays of the year. I would play OVER as high as 238 in Memphis. The only thing keeping me off it in Denver is the blowout possibility. Denver should be good for a minimum of 120 tonight, but Memphis might play a dud. I don't recommend watching the game, as the shot clock will not hit 18 all night, lol.
 
It will be interesting to see how AI & Mello will work together.
GL-
:cheers:
 
Killa said:
Ivy vs. BAR, THE REMATCH

LMAO

If this game was in Memphis, OVER this number would be one of my biggest plays of the year. I would play OVER as high as 238 in Memphis. The only thing keeping me off it in Denver is the blowout possibility. Denver should be good for a minimum of 120 tonight, but Memphis might play a dud. I don't recommend watching the game, as the shot clock will not hit 18 all night, lol.

i think your correct on memphis's side of the court, however i'm hoping for a more tentative denver attack tonight
 
my guy doesnt open till 1030...

called it in at 233 (i don't think it ever hit 231.5...i meant to put 232.5)
 
I think with Melo and AI playing for the first time tonight, you wont see the flow that this game should have to get to 230 or so points. If this game was in a month or so, yeah, the over, but to think that if no one gets to 116 you are a winner, at Denver, you like the under.
 
Games like this make me want to buy the nba package. Im a big fan of guys like Rudy Yag and other young players would love to see 220+ ppg on tv more often..
 
I aint that far from Myrtle Beach was actually thinkin about goin there for some golf. What are the good bars in that area?

First road trip would be to Detroit to drop 30 on BAR
 
Have to agree with Killa 's logic here the scare part of either total play is the competiveness of the game. A blowout will make the over 233(or whatever number its currently at) extremely tough to get. So the flip is a blowout makes the under look very attractive. The 1st question anyone should be asking is how is the game going to be played out? If you think Memphis will cover it has to be somewhat more then a backdoor cover for an over. Instead of looking at 232, 233 ,234 think about it as 58 pts a quarter... check around Denver and Memphis games that isnt really unrealistic

I think the spread itself is inflated but Denver has started to play better of late. Memphis won in Denver when Melo was playing and Gasol still sidelined...so part of that 2 wins and none of that 18 losses occured in Denver. Some key players listed on Mem injury report Gasol , Swift( I think they need his rebounding) , Eddie Jones (few minutes but I like the option of having somewhere of his skill level available in say garbage time) .

After I have some answers on the injuries I think its easier to form an opinion. I assume Gasol is okay and will play , it would definetly hurt his trade value if he was seriously hurt. Jones battling the Flu might just be kept away and Swift has missed a few games now so I am not sure of his status but for me he is a huge plus.

Anyway I like the points(+11) but I am cautious. The Grizzlies have been awful in the past 2 away game SECOND QUARTERS OPP 73 Grizz 29. Now they stunk period in the Bulls game including the opening quarter and just seemed to get progressively worse. However they played well in Houston in the first away game...I just dont know where they fell apart or if it was simply a matter of inspired ball after the coaching change since they hated Fratello's style. They need to NOT have any Quarters like that.

Bottomline is w/o Melo the Nuggets have played well offensively the past tow basically getting 110 pts in each. Now you look at Mem away and they are allowing 111,112 in blowouts to teams below the offensive capability of Denver. So looking at that factored with the opening line of 10.5 / 232 I think the books expected score is 121 -111 which I think is fair if Mem is competitive.

With the total priced as expecting Denver to score 120 ish I think that is easily attainable here...if Grizz compete and suspect they will I would say 123-117 type game...if they dont more like 119 - 105 ... you have to think that Denver will score 115 pts no matterwhat looking to put show on for the crowd in melo's return and the 1st game he plays wwith AI...

Good Luck all...thats my extended ramble errr take on this game..
 
sportsnut, i believe that denver scores somewhere around 110 tonight...soo i have to like the under...

abcs, you should deff come to myrtle beach...you could easilly chill with us and we have two couches that fold into beds...buy us some groceries and we'll call it even...lol
 
well...looking at this game a few days ago I projected a t5otal in the high 230's..

there will be a few 40 point qtrs in this game..

BOL tho
 
All eyes are on the red-felt pool table that seven-time All-Star Allen Iverson and incumbent alpha dog Carmelo Anthony are about to get their stick on. Two weeks after the Nuggets sparked a raging debate by making a trade that teamed two of the league's top scorers, no one is closer to knowing if Denver has made its future or mortgaged it.

With Anthony in the midst of his 15-game suspension for his part in that Dec. 16 scrap at the Garden, and with him not set to hit the floor again until Jan. 22 against the Grizzlies, George Karl has chosen to focus his practices on combinations that can eke out wins until then. At this point, he hasn't run his two stars in the same five for even a minute. And that makes this innocent get-to-know-you, best-of-three match of major interest to the witnesses -- Rex Chapman, VP of player personnel, and two other team execs, Mark Warkentien and Bret Bearup -- all of whom took turns convincing owner Stan Kroenke that paying whatever luxury-tax considerations they might face over the next three seasons on the $57 million left on Iverson's contract would be worthwhile. For now, this is as close as anyone is going to get to seeing exactly how AI and Melo mesh in the heat of competition.
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ESPN The Magazine
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"I'm the greatest pool player who ever played!" Iverson immediately boasts. "I'll knock the 8 ball in on your ass on the break." He turns to his new 'mate. "Or do you want to break?"

Anthony demurs. "You can break. I want to see your technique."

Iverson sledgehammers the racked balls and drops a solid in the far corner. "You see it?" he asks, then drops another in the side. "That's your ass, Mr. Postman."

The short-term hope was that Iverson, who has four 30-point seasons in the books, would minimize the damage of losing Anthony's 31.6 ppg in the merciless West. But last season's Northwest Division champs are 3-8 since the Sixers superstar's arrival and have slipped into the final playoff spot. "It feels like I'm still in Philly," Iverson says. "I don't want to sit back and wait for Melo to get back, but teams are saying, 'We're not going to let you beat us.' That's the toughest part right now."

Anthony has used his forced viewing from home to get a better handle on where AI likes to spot up, but the team's struggles are hard to bear. "I feel his pain," Melo says. "My TV has been nearly broke four times now."

Both of them will say, though, that their worst frustration stems from having something they've dreamed about for so long be so tantalizingly near, yet still out of reach.

Two years ago, at the 2005 All-Star Game in Denver, Anthony was upset because he wasn't chosen to represent in front of his hometown fans. Iverson's mom, Ann, privately tried to cheer him up by saying she'd love to see him on the same team with her son. Then her son went out and showed how it could work. In the game, he scored only 15 points but collected 10 dimes as a setup man and took home the MVP trophy. Anthony, meanwhile, scored 31 as the MVP of the rookie-soph game.

They thought they might get Mama Iverson's wish last February, when then-Nuggets GM Kiki Vandeweghe quietly made a deadline pitch for AI; the Sixers mulled it seriously before saying no. But in December, when Iverson complained about the new offense with swingman Andre Iguodala at the point, GM Billy King told him to stay home and finally made his star available to the highest bidder. "Melo called me when the rumors started last year," Iverson says. "He said he wanted it to happen. Then we talked when they started up again. Of all the situations that were brought up, this is the place I most wanted to be."
nba_pool_275.jpg

Michael Muller
Hoops or pool, AI can teach Melo a few tricks.




Moments before he gets busy on the pool table, that enthusiasm is not necessarily apparent. Iverson talks wistfully about living in a loft across from the arena until he can find more-permanent digs. And a sprained big toe has him hobbling around the players' lounge in search of his sidekick. "Where's Melo? Get Melo," he says. "I'm waiting on this young fella. Damn."

As soon as Melo appears, Iverson perks up and the limp vanishes. He briskly approaches the rack of cues, picks one out and rolls it on the table to make sure it's true.

Finally, he misses, leaving the cue ball wedged against two striped balls near the rail. "Where I'm from you can play spacing," Melo says and moves the cue ball just enough to get off a shot. Hoots from everyone embarrass him into putting the ball back where it was. He tries a hopeless scatter shot.

"That's that Baltimore s---," says Iverson, who follows with a table-length beauty that cuts the two ball in the right corner. "I've got a machete over here!" he shouts after the ball falls.

When Melo is next up, he inadvertently bumps one ball as he lines up another. Iverson cracks, "How many balls you going to hit?"

Once again, Melo finds himself without a shot. He calls "all around the world," and Chapman can't hold his tongue. "We call that slop, where I'm from," he says. And Iverson piles on: "You got no shot. Deal with it."

A despairing Anthony says, "We need a foosball table."

Anthony eventually makes a brief run, calling each ball by the player who wears the number on his uniform. "Carmelo Anthony, down there ... Earl Boykins in the corner. Walk like a dog!"

But the 11 caroms off the rail instead of rolling along it, and that leaves Iverson with a very makeable cut shot on the eight. "I'm going to do it the hard way," he says, calling a long bank to the corner behind him. It's a decent effort, the ball stopping about six inches short. But Melo can't take advantage, and next time Iverson takes the easy duck.

"This game brought to you by ..." he says as he sinks the ball. "You want to run it back or make excuses?"
nba_laugh_195.jpg

Michael Muller
The Nuggets expect the Melo-AI combo to be no joke.




As Anthony pulls out the rack and collects the balls, Iverson sings, "I knnoowww you loove me ..."
Iverson's history with the 76ers would suggest the Nuggets have made a colossal mistake. He made his lone Finals appearance in 2001, an MVP season during which he averaged 31.1 points on a team whose next top scorer, center Theo Ratliff, got 12.4. Before and after, whether it was as a rookie paired with Jerry Stackhouse or as a nine-year vet paired with Chris Webber, Iverson failed to make the playoffs as part of a two-pronged attack.

Then again, although AI and Webber were the league's highest-scoring combo in their one full season together -- combining for 53.2 points a night -- no one would confuse Webber at the tail end of his career with an up-and-coming Anthony. And Iverson says that if playing the point puts him at the wheel, he'll still be quick to ask his co-pilot for directions. "There are no excuses," he says. "This team is better than the one I went to the Finals with. I want to see what the floor looks like with both of us on it. People can't do to him what they've been doing. If he was averaging 31 points before, he should get 34-35 with me."

Anthony is confident that Iverson understands his mission is to complement, not conquer. He may not have AI's room-grabbing bravado, but his place as the franchise cornerstone is secure. "He's been in the league 10 years -- he ain't going to play another 10," Anthony says. "He's here for no other reason than he wants to win."

The two Nuggets already have in their heads what they'll do down by one with seven seconds left. "One-three pick-and-roll," Anthony says. "Pick your poison."

Iverson agrees. "If two men step out on me and I throw it to him, he goes to work," he says. "But if they respect him like I know they will, then I turn the corner. They may not want to admit it, but players know in the back of their minds what they're going to be dealing with. And no one wants to play the two of us in a seven-game series, I can tell you that."

They've known each other since long before Ann Iverson got them thinking about joining forces, having grown up not all that far apart: AI in Virginia Beach, Melo in Baltimore. After Anthony's rookie season three summers ago, they began to run into each other at DC hotspots. And they hung in Athens as members of the '04 Olympic team.

But seeing them bare-chested and side-by-side is when it hits you. They're practically twins. Okay, so one is 6'8", 230, and the other six feet, 165. Both are copiously tatted; both prefer their hair in braids; both have a sliver of a mustache and a scraggle of chin hair. Even their café au lait skin is the same hue. On this day, they're also wearing look-alike gear: baggy gray cotton sweats and all-white leather low-cuts (Reebok for AI, Jordan brand for Melo).
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Michael Muller
Carmelo's back ... and ready.




"That motherf---er ain't that handsome," Iverson cracks when the likeness is pointed out. Melo laughs.

They're similarly combustible, too, particularly when they feel wronged. That could mean an animated conversation or two in the heat of battle. "Imagine if we got into a fight on the court," Iverson says. "That would be the biggest news." He doesn't scoff at the possibility of its happening, but he's sure it would be misread as proof that they choose personal interests over winning. "People are concerned about which one of us is going to be selfish and jealous," Iverson says, and Anthony nods in agreement.

"If I was Kobe," AI continues, "I'd have begged Shaq to come back, and if I was Shaq, I would've begged Kobe to come back. Ego ain't going to get you nothin' except an early exit."

<CENTER>* * * * * </CENTER>

The second game ends quickly. Iverson tries to juke the rules when he buries a 10-14 combo in one corner pocket only to see the cue ball ricochet and follow the 8 into the other corner. He wants to play it as if he has scratched -- "Melo don't want to win like that!" -- but Anthony is, in fact, more than happy to accept the gift. It gives him the break to begin the rubber match. But after two miscues, Iverson stops him from making a third attempt.

"I know," Melo says, stepping aside in resignation.

"I know you know," says Iverson. As he prepares to break, he teases Melo with a twist on a line from Anthony's TV commercial: "Why do I have to take the shot when I know I already made it?"
Melo watches glumly as Iverson nearly runs the table. "I'm a cardplayer," he says.

"See you later," says Iverson, as he lines up the 8 and drops it.

Melo racks his cue, but Iverson isn't done. Injured forward Kenyon Martin walks in and asks, "What are you doing?"

Just being Iverson. He never stops coming, never defers, never relents. He hasn't for more than 10 seasons, so anyone expecting different now is dreaming. As he would say: You've got no shot. Deal with it.

Iverson answers Martin without looking up, cue poised to strike. "I'm knocking Melo's balls in now."
Ric Bucher is a senior writer for ESPN The Magazine
 
billivy said:
sportsnut, i believe that denver scores somewhere around 110 tonight...soo i have to like the under...

abcs, you should deff come to myrtle beach...you could easilly chill with us and we have two couches that fold into beds...buy us some groceries and we'll call it even...lol

If you think Denver scores 110 tonight, then you should make this the biggest bet of your life. I have no idea how Memphis will hold Denver to 110, but maybe you know something I don't.
 
yo yo yo

so whats the play here guys? already have a bunch out just looking for more! is under 235 good? @ 233 right now thinking about buying up.
got uconn+5bought up, Okalhoma+8.5 bought up, spurs -7.5 I want that 1 more play and I have not played the Nugs in a while. Thinking under also @ 235. need more info.

holla @ your boy

The Notorious DOG
 
if you have to buy a point to like a total...there is no value...

you will go broke doing so...

i like the under for what it's worth
 
Killa said:
If you think Denver scores 110 tonight, then you should make this the biggest bet of your life. I have no idea how Memphis will hold Denver to 110, but maybe you know something I don't.

i agree here with Killa, no way MEM will hold DEN on 110 .. O/U depends only on MEM scoring
 
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