My SEC PR's
- Thread starter JML4481
- Start date
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
They were missing a lot of guys in that bowl game and dealing with some burnout over what could have been I think . though that is just a guess. I have Ole Miss WAY higher than you do though. Not sure how Mississippi state could be a neutral field favorite over ole miss given that one team brings back most important pieces and the other team brings back a great qb and nothing else.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Just cause someone else disagrees with your number doesn't necessarily mean yours is wrong though. Not sure how experienced you are with making your own PR but if you are and have success, don't be scared to trust yourself. But I suppose focus on the teams where you differ a lot from market/others the first two weeks to get a better idea if you are more off or they are.... because where you differ the most is where you are most likely to find your big advantages and disadvantages when investing time comes. So best to keep mindful of where you differ and monitor that variance between you and market.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
And since we are talking PR .. I will give you/me/anyone the best guide to knowing whether your numbers are working for you or not.
Make your lines.
Make a note of where the lines open.
Make a note of where the lines close.
If the lines tend to move toward your numbers, you are on the right track.
If the lines tend to move away from your numbers, you may need to check your process.
Make your lines.
Make a note of where the lines open.
Make a note of where the lines close.
If the lines tend to move toward your numbers, you are on the right track.
If the lines tend to move away from your numbers, you may need to check your process.
JML4481
Pretty much a regular
As I believe Schrute mentioned in another thread,I follow a process of following my PR's very closely early on,but scale away from them slightly as conference play begins. I then re-do a set pre-bowl season factoring in other variables(s.o.s,location,suspensions,etc.) for the best time of year.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Got ya. Tear that bookie a new one.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Ole Miss wasn't the same after the Treadwell injury. They lost their best player, lost the game, and lost the West. All in one freak accident.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I wouldn't take Vandy at +40
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
You're probably closer than I am in mine
cubsker
Used to be "Fun Cub"
cfb-lines.herokuapp.com It is different than the site from last year, so you do have to sign up new. If you enter PRs and HFAs, you'll get the PR spread and PR season win totals. If you enter your own lines, you can get season win totals for those as well. There's a spot to enter totals too. I'm going to write some code to scrape rotation numbers over the weekend, so that will be up for Week 1 and then will update the other weeks as we get them.
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cubsker
Used to be "Fun Cub"
fair enough. even on the road, vandy was like 30.5 against piss st last year iirc. I would expect vandy to be a little better...meh, maybe 40 is right.
Grovehard
Pretty much a regular
Did you watch the Ole Miss vs. Tennessee game last year? Both teams return virtually everyone. One notable difference is the QB position for both teams, but I'm not sure that accounts for 30 points.
Using an isolated H2H matchup to calculate PRs is a dangerous line to walk. Unless you think TCU would be -21 on a neutral to Ole Miss and -50 against TN this year
I get your point and I doubt you were being 100% serious but my PR line is Ole Miss -2.75
Grovehard
Pretty much a regular
Yeah, I was being tongue in cheek. I wouldn't make the line anywhere close to Ole Miss -30 (I have Ole Miss -4). That was my attempt at humor in response to what I believe to be an equally as humorous ranking of 12th in the SEC for the Rebs. I just don't know what else to do with that. Ole Miss -2 on a neutral against UK? What?
JML4481
Pretty much a regular
Admitted that was a brutal error and an egregious oversight as to what the heck I was thinking....could've been dyslexia? 87 would've been a better number than 78. However, even with a corrected PR and a number closer to what it should be (Purpose of posting my numbers-to get a novice like me more experience), I still can't fully buy into Ole Miss for some reason,not sure why, just can't.
Good Luck this season Grove.
JML4481
Pretty much a regular
Link didn't work, but I'd like to use something like this. Pen and paper is a bit more time consuming.
cubsker
Used to be "Fun Cub"
Grovehard
Pretty much a regular
No worries man. It's part of the process. I've posted some 10 unit no doubters on here only to look like an asshole by halftime. Unfortunately, there will probably be more of those this season. I'm cautiously optimistic on Ole Miss, but there are legitimate reasons to be skeptical. Good luck, man.
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JML4481
Pretty much a regular
Thanks Twinkie. I'm very high on your Bayou Bengals,just hope the schedule doesn't do them in,and their qb is adequate.
I start each conference with a conference leader and rate them 100. I then guesstimate a spread throughout the conference vs the top team. I then take the top team in each conference and figure the spreads on a neutral...then use that to scale the remaining teams. Cub amd clown are right when they say you must keep adjusting,and I would say,getting away from them for a few days just to stay fresh. As you can see,mistakes can and will be made,which is why I dont mind sharing mine. I'm a $100-$300 bettor typically,with a wife and two kids,so I'm not going to be moving lines,and that's fine by me,but that's why I like sharing my PR's.
JML4481
Pretty much a regular
I'm interested to see how your "tier splits" of the AAC Conference are.
I have Cincinnati,Memphis,Temple,UCF, and Houston only 5 points apart, which seems a little low Cincy to Houston.......but then I look at the bottom of that conference, and I have a Navy,(Tulane,USF,Tulsa,UConn,) SMU spread a 12 point difference, which seems a bit wide.
Your thoughts?
