bjorks
Secretary of Fondy Fanclub
Well, I spent an hour typing an email to cappers Thursday and instead of hitting send I hit cancel. Not happy about it and don't feel like redoing all of it so here is the highly condenced version...
This game IMO looks like a college football game where one teams strength plays right into the hands of the other teams weakness. The Bears weakness is their secondary, lead by Peyton and Eli's illigitimate brothers Ricky Jr and Daniel. Add to that the loss of Tommie Harris and there is more and more pressure on the secondary.
If you look at Bear scores back to the Jets game, they've gotten shredded by both good and bad QB's. Bulger, Gradkowski, Kitna, Hasselbeck, Brees, etc. I really think the Bears defense peaked against Arizona. Even against the Cards, though Leinert was able to pass for 230+ with 2 TD's and they had Tommie Harris.
IMO the only reason the Bears made it to the big game was because they had home field advantage. New Soldier Field is a HARD place to play in the winter. The last time this team played an outdoor game with the temperature above 60 degrees was their loss TO THE DOLPHINS IN MIAMI. If I remember correctly the game is in Miami this year and it will be over 80 degrees.
Basically looking at the defensive stats of the Bears back to the Jets game I feel this defense is a FRAUD. Yes, they are 15-2 or whatever they are, but this team has given up points and yards in big chunks. They took advantage of an outstanding defense the first 8 weeks of the year and road the wave of their home games and a very weak NFC North and now they're supposed to stop one of the top 3 offenses in the league?
If you were picking teams and you had to pick one of the following QB's to go to battle with against the Colts, who would you pick?
Trent Green
Steve McNair
Tom Brady
Rex Grossman
Green and LJ couldn't do it, McNair and a defense with a better secondary couldn't do it at HOME, Tom Brady, couldn't do it...I wouldn't exactly feel good about Rex Grossman doing it on a neutral field.
Manning and the Colts have finally gotten over the hurdle that is the New England Patriots. The Mouse is off their backs, BUT there is NO WAY they are overlooking this game. They know how hard it is just to get here and you're going to battle with 2 HOF'ers on offense, one of which puts more film time in than anyone in the league and he's also your QB. I don't care about Manning's playoff record or championship record. Don't think for a minute Manning and Dungy haven't gone over every look of the Cover-2 that Dungy taught Lovie Smith.
The Colts game plan is no secret as they are going to force the Rex to beat them through the air. What Rex do we get is the question? Rex either plays extremely well or exremely poor. Most likely he'll play somewhere in the middle, but it will take a career performance for the Bears to have a chance. The Bears have to score at least 24 points IMO to have a shot, which I don't think they do. This will be Grossman's 25th career game, basically the midway point through his 2nd year if he started from Day 1. The Colts put 8 in the box and dare him to throw. I really think the defense or Hester will have to score at least once for them to have a chance. Every cylinder for the Bears must click.
It's 80 degrees out and you haven't played outside in weather above 60 in 2 and a half months, you have zero pass rush, you best defensive player will be lined up on a fast TE 70% of the game, you play the same defensive scheme the opposing coach taught your coach, they have 1 maybe to HOF WR's who THRIVE on zone coverage, your weakness is your secondary and are facing one of the most prolific passers in NFL history, AND they have the best no huddle offense since Jim Kelly and the Bills. Not looking good for the Bears.
The Bears must stop Manning to win the game. Meaning with Urlacher on Dallas Clark, they will have 6 in the box to contain Joseph Addai and Dom Rhodes for most of the game. If you play the run, they audible to the pass...if you play the pass they audible to the run. If you try to rotate DL they go no huddle on your ass so you can't substitute. I fully expect the Bears D to be worn out by the midway point of the second quarter. Add to that the Bears, lack of a pass rush and no blitzing against the least sacked QB in the NFL over the past 4 years...Manning should have all day to pick apart the defense.
Colts 38
Bears 13
There's just too many things not in favor of the Bears...
Dungy vs. Smith - Mentor vs. protege - EDGE COLTS
Colts OL vs. Bears DL - EDGE COLTS, without Harris Bears are very average up front. Adwale will be neutralized and a non factor.
Colts RB vs. Bears LB - EDGE BEARS, if Urlacher can stay in the box they Bears have a definate advantage, however if he's out in coverage, the edge goes to the Colts. Hillenmeyer and Briggs combined for 1 sack on the year.
Colts WR vs. Bears DB - EDGE COLTS, 1 HOF'er, 1 maybe. This is the biggest mismatch of the game. It multiplies if Manning has all day to throw against Vasher, D. Manning, Johnson, and Tillman.
Bears OL vs. Colts DL - EDGE BEARS, I actually like the Bears line, especially Kreutz who's probably one of the best C's in the league. With the exception of Freeney, the Colts line isn't exactly the Purple People Easters or the Steel Curtain.
Bears RB vs. Colts LB - Brackett, June and Morris aren't steller, but they do the job. Compared to the Bears LB's, they're not in the same league, but they are the classic 'system' LB's. EDGE PUSH
Bears WR vs. Colts DB - EDGE COLTS, Nothing fancy here either, but do like Harper and Sander's chances against Grossman.
Special Teams Kicking - Adam Viniteiri, enough said...EDGE COLTS
Special Teams Returning - Devin Hester, enough said...EDGE BEARS
Misc. - The one thing I'm worried about is the relationship between Dungy and Smith. Good friends, mentor/mentee, etc. Do you think Dungy really wants to poor it on? EDGE Bears
If you believe the NFL is rigged at all - EDGE COLTS. I really believe the NFL powers that be and NFL gods want Manning and Dungy to win this. Dungy for what he went through last year and Manning so he can make one more comercial.
:moose:
Props I like...
Manning OVER 262 passing yards
Manning OVER 22.5 completions
Wayne OVER 75.5 receiving yards
Wayne OVER 5 receptions
Wayne longest reception OVER 22.5 yards
Will R. Wayne score a TD? YES
Desmond Clark OVER 50.5 receiving yards
Longest reception for the Bears? B. Berrian +185
Longest reception for the Colts? R. Wayne +225
Who will score the Colts 1st TD? R. Wayne +400
Who will score 1st TD in game? R. Wayne +800
Who will score 1st? Colts -140
1st team to punt? Bears +105
Who will get first 1st down? Colts -130
Total Colts points OVER 28 -120
Length of Billy Joel's national anthem OVER 1 min, 42 seconds. Check out his Youtube clip of sining the anthem at a baseball game that A) seems rushed, B) goes 1:39, Yes, I actually looked for this on the internet.
Best of luck to everyone...input always welcome.
This game IMO looks like a college football game where one teams strength plays right into the hands of the other teams weakness. The Bears weakness is their secondary, lead by Peyton and Eli's illigitimate brothers Ricky Jr and Daniel. Add to that the loss of Tommie Harris and there is more and more pressure on the secondary.
If you look at Bear scores back to the Jets game, they've gotten shredded by both good and bad QB's. Bulger, Gradkowski, Kitna, Hasselbeck, Brees, etc. I really think the Bears defense peaked against Arizona. Even against the Cards, though Leinert was able to pass for 230+ with 2 TD's and they had Tommie Harris.
IMO the only reason the Bears made it to the big game was because they had home field advantage. New Soldier Field is a HARD place to play in the winter. The last time this team played an outdoor game with the temperature above 60 degrees was their loss TO THE DOLPHINS IN MIAMI. If I remember correctly the game is in Miami this year and it will be over 80 degrees.
Basically looking at the defensive stats of the Bears back to the Jets game I feel this defense is a FRAUD. Yes, they are 15-2 or whatever they are, but this team has given up points and yards in big chunks. They took advantage of an outstanding defense the first 8 weeks of the year and road the wave of their home games and a very weak NFC North and now they're supposed to stop one of the top 3 offenses in the league?
If you were picking teams and you had to pick one of the following QB's to go to battle with against the Colts, who would you pick?
Trent Green
Steve McNair
Tom Brady
Rex Grossman
Green and LJ couldn't do it, McNair and a defense with a better secondary couldn't do it at HOME, Tom Brady, couldn't do it...I wouldn't exactly feel good about Rex Grossman doing it on a neutral field.
Manning and the Colts have finally gotten over the hurdle that is the New England Patriots. The Mouse is off their backs, BUT there is NO WAY they are overlooking this game. They know how hard it is just to get here and you're going to battle with 2 HOF'ers on offense, one of which puts more film time in than anyone in the league and he's also your QB. I don't care about Manning's playoff record or championship record. Don't think for a minute Manning and Dungy haven't gone over every look of the Cover-2 that Dungy taught Lovie Smith.
The Colts game plan is no secret as they are going to force the Rex to beat them through the air. What Rex do we get is the question? Rex either plays extremely well or exremely poor. Most likely he'll play somewhere in the middle, but it will take a career performance for the Bears to have a chance. The Bears have to score at least 24 points IMO to have a shot, which I don't think they do. This will be Grossman's 25th career game, basically the midway point through his 2nd year if he started from Day 1. The Colts put 8 in the box and dare him to throw. I really think the defense or Hester will have to score at least once for them to have a chance. Every cylinder for the Bears must click.
It's 80 degrees out and you haven't played outside in weather above 60 in 2 and a half months, you have zero pass rush, you best defensive player will be lined up on a fast TE 70% of the game, you play the same defensive scheme the opposing coach taught your coach, they have 1 maybe to HOF WR's who THRIVE on zone coverage, your weakness is your secondary and are facing one of the most prolific passers in NFL history, AND they have the best no huddle offense since Jim Kelly and the Bills. Not looking good for the Bears.
The Bears must stop Manning to win the game. Meaning with Urlacher on Dallas Clark, they will have 6 in the box to contain Joseph Addai and Dom Rhodes for most of the game. If you play the run, they audible to the pass...if you play the pass they audible to the run. If you try to rotate DL they go no huddle on your ass so you can't substitute. I fully expect the Bears D to be worn out by the midway point of the second quarter. Add to that the Bears, lack of a pass rush and no blitzing against the least sacked QB in the NFL over the past 4 years...Manning should have all day to pick apart the defense.
Colts 38
Bears 13
There's just too many things not in favor of the Bears...
Dungy vs. Smith - Mentor vs. protege - EDGE COLTS
Colts OL vs. Bears DL - EDGE COLTS, without Harris Bears are very average up front. Adwale will be neutralized and a non factor.
Colts RB vs. Bears LB - EDGE BEARS, if Urlacher can stay in the box they Bears have a definate advantage, however if he's out in coverage, the edge goes to the Colts. Hillenmeyer and Briggs combined for 1 sack on the year.
Colts WR vs. Bears DB - EDGE COLTS, 1 HOF'er, 1 maybe. This is the biggest mismatch of the game. It multiplies if Manning has all day to throw against Vasher, D. Manning, Johnson, and Tillman.
Bears OL vs. Colts DL - EDGE BEARS, I actually like the Bears line, especially Kreutz who's probably one of the best C's in the league. With the exception of Freeney, the Colts line isn't exactly the Purple People Easters or the Steel Curtain.
Bears RB vs. Colts LB - Brackett, June and Morris aren't steller, but they do the job. Compared to the Bears LB's, they're not in the same league, but they are the classic 'system' LB's. EDGE PUSH
Bears WR vs. Colts DB - EDGE COLTS, Nothing fancy here either, but do like Harper and Sander's chances against Grossman.
Special Teams Kicking - Adam Viniteiri, enough said...EDGE COLTS
Special Teams Returning - Devin Hester, enough said...EDGE BEARS
Misc. - The one thing I'm worried about is the relationship between Dungy and Smith. Good friends, mentor/mentee, etc. Do you think Dungy really wants to poor it on? EDGE Bears
If you believe the NFL is rigged at all - EDGE COLTS. I really believe the NFL powers that be and NFL gods want Manning and Dungy to win this. Dungy for what he went through last year and Manning so he can make one more comercial.
:moose:
Props I like...
Manning OVER 262 passing yards
Manning OVER 22.5 completions
Wayne OVER 75.5 receiving yards
Wayne OVER 5 receptions
Wayne longest reception OVER 22.5 yards
Will R. Wayne score a TD? YES
Desmond Clark OVER 50.5 receiving yards
Longest reception for the Bears? B. Berrian +185
Longest reception for the Colts? R. Wayne +225
Who will score the Colts 1st TD? R. Wayne +400
Who will score 1st TD in game? R. Wayne +800
Who will score 1st? Colts -140
1st team to punt? Bears +105
Who will get first 1st down? Colts -130
Total Colts points OVER 28 -120
Length of Billy Joel's national anthem OVER 1 min, 42 seconds. Check out his Youtube clip of sining the anthem at a baseball game that A) seems rushed, B) goes 1:39, Yes, I actually looked for this on the internet.
Best of luck to everyone...input always welcome.
