My play tonight. Feedback appreciated

[VirginiaCavs]

[FONT=&quot]Pirates/Diamondbacks First 5 under 4.5[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Pirates really struggling to hit on the road. Averaging just two runs per game in their past five away from Pittsburgh. Even though they hit finesse relatively well. Greinke's biggest threat, Mccutcheon, has just two hits in his last nineteen at-bats. His BA drops from .250 at home to .192 on the road. And it's not because he's been hitting in batter unfriendly ballparks as last year he was just 2/14 in Chase Field (both singles). The Pirates have shelled a couple of pitchers (Conley and Feldman) who have had total meltdowns but I really like how Greinke is pitching because his K/9 rate is way up, and his BB/9 rate is way down, from last year. 3.09 ERA and 3.21 fip so far. [/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]But I like Gerrit Cole a lot too. I know it's scary to bet on an 'under' in Chase Field, but Arizona's initially insane production at home has been regressing to last year's norm (.794 ops last year; still .865 this year). Cole has likewise improved a lot from last year (in terms of K/ 9 and BB/9 rate) and I think that continues against a Diamondbacks' squad whose ops is just .643 against power pitchers. They have scored just six runs in their past three home games against power pitchers, one of whom (German Marquez) was also a ground ball pitcher, indicating that they struggle more against power than they succeed against ground ball pitching. They faced another power ground ball pitcher very recently, Chatwood, and lost that one 5-2 in hitter-friendly Coors. [/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]So I really like Cole and Greinke. Greinke has slightly more upside (measured by fip - era and current babip - career babip) but not enough to statistically matter all that much. Considering also the form both lineups are in, but most especially the match-up, I think under 4.5 after five is the likeliest play. We also get to avoid reliance on the bullpens.[/FONT]

Thoughts?opcorn:

 

[BringInTheLefty]

Pittsburgh has lost six of eight but has found success on recent visits in Arizona. The Pirates are 9-4 in the desert since 2013 and have won five of their past six in Chase Field.
Greinke is 3-2 with a 3.09 ERA in seven starts this season. He has given up more than two earned runs in a game twice and more than three only once while posting five quality starts, second in the NL. He has made four straight quality starts, giving up seven earned runs in 27 innings for a 2.33 ERA. He has 33 strikeouts and three walks in his past four starts.
He is 6-3 with a 5.04 ERA in 10 starts against the Pirates but has faced them only twice in the last three years. Greinke is 13-7 with a 3.94 ERA at Chase Field, and after getting off to a slow start in his first season in Arizona last year, he is 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA in four home starts this season.
Cole is 1-3 with a 3.14 ERA in seven starts, a deceptive record inasmuch as he has made six straight quality starts since giving up five runs in the season opener at Boston. He is 0-2 with two no-decisions in his last four starts despite a 1.73 ERA in 26 innings. He has given up 15 hits and five walks while striking out 31 in that stretch.
The 26-year-old has received one or fewer runs of support in four of his starts. He gave up one run in seven innings in a no-decision in his last start against Milwaukee on Saturday, a game the Pirates won in 10 innings.

 

[B.A.R.]

Good info gents

 

[GWarner27]

solid aces in a tough venue so things could blow up, but I'd guess it's ARI if anyone that will screw you here

 

[lungster]

looks good, agree and will be on it as well. Any more of those Rainman stats/trends?

 

[Fondybadger]

Best of luck tonight

 

[nbafan88]

Just cannot advocate an under in Zona with the roof open. The over 20-9 since 2012 with the roof open and temps between 85-90 degrees

this coupled with most of the action being on the under, not a big deal in bases though