My play tonight (Cardinals/Rockies game). Feedback appreciated

[VirginiaCavs]

The play: Cardinals/Rockies First 5 Under 5.5

Martinez gets an extra day of rest and this makes him extra dangerous: with four days' rest his ERA is 3.65 in 37 starts; with five days' rest his ERA drops to 2.66 in 26 days' rest.

He is a power ground ball pitcher, making him a good match-up against a Rockies lineup whose ops is just .702 against power pitchers compared to .802 against finesse pitchers and .721 against ground ball pitchers compared to .769 against fly ball pitchers.

Senzaleta also a power ground ball pitcher, also a good match-up for the Cards. Cards' ops is .652 vs power pitchers, compared to .779 vs finesse pitchers and .741 vs ground ball pitchers compared to .759 vs fly ball pitchers.

Senzatela has run into some very hot lineups, but the Cards are in a slump: .615 ops last seven days. Martinez is coming off his best start of the season and he pitched well in Coors last season.

 

[Play2win]

I've been high on Senzatela this season
C Martinez 2-1 6 home starts 2.40 era this season and 1-2 in 3 road starts 5.51 era, 3 games/2 starts at Coors 5.54 era
Col returns home after 7-3 road run L10 and due for home progression
Unders seem risky here but wish you the best of luck

 

[tuck321]

I see 3.97 on 5
[TABLE="class: row_summable sortable stats_table now_sortable"]
<thead>[TR]
[TH="class: poptip sort_default_asc left"][/TH]
[TH="class: poptip center"]W[/TH]
[TH="class: poptip center"]L[/TH]
[TH="class: poptip hide_non_quals center"]W-L%[/TH]
[TH="class: poptip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals center"]ERA[/TH]
[TH="class: poptip center"]G[/TH]
[TH="class: poptip center"]GS[/TH]
[TH="class: poptip center"]GF[/TH]
[TH="class: poptip center"]CG[/TH]
[TH="class: poptip center"]SHO[/TH]
[TH="class: poptip center"]SV[/TH]
[TH="class: poptip center"]IP[/TH]
[TH="class: poptip center"]H[/TH]
[TH="class: poptip center"]R[/TH]
[TH="class: poptip center"]ER[/TH]
[TH="class: poptip center"]HR[/TH]
[TH="class: poptip center"]BB[/TH]
[TH="class: poptip center"]IBB[/TH]
[TH="class: poptip center"]SO[/TH]
[TH="class: poptip center"]HBP[/TH]
[TH="class: poptip center"]BK[/TH]
[TH="class: poptip center"]WP[/TH]
[TH="class: poptip center"]BF[/TH]
[TH="class: poptip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals center"]WHIP[/TH]
[TH="class: poptip hide_non_quals center"]SO9[/TH]
[TH="class: poptip hide_non_quals center"]SO/W[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead> <tbody>[TR]
[TH="class: left"]4 Days,GS[/TH]
[TD="class: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: right"].667[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]3.79[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]19.0[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]16[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]18[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]81[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]1.211[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]8.5[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]2.57[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="class: left"]5 Days,GS[/TH]
[TD="class: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: right"].500[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]3.97[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]11.1[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]18[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]53[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]1.676[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]14.3[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]1.80[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="class: left"]6+ Days,GS[/TH]
[TD="class: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: right"].000[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]2.63[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]27.1[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]19[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]26[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]106[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]0.878[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]8.6[/TD]
[TD="class: right"]5.20[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Personally not a big fan of road splits because that doesn't account for park factors (whether he pitched in more hitters or pitchers parks). I think he proved last season that he is capable of pitching well at Coors. Tuck: I was looking at career numbers. 2017 provides too small of a sample size.

 

[Play2win]

Col bats .370 plus in only 43 ab's vs Martinez who is off complete gm and at coors...not trusting him tonight...GL

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Due for home regression? Rockies are the most overachieving team in baseball as they are last in xwoba-woba

 

[Play2win]

Col rd hm rec insane, they will go on a run in home gm....splits will even out at hm, look at Arenado for example

 

[Play2win]

Cargo starting to heat up

 

[Play2win]

Offensive stats obv, and w/L record

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Not against Carlos. The bulk of those career stats against him were achieved longer than a year ago, as last year he pitched very well at Coors, giving up just five hits and two ER in five innings. That's why I don't put too much stock in dailybaseballdata. (I hope I don't come off as a jerk for continuing discussion after I won my bet)

 

[Play2win]

U never jerk...discussion is great...keep up great work

 

[2daBank]

I like this play for Saturday. Cards pen scares me a little for full gm even tho i played! But waino good in his career at coors and like his form of late. cards struggle vs lefties so freeland outta be fine. My hopes for full game is basically need waino to give 7 inn then hand off to rosenthal and not the other junk we have back in pen. Ugh..

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Waino's most recent performance in Coors was a disaster, FIP over 10. I tend to think it's something like that that we see today, as the Rockies match up very well vs finesse pitching. And yeah there is so much junk in the Cards' pen, if he doesn't last at least seven, then it definitely looks bad.

 

[2daBank]

Waino was excellent as advertised. Rosenthal wanted to get cute but there wasn't much chance of seeing 11 by then. Dunno why you would think waino would be bad cause his last start at coors? This minute he pitching much better than last 2 years and historically him along w most cards staff pitch well there.

 

[2daBank]

Play it again 2marro before it goes lower. Lynn pitching for dollars and Marquez has plenty of stuff to deal w cards sluggish bats. I mostly came here to check ump and havnt yet but it take a ugly one for me not to play under again. (Please don't cite rox p v b against Lynn), another guy who stuff plays fine at tude and will continue try and carry this team.. 6+ and pen will be up to task. Assume pretty much same from rocks staff. Just don't see it taking more than 5runs to win.

 

[geezer]

'Overachieving' ... watch them on a regular basis and they are as deep as any team in baseball. I'm sure they'll be some regression for short periods of time but they are doing this without their best pitcher in John Gray. Charlie Blackmon will start the All-Star game and Nolan Arenado is the best third baseman in baseball. Not sure all of this young pitching will hold up but they aren't smoke and mirrors. Holland is back to elite form as a closer and Ottavino and McGee have been capable set up men. May not be able to hold off the Dodgers but won't be surprised if they do.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Waino was excellent as advertised. Rosenthal wanted to get cute but there wasn't much chance of seeing 11 by then. Dunno why you would think waino would be bad cause his last start at coors? This minute he pitching much better than last 2 years and historically him along w most cards staff pitch well there.

Sorry forgot to respond. Yeah that's the big point I missed. Absolutely spot on from you: Last year he was a very different (much worse, especially inconsistent) pitcher than he is now. Thanks for that. Thanks for saving my money, friend.