My Pick for the World Cup Winner...

U

~Utah

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
I heard a question (off the continent podcast) that asked what team could you see winning that would be somewhat of a surprise (I.E Portugal 2016). The podcast pointed out that theres never been a surprise winner for the World Cup. While there has only been 20 World Cups to kind of put it in perspective...only 8 teams have won, with 3 of those teams only winning one. 2 of those teams won at home, England and France. The point of this is to say is that the 'dark horses' never win, its either the home team or one of the favorites.

Russia as the home team certainly won't win, though +5000 is an outrageous number as this might be the worst home team ever until 2022...

That leaves 5 possibilities in my mind Brazil (+420), Germany (+440), Spain (+620), France (+680), and Argentina (+930) - Belgium nor England make the cut for me

For Argentina - they are out for me. Obviously you have Messi, Aguero and ADM, but they are pretty weak on the defensive side. Besides, all of these guys seem to dissapear in the major tournaments when it comes to showing up in the big games on the international stage...

Moving on in South America, I'm not that sure about Brazil's defense either. Marquinhos and Miranda are fine central defenders - maybe Thiago Silva?, but when comparing to the other three I have left on the board - they aren't nearly as good - they are out for me.

Overall for me France is the most talented team but I don't this feels like a team with a ton of pressure to win, with a coach that has a ton of pressure on him and will surely be gone if they don't win after the World Cup. They have a team that has the feeling of throwing up a dud, talented but they'll get too cocky. Sweep through the group stage, and then struggle against weaker teams in the knockout stage.

That leaves Spain and Germany for me - looking at the bracket they have a very good chance of meeting in the Semis. There's really no wrong way to go here but I lean Spain to win the game and advance to the finals. top to bottom I like Spain more, but couldn't fault anyone for thinking I'm wrong. After that - it's up to Spain to finish in the finals.

The reasoning is not the greatest, and I'm sure I'm gonna have some people poking holes into it left and right, but I feel good with my thoughts.

My PICK - Spain +620
 
with tiki-taka pretty much dead in relation to its previous dominance, i'd love to hear why you think they'll beat GER? While i don't see a blowout, it seems everybody else likes the Germans
 
GWarner27 said:
with tiki-taka pretty much dead in relation to its previous dominance, i'd love to hear why you think they'll beat GER? While i don't see a blowout, it seems everybody else likes the Germans
Click to expand...

Germans have a far harder road to the semis than Spain does, not entirely confident they will get there but they should. Spain doesn't have great striker option, but Germany's problems are far greater - theres a reason that Mario Gomez is still an option - the option is not a good one for Germany

People have read far too much in the Confederation Cup and the U21 Euros. The Confed cup is irrelevant and overall Spain played better in the U21's then Germany, just couldn't get the goals when it matter.

Overall from top to bottom Spain has more talent,chemistry and experience IMO then Germany, its all about whether they can get past that German pragmatism and hold onto that lead.
 
the issues on spains strikers are overblown

I think aspas will get a shot at some point and work really well with the throughballs iniesta and silva feed him
 
Gomez is a reserve striker( how much playing time do you think he is going get) and a good option to have late in the game if they are looking for a late equalizer or goal. I think in general the target striker is undervalued , but I think it’s pretty important in the international game .

I like Spain over Germany, but I disagree they have more chemistry than Germany
 
thanks for the thoughts, agreed that being paired with Group A is a godsend even if they finish runner-up because URU seems to be the weakest group favorite
 
braves said:
Gomez is a reserve striker( how much playing time do you think he is going get) and a good option to have late in the game if they are looking for a late equalizer or goal. I think in general the target striker is undervalued , but I think it’s pretty important in the international game .

I like Spain over Germany, but I disagree they have more chemistry than Germany
Click to expand...

i assume you meant overvalued, but it sounds like Gomez is gonna play the Klose role. IIRC Klose was at least considered for the golden boot, not so much anymore though?
 
No I think it’s undervalued, it’s probably because the game has changed a lot over the last 10-15 years , and there really aren’t many great ones out there , but a striker that has the ability to play with his back to goal and hold up play is a good asset

A quality target striker forces the CBs to Stay central and opens stuff up on the wings for the attacking teams

It’s why you see teams like France and Germany who have loads of talent put these types of guys in their 23 man rosters

Gomez is a couple of years at least past his prime , but low trust him and he probably thinks he can be an asset late in the game if they are forced to ping a bunch balls in the box
 
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No one wants to be down a goal against ze Germans last 10 minutes, it will be a gallery
 
KJ said:
If you think Timo is an issue at striker I've got a shrink for you
Click to expand...

Hes their weakest spot on the field arguably

I like him a lot, but hes probably not even in the top 10 of strikers at this tourney, maybe even top half

Muller and marco their big goal scoring threats
 
guaranteeed said:
Hes their weakest spot on the field arguably

I like him a lot, but hes probably not even in the top 10 of strikers at this tourney, maybe even top half

Muller and marco their big goal scoring threats
Click to expand...

Exactly and there is two problems with Muller and Marco

Muller is still a good player, but hes not scoring like he was 4 years ago, hes just not even close really.

Macro? Just never know if hes gonna stay healthy. I don't think any bet should be made when you ar relying on him in anyway

Gomez is a fine option to bring off the bench in the 70th minute, but not for the 2nd favorite in the World Cup.

I just think they are gonna really struggle to score goals. There's no real definite option.
 
Werner speed is critical to me, I'm sure I rate him higher than most but Muller looked like he was running in mud most of this last season
 
Heard a respected commentator talk about Spain

- best goalkeeper in the tournament
- best defense in the tournament
- control the game in midfield
- Doesn’t think you need a World class striker to win this tournament , especially with how adaptable they can be with formations
- one of the only teams that “ press” in the international game
- said he was somewhat shocked they aren’t the betting favorite
 
Have a feeling Spain and France close the gap with the other two by next week wrt futures. France path to the semis might just be to beat Portugal in the quarters. Spain path to semis might really only be to beat Russia in the first knockout, I don't value Argie for much of anything at this point
 
KJ said:
Have a feeling Spain and France close the gap with the other two by next week wrt futures. France path to the semis might just be to beat Portugal in the quarters. Spain path to semis might really only be to beat Russia in the first knockout, I don't value Argie for much of anything at this point
Click to expand...

So the French guy on the guardian podcast said that he expected France to make it to the quarters and he absolutely shocked to find out they were one of the favorites at 7/1.

I think he’s being a bit crazy but one opinion
 
Yeah I heard one guy say he thinks the ceiling is semis . Said the formation that best suits Griezmann doesn’t suit Pogba and vice versa . This guy said he wouldn’t be shocked if as they move further along in the tourney thst Pogba isn’t a starter
 
~Utah said:
So the French guy on the guardian podcast said that he expected France to make it to the quarters and he absolutely shocked to find out they were one of the favorites at 7/1.

I think he’s being a bit crazy but one opinion
Click to expand...
I'm just confused where the resistance comes from before the quarters, and even then assuming Portugal they have a target on their backs
 
braves said:
Yeah I heard one guy say he thinks the ceiling is semis . Said the formation that best suits Griezmann doesn’t suit Pogba and vice versa . This guy said he wouldn’t be shocked if as they move further along in the tourney thst Pogba isn’t a starter
Click to expand...

so Griezmann is the more critical asset? That surprises me
 
KJ said:
Have a feeling Spain and France close the gap with the other two by next week wrt futures. France path to the semis might just be to beat Portugal in the quarters. Spain path to semis might really only be to beat Russia in the first knockout, I don't value Argie for much of anything at this point
Click to expand...

i defer to you, but they have to go through the host (even if they suck) and then one of the two best players in the world before they bump into the opening favorite. I can't see that being fortunate compared to the others
 
GWarner27 said:
i defer to you, but they have to go through the host (even if they suck) and then one of the two best players in the world before they bump into the opening favorite. I can't see that being fortunate compared to the others
Click to expand...
Are you talking France or Spain? French win the group and only have to go thru Croatia (my guess) and Portugal...and they're loaded, CR7 doesn't hold that much weight to me. Like I said, after Euros Portugal are gonna have targets on their backs anyway
 
As for Spain, that will be some shit soccer but effective possession...none of those matches would be easy whatsoever although Arg just isn't scary at all to me and I'm a fan of half their team
 
~Utah said:
So the French guy on the guardian podcast said that he expected France to make it to the quarters and he absolutely shocked to find out they were one of the favorites at 7/1.

I think he’s being a bit crazy but one opinion
Click to expand...

Which one? Phillipe auclair?
 
KJ said:
As for Spain, that will be some shit soccer but effective possession...none of those matches would be easy whatsoever although Arg just isn't scary at all to me and I'm a fan of half their team
Click to expand...

They dont really play the possession tiki taka anymore
 
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You think Spain will play attacking futbol in this? I have a hard time seeing it, group is basically decided before it starts and I really don't see any reason....to be fair I haven't watched them at all. Just not sure who's scoring here, MFs? Obv Costa can but where does pace come from?
 
Pogba thing wouldnt surprise me, they did it last euros

If he struggles or team isnt doing great, a lineup of

Giroud
Lemar griezmann mbappe
Kante matuidi

Makes a ton of sense
 
KJ said:
You think Spain will play attacking futbol in this? I have a hard time seeing it, group is basically decided before it starts and I really don't see any reason....to be fair I haven't watched them at all. Just not sure who's scoring here, MFs? Obv Costa can but where does pace come from?
Click to expand...

All im saying is they dont play possession based or 'boring' like you say anymore

Ever since xavi retired they dont have the playere to really even do it

They attack quite a bit
 
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Spain the main team I'm going off names, so if they press they could put up a nice goal diff in groups if it comes to that I guess...who the hell scores for them?
 
Rodrigo if he gets time is a danger, ascensio too should since iniesta likely wont play 90 mins in group stages at least, may even be rested for 1
 
~Utah said:
I heard a question (off the continent podcast) that asked what team could you see winning that would be somewhat of a surprise (I.E Portugal 2016). The podcast pointed out that theres never been a surprise winner for the World Cup. While there has only been 20 World Cups to kind of put it in perspective...only 8 teams have won, with 3 of those teams only winning one. 2 of those teams won at home, England and France. The point of this is to say is that the 'dark horses' never win, its either the home team or one of the favorites.

Russia as the home team certainly won't win, though +5000 is an outrageous number as this might be the worst home team ever until 2022...

That leaves 5 possibilities in my mind Brazil (+420), Germany (+440), Spain (+620), France (+680), and Argentina (+930) - Belgium nor England make the cut for me

For Argentina - they are out for me. Obviously you have Messi, Aguero and ADM, but they are pretty weak on the defensive side. Besides, all of these guys seem to dissapear in the major tournaments when it comes to showing up in the big games on the international stage...

Moving on in South America, I'm not that sure about Brazil's defense either. Marquinhos and Miranda are fine central defenders - maybe Thiago Silva?, but when comparing to the other three I have left on the board - they aren't nearly as good - they are out for me.

Overall for me France is the most talented team but I don't this feels like a team with a ton of pressure to win, with a coach that has a ton of pressure on him and will surely be gone if they don't win after the World Cup. They have a team that has the feeling of throwing up a dud, talented but they'll get too cocky. Sweep through the group stage, and then struggle against weaker teams in the knockout stage.

That leaves Spain and Germany for me - looking at the bracket they have a very good chance of meeting in the Semis. There's really no wrong way to go here but I lean Spain to win the game and advance to the finals. top to bottom I like Spain more, but couldn't fault anyone for thinking I'm wrong. After that - it's up to Spain to finish in the finals.

The reasoning is not the greatest, and I'm sure I'm gonna have some people poking holes into it left and right, but I feel good with my thoughts.

My PICK - Spain +620
Click to expand...


How can anyone disagree with Spain?

When Spanish players play another team from another country it seems that Spain has the ball for like 90 percent of the game.

They have the best defender in the world in Ramos.

Pique is decent.

They have been the most talented team in the past decade.

If they meet Germany they will smash them easily.

Germans are all big taller guys and Spain had quick little guy who will control the ball all day long.

I really ghink Spain can win this tourney.
 
GWarner27 said:
with tiki-taka pretty much dead in relation to its previous dominance, i'd love to hear why you think they'll beat GER? While i don't see a blowout, it seems everybody else likes the Germans
Click to expand...

Has the German side beat Real Madrid in the past 3-4 seasons?

No they haven’t.

Has any English premiere team beaten Real Madrid or Barcelona?

No.

Spain dominates teams that are bigger and taller. They are too quick and fast.

They are all winners in that many of them have won world cups champions league titles and la ligatitles.

Other than the Germany World Cup the Germans with their Bayern Munich’s and Dortmund are always RUNNERS UPS.
I believe head to head Germans are intimidated by Spaniards in soccer.

Soccer is a sport for smaller guys. The smaller dudes will beat the bigger guys because they control the ball with possession.
 
No forward can beat Ramos.

He is playing like cannavarro did in his prime.

He quickly disposed of Mohammed Salah with one Wwe style body slam.

This guy is on his game and I expect Spain to conceed less than 5 goals in the entire tourney
 

Spain has Real Madrid players.

Real has the best players in the world.

Don’t fool yourself about guys like Thomas mueller and Matt’s Hummel and ribbery who never produce when needed.


The iscos and ascensio is a future star.
 
Just so no one assumes differently after reading as well, madrid projects to have 3 starters for spain, carvajal, isco, ramos

Madrids best players are portugese, croatian, and welsh, besides ramos
 
guaranteeed said:
Just so no one assumes differently after reading as well, madrid projects to have 3 starters for spain, carvajal, isco, ramos

Madrids best players are portugese, croatian, and welsh, besides ramos
Click to expand...


They also have pique and jordy Alba and busquetts.

So half the team is a mix of Barca and real.

To me that will defeat a Brazilian soft side that has questions and a solid tested German side.
If Germany starts mueller it’s like playing with 10 men. This guy disappeares vs elite competition.
 
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