My opinions on Portland GS

[tuck321]

Roy is history and what has been happening for the last 6 losses by Portland is under and no cover. The last 5 times GS has won the game has gone under. Aldridge is likely to play but for how long? Roy at GS earlier this year scored 26 with 6 rebounds. Aldridge 15 and 7 playing 33 minutes and 26 seconds. GS at home vs Portland last 8 the ou is 1-6-1. Looking at GS recent home games in the first quarter they beat the Lakers by 8, Houston by 3, Griz by 12, Toronto by 18, Portland by 7 and 66ers by 8.
My impression is that the only reason GS would not cover this game is that it is GS a team that is 6-14 ats last 20 at home and they are playing on 2 days rest where they are 3-7 ats. If forced to bet I would say they cover this one but no one is forcing me so would doubt that I bet them. Just think Portland will show up vs Bobcats and likely blow this off. Referees are 1 big over, 1 moderate over, and 1 no direction. Despite this I might bet the game under depending on the total. Almost certainly I hit the first quarter and maybe parlay Denver and GS ml. Good Night GL

 

[tuck321]

I lied. Started looking at Detroit Miami. Miami tomorrow will be playing 5th in 7 and 14 without 2 days off. In their last five games in the first quarter they have scored 20, 17, 17, 20, and 16. They are coming off an overtime game.
Detroit will be playing 4th in 5 after the HARD FOUGHT game vs Toronto. Detroit has faced the Heat twice this year. Th first time the Heat actually had a team and the first quarter was 26 Detroit the road team to 22 Heat. The second time Detroit was a 16 point home fav. The first quarter score was 22-18 with the Heat winning the quarter on the road.
I really do not think Detroit will actually lose this game. Something that flagrant might provoke investigation. Will look at a first quarter under. Detroit is going to do what they decide to do. Unlike yesterday what that is is not terribly obvious. You really have to appreciate what a kick the Detroit players are feeling. A new career opening up as their basketball careers are reaching an end. Just how many of these guys are going to be taking acting school classes when NBA shuts down. What will the play be today? I'm sort of blank right now so post your scripts if you have them.

 

[JPicks]

Regarding the Detroit Soap Opera I think you're going to see 100% effort by the Pistons in the 1st half. I think they'll be a bit annoyed that they even half to play this game and they'll want to get all the work out of the way in the beginning. I'm expecting a 25 point first half lead that Detroit will give away in the 2nd half and win by 13 or so. Work hard (1st half), Play hard (2nd half).


And the Pistons just opened at -21 at Pinny. Way to high IMO.

 

[Sactown King]

Kinda leaning on MIA here since DET has clinched their division title. Both teams are playing tired ball but MIA is still forced to play hard with the limited players they have while DET is just leaning on trying to find good combinations and preserve their health. -22 is kinda high for a pistons team b2b so i doubt they'll win that big..

 

[tuck321]

Jay I can see that variation but I am not sure it will be the whole first half. Pistons have played 2 4 in 5s that I see. Could have missed one due to pitiful eyesight. In the 2 that I saw which were both away the first quarter was 18-18 at the Knicks and 16-26 at NO. Keep in mind on the spread that Detroit at home after a loss is currently 9-0 su and ats. There is also a question as their next game is Cleveland as to how long they keep up the farce. At some point the coach is going to want them to tune up their game for the playoffs and by losing vs Toronto while Boston won the lead is now 6 and the games remaining are shrinking. Have locked in under 46.5 first quarter and laying 3 with GS first quarter.

 

[tuck321]

Sactown, I understand why you think that. Both you and Jay think the spread is too much. Remember Toronto. Miami played a good game vs the Bucks and ended winning 112-106. The next game at Toronto they scored 54 points. This is worst 5 games in 7 nights after a serious effort ending in OT vs the Knicks. Is it actually strange to wonder if they get past 70 here.

 

[Sactown King]

tuck, the game against Toronto is different. Bosh played in that game and they are still jocking for playoff position. As for Detroit, they have clinched the playoff spot so there is really no motivation to play at all. Pistons dont want another injury as seen in dixon and hamilton so i doubt they'll let the starters play that hard. So it all depends if the bench of Detroit can hang on to win big in this game.

 

[tuck321]

I agree with that. The starters probably will not play that long. Which brings up the question is that a good thing or a bad thing. I do not see the Detroit starters as being nasty people. They know exactly how terrible it has been for this Heat team and rubbing it in is not a high priority. The bench----these guys are just working for stats which is what they should do. If the Heat go into deep freeze they will still score some. If they get to 95 points today is that a Heat cover?
At halftime, if this goes badly for the Heat first half as I tend to expect a third quarter bet on the Heat might make money. It is the only quarter on the road they have consistently scored in but I see any Heat bet here as very dangerous.
Change of topic for a moment. Lets smuggle in some Hockey. Teams a and b are playing at a. The last 10 times a has played at home unspecified event has occurred 7 to 3 times. Last 4 times b has played at a the event has occurred 3 of the 4 times. At pinnacle you can get plus 35 cents betting on the event, at the Greek 30 and at 5d you get 25 cents. Thats the situation today in Buffalo at Ottawa. The 2 goalies played a very tight game a few days ago thru the first 2 periods with the score 1-1 and in the third period both fell apart and 7 goals were scored. I tend to think that makes a low scoring first period more likely not less today and bet under 1.5 getting 30 and 25 cents since I can no longer bet at Pinnacle. I am going to repeat myself. The last 10 times Ottawa has played at home the first period has gone under 1.5 7 times and the last 4 times Buffalo has played at Ottawa the first period has gone under 3 times. Life is a gamble and I roll dice a lot.

 

[B.A.R.]

Good discussion fellas.

Detroit bench will get a lot of play. Stuckey played a lot on Monday and admitted he was whiped. He played like crap for three qtrs last night then was great in 4th. Could he be a bit tired? He kind of is what makes the 2nd unit go these days.

 

[EHS49]

PISTONS FIRST UNIT:bong:


PISTONS 2ND UNIT:whip:MIAMI 1ST UNIT, WHICH IS ACTUALLY THEIR 3RD UNIT

 

[tuck321]

More smuggling. The last 20 times the Islanders have played at Pitt they have been held to under 2 goals 1 time. Their team total today is 2. Fluery has been playing very well. Especially well on Tuesdays where he simply shuts people out. The next game however on the two 1 day rests he has lost 5-2 games both times. For most of last year he was very poor after shutouts as well.

 

[JPicks]

More smuggling. The last 20 times the Islanders have played at Pitt they have been held to under 2 goals 1 time. Their team total today is 2. Fluery has been playing very well. Especially well on Tuesdays where he simply shuts people out. The next game however on the two 1 day rests he has lost 5-2 games both times. For most of last year he was very poor after shutouts as well.

Who are these Islanders you speak of? NBA Developmental League? Minor League Baseball? Just kidding tuck. good luck with whatever sports you're playing tonight.

 

[SportsNut]

Miami is 0-4 ATS backend as dogs last 4 occurrences dating back to XMas when playing B2B road games , they are 0-2 ATS when playing B2B off OT , they wont have Jason Williams and Daquean Cook is questionable with a concussion leaving Blake Ahearne as the starter? , they are playing 5 in 7 all different cities , 11 in 17 and 13th game in 20 days with a depleted roster. Seems like a terrible spot to me no matter how tired a few Pistons might be gimme Ratliff , Maxiell , Amir Johnson , Stuckey , Hayes any day....

You saw how it was letdown spt after the MILW win and Tor in need of a win killed Miami. Same should happen here. Abit of a tough spot playing 4 in 5 but they had 3 days off prior. Both teams have to fly in.We ll know about DET defense and teh series history is littered with udners and ganmes that feel aroudn 180 points. UNDER is 39-12-1 L52 Thursday Nite DET games ...18-6-1 UNDER L 25 meetings...

I agree DET wants this done with quickly thats why I like :

Det 1st H -12
2nd quarter -6
Miami Under 79 TT
Under 179 game...but somehwat concerned that DEt scores like 105-110 here

Yesterday Miami hit 15 of 31 3s but made just 17 two point buckets.


Last 3 15+ spreads for Miami ...+18 Charlotte , +19 Tor and +15.5 Dallas. So the quality teams won by 20+ effortlessly while Char a bottomfeeder won by 12 and really has no right laying 18 to anyone....

Put Prince on Ricky Davis and then...

Quinn
Cook or Ahearne
Barron
Blount

Lasme
Anthony
Powell
A.Johnson?
B.Jones?



It appears that Alridge will sit out according to rotoworld.

So Under 210

Not crazy about the Dal/Den game but like 1st H Over 108. Concerned DEN could blow them out but as already mentioned thinking DAL needs to play fast..

Thats it really couldnt get into quarter plays but like Tucks ideas and think DET could really make this ugly at least for 3 quarters

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I'm seeing 2 low total lines for both Western home team games. 1 is headed under, the question is which

 

[JPicks]

Regarding the Detroit Soap Opera I think you're going to see 100% effort by the Pistons in the 1st half. I think they'll be a bit annoyed that they even half to play this game and they'll want to get all the work out of the way in the beginning. I'm expecting a 25 point first half lead that Detroit will give away in the 2nd half and win by 13 or so. Work hard (1st half), Play hard (2nd half).


And the Pistons just opened at -21 at Pinny. Way to high IMO.

Or not. I love having a +22 ticket at this point, but I'm amazed at how crappy the Pistons look(ed) in the first half. Anyways the point of this is to warn those looking to load up on the Pistons in the 2nd half. They've been in this spot before and they may simply do just enough to win. You're going to see a line that is -10 or so for the 2nd half and I'm not sure the Pistons really care enough to cover it.

 

[EHS49]

I'm seeing 2 low total lines for both Western home team games. 1 is headed under, the question is which

i took the over in dallas and denver. so the under must be gsw? no roy iffy aldrich. i dunno. gsw could blow em out. imma take gsw first quarter and gsw first half bc. let me know what you think otherwise on the side and total.

 

[tuck321]

I have under 210 and minus 3 first quarter. Thats all. BOL

 

[tuck321]

Funny games. Heat do score under 70 but still cover. Not that big a surprise I suppose. Just another guessing game.

 

[tuck321]

Scary note dog has covered in every first half.

 

[EHS49]

that's why i'm on gsw first quarter -3.5

 

[Sactown King]

Leaning on Por here... But no going to play it anymore since gsw will be pumped up since gsw and den are now tied for 8th.

 

[tuck321]

A little closer than you liked Mike but I believe you got under 105 and 103 scored so we both cashed. :cheers:

 

[Toronto_Mike]

thanks for the play Tuck, had to sweat that one out!

 

[BetCrimes1984]

i took the over in dallas and denver. so the under must be gsw? no roy iffy aldrich. i dunno. gsw could blow em out. imma take gsw first quarter and gsw first half bc. let me know what you think otherwise on the side and total.

Sorry I never got back to you, EHS. I took off after I decided on passing the rest of the day (after fortunately missing getting my Sens bet on).

 

[EHS49]

the under WAS gsw. even had a chance for that second half. all good. just waiting for your bubbling under the surface play haha..