My New NBA strategy.

[RambleOn]

Please, those that lost tonight don't take offense to this. This is not a thread bashing you at all. After the last two nights tailing plays, however, I have realized that NBA is such a totally different sport than college basketball, and teams that should cover don't nearly do it on as consistent basis. Many of these fucking NBA players just look lazy at times, and don't seem to bring it on every play of every contest.

I'm fading the "public" or "sexy" looking pick from now on, end of story. I will never allow myself to bet on an NBA side that looks too good to be true, because they rarely are.

IF I ever bet this crap shoot sport again, I'll post my picks, but you can bet it won't be a popular one when I do. :shake:

 

[sharpie]

Please, those that lost tonight don't take offense to this. This is not a thread bashing you at all. After the last two nights tailing plays, however, I have realized that NBA is such a totally different sport than college basketball, and teams that should cover don't nearly do it on as consistent basis. Many of these fucking NBA players just look lazy at times, and don't seem to bring it on every play of every contest.

I'm fading the "public" or "sexy" looking pick from now on, end of story. I will never allow myself to bet on an NBA side that looks too good to be true, because they rarely are.

IF I ever bet this crap shoot sport again, I'll post my picks, but you can bet it won't be a popular one when I do. :shake:

Now ur getting the hang of it.

 

[Ray]

Actually it is not only on Pro sports, it does happen on the College sports too. What will you do if public get correct calls on next few games while you pick the opposite?

 

[Marlo]

cue the music

Ramble did you ever play poker?

 

[Marlo]

I also think alot of people tailed BAR on this, and they especially tailed him because it was a GOY pick.

1. BAR has been a successful capper for years.
2. I have read what he has to say since the covers day
3. He knows hoops
4. when he talks, people listen, people follow successful people thats why we have far less CEOs in the workforce than workers.

so if he would have picked Orlando, Dal, Det, or Boston tonight would you have posted this same topic? All were "sexy" favs that covered or pushed. All had a tad bit of "uncertanty"

Thing is people these games come and go, you win way more than you lose in these type of situations. This is something we all need to realize, nothing is guarenteed, but we bet and we choose to bet based on all the factors we can put down, for the exception of actually going out there and playing the game.

I have toyed with fading "public" topic on many situations. The thing we dont realize is we all are the public, some just alittle smarter than others.

If we werent the public we would be in Vegas, and we would be hired by the "sharps" to set the lines.

just my .02 on the soapboxes that will eventually come after this game tonight.

 

[RambleOn]

Marlo - I make VERY good money playing poker online. :shake:



Also, as I said at first, this is not a bash on BAR or anyone else that had this game. It's my fault for tailing blindly and I'm willing to deal with it. However, I'm saying this because looking back at my spreadsheet, NBA has KILLED me this year, and it's all tailing. I'm plus money on my totals system, and getting absolutely smoked on NBA sides tailiing people.

In college basketball, to me it is easier to see motivation and tell who has it and who doesn't. I don't know the NBA, so I dont know the situation for this game. The announcers kept saying Nets were desperate for a win. Why would I bet against a team so desperate for a win, especially with a line that looked so "sexy". Looking back at it, I should have faded, and that is what I am going to do in the future. :shake:

 

[sharpie]

Marlo - I make VERY good money playing poker online. :shake:



Also, as I said at first, this is not a bash on BAR or anyone else that had this game. It's my fault for tailing blindly and I'm willing to deal with it. However, I'm saying this because looking back at my spreadsheet, NBA has KILLED me this year, and it's all tailing. I'm plus money on my totals system, and getting absolutely smoked on NBA sides tailiing people.

In college basketball, to me it is easier to see motivation and tell who has it and who doesn't. I don't know the NBA, so I dont know the situation for this game. The announcers kept saying Nets were desperate for a win. Why would I bet against a team so desperate for a win, especially with a line that looked so "sexy". Looking back at it, I should have faded, and that is what I am going to do in the future. :shake:

emotion is a much, much bigger factor in college ball for both football and hoops.

 

[All In]

Ramble, I also lost money tailing this season, but some of these cappers reputation precedes their current records and I have faith that they will turn things around.
As for your totals system, I made good money on it when you were posting them. I hope your finals went well and you will continue to post those totals.

GLTY

 

[Marlo]

Marlo - I make VERY good money playing poker online. :shake:



So then you know even if you lose with Aces 5-10 times in a row, you still dont fold them preflop.

 

[Killa]

Ramble- I like the contrarianism, but you have to be careful not to become what my boy Dan calls a "square sharp." There are many squares on the forums. But there are also "square sharps." These are the guys that fade the public for the sake of fading the public, take every big dog, etc. I love fading these guys as much as I love fading regular squares. So, in closing... Don't become a square sharp lol.

 

[AtlHawks]

Post those totals damnit!!!!

 

[RambleOn]

Ramble- I like the contrarianism, but you have to be careful not to become what my boy Dan calls a "square sharp." There are many squares on the forums. But there are also "square sharps." These are the guys that fade the public for the sake of fading the public, take every big dog, etc. I love fading these guys as much as I love fading regular squares. So, in closing... Don't become a square sharp lol.

I understand, and I won't fall prey to that Killa. Thanks for the advice. I just see a huge difference motivation wise in the NBA, and I think I can exploit it when the line looks "fishy".

Marlo - I know what you're saying with AA. Bad beats happen, ALL THE TIME, trust me I know. But if you play certain situations the same way, you'll win. What I'm saying is - was tonight REALLY the time to go huge on the Cavs? I don't think so. Looking back at it, it seemed like a game that the Nets REALLY needed, and the Cavs performed so well last game, and then are only laying 2 against a struggling Nets team. It was time to take the Nets, is all I'm saying.

 

[RambleOn]

Then again, I know NOTHING about capping the NBA. So take my words with a grain of salt. What I DO know, is that my money is depleting, and it's because of mostly favorites in this pussy sport. :shake:

 

[Throwback420]

Dogs and Ml's

 

[H.R. Pufnstuf]

I take it you laid the points with Cleveland tonight

 

[RambleOn]

I take it you laid the points with Cleveland tonight

I don't know if that is a smart ass comment but yes, I did. I actually laid them for the largest bet I have ever made in NBA, and look what happened. You think I'd be making this thread if I had won that game?

I have lost money tailing the obvoius plays. All my mind can think to do is fade those plays and make money. This isn't a one time thing. This has been happening all season. All i'm trying to do is figure out how to get my money back. :shake:

 

[RambleOn]

Post those totals damnit!!!!

I am going to start, now that I am done with finals. I just haven't had time. The 3 unit plays are now 11-3 on the year, plus around 30 units. I will continue to hammer those until they lose me money. :smiley_acbe:

 

[bee172]

I am going to start, now that I am done with finals. I just haven't had time. The 3 unit plays are now 11-3 on the year, plus around 30 units. I will continue to hammer those until they lose me money. :smiley_acbe:

speaking of totals.. curious to know what ur system has for indy/mia tmrw.. strong lean on the UNDER in that game.. L3 @ miami these two teams avg. 175.6, L5 h2h avg. 185.6, indy L3 b2b avg. 191.6 .. L3 miami home games 191.6 ..

o/u at 207.5.............

 

[divol]

I'm new on this site, but this is my third season tipping on NBA on many sites and fourth betting myself.
In December I'm losing money, tailing my own tips, perhaps I should really stop taking my own tips. But to be honest, I don't believe that. All three seasons so far, I hit between 65 and 67 percent (at least on my strong plays, since I used a different style of count in the beginning.
I started this season going 13 of 15, that 86% success, which is just crazy and so it was. Since than I lost a bit the count, but I dropped under 50%, but still ended November with a nice profit and I felt the bad streak coming and lower the stakes. December so far, I feel great and very confident, but hitting around 46 - 48 percent and with the juice, I'm close to returning all of my crazy beginning profits to the bookies.
I telling about myself since I know my self and my abilities, success and failers. I strongly believe that I'm can make profits in the NBA and help other people to do so. Still, it doesn't mean that in a season that lasts half a year + playoffs, tipsters can't enter a bad streak or a good streak.
I been amazed several times on the level of understanding that some of the guys on the site have. I don't remember names, because I new o the site, but it is clear to me, that there are people here, that a bettor should listen to. Still, you should never follow people blindly and more important, people should see who a good tipster and has the needed understanding and than go with him all the way in my opinion. I can have a 10 from 10 week or a 0 - 10 week, does that mean I'm a good/ bad tipster? Maybe, but maybe not. The question is where will you end up in the end of the season following X tipster. I'm willing to end 2 -3 months in a loss, if in the end of the season I will see profit.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Ramble - H.R. hasn't come of as being sarcastic elsewhere, so I'd lean on his post being a genuine question.

 

[aplous]

Is your system still around? That shit was bueno!

 

[aplous]

Word....just read the posts above.

 

[gsro]

i'm new to this forum, just not to capping, it's good that you've come to these realizations, meaning you are learning something and just like the above posts don't become a "square sharp" =) if it doesn't feel right don't lay the $$.....but how about kobe pulling his groin ..made my night 4-1...