My lines for Week 1 (with my leans highlighted in GREEN)

BigTymePlayer25

BigTymePlayer25

Pretty much a regular
Thursday:
3* tulane +6
2* Tulane +7.5

friday:
3* colorado st +3

saturday:
4* troy pk
2* troy +3
3* nw -10
3* Clemson+10
3* bc-14.5
4* marshall-23.5
3* florida-35
3* miss st-30.5
3* uw-15.5
3* North Texas+21.5

sunday:
3* utah st +7

Monday:
4* Lville -3 (-130)
 
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thanks Schrute! I usually try to limit my plays to 7 per week or so, but I see 15 games that i really like on this week 1 card. I hate to play that many, but I think the only weeks we can really crush the books is weeks 1-5. After that, the value seems to really disappear. GL this season bro
 
Two questions: what are you key inputs into your numbers and how does your projected/predicted line address personnel changes? The common thread to most of your larger variances (from the current market line) is that your lean prefers teams that lost a lot of key players. Utah St, Louisville, North Texas, and about 5 others come instantly to mind.

This could be easily explained if your final PR's from last year are you starting point for developing them this year. Just curious. Thanks for sharing.
 
Have to respect someone who isn't scared to come in and post numbers when a few are way off market. Plenty of assholes out there who love to come in after the fact and say Clemson PK is a joke when they see everyone at 7.5...but none of them could even get in the ballpark without first having a reference point.

GL BTP, hope you keep posting these in the future...
 
Good luck this year and agree with Lind ..it takes balls to post lines on these forums and kudos to you for doing it. I would also have a couple of lines way off from market ...

Couple of questions ....

1. What would you make FSU vs Michigan on a neutral field?
2. Why is Wake Forest not a lean? Went through a lot of key numbers.

Actually tend to agree with a lot of your leans... have a great season
 
clowncar said:
Good luck this year and agree with Lind ..it takes balls to post lines on these forums and kudos to you for doing it. I would also have a couple of lines way off from market ...

Couple of questions ....

1. What would you make FSU vs Michigan on a neutral field?
2. Why is Wake Forest not a lean? Went through a lot of key numbers.

Actually tend to agree with a lot of your leans... have a great season
Click to expand...

thanks bud! i've enjoyed reading your threads for years, and I've learned a lot from you so BIG thanks for that!
1) I'd make FSU-24 on a neutral against Meeeechigan
2) Wake would be a "talk me off" lean :) i like it but it's a hold-your-noser for sure! I hate laying road chalk especially with bad teams
 
lindetrain said:
Have to respect someone who isn't scared to come in and post numbers when a few are way off market. Plenty of assholes out there who love to come in after the fact and say Clemson PK is a joke when they see everyone at 7.5...but none of them could even get in the ballpark without first having a reference point.

GL BTP, hope you keep posting these in the future...
Click to expand...
thanks LINDE, Best of luck this season my man! My eyes bugged out a little when my excel sheet made Clemson vs UGA a pick, but it is what it is! Both teams will be breaking in new QBs, I know Clemson loses a lot but their D should still be one of the best in the country with Vic Beasley! My PR really just helps me narrow down the board to 10-15 games to study more closely. I never bet strictly on PR alone. I look at Value, Perception, Spot, and the Matchup!
 
FWIW I would have FSU -22.5 over Michigan on a neutral

BTP...lemme know if you wanna chat lines/PRs sometime on the site or off the site
 
i like that clemson defense. uga may have the RB's but clemsons DL should control LOS with georgia losing three 3 yr starters
 
BigTymePlayer25 said:
thanks bud! i've enjoyed reading your threads for years, and I've learned a lot from you so BIG thanks for that!
1) I'd make FSU-24 on a neutral against Meeeechigan
2) Wake would be a "talk me off" lean :) i like it but it's a hold-your-noser for sure! I hate laying road chalk especially with bad teamsok
Click to expand...


ok .. thanks. Not a fan of bad team road chalk either.
 
lindetrain said:
Have to respect someone who isn't scared to come in and post numbers when a few are way off market. Plenty of assholes out there who love to come in after the fact and say Clemson PK is a joke when they see everyone at 7.5...but none of them could even get in the ballpark without first having a reference point.

GL BTP, hope you keep posting these in the future...
Click to expand...

agreed. :shake:
 
also doing my own PR#s, we do have a lot in common. not all, but a lot. good stuff, bro...and best of luck this season.

:tiphat:
 
ADDED TULANE+6 found at betusagree with clowncar, I see a low scoring game with lots of ugliness. I hate the pick, but too much value to pass up IMO
 
thanks Schrute; glad to find you on twiter this morning as well. I'm @MikeNoblinI havent played at betus since 2010 but back then didn't have any problems. Took a couple weeks to get a check once but not too bad. they got me back with their 100% re-up bonus thru a mail ad LOL
 
Added u dub-15.5

Yanks talked me into this one. O line and D line advantage plus Petersen doesn't mind running it up.

Only leans left are north Texas, wash st, and lville.
 
:shake:

fwiw, i use betus too...1 of 4 places i've got $. don't use it much...but every week, they're good for an important 1/2 pt on a dog that you can't find elsewhere. never had an issue with them either.
 
twinkie13 said:
Got time for some Tulane thoughts? Especially after it went against you? Thanks and GL again bro
Click to expand...

Hey twink! I just see it being a very low scoring game, somewhere around 21-17 either way. I'm definitely concerned with RAS or someone else with some big $ being opposite me, but this early in the year I just have to trust my #'s... I like Tulane Coach Curtis Johnson and think he has them going in the right direction. Also, Tanner Lee should be an upgrade over Nick Montana at qb. I do think Tulsa improves this year, but not enough to be a TD fav in this one. GL this week and all season bro. We're almost there
 
BigTymePlayer25 said:
Thursday:
3* tulane +6
2* Tulane +7.5

friday:
3* colorado st +3

saturday:
4* troy pk
2* troy +3
3* nw -10
3* bc-14.5
4* marshall-23.5
3* florida-35
3* miss st-30.5
3* uw-15.5

sunday:
3* utah st +7
Click to expand...


looks like we agree on most. on the other side of Tulane and watch that Tenn line continue to fall
Tenn -3 would be tempting

BOL on the season
 
Tulane leads the whole f#$@in game and loses by 7 in double OT.

Wow! Well at least I had 2* at +7.5 , lose 3* on the +6. Unbelievable
 
brsport13 said:
Bigtyme how big do you think Louisville wins?
Click to expand...

hey bud, i made the game LVILLE-10 but deducted 2 pts for the loss of their all-world WR making it -8. Petrino is a helluva coach and offensive mind and he'll have this offense ready to roll. I think the CANES improve this year, but 1st game of the yr on the rd with a freshman qb, they will find the going rough in this one. GL on your plays
 
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