My largest tennis bet since the Australian Open

King Slap

King Slap

CTG Honorary Super Moderator
Ivo Karlovic -120 vs. Bernard Tomic

It was -115 when I got it on 5dimes an hour ago, and fully expect it to be -130ish by start, so wanted to post as quick as I could.

I will post a write up in the morning, but these are two different classes of players. I actually watched every match Karlovic played in my town of Newport, RI last week, his serve has been on a ridiculous level as of the past year and a half. Hard courts suit him TOO well. The time off he took to develop a return game has been so helpful, he can totally break Bernie 4-5 times tomorrow, with ease. Obviously he will take some games off but when he wants to attack I truly believe he can.

Tomic is dogshit, very basic player on a Mannarino (who is the gold standard of average players on the ATP tour) level Australian wise. He's shit. Shouldnt have beat Estrella either yesterday

I made Dr. Ivo a -250 favorite, so I have maxed out my tennis $ on this, actually have near 5k invested across 3 different books, BOL if you decide to wisely tail
 
Also, Dr. Ivo lost to Hewitt in the final last week (expected, Hewitt wasnt going to lose the Hall of Fame championship again after losing to big serving oaf John Isner 2 years back) but took it 3 sets. And lost in the tiebreak. Guy is a gamer and will be up for this champ match. Tomic is not ready for this, regardless if its Colombia or not. You cannot overestimate recent results in tennis
 
I have a question (for Slap, as he's the tennis expert) about the spread bet and total games bet for this match. If Evo is only +112 on the -1.5 games line, why is the moneyline only -124 (right now at BOL)? Then the total games for Ivo is 13 with -120 to the under....isn't that kinda saying he can be expected to win in straight sets so would only get 12 games? Then again the question would be, why is the line only -124?

I guess my thinking is you could bet Ivo -124, then the over 13 games feeling confident you will hit at least one unless he wins in straight sets (or loses I guess, but the spread bet is, again, only -1.5 games at +112). Or if it's maybe likelier that he wins in straight sets, wouldn't that -1.5 games line be a good bet?
 
my shop opened with Tomic at -120 fwiw. it is now Ivo -120 after a pretty quick move after the open.

Lean your way on the play. Ivo pretty good on hard court and Tomic is still a head case...
 
Lareux said:
I have a question (for Slap, as he's the tennis expert) about the spread bet and total games bet for this match. If Evo is only +112 on the -1.5 games line, why is the moneyline only -124 (right now at BOL)? Then the total games for Ivo is 13 with -120 to the under....isn't that kinda saying he can be expected to win in straight sets so would only get 12 games? Then again the question would be, why is the line only -124?

I guess my thinking is you could bet Ivo -124, then the over 13 games feeling confident you will hit at least one unless he wins in straight sets (or loses I guess, but the spread bet is, again, only -1.5 games at +112). Or if it's maybe likelier that he wins in straight sets, wouldn't that -1.5 games line be a good bet?
Click to expand...

There will be TIebreakers guaranteed. Could be 7-6 6-7 7-6 match.
 
Also I am staying off but, Karlovic is the right side IMO. My only issue, Tomic was dropped by IMG last week. Think he could be on a mission to say fuck you for dropping me
 
GatorsLeafsBills said:
There will be TIebreakers guaranteed. Could be 7-6 6-7 7-6 match.
Click to expand...

Okay so then the over 13 games would look really good, wouldn't it? If he wins one set but loses the match even, he'd have to be easily over 13 games it seems. I may very well be missing something as I don't bet tennis at all....just looking at the odds and how they were set had me wondering why.

I guess I'm wondering if you took the -1.5 at plus money, and then the over 13 games (-110), there's a chance you win them both. If it's a straight set victory, you'd lose the over 13 most likely but win the -1.5 bet. It would be tough to lose both bets unless he lost in straight sets....which the moneyline indicates that isn't very likely at all.
 
Lareux said:
I have a question (for Slap, as he's the tennis expert) about the spread bet and total games bet for this match. If Evo is only +112 on the -1.5 games line, why is the moneyline only -124 (right now at BOL)? Then the total games for Ivo is 13 with -120 to the under....isn't that kinda saying he can be expected to win in straight sets so would only get 12 games? Then again the question would be, why is the line only -124?

I guess my thinking is you could bet Ivo -124, then the over 13 games feeling confident you will hit at least one unless he wins in straight sets (or loses I guess, but the spread bet is, again, only -1.5 games at +112). Or if it's maybe likelier that he wins in straight sets, wouldn't that -1.5 games line be a good bet?
Click to expand...


Appreciate the respect, laughed out loud at the (for Slap) comment. This may make you laugh, as I truly do consider myself the best tennis capper on the planet (truly believe I surpassed n3gative this past year, and I told everyone here years ago it'd be my goal to be the GOAT) but.....I don't bet spreads or games, and don't even really have an answer for you lmao. I've bet spreads maybe 2 or 3 times, and that was big dogs that I covered my ML bets with.

I can't give you any advice besides saying Ivo to me should be -250, up to -300ish. He wins this match over 75% of the time, easy.

Gatorsbillschiefs - Don't look into "getting dropped by so or so" too much, I use to, really doesnt make a difference. Karlovic is a different class than Bernie, and you know it. Stop looking for reasons to lay off, and stop betting shitty matches because you feel you have an edge of knowing one player over the other. Shitty players are shitty players. Thank god for hard court season! But, this is a spot you exploit in tennis all the time, exploit it brother.
 
Lareux said:
Okay so then the over 13 games would look really good, wouldn't it? If he wins one set but loses the match even, he'd have to be easily over 13 games it seems. I may very well be missing something as I don't bet tennis at all....just looking at the odds and how they were set had me wondering why.
Click to expand...

From what I can tell, you're betting Ivo to win over 13 games? That means you're essentially betting it to go to 3 sets. Couldn't you get Ivo @ maybe +300 to win 2-1? Again, I dont bet stuff like that so just an assumption by me

I expect a 6-3, 6-1 type match. It all depends who serves first. I see Ivo breaking a few times though. I'd be shocked if Tomic breaks Ivo once though
 
Slaptron said:
From what I can tell, you're betting Ivo to win over 13 games? That means you're essentially betting it to go to 3 sets. Couldn't you get Ivo @ maybe +300 to win 2-1? Again, I dont bet stuff like that so just an assumption by me

I expect a 6-3, 6-1 type match. It all depends who serves first. I see Ivo breaking a few times though. I'd be shocked if Tomic breaks Ivo once though
Click to expand...

Right, I get that you're essentially betting it to go 3 sets if you do that. So wouldn't you just take the -1.5 games then? If the odds at 13 games is -120, it doesn't make sense to me that the moneyline is only -124, or that the game line is -1.5 games.

If you bet both, at worst it seems you would win one and lose one. If it goes 3 sets, there's a decent chance you win them both.
 
Lareux said:
Okay so then the over 13 games would look really good, wouldn't it? If he wins one set but loses the match even, he'd have to be easily over 13 games it seems. I may very well be missing something as I don't bet tennis at all....just looking at the odds and how they were set had me wondering why.

I guess I'm wondering if you took the -1.5 at plus money, and then the over 13 games (-110), there's a chance you win them both. If it's a straight set victory, you'd lose the over 13 most likely but win the -1.5 bet. It would be tough to lose both bets unless he lost in straight sets....which the moneyline indicates that isn't very likely at all.
Click to expand...


At first this made no sense to me, but now that I re-read it, I guess you're right. Only way you lose is if he loses in 2 sets. That'd be pretty shocking though

Then again, as I said, I dunno much about the game bets....why are you even overlooking this though? lol. Just take karlovic if you're convinced he cant lose 2-0, the odds are in your favor regardless with that logic
 
Lareux said:
Right, I get that you're essentially betting it to go 3 sets if you do that. So wouldn't you just take the -1.5 games then?

If you bet both, at worst it seems you would win one and lose one. If it goes 3 sets, there's a decent chance you win them both.
Click to expand...

True, I'm a sparse bettor though. I don't bet every day, and don't bet flat "units". I pick and choose my spots and pay for trips, rent, things for my girl with my excess money I make off betting, it just happens that tennis is a sport I love following and know I can make money off of. I swill sweat this 5k bet the same I sweated out Dudi Sela for $100 in person last week vs Dr Ivo lmao, it's all relative. Just take the ML bro and enjoy the win
 
Slaptron said:
At first this made no sense to me, but now that I re-read it, I guess you're right. Only way you lose is if he loses in 2 sets. That'd be pretty shocking though

Then again, as I said, I dunno much about the game bets....why are you even overlooking this though? lol. Just take karlovic if you're convinced he cant lose 2-0, the odds are in your favor regardless with that logic
Click to expand...

I'm gonna ride with you, I just took a look at the odds and it didn't really make much sense (mathematically at least) to me why the odds are set the way they are. But again, I don't know much about tennis so I figured I'd ask just to see if it seemed weird to you guys who bet tennis often.
 
Yeah, I don't look that deep into the math/odds anymore. I'm just somebody looking to make extra cash and don't have the time to flat bet. If you are a flat bettor than yes, your logic makes sense. If you're looking to go big on something tmrw, then I believe Karlovic is the bet of the day. Hope that helps
 
I'd personally bet under 13 games for Karlovic fwiw. Where do you see those odds? I'd probably put a few hundo on it myself
 
Lareux said:
I knew what you meant. I was really just curious is all.....didn't (and still doesn't) add up to me why they are set the way they are.
Click to expand...
the situation that happens most frequently in this particular case is that say Ivo wins the first set 7-6, then is broken early in the second set and he's down 2 or 3 points. He may decide to save his energy for the 3rd set. I've lost a few times when the line was -1.5 and the player won the match (I've also won the -1.5 when the player lost the match too but that's pretty infrequent haha).
 
P-Unit said:
the situation that happens most frequently in this particular case is that say Ivo wins the first set 7-6, then is broken early in the second set and he's down 2 or 3 points. He may decide to save his energy for the 3rd set. I've lost a few times when the line was -1.5 and the player won the match (I've also won the -1.5 when the player lost the match too but that's pretty infrequent haha).
Click to expand...

Gotcha. In that case though, you would most likely win the over 13 games bet (if you bet them both).

Now, they've posted the -1.5 sets line at +200, which says it's not that likely he wins in straight sets, so the wager on both -1.5 games and over 13 games should, at worst, net you a push.

GL tomorrow guys, thanks for the help.
 
Slaptron said:
I'd personally bet under 13 games for Karlovic fwiw. Where do you see those odds? I'd probably put a few hundo on it myself
Click to expand...

They are at BOL.

Don't bother doing that now Slap, you're way better off betting Karlovic -1.5 sets at +200. Both bets (under 13 games won and -1.5 sets) are predicting the same outcome....and you get +200 as opposed to -120. Which just adds to the confusion of the lines being set the way they are here.

Of course, you could still win the under 13 games bet if Karlovic were to lose the match and not look good at all, but you're clearly thinking that he wins is straight sets here, so the difference in odds is a no-brainer for you that you go with -1.5 sets at +200.
 
I don't think this will be a cake walk and I don't think Karlo would be -250 or more as suggested.
Both these players were very close to even losing in the semi's, Tomic played a pretty intense match yesterday 7-6 6-7 7-6 and to be honest Karlovic's return game is pretty shit.
His serve on the other hand as most of us tennis guy's know is pretty stellar.
This line is suggesting that it's not as smooth sailing as one would think and the books are going to rely heavily on Ivo breaking that quickly. If it was -300 then there is a suggestion that Tomic's service game is pretty useless which it isn't. He's managed to save and break players at the appropriate times this entire week.
I wouldn't look into Hewitt/Ivo match last week too deeply, different service, different opponent even though similar lines.
If this was Grass, Ivo is heads up way better but Tomic's pace is good enough to match Ivo's power. All you have to do to a big server is frustrate them and make the ball playable, who knows what if Ivo's serve is just not kicking it? Outside of his service game he's pretty mediocre and I would make Tomic the favourite.
So as I see it, right now we are betting on Ivo's serve and not his overall game.

Slap has the right idea here with just playing the ML, man I've seen so much shit with the handicaps some how getting fucked over in the 2nd set or 3rd set. Same with the total, the other day I saw a 3 setter go 6-1 1-6 6-2....22 games how often do you see that?

GL Slap, I think this could be another nailbiter.
 
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