My Gems / Leans for Week 1 of CFB

GridironGems

GridironGems

The Mel Kiper of CTG
7-4-1 YTD

I have spent many hours capping the last couple weeks and I just finished up the last of the games. I have locked in a few games as I have went along due to my thoughts on the line moving before I completed my capping. I went through game by game, matchups, injuries, suspensions, rivals websites, magazines, etc, etc. Well here is what I came up with.

ALREADY PLAYED:

LSU -16.5 .. WIN
Georgia Tech +3
Miami Fl -19
Colorado St +3

ADDED PLAYS:

Texas Tech -10
Troy +24
Virginia -4
Bowling Green +17 (bought .5 pt)
FSU v Clemson UNDER 44.5
WM v WV OVER 53.5
USC -27 1h
Texas -21.5 1h
Texas -39
Cal -6
FSU -3

Looks like I did the right thing with LSU as it sits at -17 now. Same with GT as it sits at 2.5. Colorado St remains the same, but I missed the Miami Fl one. I locked into that play once I heard the news about Miami LB Cook and S Ponder, along with the news of Marshall star DE McClellan. I thought the loss of McClellan was bigger due to the lack of depth and talent at Marshall compared to Miami. I was wrong as the line sits at -18 right now.


Here are my leans:

** stronger lean
* lean

** STRONGER LEANS

Memphis +3
Virginia -4
UCLA -16
Bowling Green +16.5


* SMALLER LEANS

Kent St (when I capped, it was +4, currently +3.5 now)
Washington (when capped +3.5, now +3)
Western Michigan +23.5
Virginia Tech -23.5
UCONN -5.5
Iowa -10.5
Houston +15.5 (but now it's 14.5)
Wisconsin -13
Boston College -6
Cal -5.5
San Jose St +16 (but now +15)
Texas Tech -10
Florida St -3


A couple others could add:
I had Troy as a lean when they were at +26, but currently at +24 now.
Another one that could be added is Kansas St +13.5 . I capped this game to be about 10-13 points, so it is right on in my opinion. But if injuries keep hitting Auburn, it could gain some value.

I know I list a lot of games...but when you cap every single game, you tend to like quite a few at the time. That is why I am posting them for you guys to critique and help me eliminate some of my leans.
All thoughts appreciated.
 
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Gridiron- Nice job with the college games. I waited too long on Troy as well! Have a profitable season bro!
 
Guys...Gems is an up and coming capping star in the ranks. He is a fresh face but knows his shit. I talk to him a lot last 10 months ofline and he is really quite mature in his capping and I respect it a lot.

GG-of what you have locked in I have played LSU since we last talked(I believe) and prolly will fire on the Canes. Still looking at the Rams though. I will get at you tomorrow night.
 
UPDATE:

May be adding Fla St / Clemson under 44.5 not only to my list of leans, but could lock it in as a play soon.

The FSU QB play, on the road, and Clemson defense still being pretty good is keeping me away from locking that game in despite the inexperienced and new QB and OL of Clemson
 
Interested in your thoughts on that SJSU game. It was a game that I also originally had a lean for as well but after "further review" eliminated. How do you think this game goes ?? Arizona State has been so drjekyl/mrhyde the last few years. If you got time , i would love to hear your views on this one.

best of luck this year !!
 
gridirion,

hope you don't mind me responding to Kyle here...

Kyle,

I did the same with the ASU/ SJSU game...reminds me a bit of when Nevada went down there last year...I think SJSU is a quality team, but feel this is a bit of a bad spot for them in week one to travel down to Tempe and face a deeper ASU squad...at the same time, not gonna lay over two TD's with ASU either...
 
i am always long winded , pags but i think you expressed the nuts and bolts of my thoughts on the sjsu game pretty good.


my friends and i used to play paintball at night (15 years ago ) and one of the games we played was a "capture the fort" in a local park. the fort was actually a playground area with lots of cover. anyways, when i was outside the fort trying to shoot the folks inside i always felt like i was at a disadvantage because they had cover and there was lot of open space for me to navigate and be vulnerable to getting hit. But when i was in the fort i felt like i was a sitting duck (werent allowed to leave general area of the playground) at target practice since the enemy always knew right where you were. of course, i felt like i was at a disadvantage both times because the game was actually fair. that's how i feel about the sjsu/asu game. i wouldnt be happy with my money on either side.


Still would like to hear thoughts on some of these games from ya GG. lets talk some football and have some fun and make some doggone money.
 
I have some time right now so I will answer your question about SJSt.

With a better team than last year (15 returning starters) they went into the first 2 weeks against 2 Pact 10 opponents. In week 1 at Washington, 20 point underdogs and just lost by 6. Week 2 home against stanford and won that game by 1. I'm not saying just because they played 2 Pac 10 teams (and played well) that they will do the same. Arizona St is a lot better team than those 2 were last year...but showing they have some experience on the road in Pac 10 play.
2nd thing that comes to mind is I believe San Jose St has the best defense in the WAC (yeah doesn't mean a whole lot, but still worth something).
I think Tafralis is a good QB who also has decent mobility. Yonus Davis is one of the best RB in the WAC and averaged 6.2 ypc last year.
My main concern is San Jose St receiving core. I am just hoping David Richmond will step up big (one of top juco players last year) 6-4 200 size.
Solid OL
DL and LB real good for SJS... but the secondary has some concerns at the safety position.
Good special teams for them..and Tomey in his 3rd year.

Now to AZ St.


Week 1 for a new coach (Dennis Erickson) of course new systems.
Rudy Carpenter (05 version or the 06 ? ) plays great or not so good..
love the RB's in Torrain and Herring
WR solid despite losing TE Zach Miller
Defensively they lose 6 starters and seem to be about the same... don't see anything big about their defense that jumps out.

Here I just see 2 solid teams and think + 15 is a lot of points for these 2 clubs. Now if Carpenter is on and the safeties of San Jose St struggle, they could put up some points.
At first glance it was one of my favorite plays ..but with more research it went down to just a lean. So I know what you mean by scratching it. I have not decided yet if I will play it yet or not.

I think it will be a pretty high scoring game with both teams moving the ball ... but if AZ St gets their ground game going and Carpenter is throwing like he can, it could be ugly like the Nevada game last year.

I guess if I play it.. I'll just hope the front 7 of San Jose St (which is their strength) can slow down the run enough so AZ St can't just do what they please with the ball.
Still contemplating...
 
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Also a note about San Jose St ... I go to Kansas State.. and I am scared about this game in Week 2. I will be at the game and hope KSU wins it, but it won't be easy. Interested in seeing what that line will be.
 
if i could find that wisconsin -13, i think it would be a play for me, uconn looks solid as well. i just need to find out how pathetic duke is going to look this year.
 
Yeah I have seen you post before... I have been here on and off the past year. Sorry to say, but looks like another average season for KSU....I predict a 7-5 year.
 
Well I am not a big money gambler...Last year was little money, this year is more (but still little money to most people). So I don't get into different books, just one (this year Bookmaker). I also don't usually take season long props, not sure why... just never have. But thanks for pointing it out.
 
BAR and I just got done discussing the TT - SMU game at -10 ... and hit it. To much offense for TT, let's just hope Justin Willis doesn't go crazy.

From my lean list to...
ADD:

Texas Tech -10
 
look for kstate to be about a 9 point favorite to sjsu in week 2 ... obviously depending on injuries and how each team performs.. but it should be near that number if you need a traget to cap against.
 
Now that more O/U numbers are being posted, I would like to discuss a few that I like.

Georgia Tech - Notre Dame UNDER 44.5

GT will not light it up.. and we all know about ND offense and GT defense

Central Michigan - Kansas UNDER 52

Lefevour and Sneed are good.. but less experienced OL and new system. KU defense good at DL, solid at LB, and DB more experienced and have Talib in the secondary

CMU DL ok, LB good, secondary more experienced ... but I don't see KU lighting up the board.


Kansas State - Auburn UNDER 44.5

KSU Freeman inconsistent, still some trouble on OL ... Auburn defense solid as always

With Auburn OL trouble and weaker WR play... don't see them lighting it up either. KSU new into 3-4 however... with DL and LB being ok, and DB solid.

Don't play many O/U but when something jumps out to me, I will usually take notice.
 
Ggems, definitely hope you cash the troy and virginia games...... hehe

amazing how much better you can feel when you have that extra half pt. has anyone done a breakdown on when buying a half point is a value ??

i assume it loses value as the spread increases but would wondered if there was a statistical analysis on this somewhere.

I am against you on the tech game though. i think smu has a decent chance for the straight up win. Bennett is desperate to win this game... he has had it circled for a long long time. if the game falls 11 though , we middle it..... so there is hope that we could both win.

best of luck
 
I just added a total play....

FSU/Clemson UNDER 44.5

I don't play very many totals, but when certain ones catch my eye I will take a closer look at them. I have some more thoughts on this in other threads.
 
GridironGems said:
I just added a total play....

FSU/Clemson UNDER 44.5

I don't play very many totals, but when certain ones catch my eye I will take a closer look at them. I have some more thoughts on this in other threads.
Click to expand...
And you got a great number. I know we have talked about it but I am shocked this went up a point after opening.
 
Added another play earlier...

Cal -6

I've always had a lean towards Cal and I told myself if my day is looking good Saturday then I'll hit it that night. Well with all of the news of Ainge and the X-rays showing a broken pinky, I decided to hit it before it went up.
It's 6.5 at BM right now already.
 
Just bumping my thread for my first play of the season (and only play tonight)

LSU -16.5
There is enough talk about this game so I shouldn't have to explain.

Not touching any of the others...Iowa St defense not good, offense inconsistent, Kent St alright team... would lean Kent St but no play

Utah has a good team...Oregon St with it's rotating QB's ... too close to call... no play

Rutgers and Buffalo be close to that 30 pt line... so no play

The Tulsa ULM game will be interesting...I agree with a lot of people's opinions on backing ULM... but I can easily seeing it be a 3-7 pt win for either side.. so no play.

Just one tonight... LSU -16.5

GL guys
 
LSU -16.5 WIN

Nice start to the year 1-0

No plays for tonight...(Wash a lean but no play)

My thoughts were right about the games last night...should have pulled the Kent St trigger as it was in my leans but oh well.
 
Bumping for today's games...

Georgia Tech +3
Miami Fl -19
Colorado St +3
Troy +24
Virginia -4
Bowling Green +17 (bought .5 pt)
WM v WV OVER 53.5
USC -27 1h
Texas -21.5 1h
Cal -6
 
Georgia Tech +3 .. WIN
Miami Fl -19 .. WIN
Colorado St +3 .. PUSH
Troy +24 .. WIN
Virginia -4 .. LOSS
Bowling Green +17 (bought .5 pt) .. WIN
WM v WV OVER 53.5 .. WIN
USC -27 1h .. LOSS
Texas -21.5 1h .. LOSS
Cal -6 .. WIN
Texas -39 .. LOSS

6-4-1 for the day...
Col St I thought had it when they were up 28-17..but comeback by Colorado and win in OT made it a push.
With the 2 Texas and USC 1h losses...I'm not going to touch big spreads anymore.
Virginia didn't show up to play, enough said.
 
good job gems. virginia had me fooled too. glenn coached groh under the table and the difference between sween and sewell was incredible.
 
Adding one more play to the card to finish off the week

Florida St -3

It went from 3.5 back down to 3 so I decided just to take it.

So remaining games for tomrrow...

Texas Tech -10
FSU -3
FSU UNDER 44.5
 
Taking Clemson 2h at PK

Antone Smith 6 carries -1 yd
Weatherford 7/15 28 yards...

Clemson just keep on wearing down the FSU defense as the FSU offense will continue to struggle.
 
Stupid me.. was just mad at FSU and wanted Clemson to continue I guess ... lol

at least the under hit.. 1-2 there tonight

I tend to do that if I miss a game so badly, I will bet the 2h and sometimes it works out sometimes not. But if I do that.. don't follow me 2h .. ha
 
Should have been better though BAR .. not happy with it. Colorado St still makes me mad and hitting Clemson 2h ... looking for better next week. But still have a juicy profit to start the season.
 
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