My Gems for Week 3

GridironGems

GridironGems

The Mel Kiper of CTG
16-13-1 YTD (this is my posted record, I have some other plays that I don't post as well)

Here is what I got so far from Bookmaker.

Illinois -10
Iowa -14
USC -7
Arizona St -27.5
UCLA -13.5 (thought this one would rise..but it now sits at 12.5 doh)
Texas Tech -27.5
Houston -14

ADD:

BC +7.5
Michigan St -7
BYU -6.5
Ark/Bama UNDER 49
TCU -7 .. LOSS
Ok St/Troy UNDER 63 .. LOSS

Will add leans later...



Leans:

WV -16.5 .. just want a better line as I missed out on the -13.5 by 10 seconds

Florida -8 .. wanting a 7.. but don't think I'll get it.. plus having Andre Caldwell and Brandon James looking like not playing..I don't like it as much anyway

OU -46 ..opened at 51 and hoping it keeps on dropping

Western Michigan +19.5

BYU -6.5

Stanford -7 ... injuries keep piling on for San Jose St..revenge spot for Stanford

LSU -40.5 .. has dropped some, hoping it keeps on dropping
 
Last edited:
Nice job getting Illinois at 10, I missed out on that nice line. Also nice grab on USC from a strictly value standpoint, good eye on both!
 
Thanks CB ... first saw USC at -5.5 but jumped real quick and not able to hit it.. now sits at 9.5

Same with West Virginia at -13.5 I clicked to submit, and then it jumped to 16.5 in literally 10 seconds. Now sits at 15 though.
 
Love the Houston play as well as the Iowa play. I'm an Iowa State fan and have watched their first two losses. It is a rivalry game however I would pound Iowa up to 17 points. If this game gets to 22 points then I might switch to an ISU play. I see a game very similiar to the Syracuse/Iowa game but perhaps a tad closer because of the game being played at Ames.
 
Still considering Illinois at 13 as I think it will rise above 14 eventually. Any thoughts from you guys on whether there is still value at 13?
 
CB - I would still take Illinois at 13 . Cuse is just horrible...5 first downs last week and 103 yards against Iowa. Horrible offensive numbers. Lost by 35 and 30 points first two games. Illini had close game with Mizzou despite Juice Williams getting hurt. They only won by 21 last week and Juice struggled a bit throwing. That is my only concern. But I still see a 17-21 point victory for Illini here.
 
ADD:

BC +7.5

Almost took this right when I saw it at 7.5 a few hours ago. Then it went down to 6.5 so I said no play, and now it's back up to 7.5.
There are some great write-ups already on this game and a few people I trust really like BC here. So I just figure I'd tag along.
A few things that concern me though...
BC beat WF in Week 1 by 10 points on four WF turnovers.
BC beat NC State in Week 2 by 20 points on SEVEN turnovers.
Just because they have won by 10-20 points on 11 turnovers combined...not sure if it's because of BC defense or just horrible throws/handling the ball.
But what if BC can't get that many turnovers against GT...and with GT great defense and Choice (very underrated RB).

I already took BC +7.5 due to value and other cappers I respect...but those are just a couple concerns I had with it.
 
Just added another play...
Michigan St -7
I bought this down...Hunt and BAR are pretty confident on this one so I figured it'd be safe to take the juice. No thoughts on this really, just tailing my boys...look at their threads for write-ups.
 
Leans:

WV -16.5 .. just want a better line as I missed out on the -13.5 by 10 seconds

Florida -8 .. wanting a 7.. but don't think I'll get it.. plus having Andre Caldwell and Brandon James looking like not playing..I don't like it as much anyway

OU -46 ..opened at 51 and hoping it keeps on dropping

Western Michigan +19.5

BYU -6.5

Stanford -7 ... injuries keep piling on for San Jose St..revenge spot for Stanford

LSU -40.5 .. has dropped some, hoping it keeps on dropping

Any thoughts on my leans?
 
wv -16.5 No value in the line but i am notin the business of trying to fade wv anytime soon. they like to cover .

florida -8 .... i lean slightly the other way. tennessee has played to decent opponents but florida has had entire offseason plus 2 weeks to prepare. shrug. plus this many is strong in sec conference game. shrug. prolly wont play this game ... and for a big matchup im not even that interested for some reason.

ou - 46 ... not fading oklahoma either. youll never catch me laying this many points ever even if i think its a value ( probably a flaw in my betting habits ). Stoops has it in for the small schools right now ( mad about boise ? ) and just might run it up again. like i said not a fan of laying 46 ever but if i was .....

western mich +19.5 playing this one. great thoughts on this in dmoney thread

stanford -7 .. thought it would come out lower and then maybe i could play stanford. can they really be 2 scores better ?

LSU -40.5 ... same as the ou game .. if they want to .. they can. but i have a rule to never lay this many.

great job so far this year gems... keep it up
 
Totals just coming out..I hit one of them.

Ark/Bama UNDER 49

I was literally 1 second away from getting UL/UK at 72... I even refreshed every second until it came out and STILL didn't get it.. jumped right to 75, then 76.
 
With you on that under Gems ... though your "refreshing" got you a better number than me. Good luck Brutha !
 
ADD:

Thursday night game will be:

TCU -7

TCU dominated last two games in this series and only team to hold AF under 100 yards rushing last year.

Still unsure on the WV game as it sits at 16.5 ... as of now it's a no play.
 
Ouch lost that UNDER by 1 point...I went against my don't play leans, just play strong plays. It came back and bit me in the ass there.
 
Okie St/Troy

Got lucky last night I guess or maybe I didn't since they turned the ball over so many times in the red zone.
 
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