Southern Mississippi vs. Cincinnati (-11)
I think this is a damn interesting bowl game - sub-plots are all over the place. I'll do my best to address every angle of this match-up.
Motivation/Distractions
This really seems to be the biggest concern for Cincy backers here. The general consensus seems to be - "Cincy is too much for them, but will they come to play?"
Southern Miss
Southern Miss' motivation (besides playing a ranked team) is all about the departure of Jeff Bower as coach. The players respect Fedora, but they obviously want this game and respect Bower for coaching the bowl game. If you search hard enough, you will find all kinds of motivational and inspiring quotes from both the players and Bower. They also have nothing to lose.
Cincinnati
A couple things concern Cincy backers here. First, they were put into a bowl game against a C-USA opponent that they are expected to beat soundly. Next, rumors about Kelly were swirling over the past three weeks or so. Lastly, on the surface, this game doesn't really benefit them. They win - it was expected. They lose - CFB fans get to claim that they were overrated for the next 8 months.
I, for one, am not particularly concerned with these "distractions."
First, Kelly was signed to a five-year contract today:
http://gobearcats.cstv.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/121707aaa.html
Second, Cincy was screwed by this bowl selection. Both USF and UConn received bowls against BCS schools despite the fact that Cincy beat them both. They also finished ahead of USF in the Big East, and they were ahead of them in every poll with the exception of the BCS. I really feel that there were "politics" involved in these bowl selections that I won't get into now.
I think that this will be a motivating factor for Cincy as opposed to a distraction. I am confident in Kelly as a motivator. Cincy did a pretty good job of dispatching teams that they were more talented than this year. (47-10 @Miami OH, 40-14 vs. Marshall, and 52-23 @SDSU with Rutgers on deck come to mind). Obviously, USM is markedly better than these teams, but I think it is a good example of Kelly's motivating abilities.
Schedules
Southern Miss didn't play a particularly difficult schedule (if memory serves, it ranked something like 118th). They were beaten fairly soundly in their two toughest challenges: a 39-19 loss @ Tennessee, and a 38-16 loss @Boise St. Their two most impressive wins came @ East Carolina and @ UTEP.
Cincy's schedule was obviously more difficult as they had to play a Big East schedule. They also beat up on Oregon St. in the non-conference. The most important thing here was Cincy's margin of victory. Seven of Cincinnati's nine wins this year came by more than 11 points. Actually, besides the Rutgers and USF wins, every other win was by at least 20 points. Kelly tends to keep his foot on the gas, so the back door should be closed if Cincy jumps out early.
The teams had only one common opponent this year. Cincy beat Marshall at home 40-14 on September 22nd (as 24 point favorites). USM won @Marshall 33-24 on October 21st (as 3.5 point favorites). To USM's credit, I feel that Marshall progressed as the season dragged on, so I think that the team that USM played was slightly better.
Relevant stats
<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="datahl2">Off</td> <td class="datahl2">Avg</td> <td class="datahl2">Yards</td> <td class="datahl2">Pass</td> <td class="datahl2">Rush</td> <td class="datahl2">Y/R</td> <td class="datahl2">Y/A</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2"> SOMIS
CIN</td> <td class="datacell"> 28.3
36.8</td> <td class="datacell"> 393.9
436.3</td> <td class="datacell"> 193.6
282.2</td> <td class="datacell"> 200.3
154.2</td> <td class="datacell"> 4.6
4.1
</td> <td class="datacell"> 6.7
8.2
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">Def</td> <td class="datahl2">Avg</td> <td class="datahl2">Yards</td> <td class="datahl2">Pass</td> <td class="datahl2">Rush</td> <td class="datahl2">Y/R</td> <td class="datahl2">Y/A</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2"> SOMIS
CIN</td> <td class="datacell"> 23.6
18.6</td> <td class="datacell"> 363.2
370.7</td> <td class="datacell"> 223.6
265.0</td> <td class="datacell"> 139.6
105.7</td> <td class="datacell"> 3.9
3.0
</td> <td class="datacell"> 6.9
6.9</td></tr></tbody></table>
Southern Miss
Offense
<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr> <td class="datahl2"> </td> <td class="datahl2c">Record </td> <td class="datahl2c">Rank </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">Total Yards </td> <td class="datacellc"> 393.9</td> <td class="datacellc"> 63</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">Passing Yards</td> <td class="datacellc"> 193.6</td> <td class="datacellc"> 90</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">Rushing Yards</td> <td class="datacellc"> 200.3</td> <td class="datacellc"> 24</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">Points Scored</td> <td class="datacellc"> 28.3</td> <td class="datacellc"> 59</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">Field Goal %</td> <td class="datacellc"> 80</td> <td class="datacellc"> 36</td></tr></tbody></table>
Defense
<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr> <td class="datahl2"> </td> <td class="datahl2c">Record </td> <td class="datahl2c">Rank </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">Total Yards</td> <td class="datacellc"> 363.2</td> <td class="datacellc"> 47</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">Passing Yards</td> <td class="datacellc"> 223.6</td> <td class="datacellc"> 53</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">Rushing Yards</td> <td class="datacellc"> 139.6</td> <td class="datacellc"> 50</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">Points Allowed</td> <td class="datacellc"> 23.6</td> <td class="datacellc"> 39</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">Field Goal %</td> <td class="datacellc"> 66.7</td> <td class="datacellc"> 33</td></tr></tbody></table>
Southern Miss had the best defense in the C-USA, allowing 23.6 ppg and 363 ypg. On one hand, this is impressive, considering how many high powered offenses populate that conference. On the other hand, the stat doesn't mean much as you would be hard pressed to find another decent defense in the C-USA. Overall, I'd say that USM's defensive unit is a touch above-average.
The offense concentrates on the run with Damien Fletcher. They are not an explosive pass offense, and they really concentrate on the mid-range passing game. Also, I'd venture to say that their offensive numbers are a bit inflated by the fact that the C-USA has very few defensive powerhouses, if any.
Cincinnati
Offense
<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr> <td class="datahl2"> </td> <td class="datahl2c">Record </td> <td class="datahl2c">Rank </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">Total Yards </td> <td class="datacellc"> 436.3</td> <td class="datacellc"> 28</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">Passing Yards</td> <td class="datacellc"> 282.2</td> <td class="datacellc"> 23</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">Rushing Yards</td> <td class="datacellc"> 154.2</td> <td class="datacellc"> 58</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">Points Scored</td> <td class="datacellc"> 36.8</td> <td class="datacellc"> 14</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">Field Goal %</td> <td class="datacellc"> 55.6</td> <td class="datacellc"> 109</td></tr></tbody></table>
Defense
<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr> <td class="datahl2"> </td> <td class="datahl2c">Record </td> <td class="datahl2c">Rank </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">Total Yards</td> <td class="datacellc"> 370.7</td> <td class="datacellc"> 52</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">Passing Yards</td> <td class="datacellc"> 265</td> <td class="datacellc"> 106</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">Rushing Yards</td> <td class="datacellc"> 105.7</td> <td class="datacellc"> 15</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">Points Allowed</td> <td class="datacellc"> 18.6</td> <td class="datacellc"> 11</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">Field Goal %</td> <td class="datacellc"> 77.8</td> <td class="datacellc"> 83</td></tr></tbody></table>
Match-ups
Southern Miss, in my opinion, matches up very poorly against the Cincinnati defense. If you look at Cincy's results this season, they really dominated teams that didn't have a consistent aerial attack. Neither Jeremy Young nor Stephen Reaves has been particularly consistent this season. Young can run, but he only completes about 54% of his throws. He also has a ho-hum 6.99 yards per attempt to go along with 9 TDs and 5 INTs. Reaves only averages 6.23 ypa with 3 TDs and 8 INT.
The biggest problem is that Cincy is 15th in the nation against the run, having shut down the likes of Ray Rice and having contained several other very capable backs this season. This is arguably the best and fastest defense that USM has faced this season, and I find it hard to believe that they will move the ball unless Fletcher finds a way to have a big day.
I think that USM has seen several offenses like Cincy's already, so they should be used to the spread look. However, Cincy presents challenges that SMU, Marshall, and UAB didn't present. They have a young WR core, but they are capable of throwing running bubble screens, slants, posts, etc. I really think that their passing offense is versatile, and Ben Mauk also has the ability to scramble. Cincy should get theirs in this match-up.
Key Injuries
- Cincy should be relatively healthy heading into this game.
- For USM, Martevious Young (3rd string QB) is out for the season, but there is a distinct possibility that WR Chris Johnson could play in this game. He is one of the team's best WRs, but he was injured in the Marshall game and hasn't played since.
Cincinnati 37
Southern Miss 16
If anyone has any other questions about this game, or if there is anything I forgot to cover, let me know.
