MWC Week 9

[JPicks]

2007 Record 30-23-1 (56.6%) +8.91 Units
2008 Record 16-15 -0.03 Units
Week 8 1-1 -0.20 Units (extra .10 units was from betting out of Utah game)


Played two so far this week.

NMU/AFA Under 47
CSU -7 (-20c)
WYO/TCU Under 43


Leans:

Wyoming +32. I doubt I can stomach it.
UNLV +23 and the over.



Simply put New Mexico and Air Force can both slow down the opposing rushing attacks and neither team has even average passing attacks. I expect to see multiple 7 and 8 minute drives in Colorado Springs end in FG attempts.

As for the Rams I'm simply fading the Aztecs. They look as if they've completely given up on the season after watching them give up 6.7 ypc against the Lobos. To many injuries to their defense this year to salvage the season now.

 

[Dmoney416]

BOL this week JPicks. What are you expecting in terms of the UNLV/BYU total?

 

[JPicks]

Thinking in the high 50's. 56 or lower would make me happy. This is BYU's first game this year versus a team with no defense and a good offense so it might be reasonable. The one thing that scares me about playing the over in this game is that both offenses will have to earn their points as turnovers have been scarce with these guys. Of course UNLV's WR's will be open versus the BYU secondary and UNLV hasn't stopped anybody on defense in years.

 

[TroyStacks]

love csu!

 

[RetroVK]

Is long in trouble ?

 

[horses]

Is long in trouble ?

Is that supposed to be funny?

 

[horses]

By the way JPicks; you fading my aztecs weekly is turning into a ATM for you. Think you should kick some money back and help buy out the remainder of Chucky's contract.

 

[scraps@midnight]

good luck j. on the rams with you. i have been at that aztecs fade bank window all year...

 

[broadwayjoe]

unlv does look tasty at that number, but not sure i can back them after what transpired with both teams. devastating loss followed by a tough road game vs embarassing loss looking to rebound (and byu seems to find a way to crush teams they're expected to crush at home).

wyoming i will probably play. tcu is not the type of team that should be laying a number like this, wyoming defense actually matches up well. tcu in a letdown spot, and have no reason to kill a team like wyoming. i'm trying to put myself in a tcu's players' shoes, and i don't really see much of anything from wyoming on film that concerns me to the point that i have the scared adrenaline that we might lose. that's troublesome for a spread like this when you're talking about a mid-major in conference. now they could possibly sleepwalk and score 30+, but one would have to think some sort of garbage or unearned score for wyoming would take place..

gl this week

 

[scraps@midnight]

you guys have major balls playing the cowboys! good luck...really think they could cover that number without much effort and was considering laying it. prolly just walk away seeing your interest in wyo....

 

[Marlo]

J, does Wyoming even score here?

 

[Aztec4Life]

Is long in trouble ?

Is that supposed to be funny?

:36_11_6:

 

[Aztec4Life]

JP - I may join you on CSU. The Aztecs will be in dissaray the rest of the year. 70-7...to New Mexico?! In a wise-guy accent..."Get the f*ck outta here!"

GL this week bro!

:shake:

 

[JPicks]

love csu!

Hard not to right now.

good luck j. on the rams with you. i have been at that aztecs fade bank window all year...

My favorite part of the Aztecs being so bad is that they're actually 2-4 over their last 6 ATS. Probably keeping people from autofading them like the Cowboys have been getting. They haven't been within DD's of the spread in the last 3 and I doubt they'll be w/in 10 here either.

JP - I may join you on CSU. The Aztecs will be in dissaray the rest of the year. 70-7...to New Mexico?! In a wise-guy accent..."Get the f*ck outta here!"


GL this week bro!

:shake:

Rushing margins for their last three games:

-396 yards
-366 yards
-353 yards

How the hell do you win games with those #'s?

 

[JPicks]

Is long in trouble ?

Is long in trouble ?

Is that supposed to be funny?

:36_11_6:

I think the Aztec fans answered that one. The question should be, If the next coach sucks ass will SDSU have a football team?

 

[JPicks]

wyoming i will probably play. tcu is not the type of team that should be laying a number like this, wyoming defense actually matches up well. tcu in a letdown spot, and have no reason to kill a team like wyoming. i'm trying to put myself in a tcu's players' shoes, and i don't really see much of anything from wyoming on film that concerns me to the point that i have the scared adrenaline that we might lose. that's troublesome for a spread like this when you're talking about a mid-major in conference. now they could possibly sleepwalk and score 30+, but one would have to think some sort of garbage or unearned score for wyoming would take place..

gl this week

you guys have major balls playing the cowboys! good luck...really think they could cover that number without much effort and was considering laying it. prolly just walk away seeing your interest in wyo....

J, does Wyoming even score here?

Surprised this game has so much interest. Can Wyoming score? I doubt it. Honestly that would be a great prop question for the game that wouldn't need a ton of + juice to get No action. Honestly I can't bet the Cowboys here. When breaking down the game here you can't think Wyoming has any chance of moving the ball. They won't be able to run the ball on the best run defense in the nation and every time they throw the ball it's picked off. I honestly have no idea how they score unless it's on defense or special teams or possibly a very short field. I think if you like Wyoming you are much safer taking the under as it'll just be a matter of their defense shutting down TCU to get the cover. It won't be because the offense put up 24 on the Frogs.

On the flip side this isn't a game to bet on TCU. Emotional letdown 101. Enough said.

Wyoming hasn't been outgained in yardage this year by more than 150 yards. Not once. NMU outgained them by 149 yards but no other team has even hit the century mark. If they could figure out how to hold on to the ball they could instantly cover a ton of games. Maybe they'll go for the quick punt on first downs this week.

I've really changed my lean to the Under here and I think it cashes. Don't forget the 8 minute drive TCU put on BYU last Thursday to simply run out the clock. It'll take 2 ST or DEF TD's to put this one over 42 I think. Thinking along the line of the WYO/NM game that ended 24-0.

 

[JPicks]

unlv does look tasty at that number, but not sure i can back them after what transpired with both teams. devastating loss followed by a tough road game vs embarassing loss looking to rebound (and byu seems to find a way to crush teams they're expected to crush at home).

gl this week

I wish I could quote all the local radio interviews I've heard of BYU players this week. Meltdown going on in Provo even on the Tuesday following the Thursday loss. It was BCS game or bust for the Cougars and I'm watching the bust part of the show right now. Even today all than any of the players are talking about is TCU and trying to regroup and the fact that they can still salvage their season. It's not very convincing. Lots of blame being thrown around.

As far as the x's and o's of the game it's not the greatest matchup in the world for BYU. They don't do a great job with rushing QB's (WAS, USU, and TCU) and destroy non-spread teams. Clayton is the certainly the type of QB that can get loose in the BYU secondary and pull off a 100 yard rushing day. Last year against the Cougars he came in on mop up duty and was 5 for 5 for 40 yards and 18 yards rushing in the final drive. BYU has also taken great advantage of miscues turning them into quick points all year. Clayton has thrown 2 INT's all year and is doing a phenomenal job of holding onto the ball. BYU will have to earn all their points in this one.

UNLV has the exact same problems on defense as they've been killed all year by rushing QB's (Utah, Nevada, and AFA) while they've matched up better with the more traditional offenses. Remember they lost on a final TD @CSU even though the score ended up being a 13 point victory. They also held Carpenter in check (lousy game plan by Erickson helped) when they upset ASU.

A 13-17 point BYU victory seems like the most reasonable outcome here.

 

[Aztec4Life]

I think the Aztec fans answered that one. The question should be, If the next coach sucks ass will SDSU have a football team?

You just voiced my biggest fear. I'm seriously scared that if the Aztecs don't turn things around in the next few seasons, we'll no longer have a football team. I would be devastated...I can tell you that much.

 

[JPicks]

You just voiced my biggest fear. I'm seriously scared that if the Aztecs don't turn things around in the next few seasons, we'll no longer have a football team. I would be devastated...I can tell you that much.

Ya I was serious. No sarcasm involved. I've ready plenty this year about the Aztec football team losing money for the University and with the state of CA in a budget deficit they surely aren't going to help build them a new stadium. I surely hope it doesn't happen.

 

[broadwayjoe]

thanks jpicks...think i will take a look at the under instead. appreciate the response

 

[SportsNut]

Well was all about fading UNLV here off that tough loss . I just expected BYU to take out there frustration here and throw up 49 points which I dont expect the Rebels to crack 24 . I think BYU 1st H is the play actually . UNLV should come in flat and BYU will be focused at least to start IMO . Tough one now. Like the UNM UNDER though .GL

 

[pags11]

jpicks,

was pretty impressed with UNLV's third WR who has emerged, #19 I believe...watched the Air Force vs. UNLV tape, the kid must have had about 7 catches...if only they had an offensive line and an offensive scheme they could be dangerous...

 

[JPicks]

Well was all about fading UNLV here off that tough loss . I just expected BYU to take out there frustration here and throw up 49 points which I dont expect the Rebels to crack 24 . I think BYU 1st H is the play actually . UNLV should come in flat and BYU will be focused at least to start IMO . Tough one now. Like the UNM UNDER though .GL

jpicks,

was pretty impressed with UNLV's third WR who has emerged, #19 I believe...watched the Air Force vs. UNLV tape, the kid must have had about 7 catches...if only they had an offensive line and an offensive scheme they could be dangerous...

Mike--I think you're naming the maximum effort for BYU with 49. Sure they can probably get there, but I wouldn't count on it. It took 4 USU TO's for them to get to 34, 6 WYO TO's to get 44, and you know all about UCLA where they only had two of their TD drives over 40 yards. Beyond that they haven't had any huge outputs other than against Northern Iowa. UNLV won't give this game away with TO's. As for the Rebels coming off a tough loss, I can 100% assure you that BYU is having twice the hangover off of a loss than the Rebels. Not even the slightest of doubts on that one.

Pags--That's why I really like the Rebels here. They have three of the better WR's in the league and BYU doesn't have the secondary to cover them. BYU also can't blitz much as they'd probably prefer to keep Clayton in the pocket and not running so much. Summers will likely be a non-factor in this one though.

 

[nawlins51]

GL bro.Always looking solid.Tough card this week imo.

 

[SportsNut]

Thanks J. I agree 49 was the max output but kinda felt that 24 was the same for UNLV. As you know I was never high on the BYU offense but I might be that low on the UNLV defense who could have easily allowed 35 to AF at home. Thanks though I will pass and at best reevaluate closer to gametime. Going to do my best to get off games that my valued cappers have a greater feel then a medicore lean I have. Wind up I am wrong probably 60% maybe 2/3 of the times on those and I could name a few off the top of my head like Navy vs AFA with you or Miami Ohio this weekend with tee. Just wasted money that could be applied to something I have a much stronger feel or vision off.....like GaTech this week (sorry VK) :cheers:

 

[pags11]

I definitely understand your line of thinking...GL man...

 

[E.T.G.]

Rushing margins for their last three games:

-396 yards
-366 yards
-353 yards

How the hell do you win games with those #'s?

JPicks, thats basically which sold me on CSU this week. My old HS team could put up a better effort than that. Excellent thread as always

 

[JPicks]

GL bro.Always looking solid.Tough card this week imo.

:shake:

Thanks J. I agree 49 was the max output but kinda felt that 24 was the same for UNLV. As you know I was never high on the BYU offense but I might be that low on the UNLV defense who could have easily allowed 35 to AF at home. Thanks though I will pass and at best reevaluate closer to gametime. Going to do my best to get off games that my valued cappers have a greater feel then a medicore lean I have. Wind up I am wrong probably 60% maybe 2/3 of the times on those and I could name a few off the top of my head like Navy vs AFA with you or Miami Ohio this weekend with tee. Just wasted money that could be applied to something I have a much stronger feel or vision off.....like GaTech this week (sorry VK) :cheers:

Pretty easy to be low on the UNLV defense, but it's honestly against rushing QB's that they get totally exposed. They'll still more than likely give up 31 here, but that's not going to cover the spread. Still liking the Rebels quite a bit as 31-17 feels like the right score to me.

I definitely understand your line of thinking...GL man...

:shake:

JPicks, thats basically which sold me on CSU this week. My old HS team could put up a better effort than that. Excellent thread as always

Your old HS team probably had bigger(better) players on their DLine as well. I really feel bad for SDSU as they're down about 6 DL this year, but I'm not above making money on the situation.

 

[JPicks]

Add

Wyoming/TCU Under 43

 

[broadwayjoe]

^decided on that route as well rather than wyoming..thanks for your help on it

 

[JPicks]

^decided on that route as well rather than wyoming..thanks for your help on it

No problem. Seems like the safe way to bet on Wyoming w/out having to bet on Wyoming.

UNLV is heading towards 24 and with any luck (late movement) a 24' will present itself and I will be on the Rebels. Still possible I bite at 23 as well, but would love the key # of 24.

 

[Dmoney416]

Congrats on the under last night - very good call. Could have went even lower without turnover/special teams assistance.

 

[JPicks]

Taking the Rebels 1st Half. +13 (-05c)

A little afraid of the full game line as the Rebels have what looks like poor coaching as they always get beat by HT adjustments. Also like the physcological affect of BYU's hangover from the TCU loss in the first half. Every game that BYU has dominated this year they have done so early, but all were the result of TO's. UNLV is tied with Florida for the fewest TO's in the nation so I don't feel threatened by short fields.


So far this year 1st half results for UNLV:

(+ and - is for full game line) (Final Result)

Fav'd by 12 W 1st half by 10 (Won by 10)
+21 1H Even (Lost by 21)
+25 1H L by 3 (Won by 3)
-1.5 1H W by 21 (Won by 3)
-3.5 1H L by 8 (Lost by 18)
+1.5 1H Even (Lost by 13)
+3.5 1H L by 3 (Lost by 1)

 

[JPicks]

Congrats on the under last night - very good call. Could have went even lower without turnover/special teams assistance.

Thanks D. Actually had two TO's help me out in that one combined with two 4th and 1 failed attempts inside the 10. I'll take it either way.

 

[SportsNut]

Thanks for the heads up on the NM under as well . I didnt get a chance to even look at the BYU / UNLV game again so looks good for you so far . Brave soul taking an UNDER with Wyoming considering they give the opponent a free TD or so each week . Good Luck .

 

[JPicks]

Posting this at kickoff so nobody can tail it.

Wyoming +32 1/2 unit


Wyoming is my crack addiction. This will be 0-3 if they lose and I promise to get counseling.

 

[JPicks]

30 seconds later TCU scores. :36_11_6: