MWC Week 9

JPicks

Pretty much a regular
17-18-1 -0.94 Units
Last Week 4-5 -.7 Units


Utah -6
NMU/AFA Over 44.5
NMU -4.5

All played at BM.

Quick recaps of week 8.

TCU/Utah
As expected both teams were very evenly matched. Biggest difference was at QB play where Johnson was effective but uspectacular while Dalton was a mess throwing 4 picks and it should have been more. TCU scored a special teams TD with a blocked punt.

WYO/AFA
Game was shadowed by a questionable call. WYO was up 9-7 driving at the AFA 15 yard line when Wynel Seldon had a fumble that was returned 85 yards for a TD. Replays clearly showed the ground causing the fumble and a ref even blew his whistlle, but surprisingly the play withstood an offical replay and the Cowboys never recovered. Cowboys had five turnovers and Coach Glenn threatened to bench the people responsible.

"Five turnovers, is that what we had? That's horrible," Wyoming coach Joe Glenn said. "Get new people in there. You're not going to touch the ball if you're going to turn it over. We'll play other guys."

I doubt he's to serious, but we'll find out this week. Many in Laramie want a QB switch and Ian Hetrick releived Karsten Sween at QB and was very effective going 6 for 8 for 89 yards. Sween was responsible for 3 interceptions.

Air Force continued their ground game on what might be the best run defense in the league (New Mexico might be a tad better) piling up 260 yards on the ground.

Couple of injuries here to be aware of:

Senior tailback Kip McCarthy (left knee contusion), junior nose guard Jared Marvin (left knee contusion) and senior quarterback Shaun Carney (right heel contusion) all will be re-evaluated today.

BYU/E. Washington
Obviously this wasn't much of a game, but BYU didn't look all that great in winning. Mike Hall was 15/30 for 150 yards and a pic. He still hasn't proven to me that he's a threat.

SDSU/NMU
New Mexico had to score 10 unaswered to squeak out a victory in San Diego. Game would have been over had it not been for Kevin O'Connel fumbling at the NM 35 yard line late in the game. Just typical Aztec way of losing a game.

CSU/UNLV
The game I'd rather not think about today. Rebels rolled up 560 yards of offense and still found a way to lose by 25. Five turnovers, two intercepted for touchdowns, was just to much to overcome for the Rebels. Game was all about big plays with 16 going over 20 yards. Neither defense looked good as their was only 9 incompletions all game and each team ran for 5.7 yards a carry. Regular old wild west shootout. Johnson looked great deubuting as the starter for CSU at RB. Hard to qualify how good he was as both teams refused to tackle each other.

And on to Week 9

AFA/NM
I'm confident taking the Lobos with or without the Falcon injuries. Short week only hurts the Falcons with their injury problems. Home game on a Thursday night and the team should be focused after stealing one in San Diego. New Mexico should be able to slow down the ground game as good as anybody in the conference and the Falcons just don't have the secondary to keep up with Marcus Smith and Travis Brown.

UNLV/Wyoming
To much uncertainy at QB for the Cowboys to get involved at this point. Probably revisit it during the week.

Utah/CSU
Utah is rolling right now and I don't think it slows down in Fort Collins. Defense has been good against the run the last few weeks as many of the kids who have come in as injury replacements have really given this defense some life. I don't expect a low scoring affair but I do think the Utah defense will be able to get enough stops in this game to win comfortable by 10+.

BYU/SDSU
Just feel that BYU shouldn't be givng up 14 points on the road to anybody right now. Hall is a turnover machine as he's had 9 turnovers in 4 games on the road this year. Aztecs have two wideouts, Swain and Mougey, who could give the BYU secondary some problems. If the Cougars have a weakness on the defensive side it's definitley in the backfield.
 
Last edited:
JPicks - I was crushed by our loss on Saturday. We played so well the entire game, only to give up the game winning TD with 6 seconds left on the clock. If O'Connell doesn't fumble after that long run into NM territory, we go on a knee and win the game. Only my sorry ass Aztecs could possibly lose that game.
 
dmoney--Yep. I don't think anyone in this conference should be favored by two TDs on the road.

hunt--glad you enjoy it. gl to you this week as well.

webb--Thanks man.

ETG--Wouldn't be to worried about the SDSU game. Letdown spot in between AFA and Wyoming. They'll be ready this week.

Aztec--Not going to lie man. I was definitley cheering for the Aztecs with you in mind. Hopefully they can build off that loss and take down the cougars this weekend.
 
Air Force Injury Updates for Thursday Night:

Etc.

Calhoun said senior tailback Kip McCarthy, who suffered a left knee bruise against Wyoming, will not play Thursday. He said junior nose guard Jared Marvin (left knee bruise) and senior quarterback Shaun Carney (right heel bruise) both likely will play, as will junior defensive end Jake Paulson (high ankle sprain), who did not play against Wyoming.
 
BYU/SDSU
Just feel that BYU shouldn't be givng up 14 points on the road to anybody right now. Hall is a turnover machine as he's had 9 turnovers in 4 games on the road this year. Aztecs have two wideouts, Swain and Mougey, who could give the BYU secondary some problems. If the Cougars have a weakness on the defensive side it's definitley in the backfield.

What's the possibility this game is moved due to the fire?
 
Jpicks -- great number on new mexico as it has moved considerably already. Wondering at what number would you lay off of the lobos in this game ?
 
Was waiting on this thread. The game from the WAC that jumps out at me is Utah. Line seems short. I guess Colly St got a little bit of respect back after last week. I may be ready to fire on that tomorrow.
 
Oh, Utah is definately the best bet in the WAC this week, for sure B.A.R. I'm playing it, for sure. I just like the current line for BYU if this game is moved to a neutral site...
 
Kyle. 7 would be my limit. Not a whole lot of difference between the 4.5 and 6. I think it opened at 4 and that would have been preferred. Air Force is so focused right now on Bowl games and everything but this game while New Mexico needs this game to stay on pace. If the Lobos slow down Hall they win easily.

Aztec/counselor--Defenitely agree with them cancelling the game this weekend. The game will NOT be moved to Provo though. It would be rescheduled for 12/1 at Qualcomm. At least that's what I've been hearing.

B.A.R. -- Not sure about any of the games in the WAC, but I do like the Utes the most in the MWC games. If the Rams will not be given turnover after turnover come Saturday nor will they run for 6 yards a carry. Utah won't overlook them now either as they lost to the Rebels earlier in the year and CSU just rolled there. Utah plays their most complete game of the year this weekend and wins 42-17.

counselor--You don't need to quote B.A.R. on the WAC comments. (shaking my head) And for the record if they moved the game to a neutral site then you'd see a different line and all bets refunded for the +14. Probably end up with a 17.5 on a neutral site and I'd take the Aztecs then as well.
 
I must be missing something, so I'm off the BYU game no matter what, now. I really think Utah rolls this weekend, as well. You'll cash it! GLTY this weekend, JPicks!
 
Thanks Counselor. Sorry about the confusion over the WAC thing. I'm not nearly as sold on the Aztecs being a great play as I am BYU not being a great play. Part of the problem with betting only one conference is that I'm getting bored and I'm choosing more plays that I probably need to. Not really worried about though as I'm not paying the mortgage with the money. Doing the thread more for entertaingment that anything.

As for Utah they are now 4-0 with Johnson at QB with wins @TCU and @Louisville. His affect on the team is felt not only on offense, but on the defensive side. So many less drives that are three and outs allow the defense to regroup and get some rest. Consider these stats:

Utah's rush defense the first 4 games without Johnson (played 1st qtr of OSU and 4th Qtr of UNLV but included here)
184 rushes for 864 yards which is 4.7 ypc

4 games with Johnson
118 rushes for 318 yards and 2.7 ypc

Granted they played some tougher running teams the first four games, but that is 16 more rushing ATTEMPTS a game during the first four games than the last 4. Alot of that has to be attributed to the Utah offense being able to stay on the field for longer. If you look at the time of possesion the Utes have had the ball for 35 minutes a game during the last three games. It's hard to win a game when the other team has the ball for 10 minutes a game more than you.


As far as the SDSU/BYU game there will be an announcement at 5 pm ET today updating the status of the game. I've heard of them moving the game to 12/1 and to Provo on Saturday. Kind of confusing as to what's going on and in all reality it's not that important for anybody in San Diego with all the fires burning.
 
Oh, Jeezez, B.A.R. and I called the MWC the WAC...

B.A.R.'s such an idiot...

I don't blame you man. It's B.A.R.'s east coast bias that really screwed you over here.


Erased the SDSU play as the game has been canceled and added the one total I got in earlier today. Expecting a 31-20 Lobo victory.
 
Another note to tuck away. BYU had a BYE during week 7, played Eastern Washington week 8, and now another bye on week 9. Could see some rust in week 10 when the Cougars host CSU.
 
New Qb In Wyoming

Hetrick takes over for Sween at QB

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=storydetail></TD></TR><TR><TD class=cutline></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
There’s a new midseason sparkplug.

Last year it was Karsten Sween who came to Wyoming’s rescue and led the Cowboys to bowl eligibility, but that role will fall to his former backup for at least one week this season.

UW coach Joe Glenn made it official after Tuesday’s practice at War Memorial Stadium, installing junior Ian Hetrick as the starter for Saturday’s home game with UNLV.

"Ian will start," Glenn said. "We hope that he does a great job and manages the game for us.
"When we protect the ball we win. When we don’t we lose. Ian’s job is to put the ball on the money, protect the ball and put it in the center of the bull’s-eye. We’ve had a little trouble managing the game, and it’s up to Ian to protect the football."

He might not have the football in his hands all game, since Glenn indicated earlier in the day that Sween would still play against the Rebels.

How much the sophomore plays will be up to offensive coordinator Bill Cockhill, but Hetrick received the majority of the reps with the first-team at Tuesday’s practice.

"It feels good working with the first team," Hetrick said. "Those guys up front inspire confidence in what they do and how they play.

"The guys around you just make you want to play better."

Whether it’s better or not on Saturday, it certainly figures to be much more often.
 
Thanks for the update, jpicks.

unlv coach mike sanford had mentioned that he expected Hetrick to get some time for wyoming, and i dont think this comes as a suprise to you or any of us that follow the conference. the total for this game came out very very low and usualy when a coach talks about game management he means to run it a lot. Low total , lots of points to cover, "game management" , new wyoming qb .. sanford also talked at length about protecting the football ( think qb was involved in 5 turnovers last week but am too lazy to go look it up right now so correct that if i am wrong) and that also likely means a more conservative gameplan on the road on offense. unlv plus 11.5 is looking more and more appealing as the week wears on to me. thoughts please jpicks.
 
My problem with the Rebels is they could easily get beat 24-3 in this game. They've only held two teams under 24 points all year and that was the Utah game, no explanation, and Utah State. They're giving up gigantic chunks of yards on the ground and I don't think they're going to slow down the Cowboys even if the Pokes come out and play with one dimension. The Rams ran 49 times last week versus 19 passes and the Rebels had no answer regardless of all the TO's. Bottom line is if you think the Rebels can put 20 points on the board then you'll be safe. Being that they are averaging 21 a game it's pretty much a toss-up. Even with 5 turnovers the Cowboys only gave up 20 to the Falcons @Colorado Springs. I fully expect the Cowboys get 24 points here and I'm really not sure what the Rebels are going to be capable of.
 
thanks jpicks.

yup .... wyoming tough at home , coming off a loss , coach is pissed , unlv just terrible historically on the road, unlv suspect rush defense, there are definitely some factors that concern me here ..of course ...whenever i am considering a double digit dog there are going to be some concerns though hehe.

appreciate you answering my post and will be checking back in through out the week for the latest from our resident mwc whore.
 
Hey JP , i am liking utah and new mexico , i only play money lines unless its an underdog, air force looks to be banged up and nex mexico;s defense looks solid, they skinned by last week but maybe cause they were looking ahead to this game. your thoughts on AF's injuries ,
i am not a fan of laying ml on the road, but utah seems to be putting it all together and Cstate just isnt good. i have read your info above. love the recaps, very valuable info !! thanks.
 
Glad you enjoy them man.

Thoughts on AFA injuries? I don't really think they'll have an affect on the game personally. McCarthy is out, but he's not really the #1 running back anymore. Chad Hall (WR) has been the one tearing it up lately as he's gained nearly 600 yards rushing over the last three games. Of course Hall has been in the hospital with food poising, but I know he traveled with the team and should be good to go come Thursday night.

Air Force senior receiver/running back Chad Hall, who missed practice Tuesday due to flu-like symptoms brought on by food poisoning, traveled with the Falcons to Albuquerque today and is expected to start and play in Thursday night's game against New Mexico, Air Force sports information director Troy Garnhart said.

Hall, who leads the Falcons in rushing yards (750), receiving yards (341) and receptions (32), was taken to the academy hospital Tuesday where he was given fluids and allowed to rest before being released in the early evening. At practice that day, coach Troy Calhoun said he wasn’t sure if Hall would play or even make the trip to New Mexico.


Ollis, Smith and Carney will have no problem picking up the slack for McCarthy as the Falcons use anybody and everybody to run the ball. Carney had (has) a bum ankle from last week, Smith is coming back from being out two weeks with a sprained ankle and Hall has been getting IV's this week. So they have their problems, but I don't think it's going to be a deciding factor in the game. The bigger problem for the Falcons is that they face the #1 team in the conference in run defense (94 yards a game).
 
JPicks - I hear what you're saying about NM solid run defense. But, in AFA's defense, part of the reason the Lobos lead the MWC in rush defense is because they have yet to play the Flyboys. I think NM could very well struggle to stop the triple option, just as Wyoming did last Saturday.

Be honest...would you agree that there is solid ML Dog value at Air Force +210? I'm leaning to pulling the trigger.
 
Aztec -- Sure there is some value there as the Falcons are just as likely to win SU as they are to cover. I don't see a single digit New Mexico victory.

My argument for the Lobos and their run defense is to look at the Falcon/BYU game. The Lobos and Cougars both run the 3-3-5 defense and if a team has good athletes it can be problamatic for a wishbone offense. It hasn't been a problem recently for the Falcons though as the Lobos haven't had any luck stopping anybody the last couple of years.

I'd also say that Wyoming was "effective" against the Falcons run attack last weekend. If you take out the two longest runs the Falcons had (Carney for 48, and Hall for 38) then they would have only averaged 3.1 yards a carry. I know that you're going to tell me that those two runs are part of the game and I agree. They may cost you two touchdowns in reality, but my point is that you can't sustain drives when you're averaging 3.1 a carry. The Falcons goal tonight should be to keep the Lobos off the field and I don't think they're going to be able to pick up the 4 yards a carry to get that done.

I've also been wrong more than I've been right this year, but it's fun to talk about it.
 
Counselor: I wish you would post in every thread. I am in love with that chick. Who is she?

Those things are AWESOME...

Rexy: Joe asked too in the General Discussion thread...Some thread started about CSAH jizzing on a dead girl or something...check it out...

Nice to see you're still alive BTW....haven't seen you all week...
 
JPicks is a MWC WHORE! And we love him for it!

:smiley_acbe:

Thanks for the feedback bro. Regardless of which way I go, I really do respect your insight/opinion on any MWC team. GL this week brotha!
 
Add a 32 yard field goal miss from a guy who's hit 18 in a row to my list of bad beats this year. Guess that's the fun of gambling.

I thought New Mexico did a good job against the run tonight, but they simply couldn't convert any of the turnovers into solid points. Also was impressed with Portiere at QB, but the NM receivers were just plain awful tonight.

The most amazing stat of the night is that both teams combined to run the ball 97 times and still score 75 points. You won't see that very often.
 
Also thanks for the comments guys. I'm certainly not doing it for the money as my record indicates. :)
 
I saw that FG "attempt". UNM winning by 6 would have been bad, bad news for some people.

I came sooooooooo close to playing the +7 just before kickoff and pray for the middle. About the time they lined up to kick the field goal I was kicking myself for not playing it. It would have been great. As is I get nothing and I'll just have to be happy about it.
 
Adding:

WYO/UNLV U 22 -105 1st Half

Wyo games have averaging 14 points during the 1st half this year while scoring 22 during the 2nd half.

Meanwhile UNLV games have been averaging 16 points during the 1st half while racking up 30 points during the 2nd half in conference games. Over the season the numbers are 17 in 1st half and 28 during the 2nd half.

If the 1st half hits I'll be playing the 2nd half over regardless of anything else. Probably be smart to play the +6 on the Rebels in the 1st half as well, but I want to bite off more than I can chew with this 1st half theory.
 
Well that worked for today. Have to look for that opportunity in the coming weeks.

Getting a bit greedy and going for a little more. Worst case I break even, which I'm accustomed to, and best case I have a 5-1 week.

UTAH -5

So I have a unit on -6 and now one on -5.
 
Back
Top