MWC Week 8

[JPicks]

2007 Record 30-23-1 (56.6%) +8.91 Units
2008 Record 15-14 +0.17 Units
Week 7 2-2 -0.20 Units


What can I say I'm a staple of consistency. Consistently breaking even that is. Yet to have the big 4 or 5-0 week, but it's coming. That said I'll probably go 3-3 this week.

Week 8 Plays


AFA/UNLV Over 54'
Utah -23/CSU +22
BYU/TCU Over 44'



Week 7 Recaps

Utah/Wyoming
Well I was on the under and I'm pretty happy with the decision, but not so much with the results. Let me go back to last week where I lost the Navy/AFA under bet as I was screwed over by special teams play:

Navy/AFA
What a cluster this one was. ST TD's and short fields were the motto of this game. I posted this in my thread on Saturday and it's really all that needs to be said about the game.

Navy has scored 2 TD's on blocked punts.
AFA has a TD drive of 7 yards.
Navy with a TD drive of 10 yards.
Navy with a FG on a drive of 3 yards.

31 points off of 20 yards of offense. 53 points scored so far in this game and both teams have COMBINED for 500 yards of offense.


Well it happened again. 490 yards of offense and 47 points scored. Utah got a muffed punt for a TD, blocked punt for a TD, a INT for a TD, and two drives for 22 yards that resulted in two FG's. 27 points on 22 yards. So I feel good about my decisions, but not catching the breaks right now.

As far as the game overall goes, Utah did just enough to get the victory and move on. Very similar game plan to what they used against Weber State. Utah attempted 20 passes, but only two of those 20 were thrown farther than 10 yards down the field. Wyoming looks worse and worse every week. I'm to the point now where I'm sure they've given up on Glenn and the season. It's a little late in the game to auto-fade them as they've lost 15 straight ATS, but it still may be worth a shot. Their only game left this year that is a possible win is against SDSU.

TCU/CSU

Not terribly upset with playing TCU in this one, but also not the best of spots to lay 14 points on the road. The Frogs defense continued to stuff the running game of the opposition in this one only allowing the Rams 11 yards of rushing offense on 28 carries (0.4ypc). They've now allowed 145 yards rushing on the YEAR over 169 carries for a 0.85 ypc average. That's unreal. Given better weather I think the Frogs win this game going away, but the conditions led to QB Marcus Jackson fumbling snap after snap and TCU played a very lethargic game. CSU has every chance in the world to win this game as Kubiak relieved Farris at QB and hit WR after WR down the field only to have them drop the ball. While the Frog's run defense looks very formidable the secondary has some major concerns and that may be a big problem against BYU come Thursday. Oklahoma exposed them and BYU has the aerial attack to do the same. CSU on the other hand can probably take a bit of confidence away from this game even though they literally dropped the ball with a chance to pull the big upset. Had they won this game Fairchild would have been viewed as a savior to the program. It'll be really interesting to see how they react coming off this game. Are they excited they had a chance to beat one of the big 3 in the conference or do they hang their heads that they had a chance and blew it? After the last second win over UNLV and last minute loss to TCU I think they're set up for a letdown this week.

NMU/BYU

Certainly not BYU's best effort this year as the game was actually closer than the 21-3 final would indicate. New Mexico came in with a game plan to run the ball 50 times and that's exactly what they did. While they averaged 4.2 ypc in the 1st half, BYU made some great adjustments in the 2nd half and shut down the running game completely. It's a great theory to run the ball against the Cougars to keep the ball out of their hands but their greatest strength is rush defense.

Gruner played a pretty good game (66.7% completion rate) at QB for the Lobos, but wasn't allowed to do enough imo once BYU went with 8 in the box to stop the runnnig game. The QB #'s would look even better had NM not taken a very questionable penalty call with seven minutes to go in the 4th on a TD pass to pull within 14-10. Their RT Bell was called with a block in the back on a screen play where the defender fell down on his own to avoid the block. That pushed the Lobos back to the 24 yard line and then Tate Smith (QB) missed a wide open WR in the end zone that would have brought the Lobos within 4. Long then made the mistake of going for it on 4th and 22 rather than kicking a FG and going down 7. They failed and BYU got the ball and drove 70+ yards down the field for a TD to put the game away.

BYU on the other hand played a pretty clean game, no TO's and 4 penalties, but their offense certainly didn't show up. Austin Collie had 160 yards receiving but the running game is looking anything but explosive. The Cougars didn't have a single run over 10 yards (on 27 carries) and it's looking as though the Cougars will be passing all night come Thursday.

AFA/SDSU

Happy to say that this one went as scripted. The amount of injuries that SDSU has suffered on the DL caught up with them here. The Falcons rushed the ball 77 times for 401 yards (5.2 ypc) and 3 TD's. FR QB Tim Jefferson looks to have taken over the starting job from Shea Smith and he is a burner. Asher Clark (FR) has also taken over the starting TB spot and both guys make the Falcons a much more explosive team. Team speed has gone up a couple of notches with those guys in there. The box score pretty much tells the story in this one as it was simply an AFA ground attack that chewed up tons of clock and the Aztecs couldn't respond in the 2nd half w/out starting QB Ryan Lindley, who was out with a shoulder problem. Backup Drew Westling averaged about 5 yards a completion and threw 2 pics. I even read that the Sky Show sucked so it must have been a bad night all around in San Diego.

 

[JPicks]

Week 8 Previews (Projected Lines)

BYU @ TCU (BYU -3' O/U 48)

First off let's take a look at the recent history.

2005: BYU -3 O/U 46'

BYU hosted TCU in the 1st game between the two schools as conference foes. Both teams combined for 88 points in regulation and 1039 yards of offense. BYU went for and missed a 2pt conversion on their opening drive of OT and TCU scored and kicked the extra point for the game winner as the Frogs won 51-50. BYU led this game by 16 points in the 3rd quarter before blowing their lead. BYU fans complained of poor officiating for weeks after the game.

2006: TCU -7 O/U 47 on a Thursday night game.

TCU came into the game ranked #17 in the country and off a bye week while BYU was 2-2 and played Utah State the previous Saturday. The teams combined for 830 yards of offense and 48 points. Difference was turnovers as TCU gave up the ball twice while BYU. BYU openly talked about this being a revenge game after blowing a 16 point lead the previous year:

"That was in the back of our minds," Harline said. "We just got up and said, we're not letting this one get away."

While TCU did a great job of stopping the running attack by BYU they did little to slow down John Beck and the passing game as the Cougars had 7 receivers get 30 yards or more through the air. The Cougars won 31-17 to break TCU's winning streak at 13 games.

2007 BYU -7' O/U 46' on a Thursday night game

TCU traveled to Provo after playing New Mexico the previous Saturday while BYU had Colorado State at home the previous Saturday. Teams combined for 770 yards of offense and 49 points. Neither team had any luck running the ball (3.3 ypc for each team) while BYU was able to throw the ball around and make plays a bit more than the Frogs. BYU held on for a 27-22 victory. TCU had plenty of chances to win this one as they were stopped 3 times on 4th down in the 2nd half, gave BYU the ball on their own 3 yard line to start the 3rd quarter, had to settle for 3 FG's on drives, and had the ball with under two minutes to go and were driving before giving up b2b sacks. All in all a close game with some points left off the board.

2008 Thursday Night game

Kind of looks like the same story with new characters to me. Both teams should do a great job at shutting down the opponents running game and it'll be a matter of who can make more plays with the passing game and special teams play. TCU is 1-5 all time playing on Thursday night games and it's in their heads a bit.

The status of Andy Dalton is still unknown and for me to play TCU I'd have to have him in there. Marcus Jackson makes to many mistakes (five fumbled snaps and a pic vs CSU) for me to back a team led by him against an explosive team like BYU. Jackson has had 5 TO's in the last three games and giving BYU a short field is playing with dynamite. In TCU's first 4 games with Dalton behind center the team had 1 TO and won by an average of 35 points.

My other concern backing TCU is their secondary. Beyond the two dropped TD passes by CSU yesterday Kory Sperry (leagues best TE imo) got 104 yards receiving. Not being able to cover TE's is a major concern when facing BYU has David Pitta might be 1a when it comes to TE's in the league. He's already grabbed 40 catches for 542 yards this year and burned TCU last year for 90 yards. Explosive wideouts, Manuel Johnson??, have also hurt the Frogs and Austin Collie will probably have another big game (110 yards last year). No doubt though that this is the best defense the Cougars will have seen so far this year, but I'm pretty sure they have enough weapons to put 28 points + on the board. One big question mark is the availability of Michael Reed (WR) for BYU. He's a big part of the WR corp and keeps automatic double teams off of Pitta and Collie, but was hurt for the Wyoming and Utah State games. He played yesterday but took a pretty big lick over the middle and had to helped off the field with what looked like a back injury. I'm guessing it's not serious as he didn't look to bad. He is a big piece of this offense that you'll never hear about.

So after writing like SportsNut for 45 minutes I don't really have much of a lean right now. I'd like to play the over probably as much as anything based upon the previous years matchups and the fact that both teams will have to throw the ball a lot. Both teams low scoring affairs last weekend may lower the total a bit which would be nice. If Dalton plays I'd lean on TCU getting a FG or more. Pretty much on the fence right now though.



I'll have the other games up later this afternoon.

 

[JPicks]

Getting annoyed at how close the lines are coming out to my predictions. Seems like there was alot more room in the beginning of the year than now. The one line that was more than a point off was the AFA line which came out at 5' and I can certainly understand the #. UNLV has a terrible time defending the spread and mobile QB's and that's exactly what AFA will bring to the game. I certainly would have been on the Falcons under 3, but now I have to really think about it.

Bookmaker openers in ().

303 byu -2' (2)
304 tcu

341 colorado state
342 utah -23 (23)

365 san diego state
366 new mexico -13' (14')

391 air force (5')
392 unlv PK (toughest one for me. could see AFA being up to a 3 point fav as well)


CSU/UTAH

First off this is only CSU's second road game of the year. In their first attempt on the road this year they lost by 35 to Cal in a game that they had error after error in. The Rams are off off two emotion games. The first against UNLV had them winning in the final minute in what was likely their best victory up to date this season. Last week against TCU they had a chance with under two minutes left to drive down and score the winning TD against the Frogs only to throw a pic. The Rams shuttled two QB's into the lineup in that game as Billy Farris struggled early and was replaced by FR Klint Kubiak. Farris still owns the starting job according to Fairchild, but the leash is getting shorter as the weeks go on. Meanwhile the rushing attack that finally got going against the Rebels was once again de-railed vs. the Frogs. While Utah doesn't have the rush defense that TCU has they are quite formidable. They're ranked 8th in the country against the rush while giving up only 2.6 ypc and 82 yards a game. I personally think Utah's defense matches up perfectly with the Rams. The Utes secondary is a notch above TCU's and will not give up the same downfield passes that the Rams dropped last week. 20 points in this game for the Rams would have to be considered a great success while I think they'll end up closer to 13 barring any short fields or ST TD's.

On the flip side of the ball Utah's offense has not found the right gears yet. They only produced 242 yards of offense against the Cowboys, granted it was with 40 mph winds, and 337 yards against OSU. They still put up 71 points, but they are leaving a ton of points on the board with stalled drives and penalties. Brian Johnson is not the same QB he was post knee surgery and looks very hesitant in the pocket. The Utes are relying on ST's and the defense to continually put them in good positions to succeed. I could also just be being a pessimist as the Utes put up 440 yards + of offense in the four games prior to OSU. CSU defense has been a strength this year as they've only given up 400 yards to Houston this year. Their secondary still has some big question marks (giving up a 62% completion rate) and it's just a matter of Johnson getting comfortable in the pocket and finding his guys. The running game is a bit of a toss up as the Utes come in averaging 3.8 ypc while the Rams give up 4.3 ypc. Utah should have enough success thru the air that the running game won't be leaned on until the 2nd half.

Special teams play is always an advantage to Utah. Their kickoff guy leads the nation in touchbacks with 34 (2nd place guy has 20) which forces teams to drive 80 yards after every score. Punting is a wash as both punters average 43.5 yards per punt. Louise Sakoda is the ultimate weapon for the Utes on FG's as he's hit 15 of 17 on the year and at least one of those two was blocked. CSU meanwhile has a freshman kicker who hasn't kicked a FG in the last three games. If Utah is to cover the 23 points they better hope Sakoda is only attempting extra points though.

I like Utah to silence many of it's critics (local critics mainly) and put on a show come Saturday. The weather is going to be perfect (73 degrees and sunny) and the opponenet is coming off of two emotional games while playing only their 2nd road game of the year. Strong lean to the Utes at 23 and if it moves towards 24 I'll grab it. Well as I write this the line has gone to 23' at Pinny so I'm going to jump on it now while it's still 23 at Bookmaker.

Utah -23 1 Unit

 

[hoopsstar22]

Do you have anything on Air Force/ UNLV, or am I rushing you?

I noticed you projected it at pk or AFA-3, earlier today. It was pushed from 5.5 down to 4 in favor of UNLV, and the numbers I have for the game are a TON different from that.

Did UNLV recruit a new run D, to replace the #109 ranked unit they send out there, or what?

Thanks man.

 

[JPicks]

No rushing at all. I think I have a pretty good feel for the game but the line surprised me a bit. I was ready to pounce on the Academy under 3 or even 4, but then the like came out pretty high. Now somebody with some deep pockets is pushing it down to where it should have opened. In all fairness to whoever is pushing it down I understand the desire to bet the Rebels as 5' point home dogs. In my opinion this is a bad matchup for the Rebels. They haven't shown the ability to defend any mobile QB's this year and with the new QB Jefferson taking over the reins for the Rebels this probably becomes the most mobile QB that UNLV will see all year. The Rebels have given up 1130 yards of offense over their last two games and the D is beginning to look awfully similar to last years version. Their secondary is a mess as they've used the bye week to start an open competition for starting spots and they're still dealing with injuries:


Both Travis Dixon and Chris Jones -- who entered camp on the quarterback depth chart -- were switched to safety in camp, moves that potentially added some depth. Dixon made his debut at safety last Saturday at CSU. Terrance Lee, Daryl Forte and Lorenzo Bursey Jr. have come up big at times, but missed tackles have been a sore spot as of late.

As for the cornerback posts, Quinton Pointer and Geoffery Howard both have dealt with the injury bug. Pointer has had a tough time returning to his form of a year ago since dislocating his elbow on the second day of camp this fall, while Howard left Saturday's game with a sprained toe.

If the line doesn't drop down to 3 I"ll wait it out and consider the over (anything over 54). If I can't get either # then I'll have an interesting decision I suppose. I respect UNLV's offense to much to give them more than a FG at home. Their defense I have no respect for.

 

[hoopsstar22]

Very nice sir. Thanks.

I'm pretty sure it was one group that pushed the line down, and I'll keep an eye on it.

Some numbers I use had this at about 10 point too low, so that's what threw me. Then with the fact that AFA has owned the series entirely, and all the games end in blowouts, I just was sitting here scratching my head. I decided it would be better to ask you, because I knew the line would only get better for me in time.

 

[nashional kato]

gl p. think the utah pick is a good one. stay away from tcu/byu. lay low crip.

 

[JPicks]

Very nice sir. Thanks.

I'm pretty sure it was one group that pushed the line down, and I'll keep an eye on it.

Some numbers I use had this at about 10 point too low, so that's what threw me. Then with the fact that AFA has owned the series entirely, and all the games end in blowouts, I just was sitting here scratching my head. I decided it would be better to ask you, because I knew the line would only get better for me in time.

Looks like the line has settled at 4' at most books and 4 at Pinny. UNLV is 13-8 ATS as home dogs under Sanford which concerns me a bit, but most of those covers have been as DD dogs and losing by a TD or so. The other concern is the AFA playing next Thursday @home in what will be their only nationally televised game. I still don't see the Rebels keeping the Falcons under 450 yards rushing so I'm leaning towards the over here more than anything else.

UNLV is off of a bye, but that hasn't been a great thing under Sanford:

'05 Lost to BYU 55-14 as 12' point dogs.
'06 Lost to Nevada 31-3 as 3 point dogs.
'07 Lost to SDSU 38-30 as 3 point favorites.

gl p. think the utah pick is a good one. stay away from tcu/byu. lay low crip.

You need to quit watching Gangland on the discovery channel kid.

Dalton Injury Update:

Injury update
TCU quarterback Andy Dalton (right knee) practiced Sunday night. Gary Patterson said he'll see how Dalton progresses this week to determine whether he'll start — or even play — but "right now he's looking better."

 

[Aztec4Life]

You need to quit watching Gangland on the discovery channel kid.

You asshole...I was drinking water when I read this, and I laughed so hard it came right back up and out of my nose!

:tiphat:

 

[JPicks]

You asshole...I was drinking water when I read this, and I laughed so hard it came right back up and out of my nose!

:tiphat:

haha. Nashional kato is a good friend of mine and we were watching gangland "SALT LAKE CITY" the other night on discovery channel. Needless to say there have been way to many crips and bloods comments this week being thrown around.


Utah #1?

 

[nashional kato]

crip 4 life

 

[JPicks]

crip 4 life

STFU

 

[nawlins51]

Good thread buddy. GL this weekend

 

[pags11]

GL jpicks, I enjoy reading your stuff...

 

[JPicks]

Thanks guys.

AFA/UNLV Over 54'

 

[JPicks]

Was thinking about playing the Aztecs all week as this is a big sandwich game for the Lobos, but it looks like they're switching to a 3-4 defense this week. With only 2-3 days to practice the new D there is no way I have the balls to make that bet. I still think NM stumbles a bit here in a game sandwiched between BYU and a Thursday night showdown with AFA.

Whether it proves workable or culminates in complete collapse, it might be the only card San Diego State has left to play.

With its defense wracked by injury and redshirts being burned as though the only fuel left for the fire, coach Chuck Long said yesterday that the team's best bet might be switching to a 3-4 defense.
The Aztecs, who have lost seven players for the season, five of them defensive linemen, head into Saturday's game at New Mexico ranked last in rushing defense among the nation's 119 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) teams.

Having ceded more than 450 total yards in five of its six games, including 473 in last week's 35-10 loss to Air Force, SDSU (1-5, 0-2 Mountain West) is allowing an average of 29.7 points while scoring 18.7. It is giving up an average of 437.2 yards per game, a figure exceeded by only 10 FBS teams.

“It's not something you necessarily want to be doing at this point in the season, but it makes sense in terms of where we are with our defensive linemen,” said Long, who out of necessity has been forced to burn the redshirts of true freshmen Jerome Long, J.J. Autele and Henry Simon. “The trouble is, because we've also had injuries to some of our linebackers, you could have some linebacker positions where you're only one deep.

“So, you have to look at bringing safeties into the mix to back up some of those linebacker spots and, obviously, most (of our safeties) have never played that position. And when you only have two or three days to practice it (before Saturday's game), that's not an easy situation. It gets down to numbers. You're robbing Peter to pay Paul.”

The latest quandary facing the Aztecs is the status of starting defensive end B.J. Williams, who suffered a concussion against Air Force. If Williams is unable to play, and SDSU opts to employ a 3-4 against New Mexico, its defensive front likely would feature Autele and sophomore Eric Ikonne at the ends with senior Siaosi Fifita playing the tackle spot. Sophomore Miles Burris, typically the backup to Andrew Preston at weakside linebacker, would become the team's fourth linebacker.

New Mexico, which has beaten the Aztecs seven straight times, features the third-best rushing offense in the Mountain West. The Lobos have two running backs ranked among the top 10 in the league, including senior tailback Rodney Ferguson, the league's leading rusher at 101.5 yards per game.

“Regardless of what defense it is, we've just got to play better,” said senior linebacker Russell Allen. “That's the truth of it. Whether we're running a 3-4 or a 4-3, whatever it may be, we need to improve. That's the only way any of this is going to get better.”

Lindley update

Starting quarterback Ryan Lindley, who missed the Air Force game after suffering an AC sprain and a slight separation of his throwing shoulder a week earlier, threw again during yesterday's workout.
As was the case last week, Long said a decision on whether Lindley will play against New Mexico could be a game-time decision. Long's biggest concern is whether the redshirt freshman has sufficient arm strength to throw deep.

“I feel good,” said Lindley, who resumed throwing Sunday. “It's a big turnaround from where I was a week ago. I feel fine as far as mobility goes. It's really more about being able to put zip on the ball and putting effort into it.

“After throwing on Sunday, I felt a ton better. If it comes down to it, I feel like I could go out there and make the throws if I had to.”

Motivational tool?

A year ago, New Mexico beat the Aztecs 20-17 when Ferguson scored on a 6-yard run with 15 seconds left. The touchdown came after cornerback Aaron Moore was whistled for a highly controversial interference penalty.
“That was a game we definitely could have won,” Allen said. “When you play as hard as we did and you think you're in position to win the game and something like that happens, it's really tough. That game is still in our memory. I think we're going to use that to rally ourselves a little this week.”

No player on SDSU's roster has ever beaten the Lobos.

Scraping bottom

If the Aztecs have any intention of sneaking a peek at this week's NCAA statistics, they might want to do so with one eye closed.
In addition to ranking last in the country in rushing defense, the Aztecs also rank last in rushing offense (47.3 ypg) and time of possession (23:42).

Overall, SDSU ranks 100th or worse in 11 categories, including third-down conversion percentage (117th); first downs (tied 114th); opponents' first downs (113th); total offense (112th); and total defense (109th).

 

[JPicks]

BYU/TCU Over 44'

 

[broadwayjoe]

tough break on that over jpicks...i would have never thought this doesn't go over if tcu gets to 30+...what a dud game; i was expecting much more out of this game...like for it to be very close haha

know you're prob in a bad mood, but i'm thinking about possible ramifications of this game...in spots i already thought were going to be favorable

unlv vs tcu -- and new mexico vs utah for that matter (unrelated)
utah vs tcu (really thinking i'm going to like this one now)

byu at utah (especially if utah beats tcu convincingly, which i expect)

tcu vs air force (matchup well and if the above takes place we should see some value appear again; expect them to finish the year strong)

thoughts? i know it's a lot of extrapolating and lots of things can change in the meantime, but these are certainly the spots i will be keeping my eye on, and wanted your input...thanks man

should be one helluva MWC finish as expected

 

[RetroVK]

TCU is for real

 

[JPicks]

tough break on that over jpicks...i would have never thought this doesn't go over if tcu gets to 30+...what a dud game; i was expecting much more out of this game...like for it to be very close haha

know you're prob in a bad mood, but i'm thinking about possible ramifications of this game...in spots i already thought were going to be favorable

unlv vs tcu -- and new mexico vs utah for that matter (unrelated)
utah vs tcu (really thinking i'm going to like this one now)

byu at utah (especially if utah beats tcu convincingly, which i expect)

tcu vs air force (matchup well and if the above takes place we should see some value appear again; expect them to finish the year strong)

thoughts? i know it's a lot of extrapolating and lots of things can change in the meantime, but these are certainly the spots i will be keeping my eye on, and wanted your input...thanks man

should be one helluva MWC finish as expected

Not in a bad mood at all. Make a bet and then all emotion is removed. Felt I made a great bet and I feel no different now. 3 BYU turnovers inside the TCU 30 killed me. I'd make the bet again tomorrow.

UNLV is definitely a favorable spot vs TCU as TCU has to travel again to Utah for a Thursday night game the following Thursday. UNLV isn't a team that is dependent on the run and has two great wideouts. Certainly a game that one would like to get DD's for the home team.

New Mexico vs. Utah has been circled on my calender since the schedule came out. Utah ALWAYS struggles vs NM. Utah will be off of a bye while NM plays the previous Thursday. Hard not to like NM especially if they are also given DD's at home.

Utah vs TCU Before this game even kicked off tonight I felt that TCU had a better chance to beat Utah than BYU. Reasons? Utah has been horrible this year at protecting Johnson and they are much more dependent on their running game compared to BYU. Johnson hasn't shown the ability to throw the ball downfield with consistency this year and that's the only way to really expose TCU. I will say that Utah's team speed is much, much greater than BYU's. Not to the level of TCU, but still exceeding BYU's speed by quite a bit. TCU has a horrible schedule spot here though as they have to travel to Nevada, back to Texas, and then to Utah for a Thursday night game. That's brutal.

TCU vs AFA Worst matchup in the league for AFA. While the Falcons can own the Aztecs of the league they just can't even begin to run on the Frogs. Best part of this game is that the Falcons beat TCU last year in OT. Second best part is this game @TCU follows a home game for the Falcons against BYU. As long as the Falcons have secured a bowl game I'll be unloading on TCU, especially if they lose to Utah before their bye. TCU won the first two games, as MWC foes, by an average of 31 points before last years victory.

Utah vs BYU ?? Always a close game. Taking the dog is always your best bet. This game brings out to much emotion in me so I have to say that I don't have the desire to talk much about it tonight.

All great spots you have highlighted.

 

[JPicks]

TCU is for real

No doubt. Team speed kicked the crap out of the Cougars all over the field tonight. I don't think they could have played a better game. Props to Patterson for getting Kerley the ball out of the QB spot tonight as BYU didn't have the athletes to tackle him.

 

[RetroVK]

No doubt. Team speed kicked the crap out of the Cougars all over the field tonight. I don't think they could have played a better game. Props to Patterson for getting Kerley the ball out of the QB spot tonight as BYU didn't have the athletes to tackle him.

He broke the linebackers ankles on the TD run.

Not going to lie , tcu winning didn't surprise me but TCU dominating did.

From the outset of the game , BYU looked strangely flat to me. As if they knew what was coming.

I thought they abandoned run a little too quickly ... not that i thought they could do it successfully but after they abandoned it , the frogs just pinned their ears back and went after Hall.

In order for cougars to complete a pass , Hall really had to throw the ball almost prior to the break as the frogs just sat back and used their speed to break on the routes.

patterson is a good football coach. So is mendenhall but patterson is a guy that is good to back with money in my opinion.

To the naked eye .... TCU might very well have the BEST defense in the nation. Maybe not , but if it isn't , it's close.

 

[broadwayjoe]

thanks for the responses jpicks...good to see that we're on the same page for the most part. regarding the tcu/utah game, i simply think utah is a significantly better all around team than tcu or byu. i know they have oline issues, and that definitely scares me in backing them because of what we saw tonight with the pressure on hall. however, like you touched on, i don't think we're going to see tcu playing faster like they did tonight when they're on the road against a team that has team speed. and it's going to be a lot different to go to utah just as it was a lot different for byu to go to fort worth. just to pick your brain again, assuming both teams take care of business next week vs wyoming and colorado st by 20 or so, and then the next week both teams struggle somewhat on the road, but still win by a td or so, and there are no new injuries...where would you think this line comes out?

 

[broadwayjoe]

To the naked eye .... TCU might very well have the BEST defense in the nation. Maybe not , but if it isn't , it's close.

agree, and if not...certainly the best rush defense...stats aren't skewed because of conference, etc...watching them stop the run is a thing of beauty

 

[JPicks]

thanks for the responses jpicks...good to see that we're on the same page for the most part. regarding the tcu/utah game, i simply think utah is a significantly better all around team than tcu or byu. i know they have oline issues, and that definitely scares me in backing them because of what we saw tonight with the pressure on hall. however, like you touched on, i don't think we're going to see tcu playing faster like they did tonight when they're on the road against a team that has team speed. and it's going to be a lot different to go to utah just as it was a lot different for byu to go to fort worth. just to pick your brain again, assuming both teams take care of business next week vs wyoming and colorado st by 20 or so, and then the next week both teams struggle somewhat on the road, but still win by a td or so, and there are no new injuries...where would you think this line comes out?

Well even if I'm picking at 50% for the year my line projections have been top notch. :36_11_6:

Utah will be favored in the 4' to 6' range. Nothing higher than 6', but I could see a 3 i suppose. Nice guess by me as I've covered all the #'s. Utah -4' would be my best guess. The books will shade this wanting TCU money from what I can figure. It's a tough scheduling spot for the Frogs flying back and forth across the country. This is the game that you'll probably hear Patterson bitching about the Thursday night games the most as they play a 8 pm (local time in Fort Worth) game on a Saturday in Vegas and then have to fly back west to Utah for a Thursday night game. They'll get into Texas about 3 or 4 am on Sunday and will have to practice that day (film study I guess) in order to get 4 walk thru's to prepare for Utah. Don't forget that Utah has the most "gimmicky" offense in the league. I was alot more nervous about this game before I started writing about it than I am now. This is a brutal turnaround and I'm sure the books won't miss it and probably offer a favorable TCU line.

 

[broadwayjoe]

that's good to hear; because as long as you don't see it getting to a td i will certainly be on utah barring drastic injuries, etc. if it's 4 or below, i'll likely pound the hell out of it. i was thinking it'd be released at 5.5 if everything goes close to planned for the next two weeks, so we're on the same page. we'll have plenty of time to talk about this game in upcoming weeks

 

[Aztec4Life]

Damnit bro! Wish you were on the Flyboys...that way I could finally man-up and pull the trigger!

:cheers:

 

[JPicks]

Damnit bro! Wish you were on the Flyboys...that way I could finally man-up and pull the trigger!

I wish BroadwayJoe would give me a w/up on why he likes UNLV. wink*wink* Joe. I still lean pretty heavily toward the Falcons but think the total is just a bit more solid. AFA having a Thursday night game next week on National TV is a big lookahead while UNLV coming off of a bye is always good for the team playing the Rebels.

 

[Marlo]

Good Luck this week Picks

 

[broadwayjoe]

I wish BroadwayJoe would give me a w/up on why he likes UNLV. wink*wink* Joe. I still lean pretty heavily toward the Falcons but think the total is just a bit more solid. AFA having a Thursday night game next week on National TV is a big lookahead while UNLV coming off of a bye is always good for the team playing the Rebels.

haha i'll have it up tonight during the game. basically think this will be a high scoring game because both offenses match up pretty well. i like the much more balanced offense at home getting points. also AF has been playing a little over what i had rated them coming in, and unlv off two losses, which i think gives us value. huge huge game for unlv on a macro level...seeing as they are likely going to lose both of the next two games, they could be in a position to drop four, and even 5 in a row, which would cause the wheels to come off of the season when a month ago they beat a ranked opponent on the road. AF can lose this game and still make a bowl. like getting a few points with even teams when the home dog has its back up against the wall, and is likely to score some points.

 

[JPicks]

CSU +22. Well now I'm really taking a chance on screwing myself here. Have Utah -23 and CSU +22. Might go 0-1 on the whole operation. Either way I'd rather lose the vig here than the whole bet and I think that's exactly what would have happened had I kept it. Way to many distractions going on with Utah right now including BYU/TCU hangover and coach Whittingham making travel plans to be in Bristol with ESPN during the bye week. I've seen this before and it usually ends up in a Utah loss. The under should be a solid play as I don't see the Rams scoring much either way in this one.