MWC Week 4 Thoughts (Ugly Card IMO)

[JPicks]

Season 9-5-1. +3.6 Units
Last week 3-3.


Air Force/BYU

Reasons to play Air Force

To stop Air Force every player must follow a specific assignment. The Cougars were fooled over and over by the Tulsa offense. The mis-direction had them left wondering where the ball was usually ending with a 60 yard touchdown pass. The normally grounded Air Force attack threw the ball 30 times last week against TCU and I expect alot of the same against BYU. Problem is they don't throw it deep, only one pass over 18 yards, and that is where the weakness seemed to be for the Cougars. If TCU gave up 5.9 ypc (without Carney sacks) or 3.9 ypc (without sacks and 71 yard run) then I'm more than positive they'll be able to move the ball against BYU. Their is no better DL in the league than the Horned Frogs. On offense for BYU they are without Vakapuna (broken hand). Not a huge loss though as he had lost the starting job to Unga, but still a loss of depth. Austin Collie also having some issues with a sprained ankle, but should be able to go. I'd instantly fade BYU if he somehow wasn't able to go. BYU essentially said they are done kicking field goals this week as they're PK missed two extra points last week.

Reasons to play BYU

They're at home. They own Air Force. Max Hall won't have nearly the problem with turnovers at home that he does on the road. It's truthfully alot easier for me to explain why I'd bet Air Force here as they are the underdog. TCU collected 409 yards, 20 first downs and 14 plays of 10 yards or more, including six in the fourth quarter and this BYU team is much more explosive than TCU. Jim Ollis has moved into the starting TB position for the Falcons and he was seen limpling twice to the sidelines last week against TCU. Also Kip McCarthy, the starting TB out of fall camp, is still out along with an offensive tackle (Holder) and outside linebacker (Madrid).

CSU/Houston

I know nothing about Houston and to be honest I'm not up to date as much as I should be on CSU. Pass

Wyoming/Ohio

Cowboys favored on the road? Pass. I know nothing about Ohio and I'm proud of it.

SMU/TCU

Horned Frogs will not have Aaron Brown again according to what I've been reading. I will not bet on them until he is back. Bottom line. Problem with this line is that SMU can not stop anybody and if the Frogs put up 31 (which would be a low #) I'm not sure SMU can score more than ten against them. Pass

SDSU and NM both play Big Sky teams. Pass

Utah/UNLV

Well if I could tell you guys which Utah team is the real one I wouldn't have lost money last weekend betting against the home guys. This game is a big fucking pass for myself. As long as Grady is QB'ing I'm keeping my money in my pocket. That is where the interesting part comes into play. Brian Johnson is practicing this week and there is a chance he'll play this coming weekend. I personally don't expect it but I do expect him to play against Utah State the following weekend. Utah played 7 true freshman last weekend and they are largely where the credit is due for the blowout victory over the Bruins. They had nothing to lose at home playing against a top 10 team and it won't be the same traveling down the road to Vegas. The Rebels are coming off of a couple of tough games against ranked opponents. Not sure of the trends, but I'd love to see how them as far as how a team does being underdogs three straight weeks at home. Bottom line: Rebles struggled versus Utah State and as much as they'd like to win this game (Ex-Utah OC Standford is the HC) I don't know if they have the weapons to do it. PASS


Shitty, shitty card. Only one play and that's the BYU/AirForce Under 54 . May add later depending on some injuries. I really feel like I've wasted the last hour of my life with this stupid post. I apologize for anybody that actually read the whole thing.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

 

[counselor]

Apology accepted...

You don't think BYU/AFA will be a 38-24-type game?

BTW: You killed my Wyoming -4 for me now, too, damnit!

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Great thread once again bro...I'm already on that Under, so I'm glad to see you on it..

As far as AFA, they didn't look overly productive in throwing the ball and most of those came in the last 20 mins when they were down two scores...I don't think that's how they are going to beat the cougs if they were to do it..

I'm a heavy lean to BYU as well..

 

[JPicks]

Apology accepted...

You don't think BYU/AFA will be a 38-24-type game?

BTW: You killed my Wyoming -4 for me now, too, damnit!

No I'm definitely expecting something below there. BYU coach Mendenhall has been getting some fire this week for not utilizing the ground game more in the Tulsa loss. I expect to see them actually run the ball more this week than pass. It might be a first in BYU history. Either way more running equals more time off the clock. With Collie potentially out or even less than 100% it takes away from BYU's explosive offense. Don't forget that up to last weeks waxing by Tulsa's offensive this BYU defense had a bit of a reputation for being pretty good. The Falcons cannot take advantage of BYU's secondary in any similar fashion to the Tulsa. They don't throw the long ball and what passing they do (which I think will be a decent amount) will be under 15 yards. Their entire goal will be to keep the ball away from the Cougars. They haven't played a game this year where they didn't win the time of possession. So bottom line is I don't see two teams that are going to be controlling the clock running up 55 points. Even in Air Forces' two conference wins they only scored 20 points in each game. I see more of a 31-17 game and that's on the high end.

Don't let me sway you off of Wyoming. It didn't work last week (swaying you) so I don't know why it should this week. :36_11_6: I really don't know jack about Ohio and I'm not going to pretend I do.

 

[JPicks]

Great thread once again bro...I'm already on that Under, so I'm glad to see you on it..

As far as AFA, they didn't look overly productive in throwing the ball and most of those came in the last 20 mins when they were down two scores...I don't think that's how they are going to beat the cougs if they were to do it..

I'm a heavy lean to BYU as well..

Thanks Jump. Hopefully you kill it again this week.

I really didn't intend for my post to imply that the Falcons were going to air it and throw 40 yard bombs down the middle on the Cougars. They don't have the personnel to do it and if they did they wouldn't be as lethal as what Tulsa has. Lots of misdirection and dumping it off to a tight end on the opposite side of the field for an eight yard gain. Just enough to keep the chains and clock moving but never enough to score touchdowns. If I was to play a side, depending on Colllie's status, it would be the Cougars. Good value based on last weeks results.

 

[RetroVK]

Just has to be some value on the BYU side.... I mean they were -7.5 in a bad spot on the road against Tulsa and now in a good spot at home are only -9.5 ( when i bet them ) to air force who looked nothing short of atrocious in their victory over tcu. confusing .... Air force could not defend tcu cruddy pass attack when the froggies had NO running attack. Byu will be able to run some. Dunno ... maybe I am getting burned again by this air force team ..... if so ... atleast it is a service academy, have to respect these kids.

 

[Aztec4Life]

Great thread, JPicks...and great points on Air Force/BYU!

GL this week!

:cheers:

 

[JPicks]

Kyle -- You're still pissed about last Thursday aren't you? Just admit it. It'll make the recovering time shorter. I agree with you. You and Jump are certainly making me think about it more. The one thing BYU got burned on last week (deep passing game) should be a non factor based on opponent this week. I really need to know Collie's status before moving forward.

Aztec--Thanks man. And just for the record I love your signature. He was a beast.

 

[Aztec4Life]

JPicks - That he was bro! :cheers:

By the way...are you leaning to any side in particular on AFA/BYU game? Or still a pass there as well?

 

[JPicks]

By the way...are you leaning to any side in particular on AFA/BYU game? Or still a pass there as well?

Jump and Kyle have me leaning BYU. I made up my mind last Sunday that it was BYU or nothing to begin with. Their would be zero value to take Air Force at this point. Not saying it won't win, but after last weeks results the value is certainly in BYU's favor. If Collie plays, he's probably now, I might add BYU but more than anything I'm just taking the week off. Looking towards next week when conference games kick into high gear.

 

[E.T.G.]

I wish TCU could get their ass kicked this week too bad SMU sucks.

JPicks, I never saw that ass beating your team put on UCLA coming, good game. Great season.

What would be the max you take BYU at. I am still a little pissed at them but if TCU can throw on AF, why can't BYU @ home off a loss in their 1st conference game. Sounds like a big win in Provo?

 

[JPicks]

ETG. My decision on the game honestly has nothing to do with what BYU can do against Air Forces defense. I'm sure they're going to get their points it's more of a question of what Air Force is going to put up. I will not play BYU over -13 and I'd prefer a -10 if I was to bite. I certainlly won't be surprised in a big win in Provo as the defense is pissed and the Falcons just don't play well there.

 

[JPicks]

A big heads up for anybody thinking about playing the UTAH/UNLV game.

It looks like Brian Johnson will probably see some game time. No confirmation as coach Whittingham won't give out the starter until gametime, but people that have seen him in practice said they'd be surprised if he didn't play. Here's some quotes from the coach and a reporter who asked Brian about Saturday.

1280: What is BJ's status?

Whit: Based on his arm strength he is probably 85%. He is close. He threw very well yesterday, but he is taking fewer reps then he would need to for a game situation. We are right on track to that 3-5 week return.

1280: Is an 85% Brian Johson better than a 100% Grady?

Whit: That is what we are deciding. We aren't tipping our hand and won't decide until gametime.



Quarterback Brian Johnson looked strong throwing the ball downfield. I asked him what the chances are of him staying off the field Saturday. "Slim," he said.



EDIT:

Add Toledo +3.5

 

[Aztec4Life]

Cool. Thanks for the info and feedback bro!

:smiley_acbe:

 

[RetroVK]

This is what i love about your mwc thread. thanks jpicks.

 

[JPicks]

Thanks fellas.

Going to add a couple of things now as I'm leaving for a long weekend to Boston. Looking forward to conference football getting started next weekend.

First off I'd play BYU given the chance at -9, but I'm going to pass on 11.

Utah -7 (-114) Johnson should play a bit, Darrell Mack looked good running last week, and the defensive switches the Utes made have changed the entire chemistry of the defense. UNLV struggled to beat Utah State and they are still playing with a redshirt freshman at QB. They'd be alot better if Hinds was playing, but after the last two weeks I expect them to be beat up physically and mentally. Rebels have lost 11 straight to the Utes and don't see it changing this weekend.

UCLA/WSU Under 47.5

Looks like Olsen is going to be out and I don't consider that a bad thing. Guy was brutal last week. Cowan has ran the team before and look at the totals from his three starts. 32 (OSU), 36(ASU), 22(USC). UCLA defense was emberassed last week and without the starting QB I expect them to step up in a big way. If Washington was only able to put 24 on BSU and 14 on OSU at home I don't expect anything in the 20's @UCLA ecspecially without Olsen turnover the ball.