JPicks
Pretty much a regular
28-21-1 +8.11 Units
Last Week 4-0 +6.4 Units
(Just for the record I counted both TCU plays as 1, both Utah plays as 1, didn't count the ND/AFA middle in record but did in Units, and counted the SDSU ATS and ML plays seperate. Hope everyone's ok with that recordkeeping)
Week 12 Plays
Utah -14
NMU +15
TCU/UNLV U23' First Half.
Week 11 Recaps
TCU/BYU
Kind of a hard game to reflect on and come to any great conclusions. Both teams played pretty much as expected with the one exception being BYU's 3rd down conversion %. They were 13-20 for the game and that's probably the single biggest reason they won the game. On the other hand as a TCU backer I'll say I was fortunate to get a W. Really wasn't a right or wrong side to this game from a gambling perspective, but I'm glad I was on the side that was at the window at the end of the game.
TCU did a great job against Unga and the BYU running game holding Unga to 64 yards (4.0 ypc) and the BYU team to 112 (3.3 ypc) While the run defense was great the pass defense wasn't as BYU had no problems finding opening recievers all night as they constantly dumped off the ball and picked up 7 yards per completion.
BYU proved yet again that they have one of the better defenses in the conference as they only allowed TCU 350 yards of offense with 94 of those coming late in the 4th on one drive with the Cougars playing a soft zone defense. I wouldn't say the TCU offense was horrible, but they certainly couldn't come thru in any clutch situations as the Cougars forced 3 FG's on drives inside red zone. They were also 4/12 on 3rd down and 0/3 on 4th down attempts.
In the end the ability of Matt Hall and BYU to keep the chains moving on 3rd down was the difference. No real surprises and the thing I'm most interested in is if Dalton starts losing some of his PT to Jackson as Jackson looked great during his limited time at QB for the Frogs.
AFA/ND
I'll admit now that I still haven't even seen a highlight of this game so it'll be more of a box score recap. On 2nd thought I'll think I'll skip this recap other than saying ND is a really bad football team. They did a decent job against the running game of AFA and Claussen looked like he found a rythm late in the game. Nobody needs my ND recap as there are a 1000 ND message boards you can go read about. For AFA I wonder when Chad Hall is going to hit a wall. Converted WR (well he still is, but....) had never carried more than about 5 times in a game prior to the UNLV game this year (6 games ago) and he's had 164 carries over those 6 games. Look at the ypc for evidence he might be getting a bit tired:
18/169/9.4ypc UNLV
31/256/8.3ypc CSU
28/167/6.0ypc WYO
21/97/4.6ypc NMU
34/275/8.1ypc Army
32/142/4.4ypc ND
Pretty obvious trendline here minus the Army game. And if you have seen Army play then I shouldn't have to explain that one. Just an fyi for this weeks game as the Falcons are 5-1 since Hall has become the #1 running option.
CSU/NMU
A great example of how sharp these lines seem to be this year. I knew this was a great spot for CSU as NMU hasn't looked great lately and the Rams haven't given up on their season as most would expect. Instead they drop a -9.5 when I figured they would definitely make the Rams DD dogs. Waited (hoped) I'd get 10 and it never came. Never made a play on the Rams and they play a great game and cover. Ok enough of my personal stories and on to the game:
Well CSU found another way to lose a game. First and 10 from their own 16 with a 1:06 left and a tie game they managed to lose 10 yards and punt from their own 6 yard line. A 37 yard punt by the Rams followed by an 18 yard return put the Lobos at CSU's 25. With three seconds left NM kicker John Sullivan went out and booted a 43 yarder for a last second victory.
Other than the last drive their wasn't much else to say about this game. CSU outgained the Lobos 399-331 and won the turnover battle 1-0.
UTAH/WYOMING
About as uneven of a matchup as you'll have. The Utes held the Cowboys to 122 yards of offense with 55 of those coming in the 4th. The Cowboys went into halftime down 40-0 and 49 yards of offense. They couldn't run it (1.2ypc) and they couldn't throw it (13/32 for 85 yards). They lost the turnover battle 5 to 1 and were out of the game 4 minutes in when they went for it on 4th down at Utah's 30. Utah immediately went 28 yards on a trick play for a TD and the game was essentially over.
On the other side of the matchup the Utes had 505 yards of offense and pretty much did what they wanted when they wanted. I will say that regardless of any box score you'll read about the game, the Cowboys have a pretty good run defense. When they were beat it was via trick plays or WR sweeps. Their wasn't much room to run up the middle.
Game had a bit of controversery as the Utes were not pleased with Coach Glenn guranteeing a vicotry of the Utes at a student assembly. They took their displeasure out on the Cowboys by calling for fake punts when they were up 26-0 in the 3rd, onside kicking up 43-0, along with an array of trickery that left the Cowboys with only one response:
SDSU/UNLV
Well I've got to say that fate finally has found SDSU and that's a good thing. An interception and a kickoff returned for TD's helped proppel the Aztecs to their second straight victory. They got outgained 482 yards to 318, lost the time of possesion battle 37/23, and gave up 30 points in the 2nd half. All in a day's victory.
The Aztecs went up 21-0 with 10 minutes to go in the 2nd quarter in what looked to be the beginning of a blowout. The Rebels defense stepped up from there and only gave up 100 yards of offense to the Aztecs for the remainder of the game. The Rebels came out in the 2nd half and chipped away at the lead until it was 21-17 seconds into the 4th and things weren't looking good for the Aztecs. All 400 fan UNLV fans were into the game and momentum had definitely shifted. Mekell Wesley returned the Rebel kickoff 89 yards and things were defenitely shifting back in the Aztecs favor. It'd take a 55 yard pic 6 for the Aztecs to finally put it away with a minute and change left in the game.
For the Rebels it was another day of a great offensive output (yards) and no victory. It was the 4th time this season they've had 450 yards + and lost. They've averaged 22 points in those losses. I'm not sure how that's even possible, but they do it. Frank Summers was amazing on the ground (187 yards/7.2 ypc) and Travis Dixon played great (13/22 185yards 3TDS) coming in for an injured Omar Clayton (broken hand). As a team the Rebels rushed for a season high 275 yards (5.6 ypc) which was certainly a surprise. On the defenseive side they played well enough to win giving up 320 yards of offfense (90 in the 2nd half) but gave up to many big plays.
I've read alot about the Rebels "quitting" on the season, but nothing about their 2nd half comeback gives me the impression that they've given up. The Aztecs just had years of bad luck that finally got cashed in on Saturday. Whether they'll have more of that @AFA will be seen.
Last Week 4-0 +6.4 Units
(Just for the record I counted both TCU plays as 1, both Utah plays as 1, didn't count the ND/AFA middle in record but did in Units, and counted the SDSU ATS and ML plays seperate. Hope everyone's ok with that recordkeeping)
Week 12 Plays
Utah -14
NMU +15
TCU/UNLV U23' First Half.
Week 11 Recaps
TCU/BYU
Kind of a hard game to reflect on and come to any great conclusions. Both teams played pretty much as expected with the one exception being BYU's 3rd down conversion %. They were 13-20 for the game and that's probably the single biggest reason they won the game. On the other hand as a TCU backer I'll say I was fortunate to get a W. Really wasn't a right or wrong side to this game from a gambling perspective, but I'm glad I was on the side that was at the window at the end of the game.
TCU did a great job against Unga and the BYU running game holding Unga to 64 yards (4.0 ypc) and the BYU team to 112 (3.3 ypc) While the run defense was great the pass defense wasn't as BYU had no problems finding opening recievers all night as they constantly dumped off the ball and picked up 7 yards per completion.
BYU proved yet again that they have one of the better defenses in the conference as they only allowed TCU 350 yards of offense with 94 of those coming late in the 4th on one drive with the Cougars playing a soft zone defense. I wouldn't say the TCU offense was horrible, but they certainly couldn't come thru in any clutch situations as the Cougars forced 3 FG's on drives inside red zone. They were also 4/12 on 3rd down and 0/3 on 4th down attempts.
In the end the ability of Matt Hall and BYU to keep the chains moving on 3rd down was the difference. No real surprises and the thing I'm most interested in is if Dalton starts losing some of his PT to Jackson as Jackson looked great during his limited time at QB for the Frogs.
AFA/ND
I'll admit now that I still haven't even seen a highlight of this game so it'll be more of a box score recap. On 2nd thought I'll think I'll skip this recap other than saying ND is a really bad football team. They did a decent job against the running game of AFA and Claussen looked like he found a rythm late in the game. Nobody needs my ND recap as there are a 1000 ND message boards you can go read about. For AFA I wonder when Chad Hall is going to hit a wall. Converted WR (well he still is, but....) had never carried more than about 5 times in a game prior to the UNLV game this year (6 games ago) and he's had 164 carries over those 6 games. Look at the ypc for evidence he might be getting a bit tired:
18/169/9.4ypc UNLV
31/256/8.3ypc CSU
28/167/6.0ypc WYO
21/97/4.6ypc NMU
34/275/8.1ypc Army
32/142/4.4ypc ND
Pretty obvious trendline here minus the Army game. And if you have seen Army play then I shouldn't have to explain that one. Just an fyi for this weeks game as the Falcons are 5-1 since Hall has become the #1 running option.
CSU/NMU
A great example of how sharp these lines seem to be this year. I knew this was a great spot for CSU as NMU hasn't looked great lately and the Rams haven't given up on their season as most would expect. Instead they drop a -9.5 when I figured they would definitely make the Rams DD dogs. Waited (hoped) I'd get 10 and it never came. Never made a play on the Rams and they play a great game and cover. Ok enough of my personal stories and on to the game:
Well CSU found another way to lose a game. First and 10 from their own 16 with a 1:06 left and a tie game they managed to lose 10 yards and punt from their own 6 yard line. A 37 yard punt by the Rams followed by an 18 yard return put the Lobos at CSU's 25. With three seconds left NM kicker John Sullivan went out and booted a 43 yarder for a last second victory.
Other than the last drive their wasn't much else to say about this game. CSU outgained the Lobos 399-331 and won the turnover battle 1-0.
UTAH/WYOMING
About as uneven of a matchup as you'll have. The Utes held the Cowboys to 122 yards of offense with 55 of those coming in the 4th. The Cowboys went into halftime down 40-0 and 49 yards of offense. They couldn't run it (1.2ypc) and they couldn't throw it (13/32 for 85 yards). They lost the turnover battle 5 to 1 and were out of the game 4 minutes in when they went for it on 4th down at Utah's 30. Utah immediately went 28 yards on a trick play for a TD and the game was essentially over.
On the other side of the matchup the Utes had 505 yards of offense and pretty much did what they wanted when they wanted. I will say that regardless of any box score you'll read about the game, the Cowboys have a pretty good run defense. When they were beat it was via trick plays or WR sweeps. Their wasn't much room to run up the middle.
Game had a bit of controversery as the Utes were not pleased with Coach Glenn guranteeing a vicotry of the Utes at a student assembly. They took their displeasure out on the Cowboys by calling for fake punts when they were up 26-0 in the 3rd, onside kicking up 43-0, along with an array of trickery that left the Cowboys with only one response:
SDSU/UNLV
Well I've got to say that fate finally has found SDSU and that's a good thing. An interception and a kickoff returned for TD's helped proppel the Aztecs to their second straight victory. They got outgained 482 yards to 318, lost the time of possesion battle 37/23, and gave up 30 points in the 2nd half. All in a day's victory.
The Aztecs went up 21-0 with 10 minutes to go in the 2nd quarter in what looked to be the beginning of a blowout. The Rebels defense stepped up from there and only gave up 100 yards of offense to the Aztecs for the remainder of the game. The Rebels came out in the 2nd half and chipped away at the lead until it was 21-17 seconds into the 4th and things weren't looking good for the Aztecs. All 400 fan UNLV fans were into the game and momentum had definitely shifted. Mekell Wesley returned the Rebel kickoff 89 yards and things were defenitely shifting back in the Aztecs favor. It'd take a 55 yard pic 6 for the Aztecs to finally put it away with a minute and change left in the game.
For the Rebels it was another day of a great offensive output (yards) and no victory. It was the 4th time this season they've had 450 yards + and lost. They've averaged 22 points in those losses. I'm not sure how that's even possible, but they do it. Frank Summers was amazing on the ground (187 yards/7.2 ypc) and Travis Dixon played great (13/22 185yards 3TDS) coming in for an injured Omar Clayton (broken hand). As a team the Rebels rushed for a season high 275 yards (5.6 ypc) which was certainly a surprise. On the defenseive side they played well enough to win giving up 320 yards of offfense (90 in the 2nd half) but gave up to many big plays.
I've read alot about the Rebels "quitting" on the season, but nothing about their 2nd half comeback gives me the impression that they've given up. The Aztecs just had years of bad luck that finally got cashed in on Saturday. Whether they'll have more of that @AFA will be seen.
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