MWC Week 11

JPicks

JPicks

Pretty much a regular
24-21-1 +1.71 Units
Last Week 2-2 -1.30 Units

Week 11 Plays
TCU +7
TCU +7' for another Unit
AFA -2'
ND +4 Looking for the middle.
Utah -14
Utah -13' for another unit
SDSU +3
SDSU ML +150

Week 10 Recaps

BYU 35 CSU 16

Story of the game from a gambling perspective is still probably the pic 6 that BYU backup QB Brenden Gaskins threw with four minutes to go in the game. It was one of two turnovers for the Cougars but was clearly the difference between covering the 21 or not. CSU blew multiple shots early in the game to take the lead or stay close. They had three drives inside BYU's 10 yard line in the first half and only scored 3 points. Coach Lubbick was not pleased as he's usually quite reserved but clearly wasn't so after the game.

"I might be foolish but I thought we'd come in and play well; I really thought we could play with these guys," Lubick said. "I get so darned angry at the players because I think we're a better team than we've shown. That's the stuff that frustrates you."

Lubick even admitted to berating his players with a swear word or two at halftime after they seemingly outplayed BYU only to trail 21-3.

CSU added another RB to the depth chart this week as Mike Myers looks to be getting more carries moving forward.

"I would say that we've got to put him in," Hammerschmidt said. "We need to find some energy, and he gives us that. I think we need to look for sparks from different guys."

The only reason I include that is the fact that the Rams have three viable RB's to carry the ball next week. I can see the writing on the wall. The Rams will run the ball 75% of their offensive plays next week as Hanie hasn't been able to do anything thru the air. I'll go more in depth in my preview of the NMU/CSU game.

As for the Cougars they did a great job thru the air in the victory passing for 355 yards constantly taking advantage of blown coverage by the Rams. Four passing plays accounted for 180 yards of the passing stats. They surprisingly had some problems running the ball as they had 106 yards on 38 carries (2.8 ypc). They seemed to have come out of their bye trying to establish a passing game as they've been a one dimensional running team for the past few weeks.

"I think it just proves that we are not one-dimensional offensively," Hall said. "We can run, we can pass it all over the field and I think that is big for us. It gives us a lot of confidence that whatever play is called and whenever we have the ball it will be in good hands and good things will happen."

AFA 30 Army 10

There is always a game come Sunday that I'd rather not re-visit and this is the one. I predicted last week that the Falcons would be in the high 300's in rushing yards and they cleared that with 437 yards rushing and 6.5 ypc. They were also 9/12 for 108 yards passing yet only scored 30 points. I'll blame their lack of points on a crooked official. The Falcons had been penalizied 32 times over their previous 9 games but somehow found a way to have 8 penalties against Army. I'd say at least 6 of those penalties were inside Army's 30 yard line when the Falcons were driving. You just don't have 6.5 yards a carry and have to kick 3 field goals. If anybody wants to know anything about Army let me tell you they are awful. I haven't seen such an inept offensive team all year.

TCU 37 NMU 0

Another tough beat as the Lobos refused to score. It's not so much that they refused as it was TCU just being dominate.

"They dominated," Long said. "They dominated the line of scrimmage, and any time [they] dominate the line of scrimmage on offense and defense, you get your butt kicked."

The Lobos' first play of the game went for 22 yards. Their final 59 gained 97 yards. The second-ranked offense in the Mountain West Conference had 119 yards and six first downs.

Joseph Turner has taken over the starting RB spot from Aaron Brown and had a nice game running for 115 yards on 28 carries. Both teams pulled their starters for the 4th quarter which killed any chances of the over hitting. Lobos had 28 yards rushing on 26 carries.

SDSU 27 Wyoming 24

Big victory and a great show of character here for the Aztecs. I didn't see the game so Aztec4life could probably give a better recap than I could. SDSU was down 21-0 early in the 2nd quarter and had memorable comeback capped by Keven O'Connel 27 yard TD pass with a minute left. Like I said I didn't see it and can only write about what I read here. From the boxscore:

Wyoming's offense is still horrible. They had 250 yards of offense with 157 of that coming in the first quarter where they took a 14-0 lead. They did a good job of only turning the ball over once. Defenses seem to be focusing on the run knowing that Sween can't beat them thru the air. WYO ran 47 times for 91 yards.

SDSU did what I thought they would do and just abonded running the ball from the beginning. They ran the ball 24 times while passing 44 times however 14 of those rushes were by O'Connel himself in what could have been scrambles for all I know. In the end the Aztecs were destined to win this game after all that has happened in SD over the last two weeks. I'm clueless how they react off the weekend @UNLV.

Utah, UNLV had BYEs.

I'll have my previews for week 11 up by this evening.
 
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There was definately something fishy about that AFA game, JP. Strange calls at really inopportune times. Army is so horrible. And that NMU team should be banned from the MWC for not being able to even muster a garbage td somewhere late in the game.

That SDSU game was something to follow. They must have played their guts out to overcome that early defeict. Nice win for them.

Hope things turn around for you this week. Good luck with whatever you play.
 
Thanks couns.

Well the lines that came out completely blow donkey dick.

BYU -6.5 but quickly went to 7. Not sure where it goes from here, but I won't be surprised, being a Thursday game, if it goes to 7.5.

AFA -2 over ND. Leaning AFA. Writeup later.

NMU -9.5 over CSU. Seriously thought I'd see something north of 10.

UTAH -13.5 over Wyoming. Right where I would have put it. Don't think Wyoming has any offense to stay in this game.

UNLV -2.5 over SDSU. I have no opinion other than SDSU building off last weeks victory.
 
Really like AFA. Will consider Utah and TCU.

If you bet UNM, I'm going to have to commit you.
 
ADD:

Utah -14
AFA -2.5

Will hopefully have the writeups today with the slow NBA day. Should have grabbed the Utes at -13.5 but I didn't. Worried about both AFA and Utah going up another .5 point so grabbed them now.
 
HMMM I like Notre Dame here. Cannot wait for the writeup.
Like the TCU pick. 7 seems like too many.
This week will be a real test for Glenn to get his kids ready to play a pretty damn good utah team on the road after a devastating loss.

Actually considering going to the unlv game, any info you can pass along on that game would be helpful.
gl this week jpicks
 
Vegas - I like ND as well. Can't believe I am actually considering playing them
 
I could be on the other side of alot of ND bets this week. I'm not even convinced I'll have the play come Saturday. I do know that I won't be backing ND next weekend. I'll have more on the writeup but it comes down to the ability of AFA to run the ball on ND. If Navy can do it, I'm sure that the Falcons will be able to do it. Not sure of the physche of the Irish either after giving up the 43 game winning streak against Navy. In the end I wouldn't mind seeing the line go to 3' and then buy off and hope for the middle.

Cowboys are toast imo. They're offense is horrible. They don't have a QB and everybody is packing 8 in the box on them. Utah is #1 in scoring defense in the conference and the Utes seem to be clicking on all cyclinders. Under is probably going to be a play here as well.

I've got nothing right now when it comes to the UNLV game. I'm hoping Aztec or yourself will have something. Need to look at past matchups as this is the "Underacheiver" bowl for the MWC every year.
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
Vegas - I like ND as well. Can't believe I am actually considering playing them
Click to expand...


I think alot of people are going to be on ND but the line climbing should give some clue as to what the big money is doing. Everybody thinks ND is going to get it done against some shitty AFA team. This AFA team is playing better than Navy is right now. Navy and AFA met up earlier this year and the Falcons outgained them 474-381 but lost the game. Since then Navy has been getting lit up on defense and AFA has had some good sucess. I mean Deleware and Wake dropped a combined 103 on them. So if ND can't beat Navy at this point I don't know why anybody would want to back them playing, what I feel, is the better of the two teams. Plus in the end if Navy did it you can bet the Falcons aren't going to be showed up by their military rival. Just my rant.
 
JPicks said:
I think alot of people are going to be on ND but the line climbing should give some clue as to what the big money is doing. Everybody thinks ND is going to get it done against some shitty AFA team. This AFA team is playing better than Navy is right now. Navy and AFA met up earlier this year and the Falcons outgained them 474-381 but lost the game. Since then Navy has been getting lit up on defense and AFA has had some good sucess. I mean Deleware and Wake dropped a combined 103 on them. So if ND can't beat Navy at this point I don't know why anybody would want to back them playing, what I feel, is the better of the two teams. Plus in the end if Navy did it you can bet the Falcons aren't going to be showed up by their military rival. Just my rant.
Click to expand...

Solid solid points. I remember that AF-Navy game all too well since I had AF ML. I actually think it was more of a knee-jerk reaction like "These assholes can't lose to Navy and AFA in back 2 back weeks" and I have come to the conclusion that in no way in hell will I lay points with ND. GL with AFA
 
Good points for sure jpicks ... i do think there is a nice advantage for the notre dame defense given the fact that they just played an option team the week before. Air Force does have a better defense than navy but I think Navy has the better offense. The midshipmen have basically yet to be stopped on offense this year in any game. With that said ... air force should have put up 45 last week vs army if it were not for curious holding calls everytime they got into the scoring zone. The difference i see between the air force offense and the navy offense is that air force has been stopped this year when facing good defenses. In my mind they have played against 4 decent defenses this year. They scored 20 at utah in a win in the game after johnson went out with injury ( i think they lose to a healthy johnson in that game btw ), they scored 6 at byu , they scored 20 in a win over tcu ( the tcu defense dominated them that game and i still get sick every time i have to think about that one ... maybe worst beat i have taken in fifteen years of sports betting ), and they scored 20 in a win over wyoming. Notre dame does have a decent defense and they get to play vs the option two weeks in a row , which has to help them. I think losing to navy helps the notre dame cause this week. Notre Dame is not a candidate for quitting imo. just some rambling thoughts.
 
appreciate the thoughts kyle.

The one thing I'll disagree with is that ND has a good defense. Average? maybe. Good? Disagree. They're giving up 31.4 points a game this year and while they play strong teams that's still a big #. They've given up 27 or more points in every game expect playing UCLA and their third string QB. Their offense has scored 14 or less six of their nine games. They only scored 20 points at UCLA with plus 7 turnovers.

I do appreciate the discussion though as I'm not a ND follower and do not know a ton about them other than what box scores can provide. I love the fact that I'm so aggresively defending AFA yet I'd like to play the Irish at +3.5. :)
 
One other important point concerning the ND / AFA game is that ND is coming off of a 3OT game against a team that just ran the football down their throats. The significance is that playing against a team that just continually runs the ball will wear you down physically. Second, the OT game just prelonged the physical toll, and third, now they are facing a team that does the same exact thing. I would shocked to see a ND that isnt physically exhausted against Air Force. If not in the firs half, they will certainly wear down in the 2nd half. Air Force actually can play a little defense too, this will be a tougher test than Navy was last week...
 
Hey brotha! Just thought I'd address your question about the Aztecs in your MWC thread.

I lean to SDSU this week for a few reasons...

1. This is now two weeks in a row that the SDSU defense has played rather well, especially on defense. This past Saturday, the Aztecs held Wyoming to 250 total yards and a meager 91 yards rushing. Two weeks ago, SDSU allowed only 126 yards rushing to New Mexico. Assuming that SDSU will continue their improved defensive play against a rather one dimensional (run-oriented) UNLV squad, it should be rough going for the Rebels on offense. I'm not scared of Clayton's arm, especially since he's thrown more INT's than TD's this season. RB Summers is good, but he's no world-beater. The Aztecs should be able to create problems for UNLV, as they held the Rebels to seven points last season. On the flip side, UNLV's defense isn't good, period. They haven't improved as the season has progressed, as the Rebels gave up nearly 500 yards to Colorado State a few weeks ago. If there is one team out there that SDSU might find success running the ball against, it could very well be UNLV. But when it comes down to it, O'Connell is definitely the difference in this one. SDSU has the far superior QB, and it's not even close. Great spot for SDSU to build on last week's performance. Can't really see the Aztecs coming out flat, as it's a MWC opponent, and they always seem to show up when they play UNLV.

2. SDSU has a recent history of stiffling the UNLV offense. In the past five years against the Rebels, SDSU has only given up an average of 9 points per game. Also, SDSU has dominated UNLV in the ATS battle, going 4-1 in the past five seasons.

3. At this point in the season, UNLV doesn't have much left to play for. At 2-7, UNLV is neck & neck with Colorado State at the bottom of the MWC barrell. Plus, UNLV is coming off of their bye week, so rust is a definite possibility. Not very worried about their "prep" time with the rest period. Granted, SDSU isn't far in front of UNLV in terms of wins and losses, but I think they're the better team in this one. Not to mention, this is realistically SDSU's last chance to notch a win for the season, as they face AFA, TCU, and BYU in their final three games. We will be lucky if we go 1-2 in that stretch.

That's all I got for now. Any thoughts on your end?

:cheers:
 
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metsrp86 said:
One other important point concerning the ND / AFA game is that ND is coming off of a 3OT game against a team that just ran the football down their throats. The significance is that playing against a team that just continually runs the ball will wear you down physically. Second, the OT game just prelonged the physical toll, and third, now they are facing a team that does the same exact thing. I would shocked to see a ND that isnt physically exhausted against Air Force. If not in the firs half, they will certainly wear down in the 2nd half. Air Force actually can play a little defense too, this will be a tougher test than Navy was last week...
Click to expand...

Great thoughts mets. I certainly agree with you and the double OT is a great point. Chad Hall is better than any RB that Navy has and if ND thinks they won't see anything different than Navy did they're going to be suprised.
 
Great thoughts Aztec. I really appreciate your input. I've read over the SD Union Trib a couple of times and it sounds like they're sky high down there. I'm all but convinced I'll jump on the Aztecs here. I'll have more in my writeup here in a bit, but there are some great quotes coming from Coach Long and the team.
 
BYU/TCU Write-Up

TCU/BYU (BYU -7'/46')

First off BYU is 4-0 in conference, has more than secured an invitation to a bowl game this year and are headed for another conference championship. TCU is a dissapointing 2-3 in conference and will likely have to win out to go bowling. TCU is well aware of what they must do to accomplish this:

"We were a little bit shaken after the first eight games," linebacker Jason Phillips said of TCU's 4-4 start. "We're capable of doing it [finishing 8-4]. We have to move on to these next three games, but getting a big win is good for us."
Patterson, who wondered if his team would play with passion over the final four games, admitted the Frogs got their swagger back against New Mexico. Confidence might take up a row of its own on the charter flight to Provo, Utah, later this week.


It's been forever, but people forget that this team was ranked #19th heading into Texas and was leading 10-0 at halftime. Since their 2nd half collapse they never have regained their confidence. That was up until the second half of the Utah game where they held the Utes to 61 yards of offense. Since HT of the Utah game they've given up 3 points (off of a turnover). Take a look at the rushing numbers for NMU and Utah against TCU their last two games. Their pass defense is also 11th in the country and 5th when looking at pass defense effeciency. Bottom line is this is one hell of a defense and they've been playing without MWC pre-season Tommy Blake all year. He returned last week and didn't do a whole lot except provide a nice moral boost for the team.

Joseph Turner started and played most of the downs at RB last week and evidently that was the plan to get Aaron Brown back to 100% for the game against BYU. Offensively the Horned Frogs aren't world beaters, but having a healthy Joseph Turner and Aaron Brown should be a great start. They'll need them as BYU has the #1 rush defense in the league and has yet to give up a 100 yard rusher. Their most (and only) difficult matcup on the run game was AFA and they gave up 4.2 ypc (Chad Hall was not starting at RB for AFA). The Falcons had to quickly abandon their run game as they got down 17-0.

The other intersting part of this matchup is that it's been 6 weeks since BYU has played a respectable defense. Ok a defense that tackles. They've played CSU, E. Washington, and UNLV since they threw up 31 points on NMU in which 24 of those 31 points came on turnovers. This will be a big wake up call for BYU and if the somphmore Max Hall can deliver a victory of 8+ points then I'll tip my hat.

My prediction: TCU 23 BYU 17 and TCU wins the turnover battle 4/2
 
Great stuff man..really appreciate the TCU-BYU write-up.

I tailed o nthat over last week with the Flyboys..nice to see how bad we got screwed. Ah well, was capped right just didn't happen.
 
Aztec--I'm getting there man. A nice 0-5 Tuesday night in the Donaghey league had me in no mood to talk/write about anything sports related yesterday. Took the day off from sports yesterday and it was quite refreshing. I did have time to add some plays that I highlighted above but didn't feel like bumping the thread. Hopefully I'll have time during this game tonight to get those other writeups done.

B.A.R. -- Thanks man. I'm confident about tonights game and I just need TCU to deliver. About that AFA hova....well I'm really trying to forget about it. What a screw job that was.

I haven't even done writeups and I think this thread is as good as it has been all year. Thanks to everyone that has added thoughts on all the games.
 
Utah/wyoming

Well this an easy one for me so I'll throw it up for everyone now.

UTAH/WYOMING

The first matchup that really sticks out in this one is the Wyoming offense going against the Utah defense. The Cowboy offense is ranked 8th in the conference (21.7ppg) while the Utah defense is 1st (17.8 ppg). The Cowyboys have had numerous problems lately as they seem to be getting worse. In their last 4 games they have only managed 66 points (16.5 ppg) and those games were against the 3rd, 5th, 7th and 8th ranked defenses in conference. In plain terms teams are lining up 8 in the box and daring QB Sween to be them thru the air. It was never more evident than last week when the Cowboys held a nice 21-0 lead and they were unable to run the ball and secure a win. In all they rushed 47 times for 91 yards against a defense that has been giving up 171 yards a game. At this point in the season I shouldn't have to explain that Sween isn't going to beat any team thru the air.

If the Cowboys can't control the line of scrimmage then they can't win. In their last 4 games they've averaged 1.6 ypc, 3.3 ypc, 4.5 ypc, and 1.9 ypc. Not one of those teams in ranked in the top half of rushing defense in the conference. The Utes also don't rank in the top half (6th) but they've only allowed an average of 2.9 ypc over the last five. The last 5 would be significant because that is the game QB Johnson came back for the Utes. It has everything to do with the offense being able to sustain drives and get the defense some time on the sideline.

For the Utes they have won 5 straight including wins @Louisville and @TCU. The defense held SDSU to 7 points and CSU to 3 points in two of their last three games. They've only allowed 2 drives over 55 yards in the last three weeks. In the end I'm not sure the Cowboys clear 10 points. On the offensive side of the ball the Utes are averagin 31 points with Johnson leading the offense. The Cowboys still have a very formidable defense as they are first in total defense but 5th in scoring defense. The reason for such a difference is the inability of the offense to move the ball and the fact they are 9th in turnover margin in the league.

Wyoming broke a six game losing streak to the Utes last year in Laramie and the Utes will be seeking revenge. If there are any worries about Utah being ready this week then some gurantees coming out of Laramie certainly have been pasted on lockers. These guys are crazy.

Joe Glenn took a page from his running back's book.

Then Devin Moore wrote a whole new chapter.

After the Wyoming coach guaranteed win on Saturday at Utah, Moore topped him with a lengthy list of predictions that covered team, personal and various other goals for Cowboys not including himself.

"You know what, I've been in the cold tub, been icing up and everything, and I'm telling you we are ready," Moore said. "We wouldn't want it any other way.

"It's a bad thing that we lost to San Diego State, everyone thought it was a guaranteed win, but that just shows that anything can happen. At the same time, we wouldn't want it any other way than to come out against a team that was expected to be in the top two of the conference, and we plan on winning."

Glenn offered a similar sentiment during his weekly luncheon with UW students on Monday -- a move wholly endorsed by Moore -- before slightly backing off it later.
<!-- AdSys ad not found for sports/uwsports:story_banner.2 -->
Guaranteed or not, the Cowboys desperately need a victory against the Utes.

They'll likely still need to come up with another to earn a bowl bid, but time's running out with only rivalry games with BYU and Colorado State left after this weekend.

"That was only for the students," Glenn said. "I'm not going to go on anybody's bulletin board.

"I got popping off, me and my big Irish mouth, but we're going to go play a great football game. I honest to God believe that. We have a lot to play for, and our team is not dead yet."

They might be alive, but the Cowboys' postseason chances are nearly on life support after coughing up a game that didn't appear to need a pregame proclamation.

The disastrous second half against the Aztecs essentially eliminated UW from the conference championship hunt and altered more than a few bowl projections, but it hasn't seemed to rob the Cowboys of any confidence.

At least not Moore, who predicted an interception return for a touchdown by Thorpe Award semifinalist Julius Stinson and a big day by the slightly banged-up offensive line. He also vowed to change his running style to something about as subtle as his interviews.

"I hope they try to shut this running game down," Moore said. "I am so tired of coming out of the game and letting my fellow offensive linemen and the rest of my teammates down, knowing that I didn't do my job and I left yards on the field.

"Not this week. Not this week. Not this week. I'm running straight at guys. They're going to think I'm Thunder (Wynel Seldon) out there. I'm lowering my head. I'm running straight at guys. That's what I'm going to do. We will not get shut down this game."

After the Aztecs had some success doing just that during the second-half collapse, it was another clear reminder the Cowboys have little chance of delivering any sort of promise if they have to rely on the passing game.

Even against the worst defense in the league, UW couldn't put together a consistent offensive attack without Moore and Seldon carrying the load, though that's one of several things that supposedly will be fixed by Saturday.

And this time Moore had some company out on his limb.

"(Glenn) did what? That's my man," Moore said. "My man, and we're behind it. He's pretty much pumped us up, and it's all about believing. We believe that we can do it.

"Utah, they're pretty good, but it's going to be a different story this week. I don't care if it's considered talking crazy or what, we are not getting shut down this game. I hope they come out with their hair on fire, because we are."


Utah 31 WYO 10

And just for the record I don't think the Cowboys win another game this year. I really like Coach Glenn, but if they lose to the Utes then they're season is over. They're going to lose to BYU @home and then lose their rivalry game @CSU.
 
Thanks couns, kyle. Not sure if it was a good call or not, but they cashed the ticket either way. :)
 
Should thank Patterson for not using his TO's late in the game there :D Luckily, BYU came out in the victory formation after that last timeout with 11 seconds left :D
 
BYU had just an incredible third down conversion rate in that game. Hall kept throwing it up for grabs and the receivers and tight ends kept making great plays on the ball. If I had to do over again , I would have bet tcu +8 or 7.5 ( i teased it to 14 ) or even on the moneyline which i think i saw in rebeardes thread was +250 or so ?????? They proved they cannot run at all on tcu and i think that has to be one of the best thrid down conversion rates byu could ever hope to see against that defense.

also .... incredible value in that middle youa re going for jpicks. excellent work
 
xpression syst_m said:
Should thank Patterson for not using his TO's late in the game there :D Luckily, BYU came out in the victory formation after that last timeout with 11 seconds left :D
Click to expand...

Ya it was a nailbiter for sure. I needed BYU to get a 1st inside the 10 yard line, but not score. Playing with fire. :)

vegaskyle said:
BYU had just an incredible third down conversion rate in that game. Hall kept throwing it up for grabs and the receivers and tight ends kept making great plays on the ball. If I had to do over again , I would have bet tcu +8 or 7.5 ( i teased it to 14 ) or even on the moneyline which i think i saw in rebeardes thread was +250 or so ?????? They proved they cannot run at all on tcu and i think that has to be one of the best thrid down conversion rates byu could ever hope to see against that defense.

also .... incredible value in that middle youa re going for jpicks. excellent work
Click to expand...

And for that reason I think I capped the game about right. Hall delivered a great game and the Cougars prevailed. Still though they were like 70%+ on 3rd downs which is crazy. Let's go AFA by -3. :tiphat:

Aztec4Life said:
NJ hittin TCU big bro! Can't want until tomorrow!

:cheers:
Click to expand...

You said it Aztec. Hoping for another solid performance out of O'Connell.

counselor said:
Hittin' Utah -13.5 medium

GL, JP
Click to expand...


RJ Esq said:
I like the Utes in this one too, JPicks. May join you at -13.
Click to expand...


Couns, I hope you got lucky and are grabbing the 13 with RJ. I'm not very stoked about losing some key #'s on that game, but hopefully they'll never come into play. Minus Utah getting beat badly in the turnover game this should be pretty straightforward for Utah ecspecially on the defensive side.
 
Thanks Kyle. Did you make it to the Rebels game last night? It was a pretty good game for the most part. O'Connell looks better and better by the week.
 
did not go to the game as i couldnt really organize others to go. soured by my 0-2 day anyways so i likely would not have enjoyed it as much.
 
JPicks - Just wanted to say awesome job this past Saturday! You are the kind of the MWC! Congrats bro, and keep it up!

:cheers:
 
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