MWC Week 10

JPicks

Pretty much a regular
22-19-1 +3.01 Units
Last Week 5-1 +3.95 Units

Week 10 Plays

AFA/ARMY Over 45 (-110) BM 2 Units
TCU/NMU Over 44 (-110) BM
SDSU +4 (-110)
TCU -3 (-120)

Week 9 Recaps

UNM/AFA

Story of this game was the Air Force fumbles. Looking back the Falcons would have won this game if they would have held on to the pigskin. the most damaging of the TO's was a fumble on a kickoff retun late in teh 2nd quarter. The Falcons were up 21-10 before the Lobos got a FG and then recoverd the fumble on teh kickoff. A TD pass and 2 point coversion later and the score was quickly tied at 21 heading to half. The Lobos scored 24 points off tunovers while the Falcons got 14 themselves from turnovers.

Teams were very even on total yards (320). New Mexico also did a decent job, probably the best anybody has done, against the Falcon option holding them to 212 yards (60 below season averag) on 50 carries. Only other thing noting is NM's inability to end drives with TDs. 5 drives ended with FG attempts including 4 inside the 20. That works when you are +3 in the TO department at home, but should be viewed as a concern.

UNLV/WYO

Wyoming started Ian Hetrick and that little experiment lasted for only a half. Hetrick went 5/16 for 64 yards and had no luck moving the offense. Katrick Sween started the 2nd half and quickly threw a pick 6. It was the first of two 2nd half INT's for Sween. He's their guy moving forward in what looks like a less of two evils. Wyoming rush attack was effective, but certainly not spectacular. Devin Moore rushed 24 times for 86 yards in what has to be described as dissapointing against the 8th ranked rushing defense in the conference. Wyoming is going to have to have a good running game down the stretch if they plan on winning any gamees.

The Rebles look like they've found a QB in Omar Clayton, but unfortunately they'll probably be looking for a new head coach soon. It's painful to read comments from Rebel fans about the whole situation. Same old stuff for the rebels; 14 penalities/115 yards and a lack of discipline all over the field. They were in the game until the final minute but couldn't score late against the WYO defense. Clayton was 21/39 for 223 yards 1 TD 2 INTS and the Cowboys did a great job not letting him out of the pocket (135 rushing yards prior week). Overall the Rebels ran the ball 41 times for 43 yards. :seeya:

Utah/CSU

The Utes got off to a great start and never looked back. Two touchdowns on their first two drives all but ended any chance of the Rams thinking they were going to build on their first win of the year. Story of the game was in the rushing game as it usually is in the MWC. Utah ran the ball 49 times for 322 yards (6.6 ypc) while the Rams ran for 135 yards on 34 carries (4.0 ypc). I can't really express how impressed I am with the Utah defense above all else. The Rams entered the game as the 3rd best offense in the league and could only muster 3 points at home while winning the turnover battle 2-1. The Utah defense has only given up two TD's over the last 3 weeks and has held their last three opponents under 275 yards of offense as well. Gartell Johnson had as good a game as anybody for the Rams as he ran for 95 yards on 17 carries. Somewhat aided by a 44 yard run on his first carry. He looks like a really solid back


And on to week 10

CSU/BYU

Unga should have a huge day as the Rams are really struggling to stop any decent rushing attack. I still don't see how the line is at 21. The Rams may or may not give up on the season, but if one thing is consistent in the MWC it's that every team gets up to beat BYU. I'm 90% sure I'll be on the Rams here but I want to see some quotes out of the CSU camp about the upcoming game and last weeks game before I pull the trigger. BYU has basically had the last three weeks off as they had a BYE, Eastern Washington, and the cancelled game with the Aztecs.

ARMY/AFA

From what I've reasearched about Army it seems they can't stop anybody from running.

G. TECH 49 rushes for 308 yards 6.3 ypc
C. Michigan 30 rushes for 251 yards 8.1 ypc
Tulane 45 rushes for 247 yards 5.5 ypc
BC 37 rushes 202 yards 5.5 ypc

Bad recipe for facing the Falcons. I'll be shocked if they don't clear 300 rushing yards and expect them to be in the high 300's. Expecting a score similar to the CSU game (45-21). Haven't pulled the trigger on 16.5 but I'm definitely leaning that way. AFA won last year 47-3. 16-2 vs Army and they've held them to 7 points or less 11 times accoring to Phil Steele's magazine.

NMU/TCU

Haven't done a ton of research on this one. Tommy Blake, pre-season defensive player of the year, should be back for the Frogs and he'd be a huge lift. Line opened with TCU being a 4 point favorite. Seems about right and I expect a pretty close contest.

WYO/SDSU

Wyoming opened as a 4 point favorite. I don't really know who would want to lay points with them on the road, but I won't be one of them. Aztecs or pass for me here. If SDSU can manage 20 points they'll probably win this game SU. They've been pretty strong against the run and that's Wyoming's only offense. Probably be playing the Aztecs and may play the 1st half under/2nd half over again as it seems to be a pretty strong trend for Wyoming games.



Utah, UNLV both on BYEs
 
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Lean your way on all of them as of now. GL this week JPicks.

AF has been gradually going down since the open. Hoping it gets down into the 15 area.
 
I am all over TCU in this spot, Jpicks.

Had this game circled as one that I wanted to bet before the year started, and it has worked out even better than I expected with this tiny number. Cannot wait for your thoughts on this one later in the week. It is my favorite mountain west game of the year so far.
 
Do you remember that air force / army game last year ?? army looked like the keystone cops !!! I think most of air forces points came in one short span , if i am remembering right. major revenge spot for army after that humiliation but jpicks rush defense stats on army side of ball is not a recipe for sucess vs falcons.

damn ... i love mwc football
 
DMoney-- Good to hear man. I'd love to see the Falcon line drop to the 14 range but I think that's a dream.

Kyle--What about the TCU game has had you salivating for the entire season? I like the Frogs just based on how this year has gone, but really haven't thought of anything that would have made me circle this game. Interested to hear your thoughts on that one.

And for the AFA/ARMY game it is probably my least favorite of the spreads, but I don't think Army is good enough to get revenge after last years drubbing. They gave up 36 points in the 2ND quarter. Yep one quarter. I'm sure the Falcons get 35 it's just a matter of Army scoring 10 or 21. That I'm not sure about and need to look at some more.
 
First two plays of the week are totals:

AFA/ARMY Over 45 (-110) BM
TCU/NMU Over 44 (-110) BM
 
Hey bro! First off, congrats on a stellar Week 9...way to get back on track in a big way! Really liking both of your totals plays, and I'll definitely be joining you on the Army/AFA OVER.

Not sure if I like the Aztecs this week, though I'm definitely not condoning a WYO play. You have to wonder what the mindset of my Aztecs will be like, coming off a devastating, last second loss to NM (though it has been two weeks since that game). Not to mention the fires that ravaged all of San Diego. Having said that, I wish you the best of luck bro. I may join you on this yet. Any chance I can get you to talk me into a play on my own squad? LOL

Seriously though...the Aztecs need SOMEBODY to step up in the running game. Bornes is just hit or miss week in and week out, and Henderson has been very lack-luster this season. I'm sour on O'Connell after that fumble at the tail end of the NM game...all he had to do was slide. O'Connell had the first down, but just kept going. Still puzzled by that whole sequence.

Again, GL this week bro! :cheers:
 
Hey bro! First off, congrats on a stellar Week 9...way to get back on track in a big way! Really liking both of your totals plays, and I'll definitely be joining you on the Army/AFA OVER.

Not sure if I like the Aztecs this week, though I'm definitely not condoning a WYO play. You have to wonder what the mindset of my Aztecs will be like, coming off a devastating, last second loss to NM (though it has been two weeks since that game). Not to mention the fires that ravaged all of San Diego. Having said that, I wish you the best of luck bro. I may join you on this yet. Any chance I can get you to talk me into a play on my own squad? LOL

Seriously though...the Aztecs need SOMEBODY to step up in the running game. Bornes is just hit or miss week in and week out, and Henderson has been very lack-luster this season. I'm sour on O'Connell after that fumble at the tail end of the NM game...all he had to do was slide. O'Connell had the first down, but just kept going. Still puzzled by that whole sequence.

Again, GL this week bro! :cheers:

Great thoughts man. You're more than welcome to contribute to this thread every week. Not sure I'm going to be able to talk you into playing the Aztecs but I'll most likely be on them. The last second loss combined with the fires probably brought this team together if anything. At least that's what I'm hoping for. Great quote from O'Connell.

I've had 10 guys come up to me since the end of the game telling me that we're right there, and that means a lot to me. It speaks volumes about the chemistry and character that we have.”
– QB Kevin O'Connell

More important than whether they won or loss it looks like O'Connell can be the QB to lead them and that speaks volumes for the Aztecs. Probably not going to be able to run much on the Cowboys either as nobody but the Falcons have pulled it off so far. The number one reason I'll most likely be on the Aztecs is turnovers. While the Aztecs have turned the ball over a bit this year I still think they win the turnover battle against the Cowboys. Sween is a turnover machine (14 ints this year) and in a low scoring game on the road I think it's to much to ask them to cover 4 points on the road. May take a stab at the ML, but certainly leaning towards the points.

Not sure that'll be enough to talk you into a play on them, but I'm limiting myself with choices by only playing one league. Either way asking a team that is averaging 14 points a game over their last three games to cover points on the road when they have a QB who loves throwing the ball to the other team is silly.
 
Great thoughts man. You're more than welcome to contribute to this thread every week. Not sure I'm going to be able to talk you into playing the Aztecs but I'll most likely be on them. The last second loss combined with the fires probably brought this team together if anything. At least that's what I'm hoping for. Great quote from O'Connell.

I've had 10 guys come up to me since the end of the game telling me that we're right there, and that means a lot to me. It speaks volumes about the chemistry and character that we have.”
– QB Kevin O'Connell

More important than whether they won or loss it looks like O'Connell can be the QB to lead them and that speaks volumes for the Aztecs. Probably not going to be able to run much on the Cowboys either as nobody but the Falcons have pulled it off so far. The number one reason I'll most likely be on the Aztecs is turnovers. While the Aztecs have turned the ball over a bit this year I still think they win the turnover battle against the Cowboys. Sween is a turnover machine (14 ints this year) and in a low scoring game on the road I think it's to much to ask them to cover 4 points on the road. May take a stab at the ML, but certainly leaning towards the points.

Not sure that'll be enough to talk you into a play on them, but I'm limiting myself with choices by only playing one league. Either way asking a team that is averaging 14 points a game over their last three games to cover points on the road when they have a QB who loves throwing the ball to the other team is silly.

Very true bro. One thing we do know...O'Connell is definitely smarter with the football than Sween. I'm loving that quote you posted...shows that he's a good leader.

BTW...also forgot to give you props on a great call on Utah last week. I was leaning to the Utes, but I didn't pull the trigger until reading your thoughts. Anyhow...thanks bro. I'm hitting the sack right now. I'll definitely post some more MWC babble later in the week.
 
Falcons are healthy

Senior tailbacks, Bird, Monson set
By JAKE SCHALLER THE GAZETTE
With all three of his senior tailbacks taking handoffs, his rotation of tackles no longer depleted and plenty of defensive linemen subbing in and out of drills, Air Force coach Troy Calhoun was pleased with the physical condition of his team Tuesday.

“I think we’re as healthy probably by and large for this game as we’ve been ever since the middle of September,” Calhoun said. “I think we’re quite healthy.”

Senior cornerback Carson Bird and senior tackle Chris Monson, both of whom missed last Thursday’s game against New Mexico because of a stomach flu, will be ready to play this week against Army. And, barring any setbacks this week, Calhoun will have all three of his senior tailbacks ready for a game for just the second time this year.

“Kip (McCarthy) seems to be fine, Chad Smith seems to be fine and Jimmy (Ollis), too,” Calhoun said. “I don’t know how many snaps they’ll get total, but they’ll be live bullets when they do go.”



I'm amazed that this O/U hasn't moved off of 45. I'm going back for seconds.

AFA/ARMY Over 45
 
Hilarious quote from Rocky Long, New Mexico head coach, when asked what was most impressive about his team.


"That we are a team. Right now it seems like whenever the defense
needs to step up, it steps up, and when the offense needs to step up,
it steps up, and we do just enough to win. If I was an opposing coach
watching our film I wouldn't be very impressed with us. Other than you
look at our record and say, `How the heck are those guys 6-2?' That's
just being brutally honest. So the best part of our team is that we
are a team. We're not anything special. Athletically we're not
anything special. We just play together and we play hard."
 
CHEYENNE - The University of Wyoming will experience more than just a football game Saturday at San Diego State.

In the wake of wildfires in the San Diego and southern California area, the host Aztecs have several special events planned for the game, which kicks off at 7 p.m. from Qualcomm Stadium.

"We're playing this game for the firefighters of San Diego and for the people who lost their homes," San Diego State coach Chuck Long said during Tuesday's Mountain West Conference coaches teleconference.

"People are in a mending mode right now. Sports are always a good diversion and helpful.

"My neighbor is a firefighter, and he said the best thing for San Diego right now are the (NFL's San Diego) Chargers and the Aztecs. We've taken that to heart, and I believe it will be a motivated week for us."

The school announced that field-level tickets will be $5 to the general public, and the athletics department will donate more than 4,000 tickets to San Diego County agencies and military members who helped in fire relief efforts.

UW (5-3 overall, 2-2 MWC) is a 31/2-point favorite, but it has lost five straight games at San Diego State dating back to 1996.

A win will make the Cowboys bowl eligible for the third time in the last four years.

Bad no-call

After his team's 29-24 home win against UNLV last Saturday, UW coach Joe Glenn was noticeably upset at one of the officials after the game as he walked toward midfield to shake hands with UNLV coach Mike Sanford.

Glenn said he was upset about a no-call in the second half when freshman receiver David Leonard broke free on a pass play and a UNLV defender grabbed the back of his jersey downfield.

No penalty was called, even though officials penalized both teams 25 times for a total of 233 yards.

"I think 16,000 people (in the stadium) saw it," Glenn said. "Fortunately for us, our quarterback was able to escape a sack and make a throw to get a first down, and we ended up scoring a touchdown on that drive."

Glenn added that he looked at the film the following day and thought the officials called a good game.

Sanford speaks

UNLV coach Mike Sanford was asked what he thought of UW's defense.

The Cowboys held the Rebels to 266 yards of offense, 3.3 yards per play, had 10 tackles for loss - including seven quarterback sacks - and intercepted two passes.

UW also allowed 22 points. Seven of UNLV's points came on a defensive touchdown.

"They're a real good defense," Sanford said. "They are sixth in the country in total defense, which says something about them.

"I believe they are susceptible against the passing game. If people can protect the quarterback and get the ball off against them, people can move the football on them."

UNLV threw for 223 yards against UW. The Pokes lead the MWC and are 12th nationally in pass defense (178.6 yards per game)

Injury report

Senior cornerback Michael Medina and junior center Tim Bond both injured knees against UNLV. When asked about their status this week, Glenn said, "They're progressing."

If Medina can't play, senior Troy Lewis will get the start.

If Bond is out, sophomore Russ Arnold will move from right guard to center and sophomore Zack Kennedy will play guard. That was the scenario against UNLV
 
jpicks - love the weekly thread. not much I was interested in the MWC this week but damn that AF over looks really nice. How many you think AF scores themselves? 40?
 
Wow...great news on the AFA backfield! Loving that OVER play now.

Yep. I hesitate to say it but I think this would qualify as my favorite play this year.

jpicks - love the weekly thread. not much I was interested in the MWC this week but damn that AF over looks really nice. How many you think AF scores themselves? 40?

I'm expecting them to get 38. They will have 300 yards of rushing at a minimum and hopefully they'll get a short field off of a couple of turnovers which should result in easy points. Army turns the ball over an average of 2.5 times a game and I'm just hoping those turnovers are on the wrong side of the field. These two teams have combined for an average of 52 points a game over their last 5 meetings and AFA's offense is better this year than 3 of the last 5 years while Army isn't stopping anybody lately. Worst case I see this being a 31-20 game similar to the Navy/AFA game.
 
Adding:

SDSU +4 (-110)

I can also see myself playing the ML come Saturday night if everything else goes as planned.
 
No play on CSU after this:


Even the Rams, who have remained remarkably upbeat through the turmoil, defending beloved coach Sonny Lubick at every turn, finally looked spent this week in practice. They were forced to swallow a 27-3 pounding by Utah last week in half-empty Hughes Stadium in a game they thought they could win. Now, they have to face league-leading BYU in a game that could make an already painful season downright excruciating.
"I think every great athlete is self-motivated, and a lot of that comes down to playing for each other," senior defensive tackle Erik Sandie said.
Freshman linebacker Ricky Brewer agreed. "It hurts your pride to be going through something like this," he said. "When you lose as many times as we have, it's easy to just quit. But that's when you have to look around you and start playing for the guy next to you and the guy next to him. Really, that's all we can do right now."

Still don't think lay 21 with Hall and the Cougars is a great plan.



Hoped to get TCU -3 but it never quite made it there. Had a +3.5 (-113) on Pinny but none of the books ever moved down to 3. So I'll pay the 20c.

TCU -3 (-120) BM


New Mexico has been more lucky than anything else recently. Frogs get Blake back and I expect it to be a BIG emotional lift. Taking the more talented home team here.
 
That ref may have single handedly screwed us out of hitting the OVER. We pretty much need a miracle at this point.
 
That ref may have single handedly screwed us out of hitting the OVER. We pretty much need a miracle at this point.

No shit. I wish this game hadn't been on tv, was expecting a normal MVC game and out of no where comes the crooked ACC ref out of no where :moose:
 
That ref may have single handedly screwed us out of hitting the OVER. We pretty much need a miracle at this point.


exact quote I had before the game:

no please don't. i feel great about it, and I'll call it a fix if I lose. You said last night you were taking it easy on the games today so I'd rather you didn't play my suggestion big. I thought maybe I was high in the night so I went and looked at what some AFA Falcons fan's thought the score might be. Maybe I'm just square on this one.

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s<WBR>=238&f=1553&t=982859#s=238&f<WBR>=1553&t=1320348

After watching the game I have no doubt something wasn't right with this game. Random holding calls when AFA was driving. Keep in mind that AFA has had 32 penalities in 9 games prior to today. Well they had 8 today. I'll leave it at that.
 
Are you kidding me with this NMU team? They can't get a score to help with the over? What?

I'm really beginning to HATE the MWC, man...
 
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